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WMU

Western Michigan 44 at Pittsburgh 41

PITT
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:49 · Nick Mihalic punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Melquise Stovall at the Pitt 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Pregame prior+20.7Home team on offense+1.2Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:01: Skyy Moore 30 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Parker Sampson PAT failed) — WMU win probability +7.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:25: Jordan Addison 23 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton PAT failed) — PITT win probability +6.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:10: La'Darius Jefferson 3 Yd Run (Parker Sampson Kick) — WMU win probability +25.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:37: Parker Sampson 29 Yd Field Goal — WMU win probability +11.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:48: Jaylon Barden 22 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick) — PITT win probability +32.1 pts (now 49%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 11:29WMU 4th & 19 at PITT 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:43PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:18WMU 4th & 11 at WMU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:28WMU 4th & 1 at PITT 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    21.0%−0.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    19.4%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:19PITT 4th & 4 at WMU 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%−1.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:05WMU 4th & 4 at WMU 26, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:08WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 49, down 1
    Close callPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:49WMU 4th & 21 at WMU 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−2.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00WMU 4th & 1 at WMU 34, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:21PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−1.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:13WMU 4th & 2 at PITT 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−1.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−3.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:19PITT 4th & 11 at PITT 28, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:03PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.8%−4.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:18PITT 4th & 6 at WMU 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.4%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:37WMU 4th & 12 at PITT 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−2.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−10.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 8:08PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:42WMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:28WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:01WMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:54PITT Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:25PITT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:10WMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:48PITT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WMUDrive 1MISSED FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 3:3115% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.5%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the WMich 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
85.5%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+12
85.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 12 yds to the WMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
85.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Roughing the Passer on MATHIS, Damarri enforced (15 Yards) to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
85.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 11 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
84.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:36
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
84.7%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Devin Danielson for 0 yards to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 12:36
3RD & 21
OPP 28
+2
84.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 2 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 11:29
4TH & 19
OPP 26
+43
84.6%
Parker Sampson 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4685% → 84%
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
84.6%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+7
84.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q1 11:29
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
84.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 4
OWN 32
0
84.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 49 yds, downed at the WMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:2516% → 16%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
84.3%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 1 yd to the WMich 20Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-5
84.3%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WMich 15Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+2
84.3%
Kaleb Eleby run for 2 yds to the WMich 17Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 12
OWN 17
+1
84.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 1 yd to the WMich 18Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
83.8%
Nick Mihalic punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
1 play · 67 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
85.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 67 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 5TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 8:0815% → 21%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
84.9%
TYLER, Sean rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the WMI27 (GREEN, David). PENALTY WMI Holding on GIDEON, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the WMI25 to the WMI15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+4
84.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Anthony Torres for 4 yds to the WMich 20Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
85.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 15 yds to the WMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
84.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Erick Hallett) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
50
+13
84.5%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 13 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
84.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 11 yds to the Pitt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
84.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 3Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
84.6%
ELEBY, Kaleb pass to the left incomplete intended for HALL, Jaylen thrown to the PIT0. PENALTY PIT Pass Interference on MATHIS, Damarri enforced 1 yards to the PIT2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.4%
QB Keeper ELEBY, Kaleb rush up the middle for a loss of 2 yards to the PIT4 (DENNIS, SirVocea). PENALTY Before the snap, PIT Illegal Substitution enforced half the distance from the goal, 1 yards from the PIT2 to the PIT1. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
84.4%
Kaleb Eleby run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
84.4%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.0%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Parker Sampson KICK)Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
79.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 21 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:3782% → 82%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 24Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+19
81.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 19 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:3719% → 23%
Q1 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+38
81.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 38 yds to the Pitt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
80.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Pitt 2Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
80.7%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.0%
