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UNT

North Texas 38 at Southern Miss 14

USM
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameTD-2.4USM 0.9%KD Davis 43 Yd Fumble Return (EthanMooney Kick)AWAY 38 - HOME 14 · Q4 3:44
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:44 · KD Davis 43 Yd Fumble Return (Ethan Mooney Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Home team on offense−47.1Pregame prior−1.1Score differential−28.8Garbage-time factor−16.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−7.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:37: Jay Stanley 55 Yd Interception Return (Briggs Bourgeois Kick) — USM win probability +4.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:38: Isaiah Johnson 8 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick) — UNT win probability +10.9 pts (now 50%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:53: Ikaika Ragsdale 2 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick) — UNT win probability +13.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:01: Ikaika Ragsdale 44 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick) — UNT win probability +17.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:44: Gabriel Murphy 37 Yd Fumble Return (Ethan Mooney Kick) — UNT win probability +15.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UNT made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00UNT 4th & 5 at USM 45, tied
    Close callWent for it · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%−0.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    62.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:57UNT 4th & 9 at USM 34, tied
    Close callWent for it · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.7%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    61.7%
    47% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:02UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:47USM 4th & 4 at USM 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:33UNT 4th & 13 at UNT 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:32USM 4th & 11 at UNT 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    56.1%−1.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:12UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 17, down 14
    Close callPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:14USM 4th & 3 at UNT 38, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%−2.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%−2.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:12UNT 4th & 1 at USM 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%−2.2
    83% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−8.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:39USM 4th & 6 at USM 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:16UNT 4th & 1 at USM 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.5%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    43.1%−1.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−8.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:29USM 4th & 17 at USM 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−3.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:35USM 4th & 11 at USM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−3.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:44USM 4th & 4 at UNT 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−5.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:15UNT 4th & 5 at USM 11, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−5.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:03USM 4th & 12 at USM 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:20UNT 4th & 15 at UNT 48, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:02USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:37USM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:38UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:53UNT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:01UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:44UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:44UNT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1DOWNS
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:0367% → 66%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
32.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 7 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+18
32.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+5
32.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
32.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the SoMis 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
32.8%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 45
+10
32.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 10 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
32.8%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+1
32.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
32.8%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:57
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
34.0%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:5534% → 37%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
34.2%
Jake Lange pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 9 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+38
34.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 38 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
34.5%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 12 yds to the NoTex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
34.5%
GORE, Frank rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the UNT5 (DAVIS, KD;FAULKNER, Sean-Thomas). PENALTY USM Holding on WASHINGTON, Khalique enforced 10 yards from the UNT7 to the UNT17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
0
34.5%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+17
37.1%
Jason Brownlee 17 Yd pass from Jake Lange (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3INT TD
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:2564% → 59%
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
36.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
36.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
36.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 11 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
36.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 10:02
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
36.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 5
50
-55
40.9%
Jay Stanley 55 Yd Interception Return (Briggs Bourgeois Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:3559% → 57%
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
41.3%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
41.2%
Isaiah Johnson run for 6 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
41.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
41.1%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
41.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
43.4%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:1544% → 47%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
44.3%
Jake Lange pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 19 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
44.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-5
44.9%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+4
44.5%
Jake Lange pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 4 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
44.5%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:47
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
46.8%
Mason Hunt punt for 43 yds , Roderic Burns returns for no gain to the NoTex 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 2:1455% → 51%
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
45.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+5
45.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
45.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 25Similar
Q1 3:47
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+2
45.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q1 3:47
3RD & 13
OWN 27
0
45.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:33
4TH & 13
OWN 27
+2
48.7%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 40 yds , Da'quan Bailey-Brown returns for 2 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 3:0150% → 53%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
50.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+1
50.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+15
50.2%
LANGE, Jake pass to the right incomplete intended for BROWNLEE, Jason thrown to the USM48. PENALTY UNT Roughing the Passer enforced 15 yards from the USM40 to the UNT45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-7
53.1%
Jake Lange pass complete to Paul Gainer Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 48
+1
52.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+5
51.9%
Dajon Richard run for 5 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
53.2%
Mason Hunt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2048% → 46%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
52.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+3
52.0%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 3
OWN 17
0
52.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 3
OWN 17
+11
53.9%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 39 yds , Da'quan Bailey-Brown returns for 11 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:5857% → 58%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
57.0%
Jake Lange pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 9 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 1
OPP 36
0
57.0%
Dajon Richard run for no gain to the NoTex 36Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 1
OPP 36
-2
56.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 10:14
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
58.0%
Mason Hunt punt for 21 yds, downed at the NoTex 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10TD
14 plays · 83 yds · 4:3644% → 50%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+18
55.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 18 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
55.3%
AUNE, Austin pass to the right incomplete dropped by LYLES, Khatib thrown to the UNT35. PENALTY UNT Holding on PIRTLE, Jason enforced 10 yards from the UNT35 to the UNT25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 20
OWN 25
-10
55.7%
MORRIS, Dorian rush to the left for a gain of 1 yard to the UNT26 (QUEWON, Dominic). PENALTY UNT Holding on PIRTLE, Jason enforced 10 yards from the UNT25 to the UNT15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 30
OWN 15
+22
55.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 22 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+17
55.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Detraveon Brown for 17 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
54.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
54.3%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+15
53.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 15 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
53.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+1
59.5%
