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KU

Kansas 33 at Duke 52

DUKE
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadKU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:12 · Porter Wilson punt for 40 yds , Kwamie Lassiter II returns for no gain to the Kans 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 70Pregame prior+24.0Home team on offense−1.9Score differential−0.7Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:04: Devin Neal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK) — KU win probability +9.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 12:48: Jacob Borcila 29 yd FG GOOD — KU win probability +6.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: KU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:29: Jordan Waters run for 4 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +10.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:37: Gunnar Holmberg run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +10.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:38: Gunnar Holmberg run for 3 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +6.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6KU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 9:39KU 4th & 13 at DUKE 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:17KU 4th & 5 at DUKE 49, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:35DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:05KU 4th & 19 at DUKE 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:53DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.4%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:12DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:17KU 4th & 10 at KU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:04KU 4th & 1 at DUKE 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    21.3%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−5.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:25DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:48KU 4th & 8 at DUKE 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    25.0%−8.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:28KU 4th & 2 at KU 39, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:36KU 4th & 3 at KU 37, down 15
    Close callPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:13DUKE 4th & 2 at KU 12, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%−0.5
    86% to make
    Punt
    92.3%−3.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:58KU 4th & 1 at DUKE 15, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:34KU 4th & 1 at DUKE 1, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−1.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:47DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 28, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6KU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 14:53KU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:15DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:20KU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:24DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:04KU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:29DUKE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:37DUKE Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:38DUKE Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:42KU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    7.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    7.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:23DUKE Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1INT
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:0285% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
85.1%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 12 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
85.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
85.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 6 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
85.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
85.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 3 yds to the Kans 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+8
85.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds to the Kans 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
85.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 13 yds to the Kans 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
85.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Kans 23Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
84.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 2FG
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:1916% → 17%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
84.0%
Devin Neal run for 2 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-15
84.0%
Neal,Devin rush for 5 yards gain to the DUK10 (Young IV,Lummie; Mausi,Dorian) PENALTY KAN Clipping (Cabeldue,Bryce) 15 yards from DUK15 to DUK30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 23
OPP 30
+2
84.1%
Devin Neal run for 2 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 21
OPP 28
+8
84.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 8 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 9:39
4TH & 13
OPP 20
+37
83.4%
Jacob Borcila 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:0083% → 83%
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
83.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
83.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 9:39
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+7
83.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 7 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
83.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 5 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 9:39
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+4
83.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 7:39
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+57
82.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 57 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:1818% → 18%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
82.4%
DUKE Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Shaka Heyward) to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
82.1%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Lawrence ArnoldSimilar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
82.2%
Devin Neal run for 5 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
82.1%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Luke GrimmSimilar
Q1 6:17
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
81.9%
Reis Vernon punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 2:4282% → 80%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
81.8%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the Duke 13Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
81.8%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 6 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+13
81.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Eli Pancol for 13 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
81.9%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+4
82.4%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 4 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
82.3%
Waters,Jordan rush for 16 yards gain to the KAN41 (Gilliom,Jason), out of bounds PENALTY DUK Holding (Van Lynn,Carson) 10 yards from DUK43 to DUK33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+7
81.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 7 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
81.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 13
OWN 40
0
81.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+24
80.1%
Porter Wilson punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kans 32 , Kwamie Lassiter II returns for 24 yds to the Kans 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 6FG
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:3019% → 18%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+45
80.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 45 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-17
79.8%
Jason Bean sacked by Ben Frye for a loss of 17 yards to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 27
OPP 40
+7
80.4%
Jason Bean run for 7 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 20
OPP 33
+1
