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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 27 at Florida Atlantic 17

FAU
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:14 · punt for 49 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for no gain to the FlAtl 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 38Home team on offense+1.3Pregame prior+13.0Garbage-time factor+0.3Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:57: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to John Mitchell for 32 yds for a TD — FAU win probability +10.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:59: Zeke Rankin 23 yd FG GOOD — MTSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:04: Mike DiLiello run for 1 yd for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +21.0 pts (now 27%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 13:38: Zeke Rankin 26 yd FG GOOD — MTSU win probability +15.9 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:21: Mike DiLiello pass complete to Zaylin Wood for 6 yds for a TD FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Caliph Brice) to the FlAtl 0 — MTSU win probability +46.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12MTSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 0:00MTSU 4th & 19 at MTSU 16, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−1.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:33FAU 4th & 4 at MTSU 36, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:07MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 43, down 6
    Close callPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:27FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 29, up 6
    Close callPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:14MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:36FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 39, up 6
    Close callPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q1 0:00MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 17, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:59FAU 4th & 11 at FAU 40, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:05MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 33, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:59MTSU 4th & 7 at FAU 7, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00MTSU 4th & 3 at FAU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    26.8%−1.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    26.5%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:14FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 43, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:03MTSU 4th & 21 at MTSU 45, down 10
    Numbers favored punt by 2.9 ptsWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%−2.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:36MTSU 4th & 16 at MTSU 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%−2.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:19FAU 4th & 7 at MTSU 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−7.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:46FAU 4th & 19 at FAU 42, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−4.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:54MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−1.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:23FAU 4th & 8 at FAU 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−2.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 13:38MTSU 4th & 10 at FAU 10, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−2.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    4.2%−13.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:13FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:21MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%−0.3
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:56FAU 4th & 9 at FAU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−3.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.5%
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:00FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%−2.4
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:00FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.4%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 9:57FAU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 7:04MTSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 11:5067% → 69%
Q1 11:50
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+48
66.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 48 yds for a TDSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
68.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Johnny Ford, broken up by Jalen JacksonSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
68.6%
Johnny Ford run for 16 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
69.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 2 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+5
69.6%
Zuberi Mobley run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+4
69.3%
Zuberi Mobley run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
69.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 12
50
+2
69.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 2 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
67.8%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete, broken up by Jaylen Joyner MIDDLE TENN Penalty, intentional grounding (Nick Vattiato) to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 30
OWN 5
+2
68.2%
Martell Pettaway run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
68.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 40 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 28
OWN 7
+9
68.7%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 9 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 8:3367% → 70%
Q1 8:33
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
67.4%
pass incomplete to TJ ChaseSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
69.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Willie Wright for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
50
+8
69.8%
Johnny Ford run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
69.9%
N'Kosi Perry run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
69.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete, broken up by Richard KinleySimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
69.5%
pass incomplete to Brandon RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 7:0733% → 33%
Q1 7:07
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
67.3%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 47 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
67.3%
Yusuf Ali run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
66.5%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Jarrin Pierce, broken up by Korel SmithSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-1
66.7%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 5:2767% → 68%
Q1 5:27
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
67.3%
Matt Hayball punt for 36 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
68.6%
Johnny Ford run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
68.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
68.6%
pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+8
68.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 8 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 3:1432% → 32%
Q1 3:14
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
68.3%
punt for 49 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for no gain to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
67.5%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to CJ Windham MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding (Will Gilchrist) to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
67.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding (Will Gilchrist) to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 25
-1
67.9%
Martell Pettaway run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+11
68.5%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 11 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:3668% → 68%
Q1 0:36
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
68.4%
Matt Hayball punt for 48 ydsSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
68.6%
Johnny Ford run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+12
68.6%
Zuberi Mobley run for 12 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
68.8%
Zuberi Mobley run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
68.7%
Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+8
68.2%
N'Kosi Perry run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
67.9%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 9 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 1
OWN 22
0
67.5%
pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
68.1%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 22
-5
68.6%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Andrew Leak) to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
68.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9TD
1 play · 32 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
79.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to John Mitchell for 32 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 15:0076% → 83%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+7
75.9%
James Charles run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
76.2%
James Charles run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+1
75.9%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
75.6%
pass incomplete to Brandon RobinsonSimilar
Q2 12:59
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
76.3%
Matt Hayball punt for 49 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
83.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 10:0524% → 19%
Q2 10:05
4TH & 10
OWN 33
+48
76.5%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 47 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 48 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
80.9%
Jaylin Lane run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+2
80.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+13
80.9%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 13 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
80.5%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 4 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
0
80.3%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete, broken up by Evan AndersonSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 37
-4
80.6%
Nick Vattiato sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 4:5926% → 27%
Q2 4:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+23
73.6%
Zeke Rankin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
75.6%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 16 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
74.2%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 12 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
73.4%
Amir Rasul run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+6
73.3%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 34
0
73.0%
pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+6
74.7%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 6 yds to the FlAtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
71.9%
Nick Vattiato run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+7
71.9%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 7 yds to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
71.9%
Nick Vattiato run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-5
71.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Jordan Palmer) to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+11
72.3%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 11 yds to the FlAtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
