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ND

Notre Dame 41 at Florida State 38

FSU
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 5, 2021 · Doak Campbell Stadium
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Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadND aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreND score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:31 · Jay Bramblett punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 28Pregame prior−15.3Home team on offense−2.4Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:05: Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK) — ND win probability +14.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:47: Jordan Travis pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 8 yds for a TD (Jordan Travis pass to Keyshawn Helton for Two-Point Conversion) — FSU win probability +16.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:36: Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK) — FSU win probability +32.6 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. FG · Q4 0:40: Ryan Fitzgerald 43 yd FG GOOD — FSU win probability +22.2 pts (now 62%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Jonathan Doerer 41 yd FG GOOD — ND win probability +22.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ND has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ND made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:49ND 4th & 1 at FSU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    66.6%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:30FSU 4th & 20 at FSU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:34ND 4th & 4 at FSU 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:02FSU 4th & 19 at FSU 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:31ND 4th & 7 at FSU 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 67.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    67.4%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:44ND 4th & 1 at FSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    62.1%−1.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:42FSU 4th & 8 at ND 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    39.1%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:44ND 4th & 10 at ND 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:02ND 4th & 6 at FSU 29, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.7%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:28FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:44ND 4th & 5 at ND 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−1.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:39FSU 4th & 2 at FSU 33, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:13FSU 4th & 2 at ND 28, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.9%−1.5
    60% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−7.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:19ND 4th & 9 at ND 38, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.9%−1.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:15ND 4th & 11 at ND 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%−7.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:40FSU 4th & 6 at ND 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−12.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−25.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5ND made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:49ND Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:12FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:05FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:21ND Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:36FSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    51.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:52ND Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:05ND Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:37ND Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:47FSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    15.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:36FSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.0 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NDDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5468% → 68%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
32.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
50
-5
32.4%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Zeke Correll) to the NDame 45Similar
Q1 13:48
1ST & 15
OWN 45
-2
32.7%
Jack Coan sacked by Jermaine Johnson II for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 43Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 17
OWN 43
+15
32.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 15 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
32.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 1 yd to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 12:49
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+41
32.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 41 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:5233% → 32%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
32.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 15
OWN 15
-5
32.5%
Travis, Jordan pass complete to Helton, Keyshawn for 10 yards to the FLORIDAST25, PENALTY FLORIDAST ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the FLORIDAST10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:42
2ND & 20
OWN 10
0
32.6%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 20
OWN 10
0
32.5%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Lawrance ToafiliSimilar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
32.4%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4068% → 68%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
32.3%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 48Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 4
OPP 48
0
32.2%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
32.3%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q1 10:34
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
32.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 2:1133% → 32%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
32.7%
Treshaun Ward run for no gain to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
32.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 19Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 6
OWN 19
-8
32.4%
Jordan Travis sacked by Jayson Ademilola and JD Bertrand for a loss of 8 yards to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 14
OWN 11
-5
32.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q1 8:02
4TH & 19
OWN 6
+4
32.2%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 53 yds , Kyren Williams returns for 4 yds to the NDame 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:1468% → 68%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
32.0%
Chris Tyree run for 1 yd to the NDame 46Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+9
32.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 9 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-4
31.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for a loss of 4 yards to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+7
32.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 7 yds to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 7
OPP 42
0
32.0%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
32.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 89 yds · 0:1333% → 36%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
32.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q1 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+89
36.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 89 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:0664% → 63%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.4%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
36.6%
Kyren Williams run for 7 yds to the NDame 32 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NDame 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
35.8%
Tyree, Chris rush for 1 yard to the NOTREDAME48, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding 10 yards to the NOTREDAME37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 20
OWN 37
+12
36.8%
Chris Tyree run for 12 yds to the NDame 49Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+6
36.1%
Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
35.9%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q1 1:44
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
36.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for no gain to the FlaSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:4839% → 39%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
39.3%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+1
