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NCAT

North Carolina A&T 17 at Duke 45

DUKE
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2021 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadNCAT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreNCAT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:30 · Michael Rivers punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Scott Boylan at the Duke 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.0+22.00−22.0−44.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Pregame prior+11.7Home team on offense+34.8Score differential+30.5Garbage-time factor+10.6Blowout margin+15.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:07: Kingsley Ifedi 1 Yd Run (Andrew Brown Kick) — NCAT win probability +2.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: NCAT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:03: Kingsley Ifedi 5 Yd Run (Andrew Brown Kick) — NCAT win probability +9.0 pts (now 23%) (top driver: NCAT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:03: Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +5.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:53: Gunnar Holmberg 1 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick) — DUKE win probability +4.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:46: Gunnar Holmberg run for 9 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK) — DUKE win probability +5.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5NCAT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:15DUKE 4th & 20 at DUKE 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  2. Q2 8:52NCAT 4th & 6 at DUKE 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.7%−0.3
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 7:51DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:40DUKE 4th & 4 at NCAT 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    81.6%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:25NCAT 4th & 8 at NCAT 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  6. Q3 7:50NCAT 4th & 6 at DUKE 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.3%
    90% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:23NCAT 4th & 10 at NCAT 25, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:54NCAT 4th & 3 at NCAT 47, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:40DUKE 4th & 10 at NCAT 18, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:30NCAT 4th & 8 at NCAT 46, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:40DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 41, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:36NCAT 4th & 7 at NCAT 36, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NCAT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:07NCAT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:38DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:17DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:03NCAT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:03DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:53DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 4:46DUKE Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:56DUKE Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:4194% → 93%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
93.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 6 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+4
93.8%
Mataeo Durant run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q1 14:25
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-5
93.6%
PENALTY DUK False Start (McIntyre,Maurice) 5 yards from DUK29 to DUK24. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 13
OWN 24
-7
93.6%
Gunnar Holmberg sacked by Devin Harrell for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 17Similar
Q1 13:15
4TH & 20
OWN 17
0
93.3%
Porter Wilson punt for 69 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 2TD
21 plays · 86 yds · 12:087% → 14%
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
93.4%
Jah-Maine Martin run for no gain to the NCAT 14Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
93.3%
Kingsley Ifedi run for 3 yds to the NCAT 17Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+7
93.3%
Kingsley Ifedi pass complete to Taymon Cooke for 7 yds to the NCAT 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
93.2%
Jah-Maine Martin run for 1 yd to the NCAT 25Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+3
93.1%
Kingsley Ifedi run for 3 yds to the NCAT 28Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+9
93.0%
Kingsley Ifedi pass complete to Korey Banks for 9 yds to the NCAT 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
92.8%
Kashon Baker run for 4 yds to the NCAT 41Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+10
92.5%
Kingsley Ifedi run for 10 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
92.3%
Jah-Maine Martin run for 1 yd to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+5
92.2%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 5 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 8:25
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+16
91.9%
Kingsley Ifedi pass complete to Kashon Baker for 16 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
91.5%
Kingsley Ifedi pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 1 yd to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+6
91.3%
Jah-Maine Martin run for 6 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 5
OPP 22
+6
91.1%
Kingsley Ifedi pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 6 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
90.6%
Kashon Baker run for 4 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+3
90.2%
Fredderick Graves run for 3 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+3
90.0%
Fredderick Graves run for 3 yds to the Duke 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
89.2%
Kingsley Ifedi run for 4 yds to the Duke 2Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.8%
Jah-Maine Martin run for 1 yd to the Duke 1Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
86.4%
Kingsley Ifedi 1 Yd Run (Andrew Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:2987% → 90%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+11
86.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 11 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
86.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 9 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
87.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
87.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+19
86.8%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 19 yds to the NCAT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
87.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 14 yds to the NCAT 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
89.7%
Mataeo Durant run for 19 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:2190% → 91%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
89.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Mataeo DurantSimilar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
89.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 12 yds to the NCAT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
89.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 2 yds to the NCAT 38Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+2
89.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the NCAT 36Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+35
