2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadKENN aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreKENN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:41 · Xavier Shepherd pass complete to Adeolu Adeleke for 39 yds for a TD (Nathan Robertson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:48: Jordan Domineck 70 Yd Fumble Return (Brent Cimaglia Kick) — GT win probability +1.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- FG · Q2 10:30: Brent Cimaglia 31 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +1.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 6:08: Nathan Robertson 46 yd FG GOOD — KENN win probability +1.8 pts (now 9%) (top driver: KENN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:13: Jordan Yates pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 4 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — GT win probability +4.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:19: Jordan Yates pass complete to Kalani Norris for 16 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK) — GT win probability +2.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 4KENN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 11:33KENN 4th & 7 at KENN 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snapGo for it10.9%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.9%average punt
- Q1 0:19KENN 4th & 9 at KENN 38, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.1%average punt
- Q2 10:30GT 4th & 3 at KENN 14, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 90.8% before the snapGo for it90.6%51% to convertField goalTheir call90.4%−0.284% to makePunt87.8%−2.9average punt
- Q2 6:08KENN 4th & 4 at GT 29, down 17Close callKicked a field goal · 8.4% before the snapGo for it8.4%48% to convertField goalTheir call8.1%−0.458% to makePunt5.5%−3.0average punt
- Q2 1:49KENN 4th & 6 at KENN 40, down 21Close callPunted · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.3%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 10:13KENN 4th & 15 at KENN 30, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.516% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q3 8:18GT 4th & 2 at GT 47, up 28Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snapGo for it99.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.4%−0.1average punt
- Q3 5:08GT 4th & 21 at KENN 41, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.19% to convertField goal99.7%−<0.132% to makePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 1:39KENN 4th & 4 at KENN 43, down 28Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 0:31GT 4th & 4 at GT 28, up 28Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 10:14KENN 4th & 4 at KENN 46, down 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 8:41KENN 4th & 3 at GT 39, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%53% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.136% to makePunt0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:54KENN 4th & 14 at KENN 21, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:53KENN 4th & 7 at KENN 28, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6KENN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 8:49GT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.0%97% to makeGo for two89.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:48GT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.5%97% to makeGo for two90.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:13GT Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.2%97% to makeGo for two96.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:19GT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:22GT Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:14KENN Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:41KENN Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.1%97% to makeGo for two1.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:53GT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENNDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 22 yds · 3:278% → 9%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
92.4%
Xavier Shepherd pass complete to Caleb O'Neal for 16 yds to the Ksaw 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
-12
92.4%
Xavier Shepherd run for a loss of 12 yards to the Ksaw 47 fumbled, recovered by Ksaw Adeolu AdelekeSimilar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
91.5%
Ben Moran punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kyric McGowan at the GTech 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2TD8 plays · 81 yds · 2:4492% → 92%
Q1 11:33
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+30
91.6%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Malachi Carter for 30 yds to the Ksaw 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 3FUMBLE RETURN TD8 plays · 45 yds · 5:019% → 9%
Q1 5:16
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+12
90.4%
Xavier Shepherd pass complete to Isaac Foster for 12 yds to the GTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 3:298% → 8%
Q1 3:48
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
91.9%
Xavier Shepherd pass complete to Nykeem Farrow for no gain to the Ksaw 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5FG13 plays · 52 yds · 4:3092% → 94%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
92.4%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 11 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
92.7%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 13 yds to the Ksaw 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
92.7%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Dontae Smith for 7 yds to the Ksaw 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 6FG9 plays · 46 yds · 4:227% → 9%
Q2 10:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+22
93.3%
Xavier Shepherd pass complete to Nykeem Farrow for 22 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7TD8 plays · 43 yds · 2:4892% → 97%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
92.4%
YATES, Jordan pass to the left incomplete intended for MCGOWAN, Kyric thrown to the KSU18. PENALTY KSU Offsides on MYERS, Jahon enforced 5 yards from the KSU48 to the KSU43 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+6
92.4%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Nate McCollum for 6 yds to the Ksaw 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+20
92.2%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Kalani Norris for 20 yds to the Ksaw 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.8%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 4 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 15 yds · 1:244% → 4%
Q2 3:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
96.1%
SHEPHERD, Xavier sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the KSU19 (JACKSON, Quez). PENALTY GT Holding on THOMAS, Juanyeh enforced 10 yards from the KSU26 to the KSU36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+6
96.3%
Xavier Shepherd pass complete to Iaan Cousin for 6 yds to the Ksaw 40Similar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
96.2%
Ben Moran punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Kyric McGowan at the GTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9END OF HALF5 plays · 10 yds · 1:5897% → 97%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
96.9%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Malachi Carter for 10 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3297% → 99%
Q3 14:51
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+14
97.0%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Azende Rey for 14 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
97.1%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 32 yds to the Ksaw 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
97.1%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 10 yds to the Ksaw 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+16
99.3%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Kalani Norris for 16 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 2:061% → 1%
Q3 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
99.3%
Xavier Shepherd pass complete to Will Haigler for 6 yds to the Ksaw 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.3%
Xavier Shepherd sacked by Jordan Domineck for 0 yards to the Ksaw 30Similar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 15
OWN 30
0
99.5%
Ben Moran punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kyric McGowan at the GTech 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
KENNDrive 13INT3 plays · 1 yds · 1:260% → 0%
GTDrive 14PUNT3 plays · -11 yds · 1:44100% → 100%
KENNDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 23 yds · 3:290% → 0%
Q3 1:39
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Ben Moran punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kyric McGowan at the GTech 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q3 0:31
4TH & 4
OWN 28
+46
99.8%
David Shanahan punt for 46 yds , Nykeem Farrow returns for 46 yds to the GTech 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 17INT2 plays · -2 yds · 0:080% → 0%
GTDrive 18TD2 plays · 44 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
KENNDrive 19TD8 plays · 75 yds · 4:080% → 0%
KENNDrive 20TD4 plays · 46 yds · 1:300% → 1%
Q4 8:41
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+39
99.1%
Xavier Shepherd pass complete to Adeolu Adeleke for 39 yds for a TD (Nathan Robertson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21TD4 plays · 42 yds · 1:4699% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 22PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:590% → 0%
Q4 4:54
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Ben Moran punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Kyric McGowan at the Ksaw 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 23FUMBLE4 plays · 24 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q4 4:54
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+19
99.9%
Jordan Yates pass complete to Peje' Harris for 19 yds to the Ksaw 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENNDrive 24PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:410% → 0%
Q4 1:53
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
100.0%
Ben Moran punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kyric McGowan at the GTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER4 plays · 38 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:13
Jordan Yates pass complete to Kyric McGowan for 4 yds for a TD, (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+4.4
TD · Q3 12:19
Jordan Yates pass complete to Kalani Norris for 16 yds for a TD (Brent Cimaglia KICK)
+2.2
FG · Q2 6:08
Nathan Robertson 46 yd FG GOOD
-1.8