39.5%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+9
38.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 9 yds to the NDame 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
40.5%
Jordan Travis sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 15
50
-5
39.5%
Jordan Travis sacked by Rylie Mills for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 20
OWN 45
+12
38.9%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 12 yds to the NDame 43Similar
Q2 13:42
4TH & 8
OPP 43
0
39.3%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:4661% → 59%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
38.7%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the NDame 11Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+1
38.8%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 12Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 5
OWN 12
-5
39.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 7 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NDame Jack CoanSimilar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 10
OWN 7
0
40.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 38 yds, downed at the NDame 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:2543% → 50%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
42.5%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Malik McClain for 21 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
43.1%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds to the NDame 22Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+20
43.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 20 yds to the NDame 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.4%
Jordan Travis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 11FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:5152% → 54%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
48.1%
Kyren Williams run for 6 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
47.8%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q2 8:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
48.3%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 8 yds to the NDame 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
48.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 15 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
47.7%
Jack Coan run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+6
47.6%
Chris Tyree run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
47.3%
Jack Coan sacked by Jermaine Johnson II for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 35Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 12
OPP 35
+2
48.4%
Chris Tyree run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+5
49.5%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Keir Thomas) to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q2 5:30
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-1
49.5%
Jack Coan run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 5:02
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+48
45.6%
Jonathan Doerer 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12INT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1247% → 47%
Q2 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
47.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Ontaria Wilson) to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q2 4:56
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-5
47.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Dillan Gibbons) to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+6
47.4%
Jashaun Corbin run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+6
47.5%
Jordan Travis run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
46.9%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted Kyle Hamilton return for no gain to the FlaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 13TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:0955% → 65%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
44.6%
Kyren Williams run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+15
44.7%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 15 yds to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
43.6%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
43.8%
Jack Coan run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q2 2:21
3RD & 4
OPP 23
+23
35.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Joe Wilkins Jr. for 23 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:4239% → 38%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
38.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by FlaSt Treshaun WardSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-2
38.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ontaria Wilson for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+12
38.0%
Treshaun Ward run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
38.2%
Alex Mastromanno punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kyren Williams at the NDame 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:2963% → 63%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
37.5%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 1 yd to the NDame 33Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
37.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Chris Tyree for 4 yds to the NDame 37Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
36.1%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Braden LenzySimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
37.4%
Jay Bramblett punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:2440% → 41%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
40.0%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 10 yds to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-13
40.6%
Jordan Travis sacked by Isaiah Foskey for a loss of 13 yards to the FlaSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:0940% → 51%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
40.3%
Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
41.4%
Jordan Travis run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+60
51.4%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 60 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 18TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2849% → 66%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
50.8%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 29 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
47.6%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
47.7%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q3 11:52
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+37
34.4%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 37 yds for a TD, (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:2639% → 39%
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-15
39.3%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted Kyle Hamilton return for no gain to the NDame 27 NOTRE DAME Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kyle Hamilton) to the NDame 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 20TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:5463% → 80%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
36.6%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 29Similar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 12
OWN 29
-5
37.9%
Jack Coan sacked by Quashon Fuller for a loss of 5 yards to the NDame 24Similar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 17
OWN 24
+55
39.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 55 yds to the FlaSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
33.9%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, False Start (Michael Carmody) to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+17
34.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kevin Austin Jr. for 17 yds to the FlaSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
33.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 1 yd to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
34.0%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q3 7:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
19.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Kyren Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 21INT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2023% → 23%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.4%
Jordan Travis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.3%
Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 30Similar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
22.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-4
22.8%
Jordan Travis pass intercepted Clarence Lewis return for 4 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 22TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:5481% → 93%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+28
