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APP

App State 23 at Miami 25

MIA
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadAPP aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreAPP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Lou Hedley punt for 37 yds, downed at the AppSt 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore differential
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior+17.4Home team on offense+1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.1Blowout margin−0.5Score differential−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:07: Jalen Virgil 100 Yd Kickoff Return (Chandler Staton Kick) — APP win probability +9.6 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:32: Cam'Ron Harris run for 12 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +10.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 9:15: Andres Borregales 38 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +6.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:48: Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 3 yds for a TD, (TEAM fumbled) — APP win probability +31.1 pts (now 64%) (top driver: APP has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:04: Andres Borregales 43 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +22.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10APP made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:39APP 4th & 12 at APP 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:38MIA 4th & 6 at APP 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    69.7%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:20APP 4th & 2 at MIA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.4%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    27.5%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:43MIA 4th & 18 at APP 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:53APP 4th & 8 at APP 26, tied
    Close callWent for it · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.8%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    32.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 44, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:31APP 4th & 12 at midfield, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:19MIA 4th & 8 at APP 10, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    88% to make
    Punt
    63.7%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:38MIA 4th & 6 at APP 18, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    56.1%−6.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:58APP 4th & 6 at APP 24, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−1.0
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:36MIA 4th & 18 at MIA 40, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−2.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:21APP 4th & 5 at MIA 5, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.8%
    92% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−9.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:30MIA 4th & 6 at midfield, up 2
    Close callPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.2%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:08APP 4th & 7 at APP 40, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:54MIA 4th & 23 at APP 36, up 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.0 ptsPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−4.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:20APP 4th & 8 at APP 4, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−2.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:15MIA 4th & 11 at APP 21, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−4.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%
    74% to make
    Punt
    49.5%−17.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:04MIA 4th & 4 at APP 26, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−9.2
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−26.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:55APP 4th & 6 at APP 47, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.9%−6.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2APP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:09MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:20APP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:07APP Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 13:32MIA Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
APPDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:0927% → 27%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 2 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
72.8%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 30Similar
Q1 13:42
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-4
72.8%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the AppSt 25Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
72.7%
Chase Brice sacked by Jahfari Harvey for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 23Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
72.7%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 40 yds, downed at the MiaFl 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5273% → 72%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
72.6%
D'Eriq King run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+9
72.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 9 yds to the AppSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
72.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for no gain to the AppSt 47Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
72.7%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the AppSt 42Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-1
72.7%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 43Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 6
OPP 43
0
72.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
72.2%
Lou Hedley punt for 41 yds, downed at the AppSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 3INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:2228% → 28%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
72.1%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 7
OWN 5
0
72.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q1 9:58
3RD & 7
OWN 5
0
72.2%
Chase Brice pass intercepted Amari Carter return for no gain to the AppSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 4TD
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4173% → 74%
Q1 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
72.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the AppSt 6 for a 1ST down APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (3 Yards) to the AppSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
72.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the AppSt 1Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.3%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 8
OWN 35
-15
73.8%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 5TD
10 plays · 69 yds · 3:3027% → 30%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
73.5%
Camerun Peoples run for 11 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
73.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 7 yds to the AppSt 49Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
73.1%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
73.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Camerun PeoplesSimilar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+11
73.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 11 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
73.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 6
OPP 32
-1
72.7%
Camerun Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+5
73.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 5 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+28
70.5%
Camerun Peoples run for 28 yds for a TD, (Chandler Staton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 1:2671% → 70%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
70.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Dee WigginsSimilar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+20
70.8%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 20 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
71.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 18 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
71.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Xavier RestrepoSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-3
71.8%