89.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 35 yds to the NCAT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 5PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:2510% → 11%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
90.3%
Jah-Maine Martin run for 1 yd to the NCAT 36Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
90.3%
Kingsley Ifedi pass complete to Taymon Cooke for 1 yd to the NCAT 37Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+7
90.5%
Ifedi,Kingsley pass incomplete to Berkhalter,Sterling broken up by Blackwell,Josh, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY DUK Pass Interference (Blackwell,Josh) 7 yards from A&T37 to A&T44, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
90.0%
Ifedi,Kingsley pass intercepted by Blackwell,Josh at DUK30, End Of Play PENALTY DUK Pass Interference (Blackwell,Josh) 15 yards from A&T44 to DUK41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
89.8%
Kingsley Ifedi pass incomplete to Nicholas DobsonSimilar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+9
89.8%
Kingsley Ifedi run for 9 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 1
OPP 32
-5
89.7%
PENALTY A&T False Start (Lee,Ricky) 5 yards from DUK32 to DUK37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
89.9%
Kingsley Ifedi run for no gain to the Duke 37Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
90.2%
NC A&T Penalty, Delay Of Game (Korey Banks) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 6
OPP 37
0
89.4%
Michael Rivers punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Josh Blackwell at the Duke 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0190% → 89%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
89.9%
Jordan Waters run for 1 yd to the Duke 9Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+6
89.7%
Jordan Waters run for 6 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
89.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake MarwedeSimilar
Q2 7:51
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
89.4%
Porter Wilson punt for 45 yds, Korey Banks return 1 yard to NCAT 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 7TD
15 plays · 59 yds · 6:4811% → 23%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
89.3%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 7 yds to the NCAT 48Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+2
88.9%
Jah-Maine Martin run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 1
50
+2
88.9%
Kingsley Ifedi run for 2 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
88.8%
Kingsley Ifedi pass incomplete to Ron HuntSimilar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+11
89.0%
Kingsley Ifedi run for 11 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
88.8%
Kashon Baker run for 5 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+4
88.2%
Kashon Baker run for 4 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+1
88.7%
Kingsley Ifedi run for 1 yd to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
88.2%
Kashon Baker run for 1 yd to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+5
88.4%
Kingsley Ifedi pass complete to Taymon Cooke for 5 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+6
88.7%
Kingsley Ifedi pass complete to Korey Banks for 6 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
88.2%
DUKE Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Dorian Mausi) to the Duke 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
88.2%
Jah-Maine Martin run for 1 yd to the Duke 5Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
77.1%
Kingsley Ifedi 5 Yd Run (Andrew Brown Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
15 plays · 74 yds · 0:5583% → 90%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
82.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 10 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
83.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Cole FinneySimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
83.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 7 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+14
83.4%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 14 yds to the NCAT 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
84.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
84.3%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Darrell Harding Jr. for 6 yds to the NCAT 37Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 4
OPP 37
0
84.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Cole FinneySimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 4
OPP 37
+15
83.2%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 15 yds to the NCAT 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+20
84.9%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jalon Calhoun for 20 yds to the NCAT 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.6%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
88.8%
PENALTY A&T Roughing The Kicker (Howard,Kyin) 15 yards from DUK35 to DUK50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
50
-5
89.8%
PENALTY DUK Delay Of Game 5 yards from DUK50 to DUK45. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3212% → 11%
Q3 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
88.4%
Jah-Maine Martin run for 1 yd to the NCAT 7Similar
Q3 14:57
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+1
88.5%
Kingsley Ifedi run for 1 yd to the NCAT 8Similar
Q3 14:57
3RD & 8
OWN 8
0
88.9%
Kingsley Ifedi pass incomplete to Taymon CookeSimilar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 8
OWN 8
0
88.9%
Michael Rivers punt for 50 yds, Josh Blackwell return 29 yds to NCAT 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:3290% → 94%
Q3 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+28
89.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Nicky Dalmolin for 28 yds to the NCAT 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the NCAT 2Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.5%
Mataeo Durant run for 1 yd to the NCAT 1Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.7%
Gunnar Holmberg 1 Yd Run (Charlie Ham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 11FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:037% → 10%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
93.0%
PENALTY A&T False Start (Lee,Ricky) 5 yards from A&T25 to A&T20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+10
93.1%
Kashon Baker run for 10 yds to the NCAT 30Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+24
92.5%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 24 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
92.1%
Taymon Cooke run for 6 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+28
91.9%
Kingsley Ifedi run for 28 yds to the Duke 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
91.5%
Kashon Baker run for 4 yds to the Duke 8Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
91.5%
Kingsley Ifedi run for no gain to the Duke 8Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 6
OPP 8
0
92.0%
NC A&T Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:50
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
89.9%
Andrew Brown 26 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5991% → 97%
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 6 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
91.5%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 3 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
91.3%
Mataeo Durant run for 3 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+25
