Try the model
USM

Southern Miss 17 at UTSA 27

UTSA
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Alamodome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG-2.6UTSA 84.2%Briggs Bourgeois 36 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 3 · Q2 2:19
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:19 · Briggs Bourgeois 36 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+35.7Home team on offense−9.2Score differential−1.7Garbage-time factor−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:21: Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 40 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +5.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:13: Frank Harris pass intercepted for a TD Natrone Brooks return for 34 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +8.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:00: Frank Harris pass complete to Leroy Watson for 24 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +12.0 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 4:39: Hunter Duplessis 24 yd FG GOOD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding (Demarcus Jones) declined — UTSA win probability +11.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:19: Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +20.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 7 at USM 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:11USM 4th & 26 at UTSA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:11UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:49USM 4th & 11 at USM 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:00UTSA 4th & 5 at USM 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%
    92% to make
    Punt
    92.8%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:32USM 4th & 1 at UTSA 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%−0.4
    89% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:32UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 31, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:19USM 4th & 9 at UTSA 19, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.9%
    77% to make
    Punt
    11.6%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:13UTSA 4th & 1 at USM 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.2%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%−2.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−9.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:03USM 4th & 1 at USM 13, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:48UTSA 4th & 5 at USM 30, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.5%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:48USM 4th & 1 at UTSA 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−4.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    33.5%−3.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 5 at USM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:06UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:39UTSA 4th & 7 at USM 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.2%−23.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 10:32USM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:21UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:13USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:00UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:19UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
98.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-4
98.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+5
98.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+56
98.0%
Mason Hunt punt for 46 yds UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, UR (10 Yards) to the TexSA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2INT
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
97.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 16 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
97.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 11 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
97.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+3
97.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 3 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+7
97.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 7 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-23
97.8%
Frank Harris pass intercepted Eric Scott Jr. return for 23 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3MISSED FG
12 plays · 30 yds · 6:443% → 4%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
97.3%
Dajon Richard run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 4
50
+10
97.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 10 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
97.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+4
97.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-5
97.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+32
97.3%
Frank Gore Jr. pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 32 yds to the TexSA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
97.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 7Similar
Q1 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
97.3%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 12Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
0
97.4%
Team run for no gain to the TexSA 26 Team fumbled, recovered by SoMis Frank Gore Jr.Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
0
97.3%
Frank Gore Jr. pass incomplete to Jason Brownlee, broken up by Ken RobinsonSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
97.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (Jason Brownlee) to the TexSA 17Similar
Q1 3:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 26
+28
96.2%
Briggs Bourgeois 43 yd FG MISSED SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the TexSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
96.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 3 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
96.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 47Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
96.3%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:11
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
96.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 48 yds, downed at the SoMis 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 2:074% → 5%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
95.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 6Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+1
95.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 7Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 8
OWN 7
-3
95.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (Jason Brownlee) to the SoMis 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 4
-2
95.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Dajon Richard) to the SoMis 2Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 2
+2
95.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 11
OWN 4
0
95.4%
Mason Hunt punt for 41 yds, downed at the SoMis 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6FG
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:3996% → 95%
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
95.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 14:39
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+34
95.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 34 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jason Brownlee) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
95.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jason Brownlee) to the SoMis 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
95.7%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 14:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
95.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for no gain to the SoMis 5Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
95.3%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
95.2%
Hunter Duplessis 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7TD
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:285% → 7%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
94.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 20Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+1
94.7%
Frank Gore Jr. pass complete to Brad Dennis for 1 yd to the TexSA 19Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+10
94.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 10 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+9
92.9%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
93.5%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+37
93.4%
Lucas Dean punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Natrone Brooks at the UTSA 27 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FG
18 plays · 49 yds · 6:168% → 16%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
92.1%
Dajon Richard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-5
92.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (Jason Brownlee) to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 13
OWN 29
-5
92.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Jason Brownlee) to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 18
OWN 24
+29
92.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 29 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
91.6%
Antavious Willis run for 3 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+24
91.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 24 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
91.4%
Team run for no gain to the TexSA 47 Team fumbled, recovered by SoMis Antavious WillisSimilar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 37
OPP 47
+7
