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MASS

Massachusetts 7 at Pittsburgh 51

PITT
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadMASS aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreMASS score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:01 · George Georgeopoulos punt for 32 yds , returns for no gain to the UMass 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 8:32: Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 38 — PITT win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 5:37: Sam Scarton 35 yd FG GOOD — PITT win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:46: Kenny Pickett pass incomplete — PITT win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:36: A.J. Davis run for 18 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:45: Vincent Davis run for 6 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MASS made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:56MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:40PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:09MASS 4th & 9 at MASS 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:03MASS 4th & 10 at MASS 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:25MASS 4th & 13 at MASS 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:11MASS 4th & 21 at MASS 30, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:24PITT 4th & 1 at MASS 8, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−0.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:32MASS 4th & 1 at MASS 29, down 13
    Close callPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:37PITT 4th & 17 at MASS 17, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:15MASS 4th & 2 at MASS 36, down 16
    Close callPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:19PITT 4th & 6 at MASS 34, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    98.4%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:01MASS 4th & 5 at MASS 30, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:56PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:31PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:36PITT Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:45PITT Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:42PITT Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MASSDrive 1PUNT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:130% → 0%
Q1 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Tyler Lytle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Tyler Lytle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
George Georgeopoulos punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 12 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.6%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 1 yd to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
99.6%
#8 K.Pickett pass up the middle complete for 22 yards to #3 J.Addison caught at the MAS49 and advanced to the MAS39 (#12 J.Wallace), score nullified by penalty. PENALTY PIT Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on #7 L.Krull enforced 5 yards from the PIT39 to the PIT34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+7
99.6%
Kenny Pickett run for 7 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
99.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 42 yds, downed at the UMass 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:311% → 1%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.5%
Kay'Ron Adams run for no gain to the UMass 18Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
99.5%
Tyler Lytle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+1
99.5%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 1 yd to the UMass 19Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 9
OWN 19
+38
99.5%
George Georgeopoulos punt for 38 yds , Melquise Stovall returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.5%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 5PUNT
3 plays · 0 yds · 1:001% → 1%
Q1 9:03
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
99.4%
#5 T.Lytle pass to the right incomplete intended for #82 M.Hill thrown to the MAS47, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY Before the snap, MAS Illegal Motion PIT Pass Interference on #14 M.Williams , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
99.4%
Tyler Lytle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
99.4%
George Georgeopoulos punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Melquise Stovall at the Pitt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6TD
1 play · 60 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 4:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 5 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:311% → 1%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.3%
Tyler Lytle pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 4 yds to the UMass 25Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Tyler Lytle pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
99.3%
Tyler Lytle sacked by Phil Campbell III for 0 yards to the UMass 18Similar
Q1 3:25
4TH & 13
OWN 18
-4
99.2%
George Georgeopoulos punt for 52 yds , Melquise Stovall returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:5499% → 99%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+47
99.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jaylon Barden for 47 yds to the UMass 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the UMass 27Similar
Q1 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
99.2%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 9 yds to the UMass 18Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+6
99.2%
Kenny Pickett run for 6 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.2%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
99.3%
Jordan Addison 12 Yd pass from Kenny Pickett (Ben Sauls PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:201% → 1%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.2%
Tyler Lytle pass complete to Jermaine Johnson Jr. for 16 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.2%
Tyler Lytle sacked by Calijah Kancey for 0 yards to the UMass 33Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+1
99.2%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 1 yd to the UMass 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 34
0
99.2%
Tyler Lytle sacked by John Petrishen for 0 yards to the UMass 30Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 21
OWN 30
0
99.1%
George Georgeopoulos punt for 40 yds, downed at the Pitt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 47 yds · 2:4799% → 99%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-15
99.2%
Kenny Pickett pass intercepted for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Offsides Roughing the Passer on G.Johnson enforced (Uchenna Ezewike) to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
99.3%
pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 17 yds to the UMass 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
99.3%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 21 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
99.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jared Wayne for 4 yds to the UMass 13Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+5
99.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Jordan Addison for 5 yds to the UMass 8Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
99.2%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the UMass 8Similar
Q2 11:24
4TH & 1
OPP 8
0
99.1%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for no gain to the UMass 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:521% → 1%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
99.0%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 1 yd to the UMass 9Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+6
99.0%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 6 yds to the UMass 15Similar
Q2 11:24
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+5
99.0%
Tyler Lytle run for 5 yds to the UMass 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Tyler Lytle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
99.0%
Tyler Lytle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
98.8%
Tyler Lytle pass complete to Jermaine Johnson Jr. for 9 yds to the UMass 29Similar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-3
98.8%
George Georgeopoulos punt for 32 yds , Melquise Stovall returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:5599% → 99%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+15
99.0%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 15 yds to the UMass 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
99.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 7 yds to the UMass 40Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+6
99.0%
Shocky Jacques-Louis run for 6 yds to the UMass 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+24
99.0%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Lucas Krull for 24 yds to the UMass 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.0%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.8%
Kenny Pickett sacked by Xavier Gonsalves for 0 yards to the UMass 17Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
0
98.8%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 17
+35
98.9%
Sam Scarton 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:221% → 1%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
98.8%
Tyler Lytle pass complete to Jermaine Johnson Jr. for 17 yds to the UMass 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
98.7%
Tyler Lytle pass complete to Jaret Pallotta for 8 yds to the UMass 36Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
98.7%
Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the UMass 36Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
98.7%
Tyler Lytle pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:15
4TH & 2
OWN 36
0
98.6%
George Georgeopoulos punt for 56 yds, downed at the Pitt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14TD
2 plays · 92 yds · 0:1099% → 99%
Q2 0:46
2ND & 3
OPP 18
0
98.9%
Kenny Pickett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
99.4%
A.J. Davis run for 18 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.3%
Kay'Ron Adams run for 1 yd to the UMass 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 14:05
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.3%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Eric Collins at the UMass 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 2:3499% → 100%
Q3 13:19
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+9
99.3%
Kenny Pickett pass complete to Taysir Mack for 9 yds to the UMass 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
99.4%
MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Tanner Davis) to the UMass 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
99.4%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the UMass 6Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 18PUNT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:260% → 0%
Q3 10:39
3RD & 10
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Tyler Lytle pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:13
4TH & 10
OWN 16
+10
99.9%
#88 G.Georgeopoulos punt 42 yards to the PIT42, #10 J.Barden return 24 yards to the MAS34, out of bounds, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY PIT Holding on #15 R.Battle enforced 10 yards from the PIT49 to the PIT39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19TD
1 play · 61 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:42
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+12
99.9%
Israel Abanikanda run for 12 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MASSDrive 20PUNT
1 play · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
George Georgeopoulos punt for 32 yds , returns for no gain to the UMass 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:36
A.J. Davis run for 18 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q3 10:45
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds for a TD (Sam Scarton KICK)
+0.5
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:46
Kenny Pickett pass incomplete
+0.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com