Try the model
LT

Louisiana Tech 31 at Rice 35

RICE
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Rice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:35 · Charlie Mendes punt for 47 yds for a 1ST down , Smoke Harris returns for 16 yds to the Rice 19 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Home team on offense+3.7Pregame prior−4.5Garbage-time factor+2.7Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:10: JD Head pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +15.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:09: Cameron Montgomery 7 Yd Run (Christian VanSickle Kick) — RICE win probability +20.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:18: JD Head run for 22 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +19.5 pts (now 65%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:12: August Pitre III 31 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Christian VanSickle Kick) — RICE win probability +28.8 pts (now 46%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  5. TD · Q4 1:01: Cedric Patterson III 3 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Christian VanSickle Kick) — RICE win probability +59.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 4 of 8LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 9
  1. Q1 14:56LT 4th & 1 at RICE 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:45LT 4th & 3 at RICE 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.2%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:30RICE 4th & 5 at LT 40, down 3
    Close callPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:30LT 4th & 1 at RICE 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    55.9%−1.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:39LT 4th & 21 at LT 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−2.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:13LT 4th & 12 at RICE 26, down 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.4%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    47.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−4.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00RICE 4th & 9 at LT 35, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 54.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    54.2%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:26RICE 4th & 5 at RICE 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:08LT 4th & 10 at RICE 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:35RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 3, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%−3.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:15RICE 4th & 9 at RICE 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−2.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:07RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 39, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:13LT 4th & 7 at RICE 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:54RICE 4th & 11 at RICE 29, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:38LT 4th & 8 at RICE 35, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−0.5
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:32RICE 4th & 6 at LT 23, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 10.0 ptsWent for it · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.2%−10.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−21.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:19LT 4th & 1 at LT 27, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.2 ptsPunted · 83.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%−5.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 2:00LT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:07RICE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:47RICE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:10LT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:09RICE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:18LT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:10LT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:12RICE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:01RICE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
RICEDrive 1END OF GAME
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:1257% → 58%
Q4 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
57.2%
PENALTY LAT UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct 15 yards from RIC14 to RIC29, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
58.4%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2FG
18 plays · 76 yds · 7:1161% → 59%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
39.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
39.2%
JD Head sacked by Ikenna Enechukwu for 0 yards to the LaTch 24Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+18
39.2%
JD Head pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 18 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
39.2%
JD Head run for 9 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
39.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the Rice 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
39.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+11
39.2%
JD Head pass complete to Tre Harris for 11 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+2
39.2%
JD Head pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 2 yds to the Rice 36Similar
Q1 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+2
39.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Rice 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
39.2%
JD Head run for 10 yds to the Rice 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
39.2%
Kevin Dominique run for 3 yds to the Rice 21Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+11
39.2%
Kevin Dominique run for 11 yds to the Rice 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
39.2%
JD Head pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q1 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
39.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the Rice 3Similar
Q1 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
39.2%
JD Head pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q1 7:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
40.6%
Jacob Barnes 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:1041% → 42%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
40.8%
Ari Broussard run for 7 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+6
41.3%
Ari Broussard run for 6 yds to the Rice 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
41.1%
Luke McCaffrey pass complete to August Pitre III for 16 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
41.7%
Cameron Montgomery run for 4 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+1
41.7%
Jordan Myers run for 1 yd to the LaTch 40Similar
Q1 7:40
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
41.6%
Luke McCaffrey pass incomplete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
41.7%
Charlie Mendes punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 2:3058% → 64%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+35
41.7%
JD Head pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 35 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
40.9%
JD Head pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for no gain to the LaTch 45Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
41.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+6
41.1%
JD Head pass complete to Smoke Harris for 6 yds to the Rice 46Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
41.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
36.2%
JD Head pass complete to Tre Harris for 44 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 0:4836% → 42%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
36.4%
Khalan Griffin run for 1 yd to the Rice 30Similar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+70
41.8%
Cameron Montgomery 70 Yd Run (Christian VanSickle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:1258% → 58%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
41.9%
JD Head pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q1 1:01
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+12
42.0%
Kevin Dominique run for 12 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
41.8%
JD Head pass complete to Smoke Harris for 10 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
41.0%
