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UCF

UCF 35 at Louisville 42

LOU
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2021 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:40 · Mark Vassett punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amari Johnson at the UCF 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Pregame prior−1.0Home team on offense+20.5Garbage-time factor+14.7Score differential+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:57: Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +18.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:25: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +23.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:15: Braden Smith pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 45 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +30.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:21: Dillon Gabriel run for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK) — UCF win probability +39.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:13: Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted for a TD Jaylin Alderman return for 66 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK) — LOU win probability +20.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 12:35LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:39LOU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:45UCF 4th & 6 at LOU 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    66.3%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:22UCF 4th & 1 at LOU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−0.8
    83% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:50LOU 4th & 4 at UCF 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−1.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:03UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:59LOU 4th & 20 at LOU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−2.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:53UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:59LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:37UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−1.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:40UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−2.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:44LOU 4th & 7 at LOU 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−1.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:29LOU 4th & 4 at LOU 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    53.5%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:05UCF 4th & 6 at LOU 45, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    48.0%−5.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.8%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:24UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 30, down 7
    Close callPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:40LOU 4th & 3 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−0.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UCF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:22UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:47LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:22UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:38LOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:22LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:59UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:57LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:25UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:15LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:21UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−3.4
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:13LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:1834% → 35%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 14:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+7
34.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 7 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
34.5%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
34.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 4 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+3
35.0%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 3 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-3
35.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
2 plays · 41 yds · 0:0865% → 66%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
34.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Isaiah BowserSimilar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
34.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 41 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:3534% → 35%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
34.3%
Malik Cunningham run for 17 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
34.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Duane MartinSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
34.4%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+5
34.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 2
50
0
34.5%
Mark Vassett punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Amari Johnson at the UCF 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 3:4266% → 66%
Q1 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+21
34.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 21 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
34.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 9 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-5
33.9%
UCF Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+11
34.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Kenderick Duncan) to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
33.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 12
50
+3
33.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+3
33.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 3 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 7:37
4TH & 6
OPP 44
+5
33.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Offside (Ashton Gillotte) to the Lvile 39Similar
Q1 7:24
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-5
33.9%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Jake Hescock) to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
34.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 94 yds · 4:5034% → 41%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
34.4%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Lvile 8Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 8
OWN 8
0
34.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+18
34.0%
Malik Cunningham run for 18 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
34.5%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Braden Smith for 15 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
35.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for 12 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
35.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 6 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+27
35.8%
Jalen Mitchell run for 27 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
36.5%
Jalen Mitchell run for 4 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+3
36.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 3 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 1:47
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
40.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 7 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
10 plays · 52 yds · 2:0062% → 67%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
37.7%
Trillion Coles run for 4 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
37.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 4 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q1 0:48
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+6
37.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for 6 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
37.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+14
37.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 14 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
37.3%
Trillion Coles run for 5 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+2
37.3%
Trillion Coles run for 2 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+2
37.9%
Dillon Gabriel run for 2 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 14:22
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+15
33.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 15 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:3834% → 46%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.3%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
34.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Jordan WatkinsSimilar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+11
33.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 11 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
34.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Isaac Martin for 4 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 12:48
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+2
35.6%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+12
35.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 12 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
36.3%
Trevion Cooley run for 6 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
36.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
36.1%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+27
35.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jalen Mitchell for 27 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
37.2%
Malik Cunningham run for 8 yds to the UCF 2Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
45.5%
Jalen Mitchell run for 2 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:2759% → 58%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
41.0%
Trillion Coles run for 15 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
39.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Trillion Coles for 4 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q2 8:43
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-10
39.5%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Samuel Jackson) to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 16
OWN 34
-6
41.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Johnny Richardson for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 7:49
3RD & 22
OWN 28
+7
41.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Mark-Antony Richards for 7 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 15
OWN 35
0
42.4%
Andrew Osteen punt for 43 yds, downed at the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:5644% → 43%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
43.7%
Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+3
43.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 3 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+17
43.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 17 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
46.4%
Trevion Cooley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 39Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 11
OWN 39
0
45.9%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Marshon FordSimilar
Q2 3:38
3RD & 11
OWN 39
-9
44.6%
Malik Cunningham sacked by Josh Celiscar for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 2:59
4TH & 20
OWN 30
0
43.2%
Mark Vassett punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Amari Johnson at the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5659% → 56%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-12
41.4%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by C.J. Avery for a loss of 12 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 22
OWN 19
0
42.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Mark-Antony RichardsSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 22
OWN 19
+11
43.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 11 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
