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NU

Northwestern 23 at Duke 30

DUKE
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadNU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreNU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:12: Jordan Moore run for 9 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +8.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:25: Andrew Marty pass complete to Jacob Gill for 31 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +12.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:44: Andrew Marty pass complete to Marshall Lang for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — NU win probability +7.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:21: Andrew Marty run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +10.5 pts (now 29%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 3:45: Charlie Ham 52 yd FG MISSED — DUKE win probability +7.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 9NU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 14:08NU 4th & 16 at NU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:23NU 4th & 8 at NU 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:04DUKE 4th & 2 at NU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%−1.4
    23% to make
    Punt
    53.6%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:08DUKE 4th & 3 at NU 5, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.4%−0.9
    92% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−7.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:14NU 4th & 8 at NU 42, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:04DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 31, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:16DUKE 4th & 1 at NU 9, up 24
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.6%−1.9
    89% to make
    Punt
    81.3%−6.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:12DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 21, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.6%−0.6
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:10NU 4th & 8 at DUKE 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−1.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:10NU 4th & 8 at DUKE 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−1.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    24.9%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:45DUKE 4th & 3 at NU 34, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.9%−1.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    75.9%−2.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:11NU 4th & 11 at DUKE 35, down 13
    Close callPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    14.1%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:24DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 1, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−3.7
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:14DUKE 4th & 20 at DUKE 37, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−2.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:48NU 4th & 10 at NU 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:35DUKE 4th & 4 at NU 30, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    95.6%−0.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:48NU 4th & 7 at DUKE 7, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.5%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 13:17DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:07DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:12DUKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:25NU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:44NU Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    18.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:21NU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:5250% → 50%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
49.8%
PENALTY NWU Delay Of Game (Johnson,Hunter) 5 yards from NWU25 to NWU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
49.8%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Marshall LangSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
49.8%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Nwest 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
49.8%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q1 14:08
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
50.0%
Derek Adams punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 0:5150% → 51%
Q1 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+50
50.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 50 yds to the Nwest 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
50.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Nwest 11Similar
Q1 14:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
50.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q1 13:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
50.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 11 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5449% → 49%
Q1 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.7%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Evan HullSimilar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.7%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
50.8%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
Q1 12:23
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+12
51.3%
Derek Adams punt for 55 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 12 yds to the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:1651% → 54%
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
51.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 21 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
51.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 20 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
51.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Nicky DalmolinSimilar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
51.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 8 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+21
53.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 21 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5FUMBLE
15 plays · 62 yds · 4:0347% → 44%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
53.2%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
53.2%
Andrew Clair run for no gain to the Nwest 27Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
53.3%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Malik Washington for 12 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
53.1%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Jacob GillSimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
53.1%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Connor NewhouseSimilar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-5
53.2%
PENALTY NWU False Start (Niro III,Raymond) 5 yards from NWU39 to NWU34. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+44
53.3%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 44 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
52.7%
Hunter Johnson run for 4 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+15
52.7%
Anthony Tyus III run for 15 yds to the Duke 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
52.7%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
55.1%
PENALTY NWU False Start (Wiederkehr,Ethan) 5 yards from DUK01 to DUK06. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
55.1%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Evan Hull for 4 yds to the Duke 2Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-11
55.9%
Hunter Johnson sacked by Lummie Young IV for a loss of 11 yards to the Duke 13 Hunter Johnson fumbled, recovered by Duke Ben Frye , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6FUMBLE
14 plays · 84 yds · 4:3458% → 63%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+14
57.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 14 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
57.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 6 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+13
57.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 13 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
58.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jarett GarnerSimilar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
58.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jordan Waters for 5 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+3
58.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 3 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+5
57.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
58.5%
Holmberg,Gunnar pass incomplete to Pancol,Eli broken up by Mitchell,Cameron PENALTY DUK Ineligible Downfield on Pass (McIntyre,Maurice) 5 yards from NWU41 to NWU46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+1
58.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jordan Waters for 1 yd to the Nwest 45Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 14
OPP 45
+15
58.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 15 yds to the Nwest 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