89.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 30
OPP 40
+20
89.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
88.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (Jason Brownlee) to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+5
88.3%
Antavious Willis run for 5 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+4
88.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 6
OPP 16
-5
85.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 21Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+2
86.0%
Antavious Willis run for 2 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q2 2:19
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+36
84.2%
Briggs Bourgeois 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5886% → 91%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
85.6%
Frank Harris sacked by Dominic Quewon for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 21Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+10
85.4%
Frank Harris run for 10 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 2:19
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+29
85.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 29 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
91.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 40 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
88.9%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 11
OWN 32
-2
89.3%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12INT TD
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:4790% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
89.6%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 23Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-34
81.2%
Frank Harris pass intercepted for a TD Natrone Brooks return for 34 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13DOWNS
7 plays · 71 yds · 0:0081% → 83%
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
81.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 29 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+34
83.5%
Frank Harris run for 34 yds to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
84.2%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
84.2%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua Cephus, broken up by Natrone BrooksSimilar
Q3 14:13
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+7
83.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 7 yds to the SoMis 3Similar
Q3 14:13
4TH & 1
OPP 3
-1
82.5%
Frank Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
77.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 5Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 9
OWN 5
+6
77.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+2
78.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q3 12:03
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
78.7%
Mason Hunt punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15MISSED FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:4577% → 72%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
76.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+1
76.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 1 yd to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+20
75.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 20 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
78.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 6 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-1
78.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 9:33
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
77.6%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian ClarkSimilar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+47
71.9%
Hunter Duplessis 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0033% → 34%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
66.9%
Antavious Willis run for 2 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+17
66.6%
Antavious Willis run for 17 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
64.8%
Antavious Willis run for 2 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+5
64.6%
Antavious Willis run for 5 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+2
65.0%
Antavious Willis run for 2 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 1
OPP 42
0
66.5%
Antavious Willis run for no gain to the TexSA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:0066% → 82%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
66.1%
HARRIS, Frank crossing pass complete to CEPHUS, Joshua for 9 yards to the USM49, out-of-bounds (Moody, Tyrek), PENALTY USM holding (Toles, Brendan) 11 yards to the USM47, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
67.8%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+9
67.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 1
OPP 38
+2
67.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
67.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 4
OPP 30
0
69.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+4
67.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
69.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+24
81.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Leroy Watson for 24 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.2%
Antavious Willis pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
74.4%
Antavious Willis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
75.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Grayson Gunter) to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+12
75.9%
Antavious Willis pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 12 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
76.3%
Mason Hunt punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
75.3%
Frank Harris run for 13 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
77.3%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q4 13:06
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
76.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
77.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian ClarkSimilar
Q4 13:06
4TH & 5
OWN 45
+53
74.8%
Lucas Dean punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTSA 4 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Demarcus Jones) to the SoMis 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
70.8%
Antavious Willis run for 6 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 4
OWN 8
0
71.2%
Antavious Willis run for no gain to the SoMis 8Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+7
72.5%
Antavious Willis pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 7 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
70.4%
Antavious Willis run for 6 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+6
69.7%
Antavious Willis run for 6 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
69.8%
Antavious Willis run for 2 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+4
69.7%
Dajon Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+1
70.0%
Antavious Willis run for 1 yd to the SoMis 35 Antavious Willis fumbled, forced by Jaylon Haynes, recovered by TexSA Jahmal SamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:0074% → 81%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
73.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+17
73.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 17 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
73.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the SoMis 7Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
73.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Oscar CardenasSimilar
Q4 4:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
69.3%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q4 4:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
80.5%
Hunter Duplessis 24 yd FG GOOD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding (Demarcus Jones) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
73.7%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Gerquan Scott) to the SoMis 20Similar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
74.1%
Antavious Willis sacked by Corey Mayfield Jr. for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 9 Antavious Willis fumbled, recovered by TexSA Charles Wiley , return for 0 yards , return for 8 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23TD
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 4:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
94.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24INT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:008% → 6%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
92.5%
Antavious Willis run for 1 yd to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 35
-10
92.4%
Antavious Willis sacked by Jaylon Haynes for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 19
OWN 25
-5
94.0%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (Demarcus Jones) to the SoMis 20Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 24
OWN 20
-44
94.0%
Antavious Willis pass intercepted Antonio Parks return for 44 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
95.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 8 yds to the SoMis 2Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
95.6%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the SoMis 2Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
95.4%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:19
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
+20.6
TD · Q3 0:00
Frank Harris pass complete to Leroy Watson for 24 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
+12
FG · Q4 4:39
Hunter Duplessis 24 yd FG GOOD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding (Demarcus Jones) declined
+11.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com