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Florida Atlantic 17 at Western Kentucky 52

WKU
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:14 · Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the WKent 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:34: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for 3 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +6.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:15: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +8.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 1:35: Brayden Narveson 26 yd FG GOOD — WKU win probability +7.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:34: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to John Mitchell for 9 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK) — FAU win probability +9.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:59: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 27 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +6.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00FAU 4th & 3 at WKU 46, tied
    Close callPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:56FAU 4th & 1 at WKU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    22.7%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:13FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 44, down 11
    Close callPunted · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.5%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:25FAU 4th & 5 at WKU 15, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−5.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:35WKU 4th & 8 at FAU 8, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.1%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−4.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:27FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:20WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 13, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00FAU 4th & 4 at FAU 20, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:10FAU 4th & 29 at FAU 43, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:16FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 32, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:16FAU 4th & 10 at WKU 36, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    42% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FAU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:52WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:13WKU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:34WKU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:58FAU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:15WKU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:34FAU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:59WKU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:15WKU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:16WKU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
66.6%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
66.6%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+17
66.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 17 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
66.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 5 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+2
66.6%
Kelvin Dean Jr. run for 2 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
66.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 46
0
66.6%
Matt Hayball punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 87 yds · 2:1666% → 68%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
66.4%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 8Similar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+9
66.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 9 yds to the WKent 17Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+25
66.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 25 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+28
66.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 28 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
66.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 18 yds to the FlAtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
66.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 11 yds to the FlAtl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
67.8%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the WKent 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3FG
16 plays · 33 yds · 5:1133% → 34%
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
50
+15
67.1%
Ford, Johnny rush for loss of 2 yards to the FAU48 (KINCADE, A.;IGNONT, W.), PENALTY WKU face mask 15 yards to the WKU35, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
66.9%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the WKent 34Similar
Q1 10:52
2ND & 9
OPP 34
-9
67.0%
Johnny Ford run for a loss of 9 yards to the WKent 43Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 18
OPP 43
+5
67.5%
Perry, N'Kosi pass incomplete to Charles, James, PENALTY WKU offside (CAIN, D.) 5 yards to the WKU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 13
OPP 38
+12
67.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 12 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+2
67.4%
James Charles run for 2 yds to the WKent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
66.9%
Perry, N'Kosi pass incomplete to Mitchell, John, PENALTY WKU pass interference (HAILASSIE, K.) 6 yards to the WKU18, 1ST DOWN FAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
66.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 6 yds to the WKent 12Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+2
66.9%
James Charles run for 2 yds to the WKent 10Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+7
67.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 7 yds to the WKent 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
66.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brandon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-6
66.9%
LaJohntay Wester run for a loss of 6 yards to the WKent 9Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-8
67.3%
N'Kosi Perry run for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 17 N'Kosi Perry fumbled, recovered by FlAtl N'Kosi PerrySimilar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 0
OPP 17
+35
66.3%
Morgan Suarez 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:2068% → 71%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
50
+16
67.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 16 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
67.8%
WHITTINGTON, N. rush for 6 yards to the FAU28 (Hawthorne, Deca;Helm, Jordan), PENALTY WKU holding (SMITH, D.) 10 yards to the FAU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+21
67.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 21 yds to the FlAtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
67.8%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to DAVIS, D., PENALTY FAU pass interference (Tisdale, Tyrek) 15 yards to the FAU8, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
71.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 8 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.2%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+9
69.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 9 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
68.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 8 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
68.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for no gain to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
68.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brandon RobinsonSimilar
Q1 4:13
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
69.1%
Matt Hayball punt for 35 yds , Jerreth Sterns returns for no gain to the WKent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:5270% → 79%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-5
70.1%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to TINSLEY, M., PENALTY WKU ineligible downfield on pass (SPENCER, C.) 5 yards to the WKU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 15
OWN 16
+19
70.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 19 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
70.2%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
70.1%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+14