80.6%
Jason Bean run for 1 yd to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 19
OPP 32
+50
82.1%
Jacob Borcila 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · -7 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Duke 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 18 yds · 1:0720% → 22%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
80.4%
Devin Neal run for no gain to the Duke 18Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
80.1%
Devin Neal run for 2 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 12
OPP 20
+20
77.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Torry Locklin for 20 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3879% → 82%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.8%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.7%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
78.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
78.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
79.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jordan Waters for 19 yds to the Kans 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
80.0%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the Kans 40Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+14
79.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 14 yds to the Kans 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
80.4%
Jordan Waters run for 15 yds to the Kans 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-10
79.2%
Durant,Mataeo rush for 11 yards gain to the KAN00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 11:37 PENALTY DUK Holding (Marwede,Jake) 10 yards from KAN11 to KAN21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:37
1ST & 20
OPP 21
+17
79.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 17 yds to the Kans 4Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
81.8%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 4 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5520% → 26%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
80.5%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 21 yds to the Kans 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
79.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 8 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+10
79.0%
Devin Neal run for 10 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
79.1%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Trevor WilsonSimilar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+36
73.9%
Torry Locklin run for 36 yds for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0876% → 73%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
75.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q2 9:20
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
74.9%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 1 yd to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 8:12
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
73.1%
Porter Wilson punt for 40 yds , Kwamie Lassiter II returns for no gain to the Kans 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5527% → 26%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
73.5%
Devin Neal run for 5 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
73.1%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Trevor WilsonSimilar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 5
OWN 37
-5
73.6%
PENALTY KAN False Start (Cabeldue,Bryce) 5 yards from KAN37 to KAN32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
74.6%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Kwamie Lassiter IISimilar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
74.4%
Reis Vernon punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 0:5374% → 82%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+39
74.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Cole Finney for 39 yds to the Kans 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
76.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Kans 26Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+26
81.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 26 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2021% → 32%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
79.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 8 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
78.3%
Torry Locklin run for 1 yd to the Kans 34Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
78.7%
Jason Bean run for 4 yds to the Kans 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
78.4%
Jason Bean run for 9 yds to the Kans 47Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
77.4%
Devin Neal run for 4 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+42
77.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 42 yds to the Duke 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
76.6%
Jason Bean run for 2 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
76.6%
Devin Neal run for 1 yd to the Duke 8Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
77.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 7 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.6%
Devin Neal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:3970% → 68%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.4%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 10 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
70.7%
Gunnar Holmberg run for no gain to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
68.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+6
67.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+1
67.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 46 yds , Kwamie Lassiter II returns for 1 yd to the Kans 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-1
67.2%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kans 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 17FG
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:0833% → 41%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+62
67.3%
Devin Neal run for 62 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
63.9%
Torry Locklin run for 1 yd to the Duke 14Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 11
OPP 14
0
64.3%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+3
65.4%
Devin Neal run for 3 yds to the Duke 11Similar
Q3 12:48
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
58.6%
Jacob Borcila 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1962% → 77%
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
63.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
62.5%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 6 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+53
63.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 53 yds to the Kans 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
66.6%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the Kans 4Similar
Q3 12:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
66.6%
Gunnar Holmberg run for no gain to the Kans 4Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.4%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5726% → 26%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
74.0%
Devin Neal run for 2 yds to the Kans 33Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+6
73.8%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 6 yds to the Kans 39Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 2
OWN 39
0
72.5%
Devin Neal run for no gain to the Kans 39Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 2
OWN 39
0
74.1%
Reis Vernon punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
5 plays · 67 yds · 1:5175% → 87%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+48
74.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 48 yds to the Kans 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
78.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Kans 17Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+5
78.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 5 yds to the Kans 12Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+11
76.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 11 yds to the Kans 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.0%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 21INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2816% → 15%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.5%
