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Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreRUTG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:55 · Adam Korsak punt for 43 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 6:46: Kyle Monangai run for 11 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — RUTG win probability +3.3 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 0:24: Noah Vedral pass complete to Jovani Haskins for 30 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK) — RUTG win probability +19.0 pts (now 75%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- FG · Q4 10:28: Valentino Ambrosio 29 yd FG MISSED — RUTG win probability +6.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 8:19: Tommy DeVito run for 20 yds to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Personal Foul (Christian Izien) to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST down — SYR win probability +8.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 7:16: Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 15 — RUTG win probability +8.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 6 of 11RUTG made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 13:22SYR 4th & 14 at SYR 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snapGo for it45.1%−0.218% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.3%average punt
- Q1 11:36RUTG 4th & 27 at SYR 35, tiedClose callWent for it · 54.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.0%−0.17% to convertField goal54.1%45% to makePunt54.1%−0.1average punt
- Q1 3:55RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snapGo for it52.1%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.4%average punt
- Q2 14:09SYR 4th & 10 at RUTG 38, tiedClose callPunted · 48.6% before the snapGo for it48.5%30% to convertField goal48.5%−<0.138% to makePuntTheir call48.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 9:53RUTG 4th & 6 at RUTG 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 51.4% before the snapGo for it51.2%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.4%average punt
- Q2 7:14SYR 4th & 18 at SYR 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snapGo for it45.5%−3.310% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.8%average punt
- Q2 4:55RUTG 4th & 21 at RUTG 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snapGo for it47.1%−3.18% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.1%average punt
- Q2 2:44SYR 4th & 5 at SYR 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snapGo for it48.1%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.5%average punt
- Q2 1:27RUTG 4th & 1 at SYR 37, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call54.2%70% to convertField goal52.3%−1.940% to makePunt51.5%−2.8average punt
- Q2 0:09SYR 4th & 15 at RUTG 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.5% before the snapGo for it48.8%−1.916% to convertField goalTheir call50.7%66% to makePunt46.9%−3.8average punt
- Q3 14:02RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.9% before the snapGo for it41.9%−0.641% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.5%average punt
- Q3 13:01SYR 4th & 3 at SYR 8, up 3Close callPunted · 55.0% before the snapGo for it56.2%50% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.5%−0.7average punt
- Q3 13:01SYR 4th & 3 at SYR 8, up 3Close callPunted · 55.0% before the snapGo for it56.2%50% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.5%−0.7average punt
- Q3 13:01RUTG 4th & 2 at SYR 31, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call44.9%57% to convertField goal42.9%−2.054% to makePunt41.3%−3.6average punt
- Q3 4:38RUTG 4th & 4 at RUTG 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snapGo for it48.6%−0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.7%average punt
- Q3 3:19SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 19, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snapGo for it49.1%−2.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call51.4%average punt
- Q3 3:19RUTG 4th & 1 at SYR 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call52.4%71% to convertField goal47.1%−5.351% to makePunt45.0%−7.5average punt
- Q4 14:06SYR 4th & 12 at SYR 23, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snapGo for it24.7%−4.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.9%average punt
- Q4 10:28RUTG 4th & 7 at SYR 11, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snapGo for it76.9%−0.632% to convertField goalTheir call77.5%87% to makePunt67.7%−9.8average punt
- Q4 8:23RUTG 4th & 9 at SYR 9, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.6% before the snapGo for it82.6%−1.225% to convertField goalTheir call83.8%89% to makePunt74.5%−9.2average punt
- Q4 7:16SYR 4th & 10 at RUTG 41, down 10Close callPunted · 14.3% before the snapGo for it13.9%30% to convertField goal13.6%−0.332% to makePuntTheir call13.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 2:55RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 40, up 10Close callPunted · 91.3% before the snapGo for it90.8%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 2:55SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 20, down 10Close callWent for it · 6.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.6%−0.335% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.9%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q3 0:24RUTG Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.6%97% to makeGo for two66.4%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 7 yds · 1:3841% → 42%
RUTGDrive 2DOWNS5 plays · -25 yds · 1:4658% → 57%
SYRDrive 3FUMBLE10 plays · 52 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
RUTGDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 4:0057% → 55%
SYRDrive 5PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 4:4645% → 46%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.5%
PENALTY SYR Personal Foul offsetting RUT Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
44.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 12 yds to the Syrac 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
45.4%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 7 yds to the Syrac 49Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+13
45.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 13 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
45.9%
Sean Tucker run for no gain to the Rutgr 38 SYRACUSE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Rutgr 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 43
+5
46.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Luke Benson for 5 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
45.8%
James Williams punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Rutgr 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6PUNT12 plays · 36 yds · 4:1655% → 54%
Q2 14:09
3RD & 4
OWN 17
+5
45.6%
PENALTY SYR Offside 5 yards from RUT17 to RUT22, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
45.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 4 yds to the Rutgr 26Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+5
44.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 5 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
43.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 4 yds to the Rutgr 47Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+5
43.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 5 yds to the Syrac 48Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
45.6%
Adam Korsak punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Trebor Pena at the Syrac 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 7PUNT6 plays · -8 yds · 2:3947% → 46%
Q2 9:53
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-5
46.4%