Austin Aune run for 1 yd to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+6
60.5%
Austin Aune run for 6 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 6:12
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+7
60.7%
Isaiah Johnson run for 7 yds to the SoMis 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
49.8%
Isaiah Johnson 8 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:5955% → 56%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
54.6%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 17 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
56.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 5:38
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
56.1%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+3
54.6%
Jake Lange pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 3 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 3:39
4TH & 6
OWN 46
+46
55.6%
Mason Hunt punt for 37 yds NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (9 Yards) to the NoTex 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12END OF HALF
22 plays · 91 yds · 3:3944% → 46%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
56.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
55.9%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+9
56.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 9 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
55.6%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-5
55.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 14Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 15
OWN 14
0
55.9%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 15
OWN 14
+41
56.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Detraveon Brown for 41 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
52.7%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+7
52.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
51.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+6
54.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 6 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+12
55.2%
Isaiah Johnson run for 12 yds to the SoMis 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
53.0%
Isaiah Johnson run for 6 yds to the SoMis 9Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 4
OPP 9
0
53.0%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-10
54.6%
AUNE, Austin pass to the left incomplete thrown to the USM2; QB hurried by KITCHEN, Eriq. PENALTY UNT Holding on ROBERTS, Jake enforced 10 yards from the USM9 to the USM19 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:16
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+13
58.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Detraveon Brown for 13 yds to the SoMis 6Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+3
55.8%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
53.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
53.8%
Austin Aune run for 2 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3158% → 57%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
58.4%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
58.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-6
56.8%
Jake Lange pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
56.9%
Mason Hunt punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:3643% → 61%
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
57.4%
Isaiah Johnson run for 16 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
55.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+5
55.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 5 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+17
55.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ikaika Ragsdale for 17 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
53.2%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q3 13:29
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+2
53.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 13:29
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+8
54.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 8 yds to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
53.2%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 10 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
39.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale 2 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 2:0948% → 43%
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
48.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 15
OWN 27
0
47.5%
Jake Lange sacked by Enoch Jackson Jr. and Gabriel Murphy for 0 yards to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 24
OWN 18
+5
47.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 9:44
3RD & 19
OWN 23
+8
45.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+43
46.2%
Mason Hunt punt for 43 yds , returns for no gain to the NoTex 41 , returns for no gain to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
42.6%
ADEYI, Ayo rush to the right for a gain of 13 yards to the USM46 (DANIEL, Lakevias). PENALTY UNT Holding on ROBERTS, Jake enforced 10 yards from the UNT41 to the UNT31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:3455% → 75%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 20
OWN 31
+4
45.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 4 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 16
OWN 35
+11
45.6%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 11 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+10
42.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 10 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
24.9%
Ikaika Ragsdale 44 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:1730% → 17%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.4%
Jake Lange pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 7 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q3 6:01
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
32.3%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jakarius Caston for 13 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+37
17.3%
Gabriel Murphy 37 Yd Fumble Return (Ethan Mooney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:0016% → 15%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
15.5%
Jake Lange pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+16
16.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 16 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
17.4%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
17.1%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 7 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+4
17.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 4 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
17.8%
Dajon Richard run for 19 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
18.4%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
16.2%
Jake Lange pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 1 yd to the NoTex 20Similar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+5
15.7%
Jake Lange pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 5 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 4
OPP 15
0
15.1%
Jake Lange sacked by KD Davis for 0 yards to the NoTex 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 6:2988% → 95%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
11.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 4 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+5
11.9%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 5 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+4
12.2%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
10.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+23
10.8%
Isaiah Johnson run for 23 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
9.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+3
9.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+6
9.6%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 6 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
9.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+4
9.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 4 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+5
9.6%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
9.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
0
9.3%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 14
+3
9.4%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q4 10:15
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
5.3%
Ethan Mooney 28 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:076% → 5%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
5.6%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
5.5%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 10
OWN 21
-2
5.4%
Jake Lange pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 9:03
4TH & 12
OWN 19
+7
5.3%
Mason Hunt punt for 53 yds , Roderic Burns returns for 7 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 3:4395% → 97%
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
4.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
4.6%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+9
4.7%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 9 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
4.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the SoMis 46Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-15
4.5%
AUNE, Austin pass to the right incomplete intended for WARD, Damon thrown to the USM29. PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on LYLES, Khatib enforced 15 yards to the UNT39 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:03
2ND & 24
OWN 39
0
4.8%
Austin Aune sacked by DaShawn Crawford and Averie Habas for 0 yards to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 29
OWN 34
+14
5.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Detraveon Brown for 14 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q4 5:20
4TH & 15
OWN 48
+21
3.5%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 35 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 21 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:363% → 1%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
3.3%
Jake Smithhart run for 3 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+2
3.4%
Dajon Richard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+43
0.9%
KD Davis 43 Yd Fumble Return (Ethan Mooney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23END OF GAME
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:371% → 1%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
0.9%
Dajon Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+6
0.9%
Dajon Richard run for 6 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+3
1.0%
Dajon Richard run for 3 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
1.0%
Dajon Richard run for 3 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
1.0%
Dajon Richard run for 4 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
0.7%
Dajon Richard run for 5 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:01
Ikaika Ragsdale 44 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)
-17.5
TD · Q3 4:44
Gabriel Murphy 37 Yd Fumble Return (Ethan Mooney Kick)
-15.1
TD · Q3 9:53
Ikaika Ragsdale 2 Yd Run (Ethan Mooney Kick)
-13.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com