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USM

Southern Miss 10 at Middle Tennessee 35

MTSU
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:02 · Mason Hunt punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 165Pregame prior+3.9Home team on offense+33.4Score differential+17.5Garbage-time factor+11.2Blowout margin+13.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:47: Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 13 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +2.0 pts (now 24%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:08: Mike DiLiello run for 6 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:14: Tra Fluellen 18 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Zeke Rankin Kick) — MTSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 11:42: Jordan Branch 29 Yd Fumble Return (Zeke Rankin Kick) — MTSU win probability +4.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:26: DQ Thomas 43 Yd Interception Return (Zeke Rankin Kick) — MTSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USM made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 12:51MTSU 4th & 13 at MTSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:34USM 4th & 4 at USM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:04MTSU 4th & 3 at USM 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:14USM 4th & 7 at USM 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:15USM 4th & 22 at USM 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−1.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:03USM 4th & 3 at MTSU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:07MTSU 4th & 13 at MTSU 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00USM 4th & 21 at USM 46, down 14
    Numbers favored punt by 1.6 ptsWent for it · 12.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%−1.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:22USM 4th & 7 at USM 23, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:21MTSU 4th & 8 at USM 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:58USM 4th & 1 at USM 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.7%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:46USM 4th & 6 at MTSU 21, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−5.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:06USM 4th & 10 at USM 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:47MTSU 4th & 4 at USM 38, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    95.5%−0.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:35USM 4th & 1 at MTSU 33, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:59USM 4th & 15 at MTSU 27, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:30MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 33, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:02USM 4th & 6 at USM 21, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:08MTSU 4th & 2 at USM 2, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:47USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:08MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:14MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:42MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:26MTSU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0381% → 80%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
80.7%
Martell Pettaway run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
80.7%
Martell Pettaway run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+1
80.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 1 yd to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 8
OWN 39
-5
80.4%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Rachuan Mitchell for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q1 12:51
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+5
80.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 42 yds , Da'quan Bailey-Brown returns for 5 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:1020% → 21%
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
80.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 8 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 12:44
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+1
80.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 23Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+3
79.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
79.5%
Jake Lange sacked by Jalen Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+7
79.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 9:45
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
79.3%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Grayson GunterSimilar
Q1 9:34
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+6
79.4%
Mason Hunt punt for 53 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 6 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:2479% → 79%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
79.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 5 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+15
79.1%
(09:04) Cunningham,Chase pass incomplete to England-Chisolm,DJ PENALTY USM Pass Interference (Mitchell,Rachuan) 15 yards from MTS26 to MTS41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
79.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
79.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 39 Chaton Mobley fumbled, forced by Josh Carr Jr., recovered by SoMis Santrell LathamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:4622% → 24%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+18
78.3%
Jake Lange pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 18 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
78.1%
PENALTY USM False Start (Foxworth,Bryce) 5 yards from MTS21 to MTS26. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+13
78.1%
(08:04) Lange,Jake pass incomplete to Brownlee,Jason QB hurried by Blankenship,Reed PENALTY MTS Pass Interference (Ross,Teldrick) 13 yards from MTS26 to MTS13, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
78.0%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Cole CavalloSimilar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
76.0%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 13 yds for a TD, (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
Q1 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
76.0%
PENALTY USM False Start (Hulett,Justin) 5 yards from MTS03 to MTS08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
76.4%
PENALTY USM UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Scott,Gerquan) 15 yards from USM35 to USM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
76.5%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5INT
4 plays · 44 yds · 0:4977% → 77%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
76.5%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+14
76.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 14 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+30
76.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 30 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
76.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6FUMBLE
7 plays · 21 yds · 2:3924% → 27%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
75.8%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 8Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
75.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Illegal Shift (Demarcus Jones) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+12
75.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 12 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
75.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
74.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 11 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
73.5%
Dajon Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 11
OWN 41
-12
73.4%
