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MRSH

Marshall 49 at North Texas 21

UNT
2021 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2021 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:25 · Austin Aune pass complete to Bryson Jackson for 15 yds to the Marsh 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 105Home team on offense−39.3Score differential−27.0Pregame prior−12.9Garbage-time factor−11.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:41: Grant Wells run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +2.4 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:24: Grant Wells pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 6 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +6.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:01: Grant Wells run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +5.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:45: Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 33 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +1.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:18: Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK) — MRSH win probability +2.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 4 of 10MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 14:27MRSH 4th & 5 at MRSH 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:58UNT 4th & 26 at UNT 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:58MRSH 4th & 5 at UNT 26, tied
    Close callWent for it · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:03UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:11UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:46UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 33, down 21
    Close callPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:46MRSH 4th & 2 at UNT 6, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    84.9%−0.5
    91% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00UNT 4th & 14 at UNT 48, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:25UNT 4th & 18 at MRSH 36, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.1%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    2.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:56MRSH 4th & 6 at UNT 39, up 35
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:14UNT 4th & 14 at MRSH 31, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:09MRSH 4th & 1 at MRSH 30, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:00UNT 4th & 4 at UNT 24, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:19UNT 4th & 8 at MRSH 25, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:12UNT 4th & 9 at UNT 46, down 35
    Close callWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:12MRSH 4th & 15 at MRSH 34, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MRSH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:16MRSH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:41MRSH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:24MRSH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:01MRSH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:45MRSH Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:24UNT Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:18MRSH Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:09MRSH Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 9:49UNT Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:37UNT Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3377% → 76%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
23.5%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
23.5%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+5
23.5%
WELLS, Grant pass to the right incomplete intended for AHMED, Shadeed thrown to the MAR48. PENALTY UNT Offsides on FAULKNER, Sean-Thomas enforced 5 yards from the MAR19 to the MAR24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
23.5%
MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Shadeed Ahmed) declinedSimilar
Q1 14:27
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
23.8%
Robert Lefevre punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 1:2924% → 24%
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-15
23.8%
run for a loss of 15 yards to the NoTex 13 fumbled, recovered by NoTexSimilar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 25
OWN 13
+5
23.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 5 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 20
OWN 18
+5
23.7%
AUNE, Austin pass to the right complete for 14 yards to MCMILLAN, Zhighlil caught at the UNT27 and advanced to the UNT32 (NEAL, Eli). PENALTY Before the snap, MAR Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the UNT18 to the UNT23. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 15
OWN 23
0
23.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct ( Yards) to the NoTex 11Similar
Q1 14:27
3RD & 26
OWN 12
0
23.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 26
OWN 12
+9
24.3%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 64 yds , Willie Johnson returns for 9 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 3:4276% → 76%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
24.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+1
24.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd to the Marsh 37Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
24.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offsides ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
24.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+2
24.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the NoTex 26Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
24.3%
MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+11
24.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 11 yds to the NoTex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
24.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+5
24.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Devin Miller for 5 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
24.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 8 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1325% → 25%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
24.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
24.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 11Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 8
OWN 11
0
24.5%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:16
4TH & 8
OWN 11
+5
24.4%
MARSHALL Penalty, Delay Of Game (Shadeed Ahmed) to the NoTex 16Similar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 3
OWN 16
-5
24.5%
punt 56 yards to the MAR28 downed by TEXADA, Ridge. PENALTY Before the snap, UNT Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the UNT16 to the UNT11. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 8
OWN 11
+32
24.5%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 47 yds NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Kick Catch Interference on WILLIAMS, Dillion enforced at the deadball spot for (-15 Yards) to the NoTex 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5TD
12 plays · 43 yds · 4:2276% → 78%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
24.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 1 yd to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+2
24.2%
Sheldon Evans run for 2 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+9
24.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 9 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
24.1%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+21
24.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 21 yds to the NoTex 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
24.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 2 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
24.1%
Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd to the NoTex 7Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
24.2%
WELLS, Grant pass to the right incomplete intended for ALI, Rasheen thrown to the UNT0; QB hurried by . PENALTY UNT Roughing the Passer on MURPHY, Grayson enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the UNT7 to the UNT3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
24.2%
Grant Wells run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 8Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