Kevin Dominique run for no gain to the LaTch 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
41.3%
JD Head pass incomplete to Smoke HarrisSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
41.9%
JD Head pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 4:0243% → 50%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
42.5%
Khalan Griffin run for 2 yds to the Rice 39Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+16
43.2%
Luke McCaffrey run for 16 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
43.8%
Luke McCaffrey pass complete to Jaeger Bull for 7 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+6
43.9%
Khalan Griffin run for 6 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
44.4%
Ari Broussard run for 1 yd to the LaTch 33Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+7
44.3%
Khalan Griffin run for 7 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+4
43.7%
Khalan Griffin run for 4 yds to the LaTch 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
50.3%
Cedric Patterson III 22 Yd pass from Luke McCaffrey (Christian VanSickle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 3:0352% → 48%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
48.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+12
48.4%
JD Head pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 12 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
48.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
47.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 14
OWN 27
0
48.4%
JD Head pass incomplete to Marcus Williams Jr.Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 14
OWN 27
-7
49.1%
JD Head sacked by Trey Schuman for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 20Similar
Q2 7:39
4TH & 21
OWN 20
0
51.6%
Cesar Barajas punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the Rice 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · -12 yds · 1:2751% → 51%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
51.1%
Ari Broussard run for 1 yd to the Rice 37Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
50.8%
Jordan Myers run for 1 yd to the Rice 36Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+12
50.5%
Luke McCaffrey run for 12 yds to the Rice 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5953% → 49%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
46.7%
JD Head pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
47.0%
JD Head run for 2 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
48.5%
JD Head pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q2 5:13
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+5
51.0%
Cesar Barajas run for 5 yds to the Rice 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11DOWNS
13 plays · 35 yds · 5:1352% → 54%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
51.6%
Ari Broussard run for 9 yds to the Rice 30Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+10
52.8%
Luke McCaffrey pass complete to August Pitre III for 10 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
53.2%
Cameron Montgomery run for 1 yd to the Rice 41Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+2
52.7%
Cameron Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Rice 43Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+10
51.9%
Luke McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
54.1%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
54.1%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+7
53.6%
Luke McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
54.2%
PENALTY RIC Delay Of Game (McCaffrey,Luke) 5 yards from LAT36 to LAT41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+9
53.1%
Cedric Patterson III run for 9 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
54.7%
Cameron Montgomery run for no gain to the LaTch 32Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+3
53.8%
Cameron Montgomery run for 3 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 35
-9
53.8%
Luke McCaffrey sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the LaTch 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3055% → 54%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
54.8%
Luke McCaffrey pass incomplete to August Pitre IIISimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
54.4%
Luke McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-1
54.2%
Luke McCaffrey sacked by Keivie Rose for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 34Similar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
53.9%
Charlie Mendes punt for 41 yds , Smoke Harris returns for no gain to the LaTch 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:1845% → 45%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
54.7%
JD Head pass complete to Isaiah Graham for 38 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
50.9%
JD Head pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
51.0%
PENALTY LAT False Start (Delfin,Abraham) 5 yards from RIC37 to RIC42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+5
53.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the Rice 37Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
52.2%
JD Head pass incomplete to Kyle MaxwellSimilar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
55.2%
Cesar Barajas punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:3355% → 57%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
55.0%
Brendan Suckley run for no gain to the Rice 1Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+2
54.8%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the Rice 3Similar
Q3 12:08
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+2
53.5%
Ari Broussard run for 2 yds to the Rice 5Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 6
OWN 5
-2
52.9%
PENALTY RIC False Start (Campbell,Kobie) 2 yards from RIC05 to RIC03. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:35
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+16
57.4%
Charlie Mendes punt for 47 yds for a 1ST down , Smoke Harris returns for 16 yds to the Rice 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:2547% → 63%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
52.7%
JD Head pass complete to Tre Harris for 7 yds to the Rice 12Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+3
52.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the Rice 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
52.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the Rice 6Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
52.7%
Smoke Harris run for 1 yd to the Rice 5Similar
Q3 7:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
37.3%
JD Head pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:5443% → 68%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
43.1%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Jordan Myers for 12 yds to the Rice 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
46.1%
Ari Broussard run for 4 yds to the Rice 45Similar
Q3 7:03
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
46.5%
Ari Broussard run for 1 yd to the Rice 46Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+14
45.1%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 14 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+33
47.4%
TJ McMahon pass complete to August Pitre III for 33 yds to the LaTch 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
68.3%
Cameron Montgomery 7 Yd Run (Christian VanSickle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:4240% → 65%
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
60.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
57.5%
JD Head pass complete to Smoke Harris for 3 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+6
57.5%
JD Head pass complete to Smoke Harris for 6 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+32
56.8%
JD Head pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 32 yds to the Rice 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-3
54.4%
JD Head sacked by Josh Pearcy for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 22Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 13
OPP 22
+22
34.9%
JD Head run for 22 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 1:0343% → 40%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
42.8%
PENALTY RIC Delay Of Game (McMahon,TJ) 5 yards from RIC25 to RIC20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-10
42.4%
RICE Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Cedric Patterson III) to the Rice 10Similar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 25
