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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUAB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:09 · Kyle Greenwell punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:24: Sincere McCormick run for 8 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +6.8 pts (now 68%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:41: Dylan Hopkins run for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +11.2 pts (now 51%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:09: Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 54 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +18.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:19: DeWayne McBride run for 16 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK) — UAB win probability +51.4 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:03: Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 1 yd for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +59.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UAB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
- Q1 12:17UAB 4th & 23 at UAB 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snapGo for it38.5%−0.37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call38.8%average punt
- Q2 2:18UTSA 4th & 8 at UAB 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.8% before the snapGo for it47.2%−0.134% to convertField goalTheir call47.3%49% to makePunt45.6%−1.6average punt
- Q2 0:00UAB 4th & 2 at UTSA 6, up 4Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snapGo for it52.2%52% to convertField goalTheir call50.4%−1.891% to makePunt41.6%−10.6average punt
- Q3 14:09UAB 4th & 21 at UAB 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snapGo for it37.1%−4.58% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.5%average punt
- Q3 11:57UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snapGo for it56.1%−3.720% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.7%average punt
- Q3 6:33UTSA 4th & 6 at UAB 43, tiedClose callPunted · 60.7% before the snapGo for it61.6%40% to convertField goal59.5%−2.128% to makePuntTheir call60.8%−0.7average punt
- Q3 6:26UAB 4th & 10 at UAB 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snapGo for it38.8%−3.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.1%average punt
- Q3 1:21UTSA 4th & 8 at UAB 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.8% before the snapGo for it59.0%−0.434% to convertField goalTheir call59.4%54% to makePunt57.1%−2.3average punt
- Q4 15:00UAB 4th & 7 at midfield, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it34.1%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.1%average punt
- Q4 10:47UTSA 4th & 23 at UTSA 2, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snapGo for it56.6%−12.96% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call69.5%average punt
- Q4 5:19UTSA 4th & 10 at UAB 41, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call31.9%30% to convertField goal30.7%−1.232% to makePunt29.5%−2.4average punt
- Q4 1:43UAB 4th & 6 at UAB 37, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snapGo for it84.6%−1.040% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.6%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UAB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 14:08UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.3%97% to makeGo for two38.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:16UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.6%97% to makeGo for two61.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:08UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call43.7%97% to makeGo for two43.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:24UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.5%97% to makeGo for two59.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:41UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.8%97% to makeGo for two49.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:09UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.6%97% to makeGo for two56.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 5:19UAB Touchdown, up 3 before the tryNumbers favored go for two by 1.4 ptsKicked · madeKickTheir call64.4%−1.497% to makeGo for two65.7%45% to convert
- Q4 0:03UTSA Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.2%97% to makeGo for two79.9%−2.345% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 1TD3 plays · 75 yds · 0:5233% → 34%
UTSADrive 2PUNT8 plays · -10 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 14:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
66.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Leroy Watson for 6 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:08
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-9
66.2%
Frank Harris sacked by Kyle Harrell and Charlie Benton for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 20 Frank Harris fumbled, recovered by TexSA , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-15
65.2%
Hopkins, Dylan crossing pass complete to Palmer, Tejhaun for 18 yards to the UTSA44, out-of-bounds (LIGON, Jamal), PENALTY UAB pass interference (Prince, Gerrit) 15 yards to the UAB23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 23
OWN 25
0
65.6%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 49 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for no gain to the TexSA 27 Sheldon Jones fumbled, recovered by TexSASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4TD13 plays · 73 yds · 4:4364% → 67%
UABDrive 5TD11 plays · 77 yds · 4:0835% → 42%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+6
65.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 6 yds to the UAB 24Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+11
65.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 11 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
65.0%
Brown Jr., Jerm rush left for loss of 3 yards to the UAB33 (SAM, Jahmal), PENALTY UAB holding (Hopkins, Dylan) 10 yards to the UAB26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+24
65.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to RaJae' Johnson-Sanders for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
50
+8
64.3%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to RaJae' Johnson-Sanders for 8 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
57.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 40 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4459% → 68%
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
59.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 7 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
59.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 29 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-7
60.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 3 yds to the UAB 30 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive holding (Leroy Watson) to the UAB 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+16
59.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 16 yds to the UAB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-4
61.8%
Frank Harris sacked by Kyle Harrell and Noah Wilder for a loss of 4 yards to the UAB 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 28
+5
61.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 5 yds to the UAB 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+15
60.9%
HARRIS, Frank deep pass incomplete to FRANKLIN, Z. (Cash, Grayson), PENALTY UAB pass interference (McWilliams, Mac) 15 yards to the UAB8, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
67.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 8 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:4336% → 51%
Q2 10:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+32
62.7%
DeWayne McBride run for 32 yds to the TexSA 33 DeWayne McBride fumbled, forced by Denzel Feaster, recovered by UAB RaJae' Johnson-Sanders for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8FG8 plays · 42 yds · 3:2353% → 58%
Q2 5:41