Jake Lange sacked by Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 12 yards to the SoMis 29 Jake Lange fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Ja'Kerrius Wyatt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:1476% → 79%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
75.5%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+5
75.2%
Martell Pettaway run for 5 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
74.2%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Izaiah GathingsSimilar
Q1 2:04
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+6
73.4%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 6 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
74.3%
Martell Pettaway run for 2 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+6
74.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (Rachuan Mitchell) to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
78.6%
Mike DiLiello run for 6 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT TD
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3024% → 19%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
76.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
75.4%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q1 0:23
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
75.8%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+18
80.7%
Tra Fluellen 18 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FUMBLE RETURN TD
9 plays · -3 yds · 3:1820% → 15%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
80.1%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+6
80.0%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 6 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
79.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
79.7%
Dajon Richard run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
79.1%
(13:21) Richard,Dajon rush for 4 yards gain to the MTS39 (Grate,Gregory; Thomas,DQ) PENALTY USM Holding (Bolding,John) 10 yards from MTS43 to USM47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+1
79.9%
Jake Lange pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 1 yd to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 19
OWN 48
+1
80.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 49Similar
Q2 11:42
3RD & 18
OWN 49
+29
84.9%
Jordan Branch 29 Yd Fumble Return (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:2715% → 14%
Q2 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
84.7%
PENALTY USM False Start (Gunter,Grayson) 5 yards from USM25 to USM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
84.9%
Dajon Richard run for no gain to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+17
85.2%
Dajon Richard run for 17 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
84.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jake Lange) to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 10:19
2ND & 23
OWN 24
-1
85.2%
Jake Lange sacked by Jorden Starling for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 24
OWN 23
+2
85.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 22
OWN 25
+63
85.8%
Mason Hunt punt for 45 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 63 yds to the SoMis 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:2187% → 87%
Q2 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
87.2%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 4 yds to the SoMis 3Similar
Q2 8:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
87.3%
Mike DiLiello run for 3 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12INT
13 plays · 52 yds · 5:0414% → 15%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
85.6%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 3 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
85.6%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Da'quan Bailey-BrownSimilar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+12
85.8%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 12 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
85.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 13 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
85.2%
Dajon Richard run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 8
50
-5
85.1%
(06:19) Lange,Jake pass complete to Brownlee,Jason for 5 yards to the MTS45 (Ross,Teldrick; Davis,Jurriente) PENALTY USM Illegal Formation (Gainer,Paul) 5 yards from USM50 to USM45. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+18
86.0%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 18 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
85.2%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
85.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
85.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+4
85.6%
Jake Lange pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 4 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
84.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
85.3%
Jake Lange pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -18 yds · 2:0488% → 88%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
88.0%
Mike DiLiello run for 7 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+1
88.5%
Yusuf Ali run for 1 yd to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
88.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 3
OPP 47
-5
88.1%
PENALTY MTS Delay Of Game (DiLiello,Mike) 5 yards from USM47 to MTS48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:16
4TH & 8
OWN 48
-5
87.9%
PENALTY MTS False Start (Lane,Jaylin) 5 yards from MTS48 to MTS43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
87.8%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 57 yds for a touchback for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 4 yds · 1:0213% → 11%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
87.1%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 10 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
86.8%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Brad DennisSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
87.0%
Jake Lange pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 12 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-7
85.9%
Jake Lange sacked by Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 17
50
0
87.9%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Demarcus JonesSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 17
50
+4
88.1%
Dajon Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 21
OWN 46
-7
89.4%
Jake Lange sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:3113% → 12%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
87.5%
PENALTY USM False Start (Gunter,Grayson) 5 yards from USM20 to USM15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+1
87.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 14Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 16
OWN 14
0
87.9%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Cole CavalloSimilar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+9
88.0%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 9 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 13:22
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
88.2%
Mason Hunt punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0089% → 91%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
88.6%
PENALTY MTS False Start (Palmer,Jordan) 5 yards from MTS33 to MTS28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 15
OWN 28
-4
88.7%
Mike DiLiello sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 12:43
2ND & 19
OWN 24
+43
88.6%
Mike DiLiello run for 43 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
89.4%
Martell Pettaway run for no gain to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+2
89.6%
Mike DiLiello run for 2 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 11:28
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
