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ILL

Illinois 14 at Virginia 42

UVA
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadILL aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:56 · Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Home team on offense+14.5Pregame prior+12.3Score differential+4.8Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 6:14: Justin Duenkel 31 yd FG MISSED — UVA win probability +4.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:17: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 6 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK) — ILL win probability +6.3 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:59: Chase Brown run for 21 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +10.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:04: Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK) — UVA win probability +8.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:06: Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK) — UVA win probability +5.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 11
  1. Q1 11:41ILL 4th & 2 at ILL 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:25ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:25UVA 4th & 1 at ILL 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    78.4%−0.7
    49% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:50UVA 4th & 8 at ILL 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    78.7%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:00ILL 4th & 12 at ILL 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:28UVA 4th & 15 at UVA 24, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:14UVA 4th & 9 at ILL 14, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:58ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 29, down 20
    Close callPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:58ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 29, down 20
    Close callPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:56ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.5%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:49ILL 4th & 18 at ILL 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:40ILL 4th & 20 at UVA 31, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:40ILL 4th & 20 at UVA 31, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:46ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 6, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:05UVA 4th & 17 at UVA 19, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:31UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 39, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:16ILL 4th & 10 at UVA 13, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:44UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:04UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:59ILL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:04UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:06UVA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:02UVA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1180% → 80%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
80.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 31 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+17
80.1%
Brennan Armstrong run for 17 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
80.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-5
80.1%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Wicks,Dontayvion) 5 yards from ILL27 to ILL32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+32
80.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 32 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:0320% → 20%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
80.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 1 yd to the Illin 24Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
80.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Chase Brown for 10 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
80.1%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 11:41
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
80.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:3780% → 82%
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
80.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 11 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+39
80.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 39 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
80.4%
Devin Darrington run for 2 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+28
81.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 28 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3919% → 19%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Chase Brown for 4 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
81.1%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
81.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
81.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 53 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:3582% → 84%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+23
82.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 23 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
82.4%
Mike Hollins run for 14 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
82.4%
Iraken Armstead run for 3 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+7
82.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 7 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+5
82.3%
Iraken Armstead run for 5 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+2
82.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
82.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
82.4%
Mike Hollins run for 2 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 8
OPP 29
0
82.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Keytaon ThompsonSimilar
Q1 3:50
4TH & 8
OPP 29
+46
84.4%
Justin Duenkel 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:5016% → 15%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
84.0%
Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+7
84.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daniel Barker for 7 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+9
83.7%
Joshua McCray run for 9 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
83.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Chase Brown for 2 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 12
OWN 45
0
84.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
84.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
84.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:3286% → 85%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
85.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Mike HollinsSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
85.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ronnie Walker Jr.Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
85.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Ra'Shaun HenrySimilar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 10
OWN 29
-5
85.2%
PENALTY UVA False Start 5 yards from UVA29 to UVA24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:28
4TH & 15
OWN 24
0
85.3%
Jacob Finn punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:5114% → 14%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
85.6%
Chase Brown run for 3 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
85.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Luke Ford for 4 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+8
85.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
85.4%
Joshua McCray run for 6 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+1
85.1%
Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
50
+16
85.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Chase Brown for 16 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
84.8%
Chase Brown run for 1 yd to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+33
85.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Deuce Spann for 33 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:5588% → 93%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 7 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
88.2%
Brennan Armstrong run for 2 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
88.0%
Keytaon Thompson run for 1 yd to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
88.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 21 yds to the VIRGINIA 44 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Prather Hudson) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
88.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 11 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
88.5%
Devin Darrington run for 18 yds to the Illin 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
88.5%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+4
88.5%
Keytaon Thompson run for 4 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+2
88.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 2 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 4
OPP 9
-5
87.9%
PENALTY UVA False Start (Bissinger,Joe) 5 yards from ILL09 to ILL14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
92.5%
Justin Duenkel 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:168% → 7%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
92.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Jakari Norwood for 4 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
92.3%
Chase Brown run for 2 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
92.3%
Artur Sitkowski run for 3 yds to the Illin 29Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
92.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 33Similar
Q2 3:58
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
92.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:4194% → 88%
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
94.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 6 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+14
94.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 14 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
94.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 12 yds to the Illin 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
94.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 18 yds to the Illin 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
94.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 1 yd to the Illin 13Similar
Q2 3:58
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+7
94.0%
Brennan Armstrong run for 7 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
87.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 6 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12END OF HALF
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:1714% → 13%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
86.2%
Artur Sitkowski run for 7 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
85.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 6 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
85.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 5 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-1
85.9%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Hunter Stewart for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-7
87.3%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Noah Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0113% → 25%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