44.0%
Andrew Osteen punt for 26 yds, downed at the Lvile 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 1:2248% → 61%
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+28
47.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 28 yds to the UCF 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
49.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 2 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+14
49.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 14 yds to the UCF 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
49.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 1 yd to the UCF 11Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+10
50.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 10 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
60.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 1 yd for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 19 yds · 0:1443% → 45%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
56.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Amari Johnson for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+10
54.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Trillion Coles for 10 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:5543% → 60%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
57.3%
Isaiah Bowser run for 2 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+11
57.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 11 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
55.9%
Isaiah Bowser run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 13:44
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
55.8%
Isaiah Bowser run for 4 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+9
56.5%
Isaiah Bowser run for 9 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
56.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 2 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 12:13
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+12
55.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jaylon Robinson for 12 yds to the Lvile 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
55.0%
Trillion Coles run for 2 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+20
39.6%
Ryan O'Keefe pass complete to Dillon Gabriel for 20 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5248% → 46%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.7%
Jalen Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
48.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
47.0%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q3 9:59
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
45.7%
Mark Vassett punt for 40 yds, downed at the UCF 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1456% → 53%
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
44.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Alec Holler for 6 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 9:17
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+1
43.0%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-5
43.4%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Samuel Jackson) to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 8:02
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+3
46.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Mark-Antony Richards for 3 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 7:37
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
47.4%
Andrew Osteen punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:3150% → 74%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
49.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 22 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
53.9%
Jalen Mitchell run for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+5
55.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 5 yds to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
55.5%
Jalen Mitchell run for 3 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+25
55.7%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 25 yds to the UCF 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.7%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 3:1034% → 28%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
66.4%
Joey Gatewood run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
65.7%
Trillion Coles run for 6 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
65.9%
Trillion Coles run for 13 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
64.0%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Yasir Abdullah for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+5
67.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
68.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q3 1:40
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
71.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5374% → 75%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
74.2%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Ahmari Huggins-BruceSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
74.1%
Ahmari Huggins-Bruce run for 3 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
75.6%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+5
74.6%
Mark Vassett punt for 48 yds , Amari Johnson returns for 5 yds to the UCF 29 UCF Penalty, Illegal Block (Derek Gainous) to the UCF 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
5 plays · 77 yds · 1:1129% → 59%
Q3 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
71.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 14 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+29
70.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 29 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
65.5%
Johnny Richardson run for 21 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
64.9%
Johnny Richardson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 6Similar
Q4 14:25
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
41.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:4652% → 53%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
52.3%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Jeremiah Jean-Baptiste) to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
55.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
54.0%
Malik Cunningham run for 5 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+1
55.1%
Malik Cunningham run for 1 yd to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 12:29
4TH & 4
OWN 46
+3
53.3%
Maurice Burkley run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1857% → 52%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
43.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Ryan O'KeefeSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+1
44.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Johnny Richardson for 1 yd to the Lvile 48Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+3
45.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Trillion Coles for 3 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
47.7%
Andrew Osteen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 91 yds · 1:4253% → 86%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+27
52.5%
Malik Cunningham run for 27 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
55.6%
Hassan Hall run for 2 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 9:57
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+17
56.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 17 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
86.4%
Braden Smith pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 45 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3221% → 16%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
78.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Amari Johnson for 7 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
76.8%
Johnny Richardson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 7:49
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
80.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for no gain to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 7:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
84.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Braden Smith at the Lvile 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:3487% → 92%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
87.1%
Jalen Mitchell run for no gain to the Lvile 24Similar
Q4 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
87.2%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Josh Johnson for 9 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+10
88.1%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Jalen Mitchell for 10 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
90.5%
Hassan Hall run for 3 yds to the Lvile 46Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+4
90.9%
Hassan Hall run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:46
3RD & 3
50
0
92.5%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 3
50
0
91.5%
Mark Vassett punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Amari Johnson at the UCF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 2:1214% → 63%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+24
86.4%
Johnny Richardson run for 9 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Monty Montgomery) to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+23
84.1%
Johnny Richardson run for 23 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
81.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+6
78.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for 6 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
78.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Kaedin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+19
78.8%
Johnny Richardson run for 19 yds to the Lvile 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
77.2%
Trillion Coles run for 4 yds to the Lvile 6Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
37.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26INT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:5056% → 63%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
56.3%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 10 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
57.4%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Braden SmithSimilar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
56.9%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 13 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
62.8%
Malik Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 6 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
64.3%
Malik Cunningham pass incomplete to Justin MarshallSimilar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
62.7%
Malik Cunningham pass intercepted Tre'mon Morris-Brash return for no gain to the Lvile 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 6%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-66
83.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted for a TD Jaylin Alderman return for 66 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)Similar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
94.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Trevor Reid) to the Lvile 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
85.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 3 yds to the UCF 28 lat. to Amari Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 28 lat. to Alec Holler for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 28 lat. to Dillon Gabriel for no gain to the UCF 37 UCF Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Dillon Gabriel) to the UCF 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:21
Dillon Gabriel run for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)
-39.8
TD · Q4 9:15
Braden Smith pass complete to Trevion Cooley for 45 yds for a TD, (James Turner KICK)
+30.1
TD · Q4 14:25
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Brandon Johnson for 6 yds for a TD, (Daniel Obarski KICK)
-23.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com