2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreGT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:17 · Will Spiers punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kyric McGowan at the GTech 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q4 8:12: Will Shipley run for 3 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK) — CLEM win probability +11.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q4 1:19: Brent Cimaglia 22 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +4.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:39: Jordan Yates run for 8 yds to the Clem 8 — GT win probability +4.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:15: CLEMSON Penalty, Delay of Game (-1 Yards) to the Clem 1 — CLEM win probability +6.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 0:03: Jordan Yates pass incomplete to Adonicas Sanders — GT win probability +5.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 5GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
- Q1 11:12CLEM 4th & 5 at GT 42, tiedClose callPunted · 94.5% before the snapGo for it94.6%42% to convertField goal94.5%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call94.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 2:39GT 4th & 15 at GT 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it6.2%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q1 1:17CLEM 4th & 11 at CLEM 47, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.0% before the snapGo for it92.9%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.1%average punt
- Q1 0:00GT 4th & 4 at GT 24, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it7.0%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q2 8:43CLEM 4th & 2 at GT 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.9%56% to convertField goal91.6%−0.277% to makePunt90.2%−1.6average punt
- Q2 4:14GT 4th & 8 at CLEM 43, down 7Close callPunted · 9.3% before the snapGo for it9.3%34% to convertField goal9.0%−0.328% to makePuntTheir call9.2%−0.1average punt
- Q2 2:47CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 23, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snapGo for it89.4%−0.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call89.8%average punt
- Q2 1:01GT 4th & 1 at CLEM 34, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.3%71% to convertField goal10.6%−0.747% to makePunt9.8%−1.5average punt
- Q2 0:00GT 4th & 5 at CLEM 5, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 11.5% before the snapGo for it11.5%33% to convertField goalTheir call11.3%−0.192% to makePunt7.6%−3.9average punt
- Q3 11:57GT 4th & 24 at GT 42, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snapGo for it12.7%−1.77% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.4%average punt
- Q3 8:49CLEM 4th & 4 at midfield, up 4Close callPunted · 86.0% before the snapGo for it86.5%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call86.0%−0.4average punt
- Q3 5:06GT 4th & 16 at GT 41, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snapGo for it14.7%−1.916% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.6%average punt
- Q4 12:41GT 4th & 1 at GT 26, down 4Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 19.6% before the snapGo for it20.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.7%−2.1average punt
- Q4 2:50GT 4th & 7 at CLEM 35, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.1%37% to convertField goal4.5%−0.645% to makePunt4.3%−0.8average punt
- Q4 1:19GT 4th & 5 at CLEM 5, down 11Close callKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snapGo for it5.0%33% to convertField goalTheir call4.1%−0.992% to makePunt3.2%−1.8average punt
- Q4 0:15GT 4th & 2 at CLEM 2, down 8Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsWent for it · 10.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.7%−1.048% to convertField goal9.7%94% to makePunt4.9%−4.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 4:40CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.6%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:12CLEM Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 3:4895% → 94%
Q1 14:34
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+13
94.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 13 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+12
94.5%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 12 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
94.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 4 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+1
94.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Braden Galloway for 1 yd to the GTech 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2FUMBLE6 plays · 0 yds · 3:206% → 7%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+10
94.1%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Malachi Carter for 10 yds to the GTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 4
OWN 20
-5
93.6%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-11
93.4%
Jordan Yates sacked by Xavier Thomas and Trenton Simpson for a loss of 11 yards to the GTech 4Similar
Q1 7:52
2ND & 21
OWN 4
0
93.2%
David Shanahan punt for 36 yds , Will Shipley returns for no gain to the GTech 39 Will Shipley fumbled, recovered by Clem Will ShipleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3TD8 plays · 39 yds · 3:1293% → 94%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
93.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 4 yds to the GTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 1:587% → 7%
Q1 3:10
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-3
93.2%
Jordan Yates sacked by Bryan Bresee and K.J. Henry for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0393% → 93%
Q1 1:17
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
92.5%
Will Spiers punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kyric McGowan at the GTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:587% → 7%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
92.6%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Peje' Harris for 3 yds to the GTech 21Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
92.5%
Yates, Jordan pass complete to McGowan, Kyric for no gain to the GATECH24, PENALTY GATECH illegal touching (McGowan, Kyric) 0 yards to the GATECH24, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7DOWNS13 plays · 43 yds · 6:1293% → 91%
Q2 12:45
2ND & 9
50
-7
92.5%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Lyn-J Dixon for a loss of 7 yards to the Clem 43Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 16
OWN 43
+17
91.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Kobe Pace for 17 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+5
92.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Frank Ladson Jr. for 5 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+8
91.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 8 yds to the GTech 19Similar
Q2 8:43
4TH & 2