D'Eriq King run for 7 yds to the AppSt 33 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the AppSt 43Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 13
OPP 43
-5
71.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AppSt 48Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 18
OPP 48
0
71.2%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 18
OPP 48
0
70.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q1 3:43
4TH & 18
OPP 48
0
70.2%
Lou Hedley punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 7SF
7 plays · -9 yds · 2:3229% → 28%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
70.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Jalen Virgil for 6 yds to the AppSt 15Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+1
70.2%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 16Similar
Q1 2:15
3RD & 3
OWN 16
+8
70.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 8 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
69.6%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the AppSt 27Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-1
69.4%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 26Similar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
69.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Malik WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:53
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
71.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 26 yards for a SAFETY TEAM fumbled, recovered by AppStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3072% → 71%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
71.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 5 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
72.0%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
71.5%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
70.6%
Lou Hedley punt for 37 yds, downed at the AppSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:0929% → 29%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
70.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 9 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+3
70.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 3 yds to the AppSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
70.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Christan Horn for 9 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 1
OWN 40
-3
69.4%
Camerun Peoples run for a loss of 3 yards to the AppSt 37Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+15
70.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 15 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
68.7%
Nate Noel run for no gain to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-2
68.7%
Nate Noel run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 12
50
0
69.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 12
50
0
70.7%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 36 yds, downed at the MiaFl 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 10FG
14 plays · 76 yds · 3:5471% → 75%
Q2 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
70.7%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+15
70.7%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete to Smith, Key'Shawn, PENALTY APP STATE pass interference 15 yards to the MIAMI27, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
71.1%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 9:33
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+29
70.8%
D'Eriq King run for 29 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
72.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the AppSt 40Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+2
72.7%
Donald Chaney Jr. run for 2 yds to the AppSt 38Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+3
72.4%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the AppSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
73.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 11 yds to the AppSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
73.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 12 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
73.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-1
73.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 13Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+8
73.1%
D'Eriq King run for 8 yds to the AppSt 5Similar
Q2 6:23
4TH & 3
OPP 5
-5
72.1%
Harris, Cam'Ron rush for 5 yards to the APP STATE0, PENALTY MIAMI illegal formation 5 yards to the APP STATE10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
74.5%
Andres Borregales 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 2:1366% → 66%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+36
65.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 36 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
50
+5
68.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
68.5%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+8
68.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 8 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
68.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
68.3%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the AppSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
69.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the AppSt 17Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-1
69.3%
Cam'Ron Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 18Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
67.3%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
66.0%
Andres Borregales 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Caleb SpurlinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3437% → 36%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
63.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
63.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Nate Noel for 3 yds to the AppSt 23Similar
Q2 2:40
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+1
63.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 1 yd to the AppSt 24Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+14
64.1%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 42 yds , Tyrique Stevenson returns for 14 yds to the MiaFl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:1666% → 62%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
66.2%
D'Eriq King run for no gain to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
65.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q2 1:42
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-8
63.7%
D'Eriq King sacked by T.D. Roof for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q2 1:36
4TH & 18
OWN 40
0
62.3%
Lou Hedley punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:2437% → 41%
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
63.0%
Nate Noel run for 8 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+5
61.9%
Chase Brice run for 5 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
62.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 12 yds to the AppSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
59.3%
Camerun Peoples run for a loss of 1 yard to the AppSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1162% → 77%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
62.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 17 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
64.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
63.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+33
63.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 33 yds to the AppSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
66.4%
D'Eriq King run for 10 yds to the AppSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
76.5%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 12 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 17FG
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:0228% → 34%
Q3 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
71.7%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 9 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
69.7%
Camerun Peoples run for 8 yds to the AppSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
69.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 2
50
+1
68.0%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
68.5%
Chase Brice run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+18
68.2%
Camerun Peoples run for 18 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
66.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Henry Pearson for 23 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
66.7%
Camerun Peoples run for no gain to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
