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JXST

Jacksonville State 20 at Florida State 17

FSU
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadJXST aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreJXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:14 · Jack Dawson punt for 41 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 135Pregame prior+20.6Home team on offense+12.8Garbage-time factor+0.9Score differential+3.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Blowout margin+1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:01: Jashaun Corbin run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +4.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 4:45: Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 23 yds for a TD, (Alen Karajic KICK) — JXST win probability +25.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:21: Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29 — FSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:23: Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson — JXST win probability +8.5 pts (now 25%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson for 59 yds for a TD — JXST win probability +68.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: JXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9JXST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 12:14FSU 4th & 4 at JXST 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:55JXST 4th & 8 at JXST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:16FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:27JXST 4th & 22 at JXST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:06FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:27FSU 4th & 10 at FSU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.0%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:19JXST 4th & 9 at JXST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:08FSU 4th & 8 at FSU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:38JXST 4th & 13 at JXST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:19JXST 4th & 1 at JXST 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:07FSU 4th & 22 at FSU 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−2.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:32JXST 4th & 2 at JXST 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.2
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:20FSU 4th & 15 at JXST 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:14JXST 4th & 9 at JXST 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:43JXST 4th & 27 at FSU 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:49FSU 4th & 3 at JXST 3, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    86.5%−4.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:32FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 44, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%−2.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00JXST 4th & 10 at JXST 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.0%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2JXST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 11:08JXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:01FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:09FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:45JXST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:2097% → 97%
Q1 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
96.8%
Jashaun Corbin run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
96.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Camren McDonald for 5 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
96.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Malik McClain for 7 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 13:34
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+9
96.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
50
+8
96.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 8 yds to the JaxSt 42Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 2
OPP 42
0
96.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+2
96.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 44Similar
Q1 12:14
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
96.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:054% → 4%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
96.4%
Josh Samuel run for 5 yds to the JaxSt 49Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 5
OWN 49
0
96.3%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Ahmad EdwardsSimilar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-3
96.2%
Zerrick Cooper sacked by Kalen DeLoach for a loss of 3 yards to the JaxSt 46Similar
Q1 10:55
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
96.2%
Jack Dawson punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 2:3996% → 96%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
96.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 10
OWN 3
+11
96.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Malik McClain for 11 yds to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
96.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q1 9:34
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+7
96.0%
Jordan Travis run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
95.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 5 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-10
95.8%
(08:55) Travis,Jordan rush for 0 yards to the FSU29 (Hardie,Chris) PENALTY FSU Holding (Gibbons,Dillan) 10 yards from FSU29 to FSU19. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
95.7%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 15
OWN 19
0
95.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 15
OWN 19
0
95.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Quan Charleston at the JaxSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 1 yds · 3:305% → 5%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
95.5%
Pat Jackson run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 39Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
95.4%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Leeshoen JarrettSimilar
Q1 7:23
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+12
95.4%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 12 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
95.2%
Michael Pettway run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 3
OPP 42
-10
95.0%
(06:20) Jackson,Pat rush for 5 yards gain to the FSU37 (DeLoach,Kalen; Dent,Akeem) PENALTY JSU Holding (Brown,Treylen) 10 yards from FSU42 to JSU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 13
OWN 48
-10
95.0%
(05:56) Jackson,Pat rush for 3 yards gain to the FSU49 (Robinson,Jammie; Briggs Jr.,Dennis) PENALTY JSU Holding (Sanders,Ye'Majesty) 10 yards from JSU48 to JSU38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 23
OWN 38
-5
95.0%
(05:37) PENALTY JSU False Start (Sanders,Ye'Majesty) 5 yards from JSU38 to JSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 28
OWN 33
+6
94.9%
Pat Jackson run for 6 yds to the JaxSt 39Similar
Q1 4:33
3RD & 22
OWN 39
0
94.8%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Pat JacksonSimilar
Q1 4:27
4TH & 22
OWN 39
0
94.9%
Jack Dawson punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0895% → 94%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
94.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Darion Williamson for 4 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+4
94.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+2
94.7%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q1 3:06
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
94.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Quan Charleston at the JaxSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 6TD
16 plays · 79 yds · 6:326% → 11%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
94.3%
Zerrick Cooper run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 22Similar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
94.1%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:09
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+11
94.2%
Zerrick Cooper run for 11 yds to the JaxSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
93.8%
Zerrick Cooper sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the JaxSt 29Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+14
93.7%
Josh Samuel run for 14 yds to the JaxSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
93.1%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Jayson Jones for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:43
2ND & 3
50
+1
92.8%
Michael Pettway run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+4
92.8%
Zerrick Cooper run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.6%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:48
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
92.5%
Josh Samuel run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+23
92.4%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to P.J. Wells for 23 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