OPP 19
0
91.4%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Shipley for no gain to the GTech 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT11 plays · 38 yds · 4:119% → 9%
CLEMDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1091% → 89%
GTDrive 10END OF HALF17 plays · 66 yds · 2:3010% → 13%
Q2 1:48
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+15
89.3%
Yates, Jordan pass incomplete to McGowan, Kyric, PENALTY CLEMSON personal foul (Simpson, Trenton) 15 yards to the CLEMSON43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GATECH.Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+7
88.7%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 7 yds to the Clem 36Similar
Q2 1:01
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+9
88.9%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Malachi Carter for 9 yds to the Clem 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
87.3%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 10 yds to the Clem 15 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Clem 25Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+7
88.4%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Dylan Deveney for 7 yds to the Clem 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 2:4314% → 14%
Q3 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+35
85.9%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 35 yds to the Clem 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 12
OPP 46
-14
84.1%
Jordan Yates sacked by Bryan Bresee for a loss of 14 yards to the CLEMSON 40 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the GTech 40Similar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 24
OWN 42
+10
85.7%
David Shanahan punt for 40 yds , Will Taylor returns for 10 yds to the CLEMSON 48 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Clem 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 2:5785% → 86%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
84.8%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 4 yds to the Clem 22Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+3
85.6%
D.J. Uiagalelei run for 3 yds to the Clem 29 D.J. Uiagalelei fumbled, recovered by Clem D.J. Uiagalelei for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
86.0%
Uiagalelei, D.J. pass incomplete to Ladson Jr., Frank, PENALTY GATECH pass interference 15 yards to the CLEMSON44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CLEMSON.Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
86.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:49
4TH & 4
50
0
85.6%
Will Spiers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Kyric McGowan at the GTech 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 30 yds · 3:3415% → 16%
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+25
84.6%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 25 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+5
82.1%
Gibbs, Jahmyr rush for 3 yards to the GATECH45, PENALTY CLEMSON substitution infraction 5 yards to the GATECH47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GATECH.Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
81.8%
Yates, Jordan rush for no gain to the GATECH47, PENALTY GATECH holding 10 yards to the GATECH37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+3
83.4%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 3 yds to the GTech 40Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 17
OWN 40
-2
83.1%
Jordan Yates sacked by LaVonta Bentley for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 38Similar
Q3 5:06
4TH & 16
OWN 41
0
84.0%
David Shanahan punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Will Taylor at the Clem 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14FUMBLE12 plays · 66 yds · 5:4583% → 84%
GTDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1421% → 20%
Q4 13:20
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+2
79.6%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Nate McCollum for 2 yds to the GTech 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16TD13 plays · 66 yds · 4:0881% → 94%
Q4 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+12
81.2%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Joseph Ngata for 12 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
82.3%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Justyn Ross for 13 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
82.9%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Will Taylor for 5 yds to the GTech 34Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-9
83.1%
Will Shipley run for 1 yd to the GTech 33 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Frank Ladson Jr.) to the GTech 43Similar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
82.7%
D.J. Uiagalelei pass complete to Davis Allen for 7 yds to the GTech 7 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Tariq Carpenter) to the GTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17FG19 plays · 70 yds · 6:267% → 12%
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.0%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Adonicas Sanders for 8 yds to the GTech 33Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+9
92.6%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Malachi Carter for 9 yds to the GTech 48Similar
Q4 2:50
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+7
94.1%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Dylan Deveney for 7 yds to the Clem 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+19
92.4%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Malachi Carter for 19 yds to the Clem 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
92.4%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Dylan Deveney for 2 yds to the Clem 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18DOWNS15 plays · 51 yds · 1:0011% → 7%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
89.2%
Yates, Jordan pass incomplete to Sanders, Adonicas, PENALTY CLEMSON roughing passer (Orhorhoro, Ruke) 15 yards to the CLEMSON38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GATECH.Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+22
88.7%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 22 yds to the Clem 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
85.6%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Kyric McGowan for no gain to the Clem 3Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
92.6%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Dylan Deveney for no gain to the Clem 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19SF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0899% → 97%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:12
Will Shipley run for 3 yds for a TD, (B.T. Potter KICK)
+11.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+8.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:15
CLEMSON Penalty, Delay of Game (-1 Yards) to the Clem 1
+6.1