OWN 10
+21
42.4%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Cedric Patterson III for 21 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
45.3%
TJ McMahon pass incomplete to Jack BradleySimilar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
42.2%
TJ McMahon pass incomplete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q3 1:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
41.0%
PENALTY RIC False Start (Campbell,Kobie) 5 yards from RIC31 to RIC26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:15
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+6
39.9%
Charlie Mendes punt for 47 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 6 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 1:5061% → 81%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
38.7%
Kevin Dominique run for 7 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+1
36.9%
Kevin Dominique run for 1 yd to the LaTch 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+15
37.3%
RICE Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+33
36.0%
Tahj Magee pass complete to Smoke Harris for 33 yds to the Rice 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
34.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the Rice 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 6
0
34.2%
JD Head pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+6
19.5%
JD Head pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 6 yds for a TD, (Cesar Barajas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:5721% → 18%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
21.1%
Ari Broussard run for 1 yd to the Rice 30Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+2
20.4%
Cameron Montgomery run for 2 yds to the Rice 32Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+7
19.6%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Kobie Campbell for 7 yds to the Rice 39Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+4
18.3%
Charlie Mendes punt for 41 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 4 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:5482% → 85%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
17.7%
RICE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Gabe Taylor) to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
17.4%
PENALTY RIC UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Taylor,Gabe) 15 yards from LAT35 to LAT50, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
50
-9
15.8%
JD Head sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the LaTch 41Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 19
OWN 41
0
17.1%
JD Head pass incomplete to Isaiah GrahamSimilar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 19
OWN 41
+12
17.5%
Harlan Dixon run for 12 yds to the Rice 47Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
14.7%
Cesar Barajas punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the Rice 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 22INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:1915% → 12%
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
15.3%
Cameron Montgomery run for 12 yds to the Rice 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
15.8%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Cedric Patterson III for 9 yds to the Rice 39Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 1
OWN 39
0
17.3%
TJ McMahon pass incomplete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 1
OWN 39
-10
16.5%
PENALTY RIC Holding (Baker,Shea) 10 yards from RIC39 to RIC29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 11
OWN 29
0
14.1%
TJ McMahon pass incomplete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q4 7:54
4TH & 11
OWN 29
0
12.3%
TJ McMahon pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:1688% → 87%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
12.5%
Harlan Dixon run for 17 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
12.3%
JD Head pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+2
12.3%
Harlan Dixon run for 2 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
13.0%
JD Head pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q4 6:38
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
13.2%
Cesar Barajas punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 24TD
5 plays · 92 yds · 2:2613% → 46%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
12.6%
Cameron Montgomery run for no gain to the Rice 8Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+38
12.3%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Cedric Patterson III for 38 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
15.3%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Robert French for 9 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+14
16.8%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Robert French for 14 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
45.6%
August Pitre III 31 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Christian VanSickle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25INT
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:4874% → 75%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
25.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the LaTch 19Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 16
OWN 19
0
24.6%
JD Head pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5246% → 36%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
45.7%
Jordan Myers run for 4 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
45.7%
TJ McMahon pass incomplete to Cedric Patterson IIISimilar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
42.8%
TJ McMahon pass incomplete to Jack BradleySimilar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+5
36.1%
TJ McMahon run for 5 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1379% → 86%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
21.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaTch 19Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+5
21.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+3
14.0%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q4 1:19
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+48
14.5%
Cesar Barajas punt for 39 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 48 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 28TD
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:1840% → 95%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
40.0%
McMahon,TJ pass incomplete, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY LAT Pass Interference (Woods,Cedric) 15 yards from LAT18 to LAT03, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
40.0%
TJ McMahon pass incomplete to Jack BradleySimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
40.0%
TJ McMahon pass complete to Jordan Myers for no gain to the LaTch 3Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.9%
Cedric Patterson III 3 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Christian VanSickle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 29Uncategorized
8 plays · 42 yds · 0:4419% → 29%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
81.4%
JD Head pass complete to Tre Harris for 13 yds to the LaTch 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
78.2%
JD Head pass complete to Tre Harris for 2 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
77.4%
Head,JD pass incomplete to Harris,Tre PENALTY RIC Pass Interference (Dunbar,Jordan) 7 yards from LAT40 to LAT47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+20
76.4%
JD Head pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 20 yds to the Rice 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
70.1%
JD Head pass incomplete to Tre HarrisSimilar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-7
71.4%
Head,JD pass intercepted by Taylor,Gabe at RIC07 Taylor,Gabe return 7 yards to the RIC14, End Of Play PENALTY LAT Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-7
71.4%
Head,JD pass intercepted by Taylor,Gabe at RIC07 Taylor,Gabe return 7 yards to the RIC14, End Of Play PENALTY LAT Personal Foul offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:01
Cedric Patterson III 3 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Christian VanSickle Kick)
+59
TD · Q4 4:12
August Pitre III 31 Yd pass from TJ McMahon (Christian VanSickle Kick)
+28.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+28.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com