69.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 14 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
71.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 25 yds to the FlAtl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
71.1%
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+6
72.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 6 yds to the FlAtl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
72.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Kye Robichaux for 10 yds to the FlAtl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
79.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for 3 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7DOWNS
11 plays · 67 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
78.4%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+5
78.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 5 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
78.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+17
78.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 17 yds to the FlAtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+45
77.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to James Charles for 45 yds to the WKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-15
76.3%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Brandon Robinson) to the WKent 35Similar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 25
OPP 35
+4
77.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 4 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 21
OPP 31
+5
77.3%
N'Kosi Perry run for 5 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+11
77.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 11 yds to the WKent 15Similar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 5
OPP 15
0
77.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Je'Quan Burton, broken up by Davion WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8INT TD
7 plays · 43 yds · 2:5080% → 75%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
80.1%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the WKent 19 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
80.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 11 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
81.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 10 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
81.1%
Adam Cofield run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 15
50
+3
80.8%
Bailey Zappe run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+5
80.3%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to STERNS, JERR, PENALTY FAU offside (Jones, Chris) 5 yards to the FAU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:58
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-62
74.9%
Bailey Zappe pass intercepted for a TD Teja Young return for 62 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:3674% → 83%
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
74.2%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+10
74.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 10 yds to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
74.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 8 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+4
75.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 4 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
75.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 5 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
75.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 4 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q2 7:51
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+3
75.0%
Adam Cofield run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+39
75.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 39 yds to the FlAtl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
83.3%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jordan Helm) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 1:3884% → 93%
Q2 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
84.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+32
84.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for 32 yds to the FlAtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:13
1ST & 0
OPP 4
+2
84.6%
ROBICHAUX, K. rush for no gain to the FAU4 (Lasater, Chase), PENALTY FAU 12 men on the field 2 yards to the FAU2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
85.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns, broken up by Jordan HelmSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
85.3%
Kye Robichaux run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 3Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-5
86.1%
ZAPPE, B. pass complete to TINSLEY, M. for 3 yards to the FAU0, clock 01:44, PENALTY WKU ineligible downfield on pass (WILSON, B.) 5 yards to the FAU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
85.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q2 1:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
92.8%
Brayden Narveson 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 1:059% → 9%
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
91.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to LaJohntay Wester, broken up by Antwon KincadeSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-10
91.2%
Perry, N'Kosi pass complete to Wester, LaJohnt for 5 yards to the FAU28 (KINCADE, A.;ALEXANDER, O.), PENALTY FAU personal foul 10 yards to the FAU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 20
OWN 13
+1
91.0%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 19
OWN 14
+16
91.2%
Johnny Ford run for 16 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+3
91.2%
Matt Hayball punt for 50 yds , Jerreth Sterns returns for 3 yds to the WKent 33 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive holding (-15 Yards) to the WKent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
93.0%
Noah Whittington run for 9 yds to the WKent 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13INT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
92.8%
Noah Whittington run for 11 yds to the WKent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
92.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Noah Whittington, broken up by Ryan VeingradSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+11
92.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 11 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
92.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 31Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+3
92.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+15
92.7%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to STERNS, JERR, PENALTY FAU pass interference (Adams, Armani) 15 yards to the WKU49, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
93.2%
WHITTINGTON, N. rush for no gain to the WKU49 (Smith, Korel), PENALTY WKU holding (BOWMAN, J.) 10 yards to the WKU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 20
OWN 39
0
93.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 20
OWN 39
+4
93.0%
Bailey Zappe pass intercepted Korel Smith return for a loss of 4 yards to the FlAtl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
92.6%
Johnny Ford run for 9 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+3
92.1%
Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the WKent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
92.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Johnny Ford for 8 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
92.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass intercepted Beanie Bishop return for no gain to the WKent 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
94.1%
Adam Cofield run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 6Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+8
94.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 8 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 3
OWN 14
-1
94.0%
Adam Cofield run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 13Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 4
OWN 13
+5
93.7%
John Haggerty III punt for 54 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 5 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:366% → 16%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
94.4%
Johnny Ford run for 13 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