Jason Bean run for 3 yds to the Kans 28Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
84.3%
Torry Locklin run for 2 yds to the Kans 30Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
84.8%
Jason Bean pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:3188% → 95%
Q3 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
88.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Kans 3Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.6%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 3 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:578% → 7%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
91.8%
Devin Neal run for 7 yds to the Kans 24Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+6
91.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 6 yds to the Kans 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
91.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 2 yds to the Kans 32Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
91.4%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Trevor KardellSimilar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+5
92.0%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 5 yds to the Kans 37Similar
Q3 1:36
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
93.1%
Reis Vernon punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Scott Boylan at the Duke 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24FG
15 plays · 44 yds · 5:2395% → 97%
Q3 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.1%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 1:36
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
95.0%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 4 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 1:36
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+6
94.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 6 yds to the Kans 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
95.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Kans 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
95.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+14
95.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 14 yds to the Kans 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
95.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 6 yds to the Kans 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 25
-3
95.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 7 yds to the Kans 27 Mataeo Durant fumbled, forced by Kenny Logan Jr., recovered by Duke DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jontavis Robertson) to the Kans 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+7
95.5%
Jordan Waters run for 7 yds to the Kans 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
95.5%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 6 yds to the Kans 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+2
95.5%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Kans 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 12
-5
95.4%
Waters,Jordan rush for 2 yards gain to the KAN10 (Johnson,Kyron; Caldwell,Kenean) PENALTY DUK Illegal Formation 5 yards from KAN12 to KAN17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+5
95.4%
Jordan Waters run for 5 yds to the Kans 12Similar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+30
97.4%
Charlie Ham 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:314% → 8%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.5%
Devin Neal run for 2 yds to the Kans 27Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
96.4%
Jason Bean run for 9 yds to the Kans 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
96.3%
Devin Neal run for 3 yds to the Kans 39Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
96.3%
Torry Locklin run for no gain to the Kans 39Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+61
91.9%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 61 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1995% → 99%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
94.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
94.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 9 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
95.9%
Jordan Waters run for 13 yds to the Kans 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
96.0%
Jordan Waters run for 2 yds to the Kans 43Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+15
95.9%
KANSAS Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the Kans 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
95.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Kans 18Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+5
95.9%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 5 yds to the Kans 13Similar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+13
99.4%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 13 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
Q4 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
99.4%
PENALTY DUK UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bobo,Jake) 15 yards from KAN03 to KAN18. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 27INT
17 plays · 64 yds · 2:492% → 2%
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
97.8%
Torry Locklin run for 9 yds to the Kans 44Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+13
97.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 13 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+19
97.6%
Jason Bean pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 19 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
97.1%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 9 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
97.1%
Jason Bean pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:23
3RD & 1
OPP 15
0
97.3%
Torry Locklin run for no gain to the Duke 15Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+1
97.5%
Jason Bean run for 1 yd to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
97.4%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Trevor WilsonSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+10
97.4%
Jason Bean run for 10 yds to the Duke 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
97.4%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Trevor WilsonSimilar
Q4 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-15
97.4%
Bean,Jason pass complete to Fairchild,Mason for 4 yards to the DUK00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 03:17 PENALTY KAN Pass Interference (Fallin,Miles) 15 yards from DUK04 to DUK19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+4
97.6%
Jason Bean run for 4 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+14
98.2%
Jason Bean pass complete to Lawrence Arnold for 14 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q4 2:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.1%
Jason Bean pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:47100% → 100%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.7%
Jaylen Coleman run for 2 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 2:34
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
99.7%
Jordan Moore run for 6 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
99.8%
Jordan Moore run for no gain to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
99.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kwamie Lassiter II at the Kans 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KUDrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · 53 yds · 0:471% → 1%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
99.4%
Jason Bean pass complete to Amauri Pesek-Hickson for 14 yds to the Kans 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
99.4%
Jason Bean run for 12 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.3%
Jason Bean pass incomplete to Trevor WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
99.3%
Jason Bean pass complete to Kwamie Lassiter II for 15 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
99.2%
Jason Bean run for 4 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+8
99.2%
Jason Bean run for 8 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:29
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)
+10.8
TD · Q3 6:37
Gunnar Holmberg run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q2 1:04
Devin Neal run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob Borcila KICK)
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com