24.1%
WELLS, Grant pass to the right complete for 7 yards to GAMMAGE, Corey caught at the UNT1 and advanced to the UNT1 (DAVIS JR., John), out of bounds. PENALTY MAR Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on DRISKELL, Ethan UNT Illegal Block in the Back on DAVIS, Tyreke , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
24.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 5 yds to the NoTex 3Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
21.7%
Grant Wells run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:3022% → 22%
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
22.3%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+4
22.5%
Isaiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+4
22.5%
Isaiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
22.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for no gain to the NoTex 40Similar
Q1 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
22.4%
Austin Aune run for 3 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
22.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:11
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
22.3%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
21.6%
MARSHALL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:4778% → 86%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+20
21.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 20 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
21.4%
WELLS, Grant pass to the left incomplete intended for SCARCELLE, Stone thrown to the MAR47. PENALTY UNT Pass Interference on WHITLOCK, Quinn enforced 15 yards to the MAR50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
50
+6
21.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 6 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+29
20.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Roughing the Passer on MURPHY, Grayson enforced half the distance from the goal (Grayson Murphy) to the NoTex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
20.7%
Luke Zban run for 1 yd to the NoTex 6Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
13.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 6 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:3816% → 16%
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
16.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 13:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
15.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 8 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
15.5%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 49 yds, downed at the Marsh 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9TD
12 plays · 82 yds · 5:4587% → 93%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+12
13.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 12 yds to the Marsh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+26
13.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 26 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
13.0%
Sheldon Evans run for 6 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+5
12.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 5 yds to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
12.9%
Sheldon Evans run for 2 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+17
12.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 17 yds to the NoTex 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
12.8%
Grant Wells run for 2 yds to the NoTex 12Similar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+4
12.8%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+2
13.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 2 yds to the NoTex 6Similar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+3
13.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the NoTex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
12.7%
Rasheen Ali run for no gain to the NoTex 3Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
6.9%
Grant Wells run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10Uncategorized
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:167% → 6%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
6.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 10 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
7.0%
Roderic Burns run for 8 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
6.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
7.4%
Isaiah Johnson run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 15
OWN 43
0
6.8%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+10
6.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 10 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
6.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Caleb Colvin) to the NoTex 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11TD
1 play · 33 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
4.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 33 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
5.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 75 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 2:0694% → 96%
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+50
6.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 50 yds to the NoTex 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
5.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for no gain to the NoTex 15Similar
Q2 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
5.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 3 yds to the NoTex 12Similar
Q2 4:24
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+11
6.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 11 yds to the NoTex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.9%
Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:184% → 3%
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
4.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 35Similar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+8
3.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 8 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+9
3.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 9 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
4.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
4.1%
Austin Aune sacked by Eli Neal for 0 yards to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 19
OWN 43
+5
2.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 5 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 14
OWN 48
0
2.5%
Austin Aune pass intercepted return for no gain to the Marsh 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15DOWNS
13 plays · 44 yds · 3:353% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
3.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
2.9%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 9 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
3.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
3.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
3.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+6
3.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
3.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Damon Ward Jr. for 9 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+2
3.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 2 yds to the Marsh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
3.5%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+2
3.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 26
-10
3.3%
AUNE, Austin pass to the right incomplete intended for WARD, Damon thrown to the MAR21. PENALTY UNT Holding on BRAMMER, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the MAR26 to the MAR36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OPP 36
0
3.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 18
OPP 36
+15
2.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Bryson Jackson for 15 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 40 yds · 2:2998% → 98%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
2.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 5 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+15
2.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 15 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+16
