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LIB

Liberty 35 at North Texas 26

UNT
2021 · Week 8 · Oct 23, 2021 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadLIB aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreLIB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+24.3UNT 65.1%Jason Pirtle 6 Yd pass from AustinAune (Two-Point Pass ConversionFailed)AWAY 14 - HOME 26 · Q3 7:27
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:27 · Jason Pirtle 6 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 120Pregame prior−22.4Home team on offense+16.3Score differential+5.0Garbage-time factor+6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:13: CJ Daniels 39 Yd pass from Johnathan Bennett (Brayden Beck Kick) — LIB win probability +10.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:27: Jason Pirtle 6 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — UNT win probability +24.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:16: CJ Daniels 20 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick) — LIB win probability +24.3 pts (now 63%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 3:03: Demario Douglas 72 Yd Punt Return (Brayden Beck Kick) — LIB win probability +16.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:19: Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 37 yds for a TD (Brayden Beck KICK) — LIB win probability +13.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 8 of 10LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:14LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:42LIB 4th & 24 at LIB 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.4%−0.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:17UNT 4th & 3 at LIB 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.0%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    22.6%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    20.0%−3.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:47LIB 4th & 29 at LIB 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.4%−2.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:14UNT 4th & 4 at LIB 17, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.4%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−4.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:00LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.7%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:00UNT 4th & 1 at LIB 35, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    32.6%−2.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−3.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:51UNT 4th & 9 at LIB 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−8.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:08LIB 4th & 8 at UNT 35, down 6
    Close callWent for it · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.9%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    66.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    64.8%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:07LIB 4th & 10 at UNT 27, down 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.2%−1.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%
    62% to make
    Punt
    61.4%−3.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:33LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 43, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:33UNT 4th & 1 at LIB 10, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.9%−2.5
    88% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−10.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:03UNT 4th & 14 at UNT 21, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−8.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:54UNT 4th & 7 at LIB 42, down 2
    Close callPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−2.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:08UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 34, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.4%−1.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:11UNT 4th & 8 at LIB 36, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%−0.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:00LIB 4th & 13 at LIB 33, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−3.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:44UNT 4th & 8 at LIB 9, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    5.3%−5.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 6:04UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:15LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:25UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:13LIB Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:27UNT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    67.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:16LIB Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:03LIB Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:19LIB Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1INT
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:398% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
7.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 7 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+3
7.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
7.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 10 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
7.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
50
+10
7.9%
Roderic Burns run for 10 yds to the Liber 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
7.9%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
7.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+11
7.9%
Austin Aune run for 11 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
7.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the Liber 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+2
7.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the Liber 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+10
7.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Bryson Jackson for 10 yds to the Liber 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
7.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the Liber 5Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 4
OPP 5
0
10.0%
Austin Aune pass intercepted return for no gain to the Liber 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:0790% → 89%
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+3
9.7%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the Liber 4Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 7
OWN 4
0
9.7%
LIBERTY Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the Liber 2Similar
Q1 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+2
9.7%
Shedro Louis run for 2 yds to the Liber 4Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
9.8%
Malik Willis sacked by Grayson Murphy for 0 yards to the Liber 2Similar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 9
OWN 2
0
10.7%
Max Morgan punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:1011% → 14%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
10.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 11 yds to the Liber 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
11.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 14 yds to the Liber 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
11.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the Liber 10Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+7
11.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the Liber 3Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+1
10.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the Liber 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.6%
DeAndre Torrey 2 Yd Run (Aaron Beckham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 2:0987% → 85%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
12.8%
Malik Willis run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 48Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
13.1%
Malik Willis sacked by KD Davis and Grayson Murphy for 0 yards to the Liber 44Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 21
OWN 44
-10
13.3%
QB Keeper WILLIS, Malik rush to the right for a gain of 15 yards to the UNT41, out of bounds. PENALTY LIB Holding on MCCAW, Cooper enforced 10 yards from the LIB44 to the LIB34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 31
OWN 34
+7
13.5%
Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 24
OWN 41
+20
15.2%
Max Morgan punt for 40 yds , Roderic Burns returns for 20 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5DOWNS
15 plays · 54 yds · 5:2515% → 20%
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
15.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 6 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-1
15.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 3:42
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+4
15.3%
Austin Aune run for 4 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+6
16.3%
LIBERTY Penalty, Delay Of Game (Rashaad Harding) to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
16.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 5 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+15
17.7%
AUNE, Austin pass to the right intercepted by TREADWELL, Juawan at the LIB37 intended for WARD, Damon. Treadwell return for 2 yards to the LIB39 (TEAM). PENALTY LIB Pass Interference enforced 15 yards to the LIB26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
