2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreUNT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:16 · Tommy Heatherly punt for 28 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 8:03: A. Aune run for 11 yds for a TD, (E. Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +5.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:43: A. Aune pass,to R. Burns for 55 yds for a TD, (E. Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +6.9 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 10:09: D. Torrey run for 50 yds for a TD, (E. Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +4.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:00: DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line — UNT win probability +6.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:45: Khatib Lyles 35 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Ethan Mooney Kick) — UNT win probability +5.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12UNT made the numbers' call on 1 of 5
- Q1 13:46UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snapGo for it72.5%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.6%average punt
- Q1 0:00FIU 4th & 2 at UNT 37, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call32.4%57% to convertField goal31.5%−0.940% to makePunt31.3%−1.0average punt
- Q1 6:21FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 33, down 7Close callPunted · 27.9% before the snapGo for it28.0%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 4:29UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 10, up 7Close callPunted · 71.4% before the snapGo for it71.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.2%−0.6average punt
- Q1 2:58FIU 4th & 9 at FIU 30, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snapGo for it27.9%−0.431% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.3%average punt
- Q1 1:58UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 26, up 7Close callPunted · 71.4% before the snapGo for it71.8%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call71.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 0:00FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 42, down 7Close callWent for it · 28.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.5%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt28.8%average punt
- Q2 13:39FIU 4th & 23 at FIU 49, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snapGo for it27.3%−1.57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.8%average punt
- Q2 10:44FIU 4th & 9 at FIU 26, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snapGo for it21.9%−0.730% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.6%average punt
- Q2 6:27FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 41, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snapGo for it14.7%−0.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.1%average punt
- Q2 3:21FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 27, down 28Close callPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q3 9:16FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 27, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q3 5:32FIU 4th & 11 at FIU 48, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q3 0:44UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 45, up 42Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 14:08FIU 4th & 16 at FIU 14, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 10:37UNT 4th & 5 at FIU 45, up 42Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%41% to convertField goal99.5%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call99.6%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 6:01FIU 4th & 16 at FIU 40, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q2 12:43UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.2%97% to makeGo for two75.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 10:09UNT Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call84.7%97% to makeGo for two84.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:45UNT Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.7%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:31UNT Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:36FIU Touchdown, down 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.1%97% to makeGo for two4.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:06UNT Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:36UNT Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNTDrive 1PUNT14 plays · 1 yds · 13:4666% → 61%
Q1 13:46
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+6
34.5%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 35 yds , Rishard Dames returns for 6 yds to the FlaIn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2Uncategorized10 plays · 15 yds · 9:3536% → 39%
Q1 9:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
36.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass intercepted NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (Tyreke Davis) to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
38.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Carson Kaleo for 10 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 37
+9
38.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 9 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
39.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 11 yds to the NoTex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
39.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to EJ Wilson Jr. for 3 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD4 plays · 40 yds · 8:0367% → 68%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 6:2134% → 34%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 4:2965% → 66%
Q1 4:29
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
34.7%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 51 yds , Bryce Singleton returns for no gain to the FlaIn 10 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive holding (AJ Mathis) to the FlaIn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 2:5834% → 34%
UNTDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5866% → 66%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8Uncategorized6 plays · 11 yds · 1:2135% → 34%
UNTDrive 9TD3 plays · 80 yds · 12:4373% → 81%
FIUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 10:4427% → 21%
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
20.8%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, false start (Reggie Peterson) to the FlaIn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11TD2 plays · 52 yds · 10:0984% → 91%
FIUDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 6:2718% → 14%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
13.8%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive holding (Rey Burnett) to the FlaIn 15Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+4
13.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jackson McDonald for 4 yds to the FlaIn 19Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+10
13.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 10 yds to the FlaIn 29Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
13.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Jackson McDonald for 10 yds to the FlaIn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 34
+7
13.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 7 yds to the FlaIn 41Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
14.2%
pass incomplete to EJ Wilson Jr. FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive holding (David O'Meara) to the FlaIn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13TD4 plays · 80 yds · 4:4591% → 95%
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+37
5.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 37 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 3:3710% → 5%
UNTDrive 15TD9 plays · 76 yds · 0:3196% → 97%
FIUDrive 16END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17TD4 plays · 75 yds · 13:365% → 1%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
4.7%
M. Bortenschlager pass,to T. Chambers for 60 yds for a TD, (C. Gabriel KICK)Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Carson Kaleo for 5 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
1.0%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, illegal formation (Tyrese Chambers) to the FlaIn 25Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
1.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Bryce Singleton, broken up by Makyle Sanders for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (John Davis Jr.) to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18TD3 plays · 75 yds · 13:3695% → 99%
FIUDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 9:162% → 1%
UNTDrive 20TD5 plays · 55 yds · 7:3698% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21Uncategorized7 plays · 33 yds · 5:321% → 1%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
0.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Tyrese Chambers, broken up by Gabriel MurphySimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+16
0.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Dean Patterson for 16 yds to the FlaIn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 48
0
0.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Tyrese Chambers, broken up by DeShawn GaddieSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
0.5%
pass incomplete to Bryce Singleton FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive holding (Rey Burnett) to the FlaIn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22PUNT10 plays · 40 yds · 0:4499% → 99%
FIUDrive 23PUNT4 plays · -6 yds · 0:521% → 0%
UNTDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 10:37100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 25PUNT11 plays · 20 yds · 6:010% → 0%
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+11
0.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Dean Patterson for 11 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Jackson McDonald, broken up by Jordan BrownSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
0.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Dean Patterson for 7 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
50
-10
0.1%
Max Bortenschlager run to the 50 yard line FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offensive holding (Tamarick Best) to the FlaIn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26Uncategorized10 plays · 67 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:43
A. Aune pass,to R. Burns for 55 yds for a TD, (E. Mooney KICK)
-6.9
TD · Q2 0:00
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line
-6.6
TD · Q1 8:03
A. Aune run for 11 yds for a TD, (E. Mooney KICK)
-5.7