91.6%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 25 yds to the NCAT 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
92.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Eli Pancol for 18 yds to the NCAT 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
92.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the NCAT 18Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
92.0%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Jake BoboSimilar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+9
91.7%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Mataeo Durant for 9 yds to the NCAT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
97.1%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 9 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:234% → 4%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.2%
Kingsley Ifedi pass incomplete to Sterling BerkhalterSimilar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Kingsley Ifedi pass incomplete to Ron HuntSimilar
Q3 4:46
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
96.3%
Kingsley Ifedi pass incomplete to Korey BanksSimilar
Q3 4:23
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
96.4%
Michael Rivers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Scott Boylan at the Duke 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 2:2797% → 99%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
96.9%
NC A&T Penalty, Personal Foul (Janorris Robertson) to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+26
97.0%
Gunnar Holmberg run for 26 yds to the NCAT 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
97.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass complete to Jake Bobo for 7 yds to the NCAT 46Similar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
97.1%
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds to the NCAT 44Similar
Q3 4:23
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+5
97.0%
Mataeo Durant run for 5 yds to the NCAT 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
97.1%
Gunnar Holmberg pass incomplete to Eli PancolSimilar
Q3 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
97.1%
Jordan Waters run for 4 yds to the NCAT 35Similar
Q3 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.4%
Jordan Moore run for 9 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.3%
DUKE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NCAT 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.2%
Jah-Maine Martin run for 4 yds to the NCAT 44Similar
Q3 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
99.2%
Kingsley Ifedi run for 5 yds to the NCAT 49Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
99.3%
Jah-Maine Martin run for 2 yds to the NCAT 47Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
99.3%
Kingsley Ifedi pass incomplete to Nicholas DobsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:14100% → 100%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
99.5%
Nate Kyei-Donkor run for 5 yds to the NCAT 42Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
99.5%
Jordan Moore pass incomplete to Jontavis RobertsonSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+17
99.5%
Jordan Moore run for 2 yds to the NCAT 40 for a 1ST down NC A&T Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Herbert Booker) to the NCAT 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.5%
Jordan Moore pass incomplete to Jarett GarnerSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
99.5%
Jordan Moore run for 11 yds to the NCAT 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
99.5%
Nate Kyei-Donkor run for 4 yds to the NCAT 14Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
99.5%
Jordan Moore pass incomplete to Jontavis RobertsonSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+4
99.5%
Jordan Moore pass complete to Nate Kyei-Donkor for 4 yds to the NCAT 18Similar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
99.9%
Charlie Ham 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:100% → 0%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
DUKE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NCAT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.9%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 2 yds to the NCAT 46Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Kingsley Ifedi pass incomplete to Bhayshul TutenSimilar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Kingsley Ifedi pass complete to Quinzel Lockhart for no gain to the NCAT 46Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Michael Rivers punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Scott Boylan at the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:50100% → 100%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
99.9%
Luca Diamont run for 3 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+4
99.9%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+17
99.8%
Luca Diamont pass complete to Eli Pancol for 17 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Luca Diamont run for 2 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Luca Diamont run for 5 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Jaylen Coleman run for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
99.9%
Porter Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Korey Banks at the NCAT 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCATDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 6:040% → 0%
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
99.9%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 2 yds to the NCAT 15Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+5
99.9%
Fredderick Graves run for 5 yds to the NCAT 20Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Zachary Yeager pass complete to Fredderick Graves for 3 yds to the NCAT 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
99.9%
Fredderick Graves run for 1 yd to the NCAT 24Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+9
99.9%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 9 yds to the NCAT 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.9%
Bhayshul Tuten run for 5 yds to the NCAT 38Similar
Q4 8:40
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+3
99.9%
Fredderick Graves run for 3 yds to the NCAT 41Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 2
OWN 41
-5
99.9%
PENALTY A&T False Start (Ward,Melik) 5 yards from A&T41 to A&T36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Zachary Yeager pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for no gain to the NCAT 36Similar
Q4 2:36
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
100.0%
Michael Rivers punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Scott Boylan at the Duke 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20END OF 4TH QUARTER
5 plays · 33 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Jaylen Coleman run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+16
99.9%
Nakeie Montgomery run for 16 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Nakeie Montgomery run for no gain to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+12
99.9%
Nakeie Montgomery run for 12 yds to the NCAT 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
100.0%
Nate Kyei-Donkor run for 2 yds to the NCAT 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:03
Kingsley Ifedi 5 Yd Run (Andrew Brown Kick)
-9
TD · Q3 4:46
Gunnar Holmberg run for 9 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)
+5.4
TD · Q2 0:03
Mataeo Durant run for 2 yds for a TD, (Charlie Ham KICK)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com