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CLT

Charlotte 13 at Western Kentucky 45

WKU
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreCLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:39 · Bailey Zappe pass intercepted return for no gain to the Charl 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 33Pregame prior+31.6Home team on offense+0.7Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.3Blowout margin−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:21: Bailey Zappe run for 2 yds for a TD CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive offside (Markees Watts) declined, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +2.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:09: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 13 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +4.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:40: James Foster run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +4.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:27: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 21 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +5.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:04: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 9 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +3.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CLT made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:39CLT 4th & 17 at WKU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:39WKU 4th & 13 at WKU 22, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.1%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:39CLT 4th & 2 at WKU 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−0.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    12.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:39CLT 4th & 4 at WKU 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:40WKU 4th & 4 at CLT 33, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.2%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:06CLT 4th & 12 at WKU 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.1%
    36% to make
    Punt
    10.9%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:06CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 34, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00WKU 4th & 15 at WKU 43, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:23CLT 4th & 2 at WKU 31, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%−0.6
    54% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:04CLT 4th & 8 at CLT 29, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:28CLT 4th & 26 at CLT 24, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:03CLT 4th & 2 at WKU 46, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CLT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:44WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:21WKU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:09WKU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:40CLT Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:27WKU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:04WKU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:09WKU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CLTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.6%
James Foster pass incomplete to Ryan CarriereSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
85.6%
Shadrick Byrd run for 5 yds to the Charl 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
85.6%
James Foster pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+13
85.6%
Bailey Rice punt for 30 yds , Jerreth Sterns returns for 13 yds to the Charl 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:1985% → 85%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
85.4%
Adam Cofield run for 10 yds to the Charl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
85.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Daewood DavisSimilar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+8
85.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 8 yds to the Charl 29Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+4
85.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the Charl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
85.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 26Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 11
OPP 26
+15
85.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 15 yds to the Charl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
85.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 11 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
85.4%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 5:0515% → 16%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.3%
Shadrick Byrd run for 9 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
85.2%
James Foster pass complete to Grant DuBose for 13 yds to the Charl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
85.2%
James Foster run for 15 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
85.1%
James Foster run for 3 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+10
85.0%
James Foster pass complete to Keith Pearson for 10 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
85.0%
James Foster pass incomplete to Grant DuBose, broken up by Kahlef HailassieSimilar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+12
85.1%
James Foster pass complete to Bryce Kennon for 12 yds to the WKent 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
85.0%
James Foster pass incomplete to Grant DuBose, broken up by Dominique BradshawSimilar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
85.0%
Calvin Camp run for no gain to the WKent 13Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-5
84.5%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, illegal procedure (Hunter Kelly) to the WKent 18Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 15
OPP 18
-2
84.7%
James Foster run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 20Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 17
OPP 20
+37
84.3%
Jonathan Cruz 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4INT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 9 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q1 6:39
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-17
84.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the WKent 17Similar
Q1 6:39
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
83.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns, broken up by Douglas NewsomeSimilar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+5
83.6%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive offside (Markees Watts) to the WKent 22Similar
Q1 6:39
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
83.6%
Bailey Zappe pass intercepted return for no gain to the Charl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5INT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
83.5%
James Foster pass incomplete to Grant DuBoseSimilar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
83.6%
Calvin Camp run for 4 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+4
83.5%
Shadrick Byrd run for 4 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+6
83.8%
James Foster run for 6 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
83.5%
James Foster pass incomplete to Shadrick ByrdSimilar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
83.5%
ChaVon McEachern run for 6 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
83.5%
James Foster pass incomplete to Victor Tucker, broken up by Will IgnontSimilar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
83.8%
James Foster pass intercepted Demetrius Cain return for no gain to the WKent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:2983% → 86%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+45
83.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 45 yds to the Charl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