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+7
52.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+38
52.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 38 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-11
57.1%
Frank Harris sacked by Justin Thomas for a loss of 11 yards to the UAB 46Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 21
OPP 46
+13
53.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 13 yds to the UAB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9FG15 plays · 69 yds · 2:1845% → 54%
UTSADrive 10TD6 plays · 75 yds · 0:5148% → 62%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.8%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua Cephus, broken up by Alex WrightSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 6 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
47.4%
HARRIS, Frank sideline pass incomplete to FRANKLIN, Z. (Thomas V, Starl), PENALTY UAB pass interference (Thomas V, Starl) 15 yards to the UTSA46, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
65.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 54 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 0
OWN 0
0
62.3%
PENALTY UAB face mask off-setting, PENALTY UTSA personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11PUNT5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0041% → 38%
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.3%
DeWayne McBride run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 25 DeWayne McBride fumbled, forced by Brandon Brown, recovered by UAB Dylan HopkinsSimilar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
59.5%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to RaJae' Johnson-Sanders for no gain to the UAB 25Similar
Q3 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-11
60.6%
Dylan Hopkins sacked by Lorenzo Dantzler for a loss of 11 yards to the UAB 14Similar
Q3 14:09
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
61.9%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q3 11:57
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-3
63.3%
Frank Harris sacked by Alex Wright and Tyree Turner for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 38Similar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 8
OWN 38
-5
60.8%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Xavier Spencer) to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+3
59.9%
Lucas Dean punt for 53 yds , Starling Thomas V returns for 3 yds to the UAB 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13INT7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-9
58.9%
Hopkins, Dylan middle pass complete to Pittman, Hayden for 20 yards to the UAB37 (SAM, Jahmal), PENALTY UAB holding (Telfort, Kadeem) 9 yards to the UAB8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
55.6%
Hopkins, Dylan sideline pass incomplete to Johnson-Sanders, QB hurry by CLAYTON, C., PENALTY UAB holding (Jones, Jakoby) 10 yards to the UAB39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 25
OWN 34
0
58.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass intercepted Jamal Ligon return for no gain to the UAB 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 1:2366% → 62%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
65.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the UAB 41Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 1
OPP 38
-5
63.3%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Terrell Haynes) to the UAB 43Similar
Q3 6:33
4TH & 6
OPP 43
0
62.4%
Lucas Dean punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Starling Thomas V at the UAB 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0042% → 39%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
58.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 6 yds to the UAB 16Similar
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
57.9%
Dylan Hopkins pass incomplete to Trea Shropshire, broken up by Rashad WisdomSimilar
Q3 6:26
4TH & 10
OWN 22
+22
61.1%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 37 yds, downed at the UTSA 41 UAB Penalty, kick catching interference (Keondre Swoopes) to the UAB 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16FG6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5765% → 68%
UABDrive 17PUNT12 plays · 25 yds · 1:2132% → 32%
Q3 1:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
68.4%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Samario Rudolph for 5 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q3 1:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
68.2%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 6 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-1
64.4%
Dylan Hopkins sacked by Clarence Hicks for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+5
68.1%
Greenwell, Kyle punt 30 yards to the UTSA28, fair catch by JONES, Sheldon, PENALTY UTSA failure to wear required equipment 5 yards to the UAB47, 1ST DOWN UAB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-6
63.4%
Dylan Hopkins sacked by Clarence Hicks for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+7
68.6%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to DeWayne McBride for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
50
0
67.9%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18PUNT4 plays · -13 yds · 0:0072% → 69%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
72.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 4 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q4 10:47
3RD & 8
OWN 17
-9
70.2%
Frank Harris sacked by Alex Wright for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 2 Frank Harris fumbled, recovered by TexSA Zakhari Franklin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19TD9 plays · 44 yds · 3:3037% → 82%
Q4 8:49
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-10
63.8%
Hopkins, Dylan sideline pass incomplete to Prince, Gerrit, PENALTY UAB holding (Telfort, Kadeem) 10 yards to the UAB46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 20
OWN 46
+16
73.0%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Trea Shropshire for 16 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+16
67.8%
Dylan Hopkins pass complete to Gerrit Prince for 16 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20DOWNS14 plays · 42 yds · 0:0040% → 41%
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
39.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
40.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 10 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
41.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 8 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-5
44.9%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Zakhari Franklin) to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+5
44.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 5 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 10
OPP 41
+8
40.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 8 yds to the UAB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0988% → 89%
Q4 1:43
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
11.4%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22TD7 plays · 77 yds · 1:0320% → 96%
Q4 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+28
19.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 28 yds to the UAB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
25.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 6 yds to the UAB 43Similar
Q4 1:06
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+33
32.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 33 yds to the UAB 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 1 yd for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:03
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 1 yd for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
+59
TD · Q4 5:19
DeWayne McBride run for 16 yds for a TD, (Matt Quinn KICK)
-51.4
TD · Q3 14:09
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 54 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
+18.1