19.2%
Jack Coan pass complete to Braden Lenzy for 24 yds to the FlaSt 8 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Face Mask (4 yards) (4 Yards) to the FlaSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
18.6%
Chris Tyree run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
6.9%
Chris Tyree run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Doerer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 23TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 5:4611% → 25%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.4%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Andrew ParchmentSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
11.1%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 17 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
12.0%
Jordan Travis run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+19
11.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 19 yds to the NDame 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
12.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds to the NDame 34Similar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+6
12.4%
Treshaun Ward run for 6 yds to the NDame 28Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 2
OPP 28
0
11.8%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Malik McClainSimilar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+4
11.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the NDame 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
11.6%
Jashaun Corbin run for 9 yds to the NDame 15Similar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 1
OPP 15
0
11.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for no gain to the NDame 15Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+1
9.8%
Treshaun Ward run for 1 yd to the NDame 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
10.3%
Treshaun Ward run for 13 yds to the NDame 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
10.7%
Jordan Travis run for no gain to the NDame 1Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
10.2%
Jashaun Corbin run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 3Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
8.3%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Baveon Johnson) to the NDame 8Similar
Q4 13:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
25.3%
Jordan Travis pass complete to Andrew Parchment for 8 yds for a TD (Jordan Travis pass to Keyshawn Helton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:2381% → 87%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
19.5%
Kyren Williams run for 2 yds to the NDame 27Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
19.3%
Jack Coan run for 4 yds to the NDame 31Similar
Q4 12:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+6
16.9%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 6 yds to the NDame 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
16.0%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the NDame 40Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 7
OWN 40
-2
14.6%
Kyren Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
14.1%
Jack Coan run for no gain to the NDame 38Similar
Q4 10:19
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
12.8%
Jay Bramblett punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 25TD
13 plays · 88 yds · 4:3615% → 50%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
15.0%
Lawrance Toafili run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
15.4%
Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 23Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+25
14.9%
Jordan Travis run for 25 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
17.1%
Jordan Travis pass incomplete to Jashaun CorbinSimilar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+22
16.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 22 yds to the NDame 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
19.5%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Kurt Hinish for a loss of 3 yards to the NDame 33Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 13
OPP 33
+9
18.1%
Jashaun Corbin run for 9 yds to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 7:28
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+5
17.9%
Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the NDame 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
18.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for a loss of 2 yards to the NDame 21Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 12
OPP 21
+1
17.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jashaun Corbin for 1 yd to the NDame 20Similar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 11
OPP 20
+15
15.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Keyshawn Helton for 15 yds to the NDame 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
17.7%
NOTRE DAME Penalty, Substitution Infraction (3 Yards) to the NDame 2Similar
Q4 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.2%
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:1571% → 68%
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
29.2%
Coan, Jack pass incomplete, PENALTY FLORIDAST offside 5 yards to the NOTREDAME30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+1
27.5%
Kyren Williams run for 1 yd to the NDame 31Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
27.5%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-7
28.1%
Jack Coan sacked by Keir Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the NDame 24Similar
Q4 4:15
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
32.2%
Jay Bramblett punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Travis Jay at the FlaSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 27FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:2740% → 62%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
39.5%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+4
39.8%
Jashaun Corbin run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q4 3:33
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+12
40.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Darion Williamson for 12 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
43.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the NDame 46Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+5
41.6%
Treshaun Ward run for 5 yds to the NDame 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
41.5%
Treshaun Ward run for 12 yds to the NDame 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
46.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
43.8%
Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the NDame 25Similar
Q4 0:45
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
40.2%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+43
62.3%
Ryan Fitzgerald 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 28INT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:3347% → 52%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
53.0%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 4 yds to the NDame 29Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+22
52.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for 22 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
45.6%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Kevin Austin Jr.Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
45.1%
Jack Coan pass incomplete to Michael MayerSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-5
48.0%
Jack Coan pass intercepted Travis Jay return for 5 yds to the FlaSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 29MISSED FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0066% → 60%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
65.6%
Jashaun Corbin run for 5 yds to the NDame 20Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+1
65.6%
Jashaun Corbin run for 1 yd to the NDame 19Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
63.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
59.7%
Ryan Fitzgerald 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NDDrive 30FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0059% → 71%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
41.1%
Kyren Williams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-1
41.1%
Jack Coan pass complete to Michael Mayer for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 23Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
0
44.3%
Kyren Williams run for no gain to the FlaSt 23Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+41
29.2%
Jonathan Doerer 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:36
Treshaun Ward run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)
+32.6
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-29.2
FG · OT 0:00
Jonathan Doerer 41 yd FG GOOD
-22.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com