58.5%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Jeffery Pooler Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+18
58.3%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 18 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
63.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 6 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1638% → 37%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
62.0%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
62.0%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Evan Hull for 8 yds to the Nwest 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
61.7%
Hull,Evan rush for 4 yards gain to the NWU35 (Johnson,Leonard) PENALTY NWU Holding (Schmidt,Charlie) 10 yards from NWU31 to NWU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:41
1ST & 20
OWN 21
-15
63.2%
Hunter Johnson pass intercepted DUKE Penalty, Personal Foul (Christian Rorie) to the Nwest 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
2 plays · 31 yds · 0:2965% → 74%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
65.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 22 yds to the Nwest 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
74.1%
Jordan Moore run for 9 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 0:4027% → 26%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
73.3%
Anthony Tyus III run for 11 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
72.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
74.0%
Hunter Johnson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10FG
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:1276% → 80%
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
75.8%
Jordan Moore run for 1 yd to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+36
75.4%
Jordan Moore pass complete to Cole Finney for 36 yds to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
75.8%
Jordan Moore run for no gain to the Nwest 12Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+4
75.8%
Jordan Moore run for 4 yds to the Nwest 8Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 6
OPP 8
+3
75.0%
Jordan Moore run for 3 yds to the Nwest 5Similar
Q2 12:08
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+23
80.3%
Charlie Ham 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:5022% → 20%
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+25
78.5%
Andrew Clair run for 25 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
77.6%
Hunter Johnson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 39Similar
Q2 12:04
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+3
78.0%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Andrew Clair for 3 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
77.8%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson Jr.Similar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
80.5%
Derek Adams punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Scott Boylan at the Duke 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:1083% → 84%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
83.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 17 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
83.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
83.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 1 yd to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
83.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jarett GarnerSimilar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
83.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nwest 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13INT
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:1119% → 20%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
80.9%
Evan Hull run for 15 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
80.4%
DUKE Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
79.4%
Hunter Johnson run for 2 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
80.5%
Hunter Johnson pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14FG
16 plays · 69 yds · 5:3786% → 95%
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-5
85.5%
Holmberg,Gunnar pass complete to Bobo,Jake for 7 yards to the DUK29 (Mitchell,Cameron), out of bounds PENALTY DUK Illegal Formation (Barton,Graham) 5 yards from DUK22 to DUK17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 15
OWN 17
+6
85.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 6 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+8
85.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 8 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
85.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
85.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
85.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Eli Pancol for 7 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+8
85.7%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 8 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
86.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 6 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+6
86.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 6 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
86.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 4 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+18
86.2%
Jordan Waters run for 18 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
86.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+3
86.2%
Jordan Waters run for 3 yds to the Nwest 11Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+2
85.6%
Jordan Moore run for 2 yds to the Nwest 9Similar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+27
95.1%
Charlie Ham 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:512% → 15%
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.9%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Malik Washington for 13 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
97.7%
Andrew Marty pass incomplete to Raymond Niro IIISimilar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+17
97.7%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Evan Hull for 17 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+14
97.5%
Evan Hull run for 14 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
97.4%
Andrew Marty pass incomplete to Evan HullSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+31
84.6%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Jacob Gill for 31 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16FG
10 plays · 32 yds · 1:1692% → 93%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
91.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+14
92.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Marwede for 14 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jalon CalhounSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
92.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 8 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+5
91.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
92.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+50
92.7%
Charlie Ham 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 1:4390% → 91%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
90.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 13
OWN 12
0
90.1%
DUKE Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 13
OWN 12
+3
90.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 18 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jack Wohlabaugh) to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
90.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 6 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
90.3%
Mataeo Durant run for no gain to the Duke 21Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
90.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
90.6%
Porter Wilson punt for 49 yds , Raymond Niro III returns for no gain to the Nwest 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:2810% → 19%
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
90.4%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 6 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+2
90.2%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 37Similar
Q3 13:12
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+3
90.3%
Evan Hull run for 3 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+40
90.2%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 40 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
89.4%
Andrew Marty pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
81.5%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Marshall Lang for 20 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FUMBLE
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
84.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Darrell Harding Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 7 yds · 1:0319% → 29%
Q3 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
81.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
81.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the Duke 1Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.9%
Andrew Marty run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21INT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0475% → 76%
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