89.3%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Jaylin LaneSimilar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+49
91.2%
Zeke Rankin 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 3:209% → 9%
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
90.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 3 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 10:57
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
90.8%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Demarcus JonesSimilar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+6
91.1%
Jake Lange pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 6 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
91.1%
Dajon Richard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
90.8%
Dajon Richard run for 1 yd to the SoMis 41Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 11
OWN 41
0
91.1%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 11
OWN 41
+34
91.7%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 34 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
89.8%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q3 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
90.5%
Jake Lange pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 4 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
90.7%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Brad DennisSimilar
Q3 7:46
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
91.3%
Briggs Bourgeois 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 81 yds · 2:0994% → 96%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
93.8%
Mike DiLiello run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+7
94.0%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 7 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
94.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+40
94.1%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 40 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
95.0%
Martell Pettaway run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+12
95.1%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 12 yds to the SoMis 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
95.9%
Mike DiLiello run for 14 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:416% → 5%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
94.5%
Jake Lange pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 15 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
94.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+1
94.6%
Jake Lange pass complete to Cole Cavallo for 1 yd to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
94.8%
Jake Lange pass incomplete to Demarcus JonesSimilar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
94.8%
Mason Hunt punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20DOWNS
5 plays · 17 yds · 2:1096% → 96%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
96.2%
Jaylin Lane run for 11 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
96.4%
Mike DiLiello run for 1 yd to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
96.4%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q3 1:18
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+5
96.5%
Mike DiLiello pass complete to Martell Pettaway for 5 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 0:47
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
96.4%
Mike DiLiello pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:115% → 1%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
95.3%
Jake Lange pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-43
99.1%
DQ Thomas 43 Yd Interception Return (Zeke Rankin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 49 yds · 1:281% → 1%
Q3 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+11
99.2%
Tee Webb pass complete to Brad Dennis for 11 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
99.2%
(00:00) Webb,Tee pass incomplete to Dennis,Brad PENALTY MTS Personal Foul (Parks,Wayne) 15 yards from USM28 to USM43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
99.0%
(00:00) Webb,Tee pass incomplete to Jones,Demarcus QB hurried by Wood,Zaylin PENALTY MTS Roughing The Passer (Wood,Zaylin) 15 yards from USM43 to MTS42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.0%
Tee Webb pass incomplete to Jakarius CastonSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.0%
Dajon Richard run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+7
99.1%
Tee Webb pass complete to Dajon Richard for 7 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q4 13:35
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+1
99.0%
Dajon Richard run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · -12 yds · 1:06100% → 100%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
99.5%
Mike DiLiello run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+4
99.5%
Mike DiLiello run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q4 12:09
3RD & 12
OWN 32
+10
99.5%
JaMichael Thompson run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 22 JaMichael Thompson fumbled, forced by Santrell Latham, recovered by SoMis Santrell LathamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:051% → 1%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.0%
Tee Webb pass incomplete to Jason BrownleeSimilar
Q4 11:36
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+5
99.1%
Dee Baker run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 15
OPP 27
0
99.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 15
OPP 27
0
99.2%
Tee Webb pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 2:11100% → 100%
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.6%
Martell Pettaway run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
99.6%
Martell Pettaway run for no gain to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+1
99.7%
Martell Pettaway run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q4 8:30
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
99.6%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 50 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
99.7%
Dajon Richard run for 4 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 7:25
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Dajon Richard run for no gain to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Jake Smithhart pass incomplete to Luke BakerSimilar
Q4 7:02
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
99.7%
Mason Hunt punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 65 yds · 6:36100% → 100%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
99.7%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+12
99.8%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to Marquel Tinsley for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
50
+5
99.8%
Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
99.8%
Frank Peasant run for 3 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 3:51
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+12
99.8%
Frank Peasant run for 12 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
99.8%
Frank Peasant run for 20 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
99.9%
Nick Vattiato pass complete to JaMichael Thompson for 4 yds to the SoMis 6Similar
Q4 1:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.9%
Nick Vattiato run for 5 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q4 0:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the SoMis 2Similar
Q4 0:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.9%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the SoMis 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
99.8%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:14
Tra Fluellen 18 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Zeke Rankin Kick)
+4.9
TD · Q2 11:42
Jordan Branch 29 Yd Fumble Return (Zeke Rankin Kick)
+4.9
TD · Q1 1:08
Mike DiLiello run for 6 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com