17.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 4 yds to the Liber 22Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
17.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the Liber 19Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+1
18.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the Liber 18Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+5
18.1%
BECKHAM, Aaron field goal attempt from 36 yards GOOD [kick was spotted at LIB26], score nullified by penalty, clock 14:57. PENALTY LIB Offsides on JACKSON, Storey enforced 5 yards from the LIB18 to the LIB13 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
18.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the Liber 11Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+3
18.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 3 yds to the Liber 8Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+2
18.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the Liber 6Similar
Q2 13:17
4TH & 3
OPP 6
-1
19.6%
Austin Aune run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 2:0281% → 85%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
19.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to Noah Frith for 4 yds to the Liber 11Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+15
19.3%
WILLIS, Malik pass to the right incomplete intended for FRITH, Noah thrown to the LIB39. PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on WHITLOCK, Quinn enforced 15 yards to the LIB26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
19.0%
Malik Willis run for 12 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
18.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 24 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
17.9%
Malik Willis run for 10 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
17.3%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the NoTex 27Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+27
15.0%
Kevin Shaa 27 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7TD
3 plays · 65 yds · 0:5017% → 24%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
17.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
50
+8
18.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 8 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+42
23.7%
Ayo Adeyi 42 Yd Run (Aaron Beckham Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:3878% → 73%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
21.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 5 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
21.4%
Malik Willis pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
21.1%
Malik Willis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 39 fumbled, recovered by Liber Malik WillisSimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 12
OWN 39
0
21.7%
Malik Willis sacked by Dion Novil for 0 yards to the Liber 31Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 20
OWN 31
0
22.6%
Malik Willis sacked by Grayson Murphy and Gabriel Murphy for 0 yards to the Liber 22Similar
Q2 7:47
4TH & 29
OWN 22
0
26.8%
Max Morgan punt for 1 ydSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3328% → 28%
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
27.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 5 yds to the Liber 18Similar
Q2 7:47
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
27.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the Liber 18Similar
Q2 7:47
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+1
27.3%
Austin Aune run for 1 yd to the Liber 17Similar
Q2 6:14
4TH & 4
OPP 17
+35
28.4%
Aaron Beckham 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1472% → 70%
Q2 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
28.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to CJ Daniels for 6 yds to the Liber 41Similar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
27.6%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+1
27.9%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to Joshua Mack for 1 yd to the Liber 42Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+2
30.5%
Johnathan Bennett run for 2 yds to the Liber 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11FG
12 plays · 35 yds · 3:0932% → 47%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
32.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
31.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 6 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
31.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+17
30.5%
Austin Aune run for 17 yds to the Liber 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
32.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 3 yds to the Liber 15Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
32.1%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+8
31.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Bryson Jackson for 8 yds to the Liber 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
32.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the Liber 7Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
39.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 9Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
38.1%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
46.9%
Aaron Beckham 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 0:3555% → 67%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+15
44.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Targeting on GADDIE, DeShawn enforced (DeShawn Gaddie) to the Liber 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
44.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Personal Foul (Harold West) to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
40.1%
BENNETT, Johnathan pass to the left incomplete intended for LOUIS, Shedro thrown to the UNT36. PENALTY Before the snap, LIB Illegal Formation on ADAIR, Andrew enforced 5 yards from the UNT34 to the UNT39. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 15
OPP 39
0
43.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 15
OPP 39
0
43.5%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 15
OPP 39
+39
33.1%
CJ Daniels 39 Yd pass from Johnathan Bennett (Brayden Beck Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0066% → 68%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.3%
Austin Aune pass intercepted return for no gain to the NoTex 37Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
30.2%
BENNETT, Johnathan pass to the right incomplete intended for FRITH, Noah broken up by WHITLOCK, Quinn at the UNT34. PENALTY LIB Holding on GRAHAM, Jonathan enforced 10 yards from the UNT37 to the UNT47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+5
31.9%
BENNETT, Johnathan pass to the left incomplete intended for DANIELS, CJ broken up by DAVIS, John at the UNT12. PENALTY UNT Offsides on MURPHY, Gabriel enforced 5 yards from the UNT47 to the UNT42 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 10 yds · 1:0168% → 66%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+7
31.9%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to CJ Daniels for 7 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q2 1:08
2ND & 8
OPP 35
0
29.0%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 8
OPP 35
0
30.5%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:08
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+8
33.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass complete to CJ Daniels for 8 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
28.8%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
29.2%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
31.0%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 10
OPP 27
0
34.4%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:2767% → 65%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
33.0%
T.J. Green run for 9 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
31.0%
T.J. Green run for 3 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
32.0%
T.J. Green run for 1 yd to the Liber 38Similar
Q3 13:46
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
33.6%
Johnathan Bennett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+5
34.7%
Johnathan Bennett pass incomplete NORTH TEXAS Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Sideline Interference enforced (5 Yards) to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
35.3%
Aidan Alves punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17TD
15 plays · 89 yds · 6:0638% → 65%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
37.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 10Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+4
37.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+10
36.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 10 yds to the NoTex 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
38.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+11
38.0%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 11 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
38.9%
Ayo Adeyi run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+33
37.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 33 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
40.8%