91.8%
Josh Samuel run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+10
91.7%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Michael Pettway for 10 yds to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
91.4%
Zerrick Cooper run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.9%
Josh Samuel run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alen Karajic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2190% → 89%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
89.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
89.2%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
89.0%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Quan Charleston at the JaxSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 8FUMBLE
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:3311% → 16%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
88.9%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Isaiah Montgomery for 12 yds to the JaxSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
88.1%
Pat Jackson run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+1
87.4%
Pat Jackson run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+4
87.3%
Pat Jackson run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
86.8%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Quan Charleston for 12 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
85.5%
Pat Jackson run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q2 7:14
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+5
85.0%
Zerrick Cooper run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
84.4%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Michael PettwaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 53 yds · 1:2087% → 91%
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
86.9%
JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Yul Gowdy) to the JaxSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
87.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 7 yds to the JaxSt 28Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+4
87.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the JaxSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
87.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 12 yds to the JaxSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
91.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:2811% → 12%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
88.7%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 14 yds to the JaxSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
87.7%
Josh Samuel run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 40Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
87.0%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Michael PettwaySimilar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
87.4%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Michael PettwaySimilar
Q2 3:19
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
88.1%
Jack Dawson punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0689% → 87%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
88.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-5
88.7%
(03:10) Milton,McKenzie pass complete to Williamson,Darion for 11 yards to the FSU29 (Gowdy,Yul; Harper,Nicario) PENALTY FSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Lucas,Dontae) 5 yards from FSU18 to FSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:32
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+7
88.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
87.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Keyshawn HeltonSimilar
Q2 2:08
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
87.2%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quan Charleston at the JaxSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:2115% → 13%
Q2 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
85.4%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Michael PettwaySimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
85.7%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Isaiah MontgomerySimilar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 10
OWN 42
-3
86.0%
Zerrick Cooper sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the JaxSt 39Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
87.0%
Jack Dawson punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:2189% → 92%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
89.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 9 yds to the JaxSt 36Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
89.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+27
88.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 27 yds to the JaxSt 9 for a 1ST down JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Illegal Substitution Face Mask (Yessman Green) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
89.4%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 3Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
89.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 2Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.3%
Wyatt Rector 2 Yd pass from McKenzie Milton (Ryan Fitzgerald Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
92.3%
run for a loss of 3 yards to the JaxSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:169% → 9%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.3%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Jacob Jenkins for 4 yds to the JaxSt 29Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
90.9%
Zerrick Cooper run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 32Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
91.1%
Josh Samuel run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 34Similar
Q3 13:19
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
91.1%
Jack Dawson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 13 yds · 3:0091% → 90%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
91.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
91.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-10
91.8%
(12:38) Milton,McKenzie rush for 5 yards gain to the FSU44, out of bounds PENALTY FSU Holding (Love-Taylor,Devontay) 10 yards from FSU39 to FSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:06
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+17
90.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 17 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
91.9%
(12:05) Ward,Treshaun rush for 16 yards gain to the JSU38 (Jemison,Jamari) PENALTY FSU Block Below Waist (Gibbons,Dillan) 15 yards from FSU46 to FSU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 25
OWN 31
0
90.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Camren McDonaldSimilar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 25
OWN 31
-10
90.8%
(11:34) Milton,McKenzie pass complete to McClain,Malik for 7 yards to the FSU38 (Clark,Marshall), out of bounds PENALTY FSU Holding (Lucas,Dontae) 10 yards from FSU31 to FSU21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 35
OWN 21
+10
90.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 25
OWN 31
+3
90.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 22
OWN 34
0
89.6%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 65 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2510% → 10%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
90.2%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
90.2%
Zerrick Cooper run for 4 yds to the JaxSt 5Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+10
90.7%
Pat Jackson run for 10 yds to the JaxSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
89.6%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Ahmad EdwardsSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+7
89.6%
Zerrick Cooper run for 7 yds to the JaxSt 22Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+1
89.7%
Pat Jackson run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 23Similar
Q3 7:32
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
90.0%
Jack Dawson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18FG
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:5791% → 91%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
91.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+8
90.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 8 yds to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+7
90.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Camren McDonald for 7 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
91.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+9
91.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Camren McDonald for 9 yds to the JaxSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
91.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Darion Williamson for 17 yds to the JaxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
91.8%
(05:15) Milton,McKenzie pass complete to Williamson,Darion for 0 yards to the JSU30 PENALTY FSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Wilson,Jordan) 5 yards from JSU30 to JSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:43