84.0%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to CORLEY, M., PENALTY CLT pass interference (Newsome,D) 15 yards to the CLT13, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
84.0%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the Charl 13Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
84.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Dalvin SmithSimilar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+11
83.7%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to STERNS, JERR, PENALTY CLT pass interference (Creamer,T) 11 yards to the CLT2, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
86.0%
Bailey Zappe run for 2 yds for a TD CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive offside (Markees Watts) declined, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
85.5%
Shadrick Byrd run for 16 yds to the Charl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
85.2%
James Foster pass complete to Victor Tucker for 11 yds Victor Tucker fumbled, forced by Kendrick Simpkins, recovered by WKent Jaden Hunter , return to the 50 yard line , return for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:2086% → 90%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
50
+1
85.9%
Jerreth Sterns run for 1 yd to the Charl 49Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+17
85.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 17 yds to the Charl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
86.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for no gain to the Charl 32Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
85.9%
Bailey Zappe run for 7 yds to the Charl 25Similar
Q1 0:29
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+12
85.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 12 yds to the Charl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
90.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 13 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2911% → 16%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.4%
Shadrick Byrd run for 5 yds to the Charl 30Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
89.2%
James Foster run for 10 yds to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
89.1%
James Foster run for 5 yds to the Charl 45Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
88.9%
Victor Tucker run for no gain to the Charl 45Similar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+53
89.1%
James Foster pass complete to Shadrick Byrd for 53 yds to the WKent 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
88.5%
Shadrick Byrd run for 1 yd to the WKent 1Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.5%
James Foster run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10INT
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
86.7%
Adam Cofield run for 2 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+8
86.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 8 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
87.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 8 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
87.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 3 yds to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
87.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 10 yds to the Charl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Ben RatzlaffSimilar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
87.3%
Adam Cofield run for 2 yds to the Charl 37Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+4
87.0%
Bailey Zappe run for 4 yds to the Charl 33Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 4
OPP 33
0
86.6%
Bailey Zappe pass intercepted Justin Whisenhunt return for no gain to the Charl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 11FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:1014% → 14%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+39
86.3%
Calvin Camp run for 39 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
85.2%
James Foster pass incomplete to Grant DuBoseSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
85.2%
James Foster pass complete to Calvin Camp for 4 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-6
85.2%
James Foster sacked by Juwuan Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the WKent 39Similar
Q2 3:06
4TH & 12
OPP 39
+56
86.0%
Jonathan Cruz 56 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3985% → 92%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
85.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 23 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
86.1%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Daewood Davis) to the WKent 43Similar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+30
85.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 30 yds to the Charl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
86.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley, broken up by Trey CreamerSimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+6
86.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 6 yds to the Charl 21Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+21
91.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 21 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:2110% → 10%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
89.6%
Shadrick Byrd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 30Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+2
89.8%
James Foster run for 2 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+2
89.9%
James Foster run for 2 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
89.6%
Bailey Rice punt for 65 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14END OF HALF
4 plays · 36 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
92.5%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the WKent 4Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 7
OWN 4
+10
92.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 10 yds to the WKent 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+14
91.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 14 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
91.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 9 yds to the WKent 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 0:0091% → 90%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
90.5%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Rusty Staats) to the WKent 20Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
90.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds to the WKent 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
90.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley, broken up by Solomon RogersSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
90.0%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to STERNS, JERR, PENALTY CLT offside declined, PENALTY CLT pass interference (Murray,T) 15 yards to the WKU37, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
90.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 11 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
91.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Noah Whittington for 8 yds to the Charl 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-8
91.0%
Daewood Davis run for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-5
90.5%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Quantavious Leslie) to the WKent 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 43
0
90.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
89.7%
John Haggerty III punt for 45 yds, downed at the Charl 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16DOWNS
13 plays · 57 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
89.9%
Shadrick Byrd run for 4 yds to the Charl 16Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+4
89.9%
Calvin Camp run for 4 yds to the Charl 20Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+4
