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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 21 at Western Kentucky 48

WKU
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:36 · John Haggerty III punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior+30.0Home team on offense+1.9Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.8Blowout margin−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:07: Nick Vattiato pass intercepted for a TD Beanie Bishop return for 43 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +2.2 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:08: Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 36 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +4.4 pts (now 18%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:35: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 10 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +6.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:21: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 28 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +3.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:18: Bailey Zappe run for 8 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +2.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:21MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:57WKU 4th & 5 at WKU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:09MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:36WKU 4th & 12 at WKU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MTSU 4th & 10 at WKU 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    11.9%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:56WKU 4th & 5 at MTSU 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:24WKU 4th & 2 at MTSU 17, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 84.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.2%−0.5
    80% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−3.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:35MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:20WKU 4th & 5 at MTSU 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    92.2%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:17MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 43, down 17
    Close callPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:38WKU 4th & 6 at MTSU 25, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:57WKU 4th & 8 at WKU 47, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:28WKU 4th & 22 at WKU 18, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:25MTSU 4th & 3 at WKU 22, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:18WKU 4th & 2 at WKU 40, up 27
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:12MTSU 4th & 10 at WKU 10, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:49MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:21WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:09WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:07WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:08MTSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:35WKU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:21WKU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:18WKU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:35MTSU Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:1115% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.1%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 9 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
85.1%
Martell Pettaway run for no gain to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
85.1%
Frank Peasant run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
85.1%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 7 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
85.1%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Frank PeasantSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+3
85.1%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 3 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
85.1%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+45
83.3%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 45 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 1:2284% → 84%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
83.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+11
83.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 11 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
83.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+28
83.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 28 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
83.8%
Noah Whittington run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
83.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
84.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 17 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.7%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
83.7%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 2 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
83.8%
Nick Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:21
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
83.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 49 yds , Jerreth Sterns returns for no gain to the WKent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
83.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 5 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q1 8:57
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
83.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q1 8:57
3RD & 5
OWN 26
0
83.2%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:57
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
83.0%
John Haggerty III punt for 56 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for no gain to the MTnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
83.0%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+2
83.0%
Nick Vattiato run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-13
83.2%
Nick Vattiato pass intercepted Kahlef Hailassie return for 13 yds to the MTnSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:3683% → 85%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
83.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 14 yds to the MTnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
84.3%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to CJ Windham for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
84.2%
Nick Vattiato pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:09
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-1
84.4%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 6:09
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
84.6%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterns at the WKent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
84.3%
Noah Whittington run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 30Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
84.2%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Daewood Davis, broken up by Gregory Grate Jr.Similar
Q1 4:36
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
84.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q1 4:36
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
83.7%
John Haggerty III punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9INT TD
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:3416% → 14%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-13
83.9%
Vattiato, Nicho pass complete to Pettaway, Marte for 10 yards to the MTSU37 (BRADSHAW, D.), PENALTY MTSU pass interference 13 yards to the MTSU14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 23
OWN 14
+1
84.0%
DJ England-Chisolm run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 22
OWN 15
+11
84.1%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 11 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 11
OWN 26
-43
86.3%
Nick Vattiato pass intercepted for a TD Beanie Bishop return for 43 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10INT
11 plays · 38 yds · 2:0714% → 14%
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.2%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
86.1%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 6 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
86.1%
Frank Peasant run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
86.0%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to CJ Windham for 8 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q1 2:07
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+10
85.6%
Frank Peasant run for 10 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
85.9%
Mike DiLiello run for 1 yd to the WKent 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 36
-5
85.9%
DiLiello, Mike pass complete to Peasant, Frank for 6 yards to the WKU30 (HUNTER, J.;TERRELL, L.), PENALTY MTSU illegal formation 5 yards to the WKU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 41
0
86.2%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for no gain to the WKent 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+4
86.4%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 4 yds to the WKent 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
86.4%
Nick Vattiato pass intercepted Jaden Hunter return for no gain to the WKent 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11DOWNS
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+15
87.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 15 yds to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
87.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+9
88.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 9 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
88.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
88.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+5
87.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 5 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
87.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi Corley, broken up by Deidrick Stanley IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 1:3814% → 18%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
86.2%
Mike DiLiello run for 7 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+7
85.9%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to CJ Windham for 7 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
86.1%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to CJ Windham for 5 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
85.5%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-3
86.1%
DiLiello, Mike rush for 7 yards to the WKU26 (MALONE, D.), PENALTY MTSU holding (Pierce, Jarrin) 3 yards to the WKU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+36
81.6%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 36 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 3:3883% → 84%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
83.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 1 yd to the WKent 30Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
83.1%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+15
82.6%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to TINSLEY, M., PENALTY MTSU offside defense declined, PENALTY MTSU pass interference (Patterson, Deco) 15 yards to the WKU45, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
84.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 2 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+6
84.0%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+7
83.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 7 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
84.2%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to DAVIS, D., PENALTY MTSU pass interference (Riley, Quincy) 15 yards to the MTSU25, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
84.2%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
84.2%
Noah Whittington run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+5