87.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 14 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
86.5%
Jakari Norwood run for 8 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+17
85.7%
Jakari Norwood run for 17 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
85.9%
Sitkowski,Artur pass incomplete to Williams,Isaiah PENALTY UVA Pass Interference (Johnson,Anthony) 15 yards from UVA36 to UVA21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
75.5%
Chase Brown run for 21 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5580% → 90%
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.0%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
80.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Demick Starling for 3 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
79.5%
Armstrong,Brennan pass incomplete to Henry,Ra'Shaun PENALTY ILL Offside (Gay,Isaiah) 5 yards from UVA31 to UVA36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
80.7%
Dontayvion Wicks pass complete to Brennan Armstrong for 18 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
81.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 13 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
81.9%
Keytaon Thompson pass incomplete to Jelani WoodsSimilar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
81.9%
Armstrong,Brennan pass incomplete to Henry,Ra'Shaun broken up by Adams,Tony PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Adams,Tony) 15 yards from ILL33 to ILL18, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
81.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q3 12:59
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+11
81.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 11 yds to the Illin 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
81.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 3 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0811% → 11%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
88.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
88.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q3 7:56
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
89.3%
Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Billy Kemp IV at the Virg 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:5090% → 97%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
90.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 9 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+4
90.4%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Mike Hollins for 4 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
90.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Keytaon Thompson for 13 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
90.8%
Devin Darrington run for 2 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
90.7%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Iraken Armstead for no gain to the Illin 46Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+10
90.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 10 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+28
90.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Ra'Shaun Henry for 28 yds to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
90.8%
Brennan Armstrong pass incomplete to Dontayvion WicksSimilar
Q3 4:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.6%
Keytaon Thompson run for 8 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 2 yds · 3:173% → 2%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.2%
Joshua McCray run for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
97.0%
Joshua McCray run for 3 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
97.1%
Artur Sitkowski run for 1 yd to the Illin 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
97.4%
Chase Brown run for 7 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-15
97.4%
PENALTY ILL Personal Foul (Brown,Chase) 15 yards from ILL42 to ILL27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+7
97.6%
Jakari Norwood run for 7 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-7
97.5%
Artur Sitkowski sacked by Noah Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 27Similar
Q3 0:49
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
98.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:4998% → 99%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
98.4%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 2 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+35
98.3%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 35 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
98.6%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 6 yds to the Illin 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19DOWNS
14 plays · 45 yds · 3:372% → 1%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+18
98.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 18 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
98.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Casey Washington for 10 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
98.4%
Artur Sitkowski run for 6 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+4
98.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daniel Barker for 4 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
98.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Casey Washington for 2 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
98.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+15
98.4%
PENALTY UVA Personal Foul (Faumui,Aaron) 15 yards from UVA36 to UVA21, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
98.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
98.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 10
OPP 21
-15
98.3%
Sitkowski,Artur pass complete to Barker,Daniel for 11 yards to the UVA10 (Johnson,Anthony), out of bounds PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Washington,Casey) 15 yards from UVA21 to UVA36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 25
OPP 36
+5
98.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daniel Barker for 5 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 20
OPP 31
0
98.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 20
OPP 31
0
98.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20INT
3 plays · 37 yds · 1:1099% → 99%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
98.9%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 9 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+28
99.0%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Jelani Woods for 28 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.1%
Brennan Armstrong pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:441% → 1%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
99.0%
Chase Brown run for 5 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 5
OWN 6
0
99.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
99.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 5
OWN 6
0
99.1%
Blake Hayes punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:4499% → 100%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
99.1%
Mike Hollins run for 5 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+15
99.1%
PENALTY ILL Personal Foul (Gay,Isaiah) 15 yards from ILL41 to ILL26, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.2%
Brennan Armstrong pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
99.2%
Armstrong,Brennan pass intercepted by Martin,Jartavius at ILL09 Martin,Jartavius return 13 yards to the ILL22 (Hollins,Mike) PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Witherspoon,Devon) 15 yards from ILL26 to ILL11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
99.2%
Mike Hollins run for 1 yd to the Illin 10Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+5
99.2%
PENALTY ILL Personal Foul (Barnes,Tarique) 5 yards from ILL10 to ILL05, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
99.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Illin 4Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
99.2%
Wayne Taulapapa run for 1 yd to the Illin 3Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Wayne Taulapapa for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23INT
8 plays · 34 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Joshua McCray run for 6 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
99.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Carlos Sandy for 7 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
99.9%
Sitkowski,Artur pass incomplete to Hightower,Brian PENALTY UVA Pass Interference (Johnson,Anthony) 4 yards from ILL38 to ILL42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+17
99.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Patrick Bryant for 17 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Carlos SandySimilar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Patrick BryantSimilar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
99.9%
Iraken Armstead run for 6 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 16
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
Iraken Armstead run for 1 yd to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 17
OWN 19
0
99.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:05
4TH & 17
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Jacob Finn punt for 44 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
99.9%
Devin Darrington run for 2 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Ronnie Walker Jr. run for 4 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 2:59
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Jay Woolfolk pass incomplete to Luke WentzSimilar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Jacob Finn punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 66 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
100.0%
Jakari Norwood run for 3 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Khmari ThompsonSimilar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+15
100.0%
Sitkowski,Artur pass incomplete to Washington,Casey PENALTY UVA Pass Interference (Gaines,Elijah) 15 yards from ILL24 to ILL39, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
100.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Reggie Love III for 5 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
100.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+12
100.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 12 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+31
100.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Dalevon Campbell for 31 yds to the Virg 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Reggie Love IIISimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Carlos SandySimilar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
100.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Jafar ArmstrongSimilar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 10
OPP 13
0
100.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
100.0%
run for 2 yds to the Virg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:59
Chase Brown run for 21 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
-10.4
TD · Q3 9:04
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Billy Kemp IV for 2 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)
+8.5
TD · Q2 1:17
Brennan Armstrong pass complete to Dontayvion Wicks for 6 yds for a TD, (Justin Duenkel KICK)
-6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com