94.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Johnny FordSimilar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
94.4%
N'Kosi Perry run for 5 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+11
94.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 11 yds to the WKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
93.7%
Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+15
93.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 15 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
93.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 5 yds to the WKent 10Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+1
93.6%
LaJohntay Wester run for 1 yd to the WKent 9Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
84.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to John Mitchell for 9 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0089% → 90%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
89.0%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to TINSLEY, M., PENALTY WKU ineligible downfield on pass (WILSON, B.) 5 yards to the WKU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+8
88.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 8 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
89.1%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Daewood DavisSimilar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+14
88.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 14 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
89.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Noah Whittington for no gain Noah Whittington fumbled, forced by Eddie Williams, recovered by FlAtl Jordan HelmSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18INT
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
85.6%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 17
OWN 46
0
87.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass intercepted Omari Alexander return for no gain to the WKent 39Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-11
85.6%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by DeAngelo Malone for a loss of 11 yards to the WESTERNKY 46 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, intentional grounding (N'Kosi Perry) to the FlAtl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 61 yds · 1:5791% → 98%
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
90.5%
Adam Cofield run for 6 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
90.7%
Adam Cofield run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
50
+22
90.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 22 yds to the FlAtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
90.8%
Adam Cofield run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+27
97.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 27 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:513% → 2%
Q3 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
97.2%
Johnny Ford run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q3 1:51
2ND & 12
OWN 12
-11
97.2%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by JaQues Evans for a loss of 11 yards to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 23
OWN 1
+19
97.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 19 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 20
0
98.1%
Matt Hayball punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterns at the WKent 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:4098% → 100%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
98.1%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the WKent 45Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+8
98.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 8 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+5
98.1%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
98.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 3 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+27
98.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 15 yds to the FlAtl 24 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (Armani-Eli Adams) to the FlAtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
98.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 5 yds to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for 7 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
99.8%
Zuberi Mobley run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+8
99.8%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 8 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+20
99.8%
Nick Tronti pass complete to John Mitchell for 20 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Zuberi MobleySimilar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-5
99.8%
Tronti, Nick pass complete to Robinson, Brand for 7 yards to the WKU31, out-of-bounds (WILLIAMS, D.), PENALTY FAU ineligible downfield on pass (Noel, Desmond) 5 yards to the WKU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 15
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Zuberi Mobley, broken up by Michael PittsSimilar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 15
OPP 43
-9
99.8%
Nick Tronti sacked by JaQues Evans for a loss of 9 yards to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 24
OWN 48
-5
99.8%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, delay of game (Jaylen Joyner) to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 29
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Matt Hayball punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterns at the WKent 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 5:32100% → 100%
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
99.8%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+2
99.8%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the WKent 22Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 5
OWN 22
+24
99.8%
Drew Zaubi pass complete to DeAngelo Wilson for 24 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive offside (Jaylen Joyner) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.9%
Jakairi Moses run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+7
99.8%
Jakairi Moses run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
99.9%
Jakairi Moses run for 14 yds to the FlAtl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
99.9%
Drew Zaubi pass complete to Matthew Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+5
99.9%
ZAUBI, D. pass incomplete to BURT JR, C., PENALTY FAU offside (Veingrad, Ryan) 5 yards to the FAU25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+2
99.9%
Adam Cofield run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+16
99.9%
Drew Zaubi pass complete to DeAngelo Wilson for 16 yds to the FlAtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Jakairi Moses run for 7 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24INT
13 plays · 39 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Nick Tronti pass complete to John Mitchell for 7 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to John MitchellSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Zuberi Mobley for 9 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
99.9%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 10 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Brandon RobinsonSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
99.9%
Nick Tronti pass complete to Jahmal Edrine for 9 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
Zuberi Mobley run for 4 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Zaire Mitchell-PadenSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Nick Tronti pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
Q4 4:16
4TH & 10
OPP 36
-10
99.9%
Nick Tronti pass intercepted Christian Gomez return for 10 yds to the WKent 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
99.9%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the WKent 20Similar
Q4 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 6 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q4 2:14
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the WKent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:34
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to John Mitchell for 9 yds for a TD, (Morgan Suarez KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q2 3:15
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+8.3
FG · Q2 1:35
Brayden Narveson 26 yd FG GOOD
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com