2.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 16 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
2.0%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
2.0%
Grant Wells pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+4
2.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 4 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
2.1%
Robert Lefevre punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17DOWNS
13 plays · 59 yds · 3:422% → 1%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
1.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 9 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+6
1.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 6 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
1.6%
Ayo Adeyi run for 8 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+17
1.5%
Ayo Adeyi run for 17 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
1.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
1.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+6
1.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the Marsh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
1.8%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-10
1.8%
AUNE, Austin pass to the right incomplete intended for JACKSON, Bryson thrown to the MAR0. PENALTY UNT Holding on BRAMMER, Jacob enforced 10 yards from the MAR27 to the MAR37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 20
OPP 37
-5
1.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Gabe Blair) to the Marsh 42Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 25
OPP 42
+3
1.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 3 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 22
OPP 39
+8
1.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 8 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 14
OPP 31
+10
1.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Zhighlil McMillan for 10 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0599% → 99%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
1.1%
Rasheen Ali run for 5 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
1.1%
Grant Wells pass complete to Stone Scarcelle for 3 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+1
0.8%
Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd to the Marsh 30Similar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 1
OWN 30
-2
0.9%
Robert Lefevre punt for 50 yds , Roderic Burns returns for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:091% → 1%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
0.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 18Similar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
0.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q3 3:09
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
0.9%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
0.6%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 48 yds, downed at the Marsh 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 20FUMBLE
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:3599% → 99%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
0.7%
Rasheen Ali run for 6 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 4
OWN 34
-5
0.7%
MARSHALL Penalty, Illegal Snap on MOLLETTE, Alex enforced (Alex Mollette) to the Marsh 29Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
0.7%
Grant Wells sacked for 0 yards to the Marsh 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · -14 yds · 1:061% → 0%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
0.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 4 yds to the Marsh 23Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-2
0.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 25Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
0.5%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 8
OPP 25
0
0.4%
Austin Aune sacked by TJ Johnson for 0 yards to the Marsh 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 22INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1499% → 99%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.6%
Rasheen Ali run for no gain to the Marsh 41Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
0.6%
Grant Wells pass intercepted for a 1ST down return for no gain to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:340% → 0%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
0.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 36Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
0.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Khatib Lyles for 9 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
0.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 1 yd to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 9
OWN 46
0
0.4%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
0.4%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
0.3%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 24TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 1:03100% → 100%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+41
0.5%
Rasheen Ali run for 41 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
0.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the NoTex 3Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
0.4%
Grant Wells run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
0.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds to the NoTex 18Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+3
0.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
0.3%
Jace Ruder run for 3 yds to the NoTex 24Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+19
0.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 19 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
0.3%
Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+51
0.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 51 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 26PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 4:37100% → 100%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.3%
Ethan Payne run for 1 yd to the Marsh 26Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
0.3%
Ethan Payne run for 3 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
0.3%
Luke Zban run for 10 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
0.3%
Ethan Payne run for no gain to the Marsh 39Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+4
0.3%
Ethan Payne run for 4 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 6
OWN 43
-10
0.3%
EVANS, Sheldon rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the MAR46 (DAVIS, KD). PENALTY MAR Holding on DRISKELL, Ethan enforced 10 yards from the MAR43 to the MAR33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+1
0.3%
Luke Zban run for 1 yd to the Marsh 34Similar
Q4 5:12
4TH & 15
OWN 34
+16
0.2%
Robert Lefevre punt for 40 yds , Roderic Burns returns for 16 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27TD
7 plays · 58 yds · 2:350% → 0%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
0.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for no gain to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
0.1%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+13
0.1%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Khatib Lyles for 13 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
0.1%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 5 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+16
0.1%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 16 yds to the Marsh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
0.2%
Ayo Adeyi run for 6 yds to the Marsh 14Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+14
0.1%
Ayo Adeyi run for 14 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
0.1%
Luke Zban run for 4 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+3
0.1%
Luke Zban run for 3 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q4 0:47
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+5
0.1%
Ethan Payne run for 5 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:24
Grant Wells pass complete to Jayden Harrison for 6 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)
-6.8
TD · Q2 7:01
Grant Wells run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)
-5.7
TD · Q1 3:41
Grant Wells run for 3 yds for a TD, (Shane Ciucci KICK)
-2.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com