1ST & 15
OPP 35
0
91.3%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the JaxSt 35Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 15
OPP 35
0
91.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 15
OPP 35
0
90.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 15
OPP 35
+53
91.3%
Ryan Fitzgerald 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:488% → 8%
Q3 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.6%
Zerrick Cooper run for 3 yds to the JaxSt 28Similar
Q3 3:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
91.3%
(03:39) PENALTY JSU False Start (Wegener,Josh) 5 yards from JSU28 to JSU23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
91.6%
Josh Samuel run for 1 yd to the JaxSt 24Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+2
92.0%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Josh Samuel for 2 yds to the JaxSt 26Similar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
92.2%
Jack Dawson punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
92.1%
McKenzie Milton pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · -17 yds · 1:0811% → 8%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
89.0%
Pat Jackson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q3 1:31
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-10
88.6%
(01:37) Cooper,Zerrick pass incomplete to Wells,PJ PENALTY JSU Holding (Shaddix,Michael) 10 yards from FSU29 to FSU39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 17
OPP 39
0
90.2%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Kam WhiteSimilar
Q3 1:20
3RD & 17
OPP 39
-10
91.1%
(01:25) Cooper,Zerrick pass complete to Wells,PJ for 20 yards to the FSU19 (Brownlee,Jarvis) PENALTY JSU Holding (Jenkins,Jacob) 10 yards from FSU39 to FSU49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 27
OPP 49
0
91.1%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to P.J. WellsSimilar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 27
OPP 49
0
91.6%
Jack Dawson punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22DOWNS
18 plays · 89 yds · 5:4092% → 91%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
91.8%
Jashaun Corbin run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+5
91.9%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
92.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
91.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+12
91.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
92.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Wilson for 7 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+17
92.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 17 yds to the JaxSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-15
92.7%
(12:30) Milton,McKenzie pass incomplete to Parchment,Andrew PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (Parchment,Andrew) 15 yards from JSU40 to FSU45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 25
OWN 45
+3
92.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 3 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 22
OWN 48
+2
92.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 20
50
+30
91.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Camren McDonald for a 1ST down JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Targeting UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Markail Benton) to the JaxSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
92.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Darion Williamson for 11 yds to the JaxSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
92.7%
PENALTY FSU False Start (Lucas,Dontae) 5 yards from JSU09 to JSU14. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
92.6%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 12Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+11
92.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Wyatt Rector for 11 yds to the JaxSt 1Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+2
92.2%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 3Similar
Q4 9:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
91.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 23TD
17 plays · 97 yds · 5:048% → 36%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
92.1%
(09:49) PENALTY JSU False Start (Wegener,Josh) 1 yard from JSU03 to JSU02. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 11
OWN 2
+1
92.5%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Leeshoen Jarrett for 1 yd to the JaxSt 1Similar
Q4 8:57
2ND & 12
OWN 1
0
92.7%
JACKSONVILLE ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 12
OWN 1
+14
93.1%
(08:56) Cooper,Zerrick pass incomplete to Wells,PJ, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY FSU Pass Interference (Jones,Jarrian) 14 yards from JSU01 to JSU15, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-10
92.3%
Zerrick Cooper sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the JaxSt 5Similar
Q4 8:06
2ND & 20
OWN 5
+27
92.5%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to P.J. Wells for 27 yds to the JaxSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
91.8%
Zerrick Cooper run for 6 yds to the JaxSt 38Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+10
91.1%
(07:07) Cooper,Zerrick pass incomplete to Philyaw-Johnson,Damond PENALTY FSU Holding (Brownlee,Jarvis) 10 yards from JSU38 to JSU48, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
91.0%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Michael Pettway for 9 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+13
90.8%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to P.J. Wells for 13 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
90.3%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-5
90.5%
(06:08) Cooper,Zerrick pass complete to Pettway,Michael for 0 yards to the FSU30 PENALTY JSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Cangelosi,Zack) 5 yards from FSU30 to FSU35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 15
OPP 35
-3
90.9%
Zerrick Cooper sacked by Jermaine Johnson II for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 18
OPP 38
+15
92.4%
(05:24) Cooper,Zerrick pass intercepted by Brownlee,Jarvis at FSU29 QB hurried by DeLoach,Kalen, End Of Play PENALTY FSU Targeting (DeLoach,Kalen) 15 yards from FSU38 to FSU23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY. The previous play is under review. The ruling on the field is confirmed.Similar
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
89.5%
Ron Wiggins run for no gain to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
63.9%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 23 yds for a TD, (Alen Karajic KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 2:4981% → 84%
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
82.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 2 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
83.8%
(03:17) Milton,McKenzie pass incomplete to Helton,Keyshawn PENALTY JSU Offside (Coleman,DJ) 5 yards from FSU31 to FSU36, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
87.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
88.6%
Jashaun Corbin run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+1
85.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
83.8%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Quan Charleston at the JaxSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JXSTDrive 25TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 1:2325% → 92%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
75.3%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Damond Philyaw-JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+2
78.3%
Zerrick Cooper run for 2 yds to the JaxSt 19Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+11
79.5%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to P.J. Wells for 11 yds to the JaxSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
75.3%
Zerrick Cooper pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
77.1%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Ron Wiggins for 5 yds to the JaxSt 35Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
77.3%
Zerrick Cooper run for 6 yds to the JaxSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
73.7%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to Michael PettwaySimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
75.1%
Zerrick Cooper pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
76.9%
Zerrick Cooper pass incomplete to P.J. WellsSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+59
8.0%
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson for 59 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Damond Philyaw-Johnson for 59 yds for a TD
-68.9
TD · Q4 4:45
Zerrick Cooper pass complete to Ahmad Edwards for 23 yds for a TD, (Alen Karajic KICK)
-25.6
KEY PLAY · Q4 4:21
Lawrance Toafili run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 29
+10.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com