PENALTY SYR Illegal Formation 5 yards from SYR17 to SYR12. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 10
OWN 12
-4
46.2%
Garrett Shrader sacked by Mohamed Toure for a loss of 4 yards to the Syrac 8Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 14
OWN 8
-4
45.3%
PENALTY SYR Illegal Formation 4 yards from SYR08 to SYR04. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 2:1956% → 52%
Q2 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
44.1%
Noah Vedral sacked by McKinley Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the Rutgr 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 2:1149% → 47%
Q2 4:55
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+3
47.2%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Courtney Jackson for 3 yds to the Syrac 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10DOWNS5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1758% → 57%
Q2 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
42.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Jamier Wright-Collins for 9 yds to the Syrac 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11FG11 plays · 34 yds · 1:1851% → 53%
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+11
50.5%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sharod Johnson for 11 yds to the Rutgr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
52.8%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Sean Tucker for 10 yds to the Rutgr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+18
52.6%
Garrett Shrader pass complete to Taj Harris for 18 yds to the Rutgr 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5846% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
53.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Jovani Haskins for 3 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0155% → 53%
Q3 14:02
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+7
53.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sharod Johnson for 7 yds to the Syrac 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15TD16 plays · 63 yds · 6:1547% → 47%
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
53.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 4 yds to the Rutgr 41Similar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
51.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 7 yds to the Syrac 45Similar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
51.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for no gain to the Syrac 39Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
51.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 9 yds to the Syrac 30Similar
Q3 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
49.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aron Cruickshank for 5 yds to the Syrac 23Similar
Q3 13:01
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+5
49.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 5 yds to the Syrac 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 14
OPP 22
+8
56.0%
Vedral,Noah pass complete to Jones,Shameen for 8 yards to the SYR14 (Jones,Mikel) PENALTY RUT Holding offsetting SYR Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 14
OPP 22
0
56.0%
PENALTY SYR UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 11 yard from SYR22 to SYR11, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
52.7%
Kyle Monangai run for 11 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16TD4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5260% → 60%
Q3 6:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+51
59.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 51 yds to the Rutgr 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1150% → 48%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18PUNT4 plays · -15 yds · 1:1954% → 51%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
53.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Taj Harris for 3 yds to the Syrac 22Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 22
-3
53.7%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Ifeanyi Maijeh for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 19Similar
Q3 3:19
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
51.3%
James Williams punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Aron Cruickshank at the Syrac 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19TD6 plays · 41 yds · 2:5555% → 75%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
45.2%
Noah Vedral sacked by Marlowe Wax for a loss of 3 yards to the Syrac 44Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+11
46.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 11 yds to the Syrac 33Similar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
24.9%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Jovani Haskins for 30 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5431% → 28%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
30.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Cooper Lutz for 3 yds to the Syrac 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
31.5%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Avery Young for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 23Similar
Q4 14:06
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+3
27.7%
Colby Barker punt for 8 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Syrac 31 SYRACUSE Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21FG8 plays · 15 yds · 3:3879% → 85%
Q4 11:16
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+5
21.1%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Jovani Haskins for 5 yds to the Syrac 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 22FUMBLE1 play · -10 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
16.7%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Mayan Ahanotu for a loss of 10 yards to the Syrac 10 Tommy DeVito fumbled, recovered by Rutgr CJ Onyechi , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23FG5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0588% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 35 yds · 1:0315% → 15%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+35
15.2%
Tommy DeVito run for 20 yds to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Personal Foul (Christian Izien) to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 25PUNT12 plays · 29 yds · 4:2193% → 96%
Q4 7:16
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+6
5.9%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 6 yds to the Rutgr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 26INT7 plays · 26 yds · 2:144% → 3%
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
4.3%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Julius Turner for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 12Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+5
4.2%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Tucker for 5 yds to the Syrac 17Similar
Q4 2:55
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+3
4.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Sean Tucker for 3 yds to the Syrac 20Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
4.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Cooper Lutz for 6 yds to the Syrac 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 27END OF 4TH QUARTER1 play · -3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:24
Noah Vedral pass complete to Jovani Haskins for 30 yds for a TD, (Valentino Ambrosio KICK)
-19
KEY PLAY · Q4 8:19
Tommy DeVito run for 20 yds to the Rutgr 44 for a 1ST down RUTGERS Penalty, Personal Foul (Christian Izien) to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST down
+8.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:16
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 15
-8.2