90.0%
Calvin Camp run for 4 yds to the Charl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
89.8%
James Foster pass complete to Victor Tucker for 11 yds to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
89.4%
James Foster pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 11 yds to the Charl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
89.0%
Calvin Camp run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 6
50
+5
88.6%
Calvin Camp run for 5 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 1
OPP 45
-5
88.5%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, delay of game (James Foster) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 6
50
+11
88.9%
James Foster pass complete to Grant DuBose for 11 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
88.6%
Shadrick Byrd run for 2 yds to the WKent 37Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+2
88.6%
Shadrick Byrd run for 2 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+4
88.7%
James Foster run for 4 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
89.0%
James Foster pass incomplete to Shadrick Byrd, broken up by Darius ShippSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17TD
9 plays · 69 yds · 2:4694% → 98%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
94.2%
Noah Whittington run for 7 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
94.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+2
94.3%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to CORLEY, M., PENALTY CLT pass interference (Howard,G) 2 yards to the WKU40, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+27
94.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 27 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
94.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 12 yds to the Charl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
94.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the Charl 19Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+10
94.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 10 yds to the Charl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
94.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Ben RatzlaffSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
98.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 9 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
98.2%
James Foster pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+4
98.2%
ChaVon McEachern run for 4 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-2
98.1%
James Foster pass complete to ChaVon McEachern for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 29Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+5
98.2%
Victor Tucker run for 5 yds to the Charl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19FG
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:5299% → 99%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
98.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 7 yds to the Charl 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-5
98.6%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Cole Spencer) to the Charl 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+5
98.6%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the Charl 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+4
98.6%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the Charl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
98.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 13 yds to the Charl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Ben Ratzlaff, broken up by Douglas NewsomeSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-6
98.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 6 yds to the Charl 4 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive holding (Dakota Thomas) to the Charl 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 0
OPP 16
0
98.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 0
OPP 16
-1
98.6%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to CORLEY, M., PENALTY WKU illegal forward pass (ZAPPE, B.) 1 yards to the CLT17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 0
OPP 17
+35
99.4%
Brayden Narveson 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.3%
Shadrick Byrd run for 11 yds to the Charl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-8
99.2%
James Foster pass complete to Ryan Carriere for a loss of 8 yards Ryan Carriere fumbled, forced by DeAngelo Malone, recovered by Charl Ryan CarriereSimilar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 21
OWN 25
+15
99.0%
James Foster pass complete to Victor Tucker for a loss of 6 yards to the Charl 19 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, face mask (21 yards) (Beanie Bishop) to the Charl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.2%
James Foster run for 3 yds to the Charl 43Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
99.2%
James Foster run for 1 yd to the Charl 44Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-10
99.3%
Foster,J pass incomplete to DuBose,G, PENALTY CLT holding (Moore,TJ) 10 yards to the CLT34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & 16
OWN 34
-5
99.2%
James Foster sacked by Marcus Bragg for a loss of 5 yards to the Charl 29Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 21
OWN 29
-5
98.9%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, delay of game (Bailey Rice) to the Charl 24Similar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 26
OWN 24
0
98.9%
Bailey Rice punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterns at the WKent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 3:09100% → 100%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+22
99.7%
Noah Whittington run for 22 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
99.7%
Noah Whittington run for 20 yds to the Charl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
99.7%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the Charl 16Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+2
99.7%
Noah Whittington run for 2 yds to the Charl 14Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+13
99.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 13 yds to the Charl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.9%
James Foster pass incomplete to Grant DuBoseSimilar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.9%
James Foster pass complete to Grant DuBose for 1 yd to the Charl 21 CHARLOTTE Penalty, illegal shift (Markees Watts) declinedSimilar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+12
99.9%
Jonathan Cruz run for 12 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
99.9%
Jonathan Cruz run for 4 yds to the Charl 37Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 6
OWN 37
-2
99.9%
James Foster run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 36 James Foster fumbled, forced by JaQues Evans, recovered by CharlSimilar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+10
99.9%
Jonathan Cruz run for 10 yds to the Charl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Jonathan Cruz run for no gain to the Charl 46Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
Jonathan Cruz run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 6
50
+4
99.9%
Jonathan Cruz run for 4 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-4
99.9%
Tank Robinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
50
+5
100.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the Charl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:27
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 21 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+5.2
TD · Q2 13:09
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 13 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q2 9:40
James Foster run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
-4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com