74.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 1 yd to the Duke 24Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
74.2%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 10:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+10
73.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 10 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
75.7%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
75.6%
Gunnar Holmberg run for no gain to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
75.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:0727% → 24%
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-15
72.8%
Hull,Evan rush for 2 yards gain to the DUK41 (Thompson,Nate) PENALTY NWU Personal Foul (Gerak,Sam) 15 yards from DUK43 to NWU42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 25
OWN 42
+1
74.9%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Evan Hull for 1 yd to the Nwest 41Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 26
OWN 41
+13
75.0%
Andrew Marty run for 13 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 8:17
3RD & 13
OPP 46
+5
74.9%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 5 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
76.2%
Andrew Marty pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
76.2%
Andrew Marty pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23FG
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:2579% → 86%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
79.3%
Jordan Waters run for 8 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 2
OWN 49
0
79.5%
Jordan Waters run for no gain to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+10
78.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jontavis Robertson for 10 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
79.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 8 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 2
OPP 33
-10
79.8%
Coleman,Jaylen rush for 1 yard gain to the NWU32 (Bergin,Chris) PENALTY DUK Holding (Barton,Graham) 10 yards from NWU33 to NWU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+9
79.2%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 9 yds to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
78.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jontavis RobertsonSimilar
Q3 3:45
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+52
86.2%
Charlie Ham 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 21 yds · 3:3416% → 13%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
83.6%
Andrew Marty run for 6 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+5
82.6%
Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
82.9%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Jacob Gill for 3 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+8
82.4%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 8 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
82.1%
Andrew Marty run for 8 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+1
81.7%
Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+1
81.9%
Andrew Marty run for 1 yd to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
81.1%
Andrew Marty sacked by DeWayne Carter for a loss of 10 yards to the Duke 44 Andrew Marty fumbled, recovered by Nwest Peter Skoronski , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 20
OPP 44
+9
83.6%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
83.0%
Andrew Marty pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q3 0:11
4TH & 11
OPP 35
0
86.9%
Derek Adams punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:4790% → 91%
Q3 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
90.4%
PENALTY DUK False Start (Holman,Casey). NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
90.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+1
90.4%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 2Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+1
90.0%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 1 yd to the Duke 1Similar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 10
OWN 1
+14
90.7%
Porter Wilson punt for 64 yds , Raymond Niro III returns for 14 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 5:0092% → 94%
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
92.0%
Jordan Moore run for 8 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+2
92.2%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
92.2%
Jordan Moore run for 1 yd to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+4
92.0%
Jordan Moore run for 4 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
92.1%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 8 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:14
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
92.6%
Jordan Moore run for 4 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-3
92.5%
Jordan Moore run for 7 yds to the Duke 42 DUKE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Marwede) to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 13
OWN 44
-15
92.3%
Moore,Jordan pass complete to Durant,Mataeo for 4 yards to the DUK48 (Heard II,Rod) PENALTY DUK Personal Foul (Bobo,Jake) 15 yards from DUK44 to DUK29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:14
2ND & 28
OWN 29
+2
91.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 2 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 26
OWN 31
+6
91.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 6 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q4 8:14
4TH & 20
OWN 37
+3
93.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 41 yds , Evan Hull returns for 3 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:268% → 7%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Raymond Niro IIISimilar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
92.1%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson Jr.Similar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
92.3%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Evan HullSimilar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+11
92.7%
Derek Adams punt for 47 yds , Josh Blackwell returns for 11 yds to the Duke 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:1395% → 97%
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
94.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Eli Pancol for 15 yds to the Nwest 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
94.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 6 yds to the Nwest 40Similar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+2
94.9%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+2
94.8%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 2 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
94.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q4 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
94.9%
Gunnar Holmberg run for no gain to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 7:48
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+6
94.7%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 6 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+3
96.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to for 3 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 29FG
9 plays · 66 yds · 1:364% → 3%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
96.3%
Hilinski,Ryan pass intercepted by Blackwell,Josh at NWU49 Blackwell,Josh return 45 yards to the NWU04 (Gerak,Sam) PENALTY DUK Pass Interference (Blackwell,Josh) 14 yards from NWU27 to NWU41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
96.0%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 14 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
95.9%
Andrew Clair run for 9 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+8
95.7%
Evan Hull run for 8 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
95.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 20 yds to the Duke 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
95.2%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson Jr.Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
95.2%
Evan Hull run for 1 yd to the Duke 7Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
95.7%
Ryan Hilinski pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
Q4 2:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
97.0%
Charlie Kuhbander 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 30END OF GAME
11 plays · 9 yds · 2:4898% → 99%
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.5%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
97.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+16
98.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Eli Pancol for 16 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
98.5%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 14
OWN 41
-4
99.1%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 37Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 18
OWN 37
-3
99.2%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:25
Andrew Marty pass complete to Jacob Gill for 31 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
-12.8
TD · Q3 10:21
Andrew Marty run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
-10.5
TD · Q1 0:12
Jordan Moore run for 9 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)
+8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com