La'Darius Jefferson 1 Yd Run (Parker Sampson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:0278% → 77%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
78.1%
Vincent Davis run for 8 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+17
78.5%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jared Wayne for 17 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
78.9%
Nick Patti pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-10
78.8%
DAVIS, Vincent rush to the left for a gain of 8 yards to the WMI40 (BARNES, Zaire). PENALTY PIT Holding on DREXEL, Owen enforced 10 yards from the WMI48 to the PIT42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 20
OWN 42
0
77.1%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 42
+16
76.8%
Nick Patti pass complete to Taysir Mack for 16 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q2 14:19
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+2
77.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 2 yds to the WMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:1825% → 33%
Q2 14:19
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+10
75.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 10 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
74.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
74.6%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-5
74.8%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+14
75.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 14 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & 11
OWN 40
+6
75.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 6 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
67.4%
Skyy Moore 30 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Parker Sampson PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0771% → 77%
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.0%
Vincent Davis run for 11 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-18
71.3%
run for a loss of 18 yards to the Pitt 18Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 28
OWN 18
+15
70.8%
PICKETT, Kenny pass to the left incomplete intended for MACK, Taysir thrown to the PIT18. PENALTY WMI Pass Interference on JACKSON, Dorian enforced 15 yards to the PIT33 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
71.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 10 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
71.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+11
72.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 11 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+27
72.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 27 yds to the WMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
73.1%
Vincent Davis run for 5 yds to the WMich 9Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+7
73.1%
PICKETT, Kenny pass up the middle incomplete intended for ADDISON, Jordan thrown to the WMI9. PENALTY WMI Pass Interference on MOERTL, Jake enforced 7 yards to the WMI2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
76.7%
K. Pickett pass,to L. Krull for 2 yds for a TD, (S. Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4527% → 28%
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
72.8%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the WMich 26Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
72.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:16
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
72.2%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:05
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+3
71.9%
Nick Mihalic punt for 48 yds , Melquise Stovall returns for 3 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 0:4072% → 81%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+38
72.1%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 38 yds to the WMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
74.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 10 yds to the WMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
81.0%
Jordan Addison 23 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:1024% → 22%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
76.1%
Sean Tyler run for 9 yds to the WMich 40Similar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+5
74.9%
Sean Tyler run for 5 yds to the WMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
75.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
78.3%
Kaleb Eleby run for 4 yds to the WMich 49Similar
Q2 7:18
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
77.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:08
4TH & 6
OWN 49
+10
78.5%
Nick Mihalic punt for 44 yds , Melquise Stovall returns for 10 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
79.8%
Kenny Pickett run for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 9 fumbled, recovered by WMich Zaire BarnesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:4425% → 25%
Q2 5:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
75.3%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 5Similar
Q2 4:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
75.0%
K. Eleby pass,to S. Tyler for 5 yds for a TD, (P. Sampson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16INT
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:4280% → 81%
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
79.7%
PICKETT, Kenny pass up the middle incomplete intended for STOVALL, Melquise broken up by COLEMAN, Therran at the PIT30. PENALTY WMI Pass Interference on COLEMAN, Therran enforced 15 yards to the PIT40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
80.7%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 43
-10
80.9%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted return for no gain to the WMich 43 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Block (Zaire Barnes) to the WMich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 1:4624% → 21%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
76.4%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 1 yd to the WMich 46Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 9
OWN 46
-15
76.5%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the WMich 24Similar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 31
OWN 24
+15
79.1%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 15 yds to the WMich 39Similar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 16
OWN 39
-5
79.2%
WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Anthony Enechukwu) to the WMich 34Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 21
OWN 34
0
78.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Melquise Stovall at the Pitt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 0:4279% → 79%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
78.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 4 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+6
79.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 6 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+31
79.5%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 31 yds to the WMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
79.1%
K. Pickett pass,to J. Addison for 28 yds for a TD, (S. Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0727% → 28%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.2%
Sean Tyler run for 6 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-4
71.7%
Sean Tyler run for a loss of 4 yards to the WMich 27Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+7
72.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 7 yds to the WMich 34Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
72.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 54 yds, downed at the Pitt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:3977% → 75%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
77.2%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
77.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 7 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
76.7%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Braden Fiske for 0 yards to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 13:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
74.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Bryce Nunnelly at the WMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 4:0825% → 27%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
74.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 5 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+4