71.9%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
71.9%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Jimmy Marshall, broken up by Jordan HelmSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
72.9%
pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 1:1476% → 77%
Q2 1:14
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
75.7%
Matt Hayball punt for 43 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
76.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 7 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+9
77.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 9 yds to the FlAtl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
77.2%
Johnny Ford run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
77.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
76.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to TJ Chase for 13 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
78.2%
James Charles run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+4
77.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
77.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete, broken up by Jurriente DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14FUMBLE
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0323% → 24%
Q2 0:03
4TH & 21
OWN 45
0
77.0%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to CJ Windham Brad Anderson fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
76.1%
Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
76.3%
pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+31
77.1%
Mike DiLiello run for 31 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
74.5%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Brad Anderson for 11 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-17
73.4%
Mike DiLiello sacked for a loss of 17 yards to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 27
OWN 39
0
75.8%
pass incomplete to Jaylin LaneSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 27
OWN 39
+6
76.3%
Mike DiLiello run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 13:3621% → 14%
Q3 13:36
4TH & 16
OWN 34
0
79.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 46 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
85.1%
Mike DiLiello run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
83.3%
DJ England-Chisolm run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-11
83.2%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 4 yds to the MTnSt 44 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jarrin Pierce) to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 21
OWN 29
0
85.1%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 21
OWN 29
0
85.5%
pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 21
OWN 29
+5
86.2%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, off-side (Chase Lasater) to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 16
OWN 34
0
86.2%
pass incomplete to Izaiah GathingsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16FG
9 plays · 72 yds · 9:1986% → 94%
Q3 9:19
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+23
86.2%
Morgan Suarez 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
93.1%
N'Kosi Perry run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+38
93.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Johnny Ford for 38 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-14
93.7%
Je'Quan Burton sacked for a loss of 14 yards to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 24
OPP 45
+4
93.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Johnny Ford for 4 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 20
OPP 41
+30
93.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 30 yds to the MTnSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
93.7%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
93.7%
pass incomplete to N'Kosi PerrySimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+1
93.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 1 yd to the MTnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 7:0427% → 21%
Q3 7:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.6%
Mike DiLiello run for 1 yd for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+55
83.6%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 55 yds to the FlAtl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
78.6%
Mike DiLiello run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+11
78.6%
Mike DiLiello run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
78.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:4682% → 85%
Q3 3:46
4TH & 19
OWN 42
0
81.8%
Matt Hayball punt for 58 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
85.3%
Zuberi Mobley run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+3
85.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to James Charles for 3 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+21
84.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 21 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
86.9%
Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-12
87.0%
N'Kosi Perry sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 19
OWN 42
0
85.0%
pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:5416% → 16%
Q3 1:54
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
84.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 46 ydsSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
83.6%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 2 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
83.7%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 2 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
84.5%
Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:2383% → 84%
Q3 0:23
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+7
83.4%
Matt Hayball punt for 59 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 7 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
85.3%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
85.3%
pass incomplete to Zaire Mitchell-PadenSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-5
84.5%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Marquice Robinson) to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+6
84.0%
N'Kosi Perry run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21FG
3 plays · 74 yds · 1:2216% → 32%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
83.6%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 10 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+65
83.5%
Martell Pettaway run for 65 yds to the FlAtl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+26
67.6%
Zeke Rankin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 11:1371% → 77%
Q4 11:13
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
71.4%
Matt Hayball punt for 38 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
75.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Zuberi Mobley for 8 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+10
80.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 10 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
77.6%
Zuberi Mobley run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
81.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Johnny FordSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
76.6%
pass incomplete to TJ ChaseSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 10:3929% → 21%
Q4 10:39
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+6
71.5%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Martell Pettaway for 6 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:21
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
71.2%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 43 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
79.2%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 5 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
78.5%
Martell Pettaway run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 33
-3
75.2%
Mike DiLiello sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+3
78.9%
Mike DiLiello run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 6:5676% → 74%
Q4 6:56
4TH & 9
OWN 25
+28
75.7%
Matt Hayball punt for 43 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 28 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
75.0%
N'Kosi Perry run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
-3
75.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Johnny Ford for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
73.8%
pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 40 yds · 4:2173% → 90%
Q4 4:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
26.9%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Zaylin Wood for 6 yds for a TD FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Caliph Brice) to the FlAtl 0Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
10.6%
Martell Pettaway run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+3
10.6%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 3 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+27
10.7%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 27 yds to the FlAtl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
9.7%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 1:3916% → 8%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-7
15.7%
N'Kosi Perry sacked for a loss of 7 yards (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
6.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 3 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
7.3%
James Charles run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+7
6.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
8.0%
Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
8.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to LaJohntay Wester, broken up by Quincy RileySimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+8
7.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Johnny Ford for 8 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+31
7.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to TJ Chase for 31 yds to the MTnSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 27INT
10 plays · 49 yds · 0:3112% → 12%
Q4 0:31
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
11.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass interceptedSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to John Mitchell, broken up by Decorian PattersonSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
6.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 14 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
8.0%
pass incomplete to John MitchellSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+8
8.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to TJ Chase for 8 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
0
9.0%
pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
+6
7.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 6 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
9.6%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Quincy Riley) to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
12.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brandon Robinson, broken up by Decorian PattersonSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
12.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to John Mitchell for 6 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
4.3%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jordan Ferguson) to the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:21
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Zaylin Wood for 6 yds for a TD FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Caliph Brice) to the FlAtl 0
-46.9
TD · Q3 7:04
Mike DiLiello run for 1 yd for a TD (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-21
FG · Q4 13:38
Zeke Rankin 26 yd FG GOOD
-15.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com