2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:36 · Tommy Heatherly punt for 47 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 6:50: Shane Ciucci 29 yd FG GOOD — MRSH win probability +3.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:00: Grant Wells run for 2 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +6.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:33: Sheldon Evans run for 41 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +5.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:00: Grant Wells run for 7 yds to the FlaIn 41 — MRSH win probability +1.9 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:16: Rasheen Ali run for 6 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +5.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 4 of 6FIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 13:04FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it9.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q1 11:53MRSH 4th & 10 at MRSH 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snapGo for it90.5%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.6%average punt
- Q1 10:20FIU 4th & 8 at FIU 41, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.9%average punt
- Q1 6:50MRSH 4th & 6 at FIU 12, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.2% before the snapGo for it89.1%−<0.136% to convertField goalTheir call89.2%86% to makePunt88.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 3:36FIU 4th & 12 at MRSH 47, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snapGo for it11.2%−0.223% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call11.4%average punt
- Q2 14:11MRSH 4th & 4 at FIU 42, up 3Close callPunted · 87.1% before the snapGo for it87.2%48% to convertField goal86.8%−0.430% to makePuntTheir call87.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 11:56FIU 4th & 4 at FIU 10, down 3Close callPunted · 13.0% before the snapGo for it13.0%46% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call12.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:02FIU 4th & 5 at FIU 22, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snapGo for it8.2%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.5%average punt
- Q2 0:04FIU 4th & 1 at MRSH 27, down 21Close callKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snapGo for it5.2%71% to convertField goalTheir call4.3%−0.962% to makePunt2.4%−2.8average punt
- Q3 13:06MRSH 4th & 7 at FIU 40, up 21Close callPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.9%37% to convertField goal96.6%−0.234% to makePuntTheir call96.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 7:26FIU 4th & 10 at MRSH 17, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.8% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.427% to convertField goalTheir call2.6%80% to makePunt0.8%−1.8average punt
- Q4 14:49FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 29, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q4 13:07MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 34, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.234% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.9%average punt
- Q4 11:24FIU 4th & 1 at FIU 38, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.8%−0.3average punt
- Q4 5:40MRSH 4th & 7 at MRSH 45, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.2%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.3%average punt
- Q4 0:16FIU 4th & 17 at MRSH 33, down 21Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.5%−0.214% to convertField goal0.7%49% to makePunt0.5%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 9:00MRSH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call89.4%97% to makeGo for two89.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:33MRSH Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call91.5%97% to makeGo for two91.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:16MRSH Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFIUDrive 1Uncategorized14 plays · -7 yds · 13:0413% → 18%
MRSHDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 11:5387% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 10:2014% → 18%
Q1 10:20
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+43
86.2%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 43 yds , Willie Johnson returns for 4 yds to the Marsh 20 , Willie Johnson returns for no gain to the Marsh 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4FG12 plays · 68 yds · 6:5086% → 84%
FIUDrive 5PUNT8 plays · 28 yds · 4:3516% → 17%
MRSHDrive 6PUNT10 plays · 38 yds · 15:0083% → 79%
FIUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 11:5617% → 20%
MRSHDrive 8TD7 plays · 35 yds · 9:0086% → 87%
FIUDrive 9INT2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
MRSHDrive 10TD2 plays · 48 yds · 7:3390% → 92%
FIUDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 6:0211% → 10%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
90.3%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the FlaIn 12Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 15
OWN 12
+7
90.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Shaun Peterson Jr. for 7 yds to the FlaIn 19Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+3
90.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 3 yds to the FlaIn 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12TD9 plays · 77 yds · 3:1696% → 97%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+34
96.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 34 yds to the FlaIn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
96.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 9 yds to the FlaIn 34Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
96.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 9 yds to the FlaIn 16Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
96.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 8 yds to the FlaIn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13MISSED FG12 plays · 48 yds · 0:045% → 5%
Q2 0:04
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+8
94.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 8 yds to the Marsh 27Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Nate Jefferson for 6 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
95.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Shaun Peterson Jr. for 6 yds to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
95.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Tyrese Chambers, broken up by Micah AbrahamSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+3
95.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Lexington Joseph for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Brian Cavicante) to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+23
95.1%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 23 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
94.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 1 yd to the Marsh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 35 yds · 13:0696% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 6 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15MISSED FG11 plays · 78 yds · 7:263% → 2%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+14
98.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 14 yds to the FlaIn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+41
98.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 41 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-1
98.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 15Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 15
-2
98.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16TD16 plays · 80 yds · 0:3099% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
98.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 3 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
98.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 6 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 29
+12
98.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 12 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
98.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 6 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
50
+10
98.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 10 yds to the FlaIn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+20
98.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 20 yds to the FlaIn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
98.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 5 yds to the FlaIn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 15:001% → 1%
Q4 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete to Randall St. Felix, broken up by Nazeeh JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18Uncategorized3 plays · 0 yds · 0:16100% → 100%
MRSHDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 13:0799% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 11:241% → 1%
MRSHDrive 21TD5 plays · 38 yds · 9:1699% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
99.6%
Luke Zban pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 9 yds to the FlaIn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22FUMBLE3 plays · 19 yds · 8:061% → 1%
Q4 8:06
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+17
99.0%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 17 yds Kaylan Wiggins fumbled, recovered by Marsh Daniel FosterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 5:4099% → 100%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-4
99.6%
Cam Fancher run for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 39 Cam Fancher fumbled, recovered by MarshSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 24DOWNS13 plays · 51 yds · 0:161% → 1%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
99.5%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Jackson McDonald for 9 yds to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
99.5%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Caleb Lynum for 11 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+15
99.5%
Kaylan Wiggins pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 15 yds to the Marsh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:00
Grant Wells run for 2 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)
+6.4
TD · Q2 3:16
Rasheen Ali run for 6 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)
+5.3
TD · Q2 7:33
Sheldon Evans run for 41 yds for a TD (Shane Ciucci KICK)
+5.1