73.6%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Anthony Torres for 4 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+6
73.8%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Skyy Moore for 6 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
73.1%
Jack Salopek pass complete to Skyy Moore for 10 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
73.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 13:21
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+2
72.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
73.0%
La'Darius Jefferson run for no gain to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 9:13
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+1
73.0%
Sean Tyler run for 1 yd to the Pitt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5475% → 72%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
75.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-1
74.7%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 9:13
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
73.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 11
OWN 28
0
72.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 28 yds, downed at the WMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23TD
2 plays · 56 yds · 0:4829% → 29%
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
71.4%
Sean Tyler run for 2 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+54
70.8%
Corey Crooms 54 Yd pass from Kaleb Eleby (Parker Sampson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3174% → 74%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
74.2%
Vincent Davis run for 9 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
75.9%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
75.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+6
75.0%
Kenny Pickett run for 6 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+20
75.8%
Kenny Pickett run for 20 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
78.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Vincent Davis for 10 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
73.9%
Lucas Krull 24 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:5034% → 70%
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
65.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 12 yds to the WMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
64.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the WMich 38Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+10
64.3%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Rashad Battle) to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
62.5%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-15
63.1%
ELEBY, Kaleb pass up the middle incomplete thrown to the PIT44; QB hurried by DANIELSON, Devin and DENNIS, SirVocea. PENALTY WMI Personal Foul on GIDEON, Jacob enforced 15 yards from the WMI48 to the WMI33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 25
OWN 33
+13
66.3%
Sean Tyler run for 13 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+25
65.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 25 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
60.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 5 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+1
60.4%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Pitt 23Similar
Q3 5:00
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+4
62.0%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Sean Tyler for 4 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
60.3%
ELEBY, Kaleb pass to the left incomplete intended for HALL, Jaylen thrown to the PIT0. PENALTY WMI Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on DEATHERAGE, Dylan PIT Pass Interference on DEVONSHIRE, M.J. , Offsetting penalties [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
56.2%
Sean Tyler run for 14 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
56.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 3Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.3%
La'Darius Jefferson 3 Yd Run (Parker Sampson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 16 yds · 3:4540% → 35%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
39.9%
PICKETT, Kenny pass to the left incomplete intended for ADDISON, Jordan thrown to the WMI35. PENALTY WMI Pass Interference on KILBURG, Ryan enforced 15 yards to the PIT37 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
41.2%
Melquise Stovall run for 7 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 3
OWN 44
-1
44.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Melquise Stovall for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-15
42.3%
PICKETT, Kenny pass to the left complete for 3 yards to BARDEN, Jaylon caught at the PIT46 and advanced to the PIT46, out of bounds. PENALTY PIT Personal Foul on MINOR, Marcus enforced 15 yards from the PIT43 to the PIT28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 19
OWN 28
+18
37.8%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 18 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+2
41.2%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
44.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-4
43.7%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+8
39.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 8 yds to the WMich 48Similar
Q4 10:18
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
34.9%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Ali Fayad for 0 yards to the Pitt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 27FG
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:4175% → 86%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
24.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 9 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+2
23.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
23.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & 2
OPP 19
0
23.9%
Kaleb Eleby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+16
24.8%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Skyy Moore for 16 yds to the Pitt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
23.6%
Sean Tyler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 4Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
23.9%
Kaleb Eleby sacked by Phil Campbell III for 0 yards to the Pitt 14Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
25.4%
Kaleb Eleby run for 2 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q4 5:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
14.4%
Parker Sampson 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 28TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4914% → 49%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
14.4%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
14.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 10 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
15.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 9 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
17.5%
Kenny Pickett run for 5 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+29
17.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 29 yds to the WMich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
49.1%
Jaylon Barden 22 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 29END OF GAME
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:4872% → 94%
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
28.5%
Sean Tyler run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 22Similar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+6
26.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 6 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q4 2:58
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
25.7%
Kaleb Eleby pass complete to Corey Crooms for 13 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
18.1%
La'Darius Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 40Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+34
17.9%
Sean Tyler run for 34 yds to the Pitt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
14.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
14.2%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+2
5.9%
La'Darius Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:48
Jaylon Barden 22 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Sam Scarton Kick)
+32.1
TD · Q4 14:10
La'Darius Jefferson 3 Yd Run (Parker Sampson Kick)
-25.9
FG · Q4 5:37
Parker Sampson 29 Yd Field Goal
-11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com