66.7%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Mike EvansSimilar
Q3 9:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
67.9%
Jalen Virgil run for no gain to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q3 9:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
65.9%
Chandler Staton 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3369% → 68%
Q3 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
68.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 4 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 8:41
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+7
70.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
71.0%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
71.2%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+1
69.7%
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:30
4TH & 6
50
0
67.9%
Lou Hedley punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Thomas Hennigan at the AppSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:1133% → 33%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
67.2%
Nate Noel run for 6 yds to the AppSt 19Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+3
66.6%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+5
67.4%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the AppSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
65.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+5
66.3%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+5
66.0%
Chase Brice pass complete to Mike Evans for 5 yds to the AppSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
64.5%
Nate Noel run for 2 yds to the AppSt 39Similar
Q3 2:54
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
63.2%
Nate Noel run for 1 yd to the AppSt 40Similar
Q3 2:16
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
64.3%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+42
66.9%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 42 yds , Xavier Restrepo returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:0567% → 67%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
67.0%
D'Eriq King run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+19
67.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 19 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
71.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 13 yds to the AppSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
71.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 6 yds to the AppSt 34Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+2
72.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 2 yds to the AppSt 32Similar
Q3 0:04
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+4
71.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 4 yds to the AppSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
72.8%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete to Harley, Mike, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (Harley, Mike) 15 yards to the APP STATE43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 25
OPP 43
0
69.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for no gain to the AppSt 43Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 25
OPP 43
-2
69.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for a loss of 2 yards to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 27
OPP 45
+9
67.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 9 yds to the AppSt 36Similar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 23
OPP 36
0
67.0%
Lou Hedley punt for 34 yds, downed at the AppSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1033% → 30%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
67.3%
Camerun Peoples run for 1 yd to the AppSt 3Similar
Q4 11:55
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+1
67.6%
Chase Brice run for 1 yd to the AppSt 4Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
69.1%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 8
OWN 4
+13
70.4%
Xavier Subotsch punt for 42 yds , Tyrique Stevenson returns for 13 yds to the AppSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22FG
5 plays · 12 yds · 1:5074% → 78%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
74.0%
D'Eriq King run for 13 yds to the AppSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-4
74.0%
D'Eriq King sacked by T.D. Roof for a loss of 4 yards to the AppSt 24Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 14
OPP 24
+2
72.4%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the AppSt 22Similar
Q4 9:35
3RD & 12
OPP 22
+1
71.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 1 yd to the AppSt 21Similar
Q4 9:15
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+38
77.5%
Andres Borregales 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 23TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2729% → 64%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
71.1%
APPALACHIAN ST Penalty, False Start (Cooper Hodges) to the AppSt 20Similar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+11
71.3%
Chase Brice pass complete to Thomas Hennigan for 11 yds to the AppSt 31Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
68.9%
Nate Noel run for 5 yds to the AppSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
71.2%
Nate Noel run for 9 yds to the AppSt 45Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+7
67.4%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 7 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
68.6%
Camerun Peoples run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 12
50
+41
71.2%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 41 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
66.9%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 6 yds to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q4 5:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.8%
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 3 yds for a TD, (TEAM fumbled)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 3:1450% → 78%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
49.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 2 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+7
49.0%
D'Eriq King run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+15
48.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 15 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
54.4%
D'Eriq King run for no gain to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 4:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+12
52.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 12 yds to the AppSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
56.1%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 13 yds to the AppSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
58.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 4 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
57.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+2
55.5%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the AppSt 26Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+43
77.8%
Andres Borregales 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
APPDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:5531% → 26%
Q4 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.3%
Nate Noel run for 3 yds to the AppSt 28Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
68.1%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 15 yds to the AppSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
68.0%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+4
70.6%
Chase Brice pass complete to Corey Sutton for 4 yds to the AppSt 47Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 6
OWN 47
0
68.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Jalen VirgilSimilar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
73.8%
Chase Brice pass incomplete to Corey SuttonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26END OF GAME
5 plays · -23 yds · 0:2591% → 92%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-12
91.2%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 12 yards to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 22
OWN 41
-4
89.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q4 0:24
3RD & 26
OWN 37
-7
92.2%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:48
Chase Brice pass complete to Malik Williams for 3 yds for a TD, (TEAM fumbled)
-31.1
FG · Q4 2:04
Andres Borregales 43 yd FG GOOD
+22.3
TD · Q3 13:32
Cam'Ron Harris run for 12 yds for a TD, (Andres Borregales KICK)
+10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com