2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadBC aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreBC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:14 · Dennis Grosel run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Lytton KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q1 0:00: TEAM pass complete to Zay Flowers for 52 yds to the Temp 19 for a 1ST down — TEM win probability +3.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:48: Travis Levy run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Lytton KICK) — BC win probability +7.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 5:06: Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 3 yds to the BC 21 — BC win probability +3.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- FG · Q4 13:09: Rory Bell 32 yd FG GOOD — TEM win probability +2.3 pts (now 5%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:14: Dennis Grosel run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Lytton KICK) — BC win probability +1.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 11BC made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 11:56TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 31, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snapGo for it18.4%−0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.5%average punt
- Q1 8:35TEM 4th & 12 at TEM 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snapGo for it18.8%−0.323% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%average punt
- Q2 12:58TEM 4th & 1 at TEM 34, down 14Close callPunted · 17.8% before the snapGo for it18.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.7%−0.5average punt
- Q2 11:52BC 4th & 14 at BC 14, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.9% before the snapGo for it81.7%−1.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call83.4%average punt
- Q2 8:20TEM 4th & 3 at BC 34, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.6%53% to convertField goal17.0%−0.747% to makePunt16.6%−1.0average punt
- Q2 4:42BC 4th & 11 at TEM 43, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snapGo for it83.8%−<0.127% to convertField goal83.5%−0.328% to makePuntTheir call83.9%average punt
- Q2 3:10TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 19, down 14Close callPunted · 15.7% before the snapGo for it15.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.5%−0.2average punt
- Q3 12:55TEM 4th & 16 at TEM 31, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snapGo for it8.2%−1.415% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.6%average punt
- Q3 11:06BC 4th & 8 at BC 30, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snapGo for it94.1%−0.433% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.5%average punt
- Q3 5:06TEM 4th & 6 at BC 24, down 21Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.0%−0.139% to convertField goal5.1%68% to makePunt1.0%−4.0average punt
- Q3 3:30BC 4th & 7 at BC 24, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%average punt
- Q3 2:46TEM 4th & 1 at BC 21, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.6%71% to convertField goal3.1%−1.474% to makePunt-1.3%−5.8average punt
- Q4 13:09TEM 4th & 15 at BC 15, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.7% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.815% to convertField goalTheir call2.7%83% to makePunt0.4%−2.3average punt
- Q4 10:47BC 4th & 4 at BC 28, up 18Close callPunted · 96.3% before the snapGo for it96.6%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.4%−0.2average punt
- Q4 8:48TEM 4th & 13 at TEM 17, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.619% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q4 4:14BC 4th & 1 at TEM 2, up 18Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.1%60% to convertField goal97.4%−0.794% to makePunt95.8%−2.3average punt
- Q4 0:47TEM 4th & 5 at BC 34, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−0.142% to convertField goal0.3%47% to makePunt0.2%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 13:21BC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.8%97% to makeGo for two81.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:36BC Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.7%97% to makeGo for two81.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:48BC Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.5%97% to makeGo for two89.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:14BC Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBCDrive 1TD6 plays · 29 yds · 15:0088% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
11.6%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Zay Flowers for 10 yds to the Temp 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
12.0%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaden Williams for 19 yds for a TD (Connor Lytton KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+52
15.3%
TEAM pass complete to Zay Flowers for 52 yds to the Temp 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+52
15.3%
TEAM pass complete to Zay Flowers for 52 yds to the Temp 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2512% → 12%
BCDrive 3INT1 play · 3 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 2:1913% → 13%
Q1 8:35
4TH & 12
OWN 34
+14
13.1%
Adam Barry punt for 58 yds , Travis Levy returns for 14 yds to the BC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 5TD11 plays · 78 yds · 7:5987% → 88%
Q1 8:35
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-8