83.7%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to STERNS, JOSH, PENALTY MTSU offside defense (Stanley, Deidri) 5 yards to the MTSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+4
83.9%
Adam Cofield run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+35
84.4%
Brayden Narveson 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14INT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
84.2%
Frank Peasant run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q2 5:24
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-4
84.4%
Nick Vattiato sacked by Jeremy Darvin for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-29
84.9%
Nick Vattiato pass intercepted Beanie Bishop return for 29 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0986% → 92%
Q2 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
85.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley, broken up by Teldrick RossSimilar
Q2 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
92.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 10 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.3%
Martell Pettaway run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
90.1%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Jarrin Pierce, broken up by Will IgnontSimilar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
90.4%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Yusuf Ali, broken up by DeAngelo MaloneSimilar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+4
90.5%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 39 yds , DeAngelo Wilson returns for 4 yds to the WKent 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 26 yds · 1:1992% → 92%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-5
91.9%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 33Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 15
OWN 33
+6
91.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 6 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+20
91.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Noah Whittington for 20 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
92.0%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+1
92.0%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
91.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Noah Whittington for no gain to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 5
OPP 36
0
92.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Daewood Davis, broken up by Quincy RileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
89.7%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 7 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
89.0%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
89.3%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
89.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterns at the WKent 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19END OF HALF
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
93.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+11
93.0%
Noah Whittington run for 11 yds to the WKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
92.8%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the WKent 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:3991% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
91.3%
Noah Whittington run for 8 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 34
-2
91.4%
Noah Whittington run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+16
91.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 16 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
91.7%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
91.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+17
91.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 17 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
96.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 28 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
96.3%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 9 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
96.1%
Mike DiLiello run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-4
96.2%
Martell Pettaway run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 33 Martell Pettaway fumbled, recovered by WKent Jaden HunterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 33 yds · 1:1697% → 100%
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Craig Burt Jr., broken up by Jalen JacksonSimilar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
97.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 2 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-5
96.9%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Mason Brooks) to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q3 10:34
3RD & 13
OPP 36
+28
96.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to for 28 yds to the MTnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.5%
Bailey Zappe run for 8 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.5%
Martell Pettaway run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
99.5%
Mike DiLiello pass intercepted Demetrius Cain return for no gain to the MTnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:57100% → 100%
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+4
99.6%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 8:35
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
99.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh Sterns, broken up by Teldrick RossSimilar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+43
99.6%
Brayden Narveson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25INT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.6%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to CJ Windham for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
99.6%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
99.6%
Frank Peasant run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.6%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 3 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
99.6%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 4 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+3
99.6%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
50
+2
99.6%
Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
99.6%
Nick Vattiato pass intercepted, touchback. Davion Williams return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 26PUNT
12 plays · 27 yds · 4:24100% → 100%
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.7%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
99.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 1 yd to the WKent 26Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
99.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 5 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
99.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 7 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
99.7%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the WKent 36 Noah Whittington fumbled, forced by Johnathan Butler, recovered by WKent Bailey ZappeSimilar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+9
99.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 9 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
99.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 8 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 2
OPP 47
-1
99.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi Corley, broken up by Jurriente DavisSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 48
-5
99.8%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Quantavious Leslie) to the WKent 47Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+68
99.8%
John Haggerty III punt for 37 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 68 yds to the WKent 16 Jaylin Lane fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Yusuf AliSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:040% → 0%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
99.8%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the WKent 12Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+7
99.8%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 7 yds to the WKent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.8%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 2 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 8
OWN 32
-14
99.8%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Raquon Hartley for a loss of 14 yards to the WKent 18 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, intentional grounding (Bailey Zappe) to the WKent 18Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 22
OWN 18
+7
99.8%
John Haggerty III punt for 49 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 7 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 29DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
99.9%
Jaylin Lane run for 16 yds to the WKent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
99.9%
Frank Peasant run for 8 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+1
99.8%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the WKent 35Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+6
99.8%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.8%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
99.8%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 5 yds to the WKent 24Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+2
99.8%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 2 yds to the WKent 22Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 3
OPP 22
0
99.8%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 30PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:44100% → 100%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
99.9%
Noah Whittington run for 10 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Noah Whittington run for 9 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-1
99.9%
Noah Whittington run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 40Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Jakairi Moses run for no gain to the WKent 40Similar
Q4 6:18
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
99.9%
John Haggerty III punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 31DOWNS
14 plays · 64 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
99.9%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+9
99.9%
DJ England-Chisolm run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.9%
Martell Pettaway run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
99.9%
Martell Pettaway run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
99.9%
Martell Pettaway run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+6
99.9%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+6
99.9%
Frank Peasant run for 6 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
99.9%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to JaMichael Thompson for 11 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
99.9%
Martell Pettaway run for 1 yd to the WKent 28Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+18
99.9%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 18 yds to the WKent 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Martell Pettaway run for no gain to the WKent 10Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Izaiah Gathings, broken up by Davion WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q4 6:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.9%
Nick Vattiato pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · 3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
100.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the WKent 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:35
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 10 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+6.5
TD · Q2 9:08
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 36 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-4.4
TD · Q3 11:21
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 28 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com