Ayo Adeyi run for 8 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+5
40.8%
ADEYI, Ayo rush to the left for no gain to the LIB24 (CLARK, TreShaun;TREADWELL, Juawan). PENALTY Before the snap, LIB Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the LIB24 to the LIB19 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
40.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the Liber 18Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+7
40.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the Liber 11Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+1
39.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the Liber 10Similar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 1
OPP 10
+2
38.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the Liber 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
40.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the Liber 6Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
65.1%
Jason Pirtle 6 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1137% → 63%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
62.9%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
63.2%
Malik Willis sacked by Larry Nixon III and Dion Novil for 0 yards to the Liber 19Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
63.9%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offsides Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Dillion (Grayson Murphy) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
59.1%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the NoTex 40Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
59.2%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+9
63.0%
Malik Willis run for 9 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
60.4%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+7
60.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Brody Brumm for 7 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+4
61.8%
LOUIS, Shedro rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the UNT20 (COLVIN, Caleb). PENALTY UNT Sideline Interference enforced 4 yards from the UNT24 to the UNT20 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
37.5%
CJ Daniels 20 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19PUNT TD
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:1347% → 28%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+1
47.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 28Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
45.4%
AUNE, Austin pass up the middle complete for 31 yards to BURNS, Roderic caught at the LIB41 and advanced to the LIB41, End of Play. PENALTY UNT Holding enforced 10 yards from the UNT28 to the UNT18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+3
44.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Khatib Lyles for 3 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+72
28.3%
Demario Douglas 72 Yd Punt Return (Brayden Beck Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 3:0931% → 35%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
31.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 24Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+3
30.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ayo Adeyi for 3 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+12
29.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 12 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
32.8%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
32.4%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+16
30.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 16 yds to the Liber 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
35.7%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
35.7%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
38.6%
Austin Aune sacked by Aakil Washington for 0 yards to the Liber 42Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 7
OPP 42
0
35.4%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 39 yds, downed at the Liber 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 21TD
11 plays · 97 yds · 3:3570% → 87%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
30.3%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
30.7%
Malik Willis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+15
32.0%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 15 yds to the Liber 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+28
29.0%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 28 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
25.8%
Malik Willis sacked by Larry Nixon III and Grayson Murphy for 0 yards to the Liber 35Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 21
OWN 35
+18
29.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to T.J. Green for 18 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+7
25.8%
Malik Willis run for 7 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offsides (Grayson Murphy) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
25.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 13:58
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+6
26.2%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the NoTex 37Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+37
13.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 37 yds for a TD (Brayden Beck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22DOWNS
16 plays · 39 yds · 4:0315% → 10%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.4%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
15.2%
Austin Aune run for 8 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
15.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 10:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
11.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
12.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 9 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
14.1%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:08
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+6
13.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
50
+5
14.0%
Austin Aune run for 5 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+7
14.7%
Ayo Adeyi run for 7 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
14.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 40Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 12
OPP 40
-10
13.1%
QB Keeper AUNE, Austin rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the LIB38 (JACKSON, Storey). PENALTY UNT Holding on BLAIR, Gabe enforced 10 yards from the LIB40 to the UNT50 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 22
50
+14
12.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 14 yds to the Liber 36Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
10.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
9.5%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 2:1191% → 90%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
9.3%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Liber 39Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
8.6%
Joshua Mack run for 4 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 3
OWN 43
-10
9.1%
QB Keeper WILLIS, Malik rush to the right for a gain of 5 yards to the LIB48 (NIXON III, Larry). PENALTY LIB Holding on BOUNDS, Damian enforced 10 yards from the LIB43 to the LIB33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:42
3RD & 13
OWN 33
0
10.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete LIBERTY Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
10.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24MISSED FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 2:167% → 5%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+19
7.3%
Austin Aune pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 19 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
8.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
7.8%
Austin Aune run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
50
+16
8.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Khatib Lyles for 16 yds to the Liber 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
10.5%
AUNE, Austin pass to the left incomplete intended for BROWN, Detraveon broken up by MEGGINSON, Chris at the LIB7. PENALTY LIB Pass Interference on MEGGINSON, Chris enforced 15 yards to the LIB19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
10.6%
LIBERTY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Robert Rahimi) to the Liber 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
10.6%
Austin Aune run for 2 yds to the Liber 9Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
10.6%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 8
OPP 9
0
10.0%
Austin Aune run for no gain to the Liber 9Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 8
OPP 9
+26
5.0%
Aaron Beckham 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0092% → 93%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
7.6%
T.J. Green run for 7 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
7.1%
T.J. Green run for 5 yds to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:27
Jason Pirtle 6 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+24.3
TD · Q3 5:16
CJ Daniels 20 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Brayden Beck Kick)
-24.3
TD · Q3 3:03
Demario Douglas 72 Yd Punt Return (Brayden Beck Kick)
-16.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com