13.1%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Jaden Williams for 2 yds to the BC 29 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BC 19Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+10
13.3%
GROSEL, Dennis sacked for a loss of 1 yard at the BSC18 (WALKER, Manny). PENALTY TEM Holding on TYLER, Amir enforced 10 yards from the BSC19 to the BSC29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
12.9%
Dennis Grosel pass complete to Joey Luchetti for 6 yds to the Temp 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0213% → 13%
Q2 12:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+48
13.2%
Adam Barry punt for 48 yds , Travis Levy returns for 48 yds to the Temp 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 7PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0688% → 87%
Q2 11:52
4TH & 14
OWN 14
-5
12.8%
Grant Carlson punt for 59 yds , Jadan Blue returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Temp 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8DOWNS9 plays · 46 yds · 3:3213% → 14%
Q2 11:52
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+15
13.2%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Personal Foul (TJ Rayam) to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 9PUNT9 plays · 25 yds · 3:3888% → 88%
Q2 8:20
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+5
12.1%
GROSEL, Dennis sacked for a loss of 5 yards at the BSC37 (WILSON, Kobe). PENALTY TEM Offsides on WALKER, Manny enforced 5 yards from the BSC42 to the BSC47 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
12.3%
Grant Carlson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jadan Blue at the Temp 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3213% → 13%
BCDrive 11TD4 plays · 57 yds · 2:2288% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:058% → 7%
BCDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4995% → 95%
Q3 11:06
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+11
4.7%
Grant Carlson punt for 62 yds , Jadan Blue returns for 11 yds to the Temp 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15DOWNS12 plays · 60 yds · 6:007% → 5%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
7.1%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 6 yds to the Temp 25Similar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+4
7.2%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 4 yds to the Temp 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+29
7.4%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Darius Pittman for 29 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3697% → 97%
TEMDrive 17FG14 plays · 47 yds · 4:374% → 5%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+32
3.7%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jadan Blue for 32 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-5
3.8%
TEMPLE Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on NIESE, Michael enforced (-5 Yards) to the BC 25Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 25
+18
3.1%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Amad Anderson Jr. for 18 yds to the BC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
3.1%
Justin Lynch sacked by Khris Banks and Brandon Barlow for 0 yards to the BC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:1697% → 97%
Q4 10:47
4TH & 4
OWN 28
-2
3.2%
Grant Carlson punt for 50 yds , Jadan Blue returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 1:594% → 4%
Q4 10:47
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
3.7%
Justin Lynch sacked by Donovan Ezeiruaku for 0 yards to the Temp 10Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 20
OWN 10
+7
3.7%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Kadas Reams for 7 yds to the Temp 17Similar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+1
3.5%
Adam Barry punt for 42 yds , Travis Levy returns for 1 yd to the BC 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20DOWNS TD10 plays · 58 yds · 4:3498% → 100%
Q4 7:03
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+10
2.0%
TEMPLE Penalty, Face mask (10 yards) (Keyshawn Paul) to the Temp 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
2.0%
SINKFIELD, Alec rush up the middle for a gain of 5 yards to the TEM6 (TYLER, Amir;RIGBY, Yvandy). PENALTY TEM Offsides on BAGS, Nick enforced 5 yards from the TEM11 to the TEM6. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21DOWNS12 plays · 41 yds · 3:270% → 0%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
0.2%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jose Barbon for 13 yds to the Temp 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
0.2%
LYNCH, Justin pass to the left complete for 10 yards to BLUE, Jadan caught at the TEM40 and advanced to the TEM48 (MAITRE, Jason), out of bounds. PENALTY TEM Holding on ANDERSON JR., Amad enforced 10 yards from the TEM38 to the TEM28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+14
0.2%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Jose Barbon for 14 yds to the Temp 46Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+3
0.2%
Justin Lynch pass complete to Darius Pittman for 3 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
0.2%
Justin Lynch pass incomplete TEMPLE Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Holding on MOORE, Isaac ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:48
Travis Levy run for 2 yds for a TD (Connor Lytton KICK)
-7
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:06
Justin Lynch pass complete to Randle Jones for 3 yds to the BC 21
-3.8
KEY PLAY · Q1 0:00
TEAM pass complete to Zay Flowers for 52 yds to the Temp 19 for a 1ST down
+3.3