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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadUALB aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreUALB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Jarveon Howard run for 11 yds to the Alban 5 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:48: Christian Lewis 25 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Burns Kick) — UALB win probability +1.5 pts (now 9%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q1 2:07: Tommy DeVito pass complete to Damien Alford for 73 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +1.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- FG · Q2 12:30: Andre Szmyt 48 yd FG GOOD — SYR win probability +1.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:50: Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 72 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +2.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:51: Sean Tucker run for 12 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK) — SYR win probability +2.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UALB made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 11:15SYR 4th & 3 at UALB 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.5%51% to convertField goal90.4%−<0.174% to makePunt90.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 11:15SYR 4th & 3 at UALB 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.5%51% to convertField goal90.4%−<0.174% to makePunt90.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 8:29UALB 4th & 3 at UALB 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snapGo for it9.5%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%average punt
- Q1 3:21UALB 4th & 3 at SYR 20, down 14Close callKicked a field goal · 9.0% before the snapGo for it9.0%51% to convertField goalTheir call8.9%−0.175% to makePunt7.5%−1.5average punt
- Q2 14:53UALB 4th & 3 at UALB 32, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snapGo for it10.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q2 12:30SYR 4th & 12 at UALB 31, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snapGo for it89.4%−0.423% to convertField goalTheir call89.8%54% to makePunt89.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 10:03UALB 4th & 15 at UALB 7, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snapGo for it7.9%−0.915% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q2 6:15UALB 4th & 10 at UALB 25, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q2 4:54SYR 4th & 14 at SYR 26, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snapGo for it97.8%−0.517% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.3%average punt
- Q3 12:37UALB 4th & 21 at UALB 5, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.27% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 9:55UALB 4th & 5 at midfield, down 42Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 6:05UALB 4th & 9 at SYR 44, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.132% to convertField goal0.2%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q3 1:39SYR 4th & 6 at UALB 10, up 42Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.135% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%88% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 14:46UALB 4th & 13 at UALB 22, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 8 of 8UALB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:57SYR Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.5%97% to makeGo for two90.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:35SYR Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:48UALB Touchdown, down 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call12.1%97% to makeGo for two12.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:07SYR Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.9%97% to makeGo for two89.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:50SYR Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.0%97% to makeGo for two95.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:51SYR Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:32SYR Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:09SYR Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:29SYR Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:50UALB Touchdown, down 46 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:23UALB Touchdown, down 39 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1TD15 plays · 62 yds · 5:0394% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
93.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Benson for 6 yds to the Syrac 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+13
93.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 13 yds to the Alban 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+6
93.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Benson for 6 yds to the Alban 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:287% → 7%
Q1 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
93.1%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Roy Alexander for 9 yds to the Alban 34Similar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
93.0%
Jeff Undercuffler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alban 32 fumbled, recovered by Alban Jeff UndercufflerSimilar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
93.1%
Sean Ralls punt for 34 yds for a 1ST down , Trebor Pena returns for no gain to the Syrac 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 3TD7 plays · 81 yds · 1:5493% → 94%
Q1 8:29
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+15
92.9%
ALBANY Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 4FG8 plays · 55 yds · 3:147% → 7%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
93.4%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Jackson Parker for 12 yds to the Alban 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+1
93.3%
Joey Carino pass complete to Roy Alexander for 1 yd to the Alban 43Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+30
93.3%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Jackson Parker for 30 yds to the Syrac 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+7
93.1%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Karl Mofor for 7 yds to the Syrac 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5INT TD2 plays · -15 yds · 0:2993% → 91%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
92.6%
TUCKER, Sean rush to the right for no gain to the SYR35 (VERSE, Jared). PENALTY SYR Face mask enforced 15 yards from the SYR35 to the SYR20. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6TD2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4191% → 92%
UALBDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 2:147% → 8%
Q1 2:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
92.5%
Jeff Undercuffler sacked by Cody Roscoe for 0 yards to the Alban 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+8
92.5%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Lavarey Banton for 8 yds to the Alban 32Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
92.5%
Sean Ralls punt for 38 yds , Trebor Pena returns for no gain to the Syrac 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8FG9 plays · 39 yds · 2:2392% → 94%
Q2 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+58
92.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Tucker for 68 yds for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive Holding (TEAM) to the Syrac 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+44
92.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Tucker for 44 yds to the Alban 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 9PUNT4 plays · -5 yds · 2:277% → 7%
Q2 10:03
4TH & 15
OWN 7
+12
93.3%
Sean Ralls punt for 42 yds , Trebor Pena returns for 12 yds to the Syrac 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10TD3 plays · 53 yds · 1:1394% → 97%
UALBDrive 11FUMBLE2 plays · -1 yds · 0:534% → 4%
SYRDrive 12TD1 play · 12 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 1:361% → 1%
Q2 7:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
98.6%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Karl Mofor for a loss of 1 yard to the Alban 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2199% → 99%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-8
98.5%
Sean Tucker run for 2 yds to the Syrac 32 SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive Holding (TEAM) to the Syrac 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:031% → 1%
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.0%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Jackson Parker for 4 yds to the Alban 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16TD9 plays · 58 yds · 3:1999% → 99%
Q2 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
98.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Anthony Queeley for 12 yds to the Alban 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 17END OF HALF4 plays · 0 yds · 0:361% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -11 yds · 2:191% → 1%
Q3 14:56
2ND & 19
OWN 7
0
99.4%
Jeff Undercuffler sacked by Curtis Harper for 0 yards to the Alban 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 19TD2 plays · 26 yds · 2:14100% → 100%
UALBDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 25 yds · 2:140% → 0%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
99.6%
Joey Carino pass complete to Mohamed Jabbie for 20 yds to the Alban 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.6%
Joey Carino pass complete to Mohamed Jabbie for 9 yds to the Syrac 46Similar
Q3 9:55
4TH & 5
50
0
99.7%
Sean Ralls punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Courtney Jackson at the Syrac 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21INT5 plays · 10 yds · 2:08100% → 100%
Q3 9:55
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+10
99.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Oronde Gadsden II for 10 yds to the Syrac 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 1:420% → 0%
SYRDrive 23FG11 plays · 78 yds · 4:26100% → 100%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 3 yds to the Syrac 28Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
99.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sharod Johnson for 11 yds to the Syrac 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
99.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 15 yds to the Alban 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+17
99.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 17 yds to the Alban 29 for a 1ST down ALBANY Penalty, Personal Foul (TEAM) to the Alban 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 2 yds to the Alban 12Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 6
OPP 10
-15
99.7%
SHRADER, Garrett scrambles to the left for no gain to the ALB10 (AMBUSH, Jackson). PENALTY SYR Face mask enforced 15 yards from the ALB10 to the ALB25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 21
OPP 25
+15
99.7%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 15 yds to the Alban 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 24PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:530% → 0%
SYRDrive 25TD7 plays · 46 yds · 2:17100% → 100%
Q4 14:46
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+15
99.9%
SHRADER, Garrett sacked for a loss of 1 yard at the ALB46 (VERSE, Jared). PENALTY ALB Personal Foul enforced 15 yards from the ALB45 to the ALB30 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+21
99.9%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Devaughn Cooper for 21 yds to the Alban 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 26TD16 plays · 75 yds · 8:390% → 0%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.9%
Joey Carino pass complete to Roy Alexander for 11 yds to the Alban 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
99.9%
QB Keeper CARINO, Joey rush up the middle for no gain to the ALB47 (GEER, Jatius). PENALTY SYR Face mask enforced 15 yards from the ALB47 to the SYR38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
100.0%
Joey Carino pass complete to Mohamed Jabbie for 6 yds to the Syrac 32Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & 19
OPP 33
+15
100.0%
CARINO, Joey pass to the right incomplete intended for ALEXANDER, Roy thrown to the SYR28; QB hurried by LOWERY, Leon. PENALTY SYR Targeting on SPARROW, Anwar enforced 15 yards from the SYR33 to the SYR18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+9
100.0%
CARINO, Joey pass to the right incomplete intended for GRAY, Mike thrown to the SYR4. PENALTY SYR Pass Interference enforced 9 yards to the SYR2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 27TD2 plays · 21 yds · 1:250% → 0%
SYRDrive 28END OF GAME5 plays · 63 yds · 2:18100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:50
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 72 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+2.7
TD · Q2 7:51
Sean Tucker run for 12 yds for a TD, (Andre Szmyt KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q1 2:48
Christian Lewis 25 Yd Interception Return (Dylan Burns Kick)
-1.5