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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 13 at Liberty 41

LIB
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:58 · Kyle Ulbrich punt for 41 yds , Demario Douglas returns for no gain to the Liber 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior+39.1Home team on offense+0.8Score differential+0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3Garbage-time factor−0.1Blowout margin+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:13: Malik Willis pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 5 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK) — LIB win probability +1.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:55: T.J. Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK) — LIB win probability +3.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:56: Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 6 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +4.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:07: Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 31 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MTSU win probability +3.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:25: Joshua Mack 2 Yd Run (Malik Willis Pass to Brody Brumm for Two-Point Conversion) — LIB win probability +5.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MTSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 12:18MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:58MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:40LIB 4th & 4 at LIB 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:35MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:26MTSU 4th & 10 at LIB 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:40LIB 4th & 13 at MTSU 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    88.8%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:26LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 34, up 17
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:29MTSU 4th & 4 at LIB 29, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−0.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:07MTSU 4th & 10 at LIB 31, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:43MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 48, down 23
    Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:40LIB 4th & 29 at LIB 17, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:48MTSU 4th & 11 at MTSU 48, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:21MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 35, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:37LIB 4th & 11 at LIB 30, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:59LIB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:13LIB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:55LIB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:56MTSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:07MTSU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:25LIB Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    96.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:428% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
92.3%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
92.3%
Chase Cunningham run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
92.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
92.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
92.3%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
91.6%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 2TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 1:1992% → 92%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
91.8%
PENALTY LIB False Start (Schultz,Tristan) 5 yards from MTS45 to MTS50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 15
50
+3
91.7%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+12
91.7%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 12 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
91.9%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 35 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:018% → 9%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
91.7%
Frank Peasant run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
91.7%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+10
91.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to CJ Windham for 10 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
91.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 9 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
91.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 1
OWN 48
-10
91.6%
Mobley,Chaton rush for 3 yards gain to the LIB49 (James,Elijah; Chibueze,Henry) PENALTY MTS Holding (Palmer,Jordan) 10 yards from MTS48 to MTS38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 11
OWN 38
+9
91.7%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 9 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
91.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 41 yds , Demario Douglas returns for no gain to the Liber 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 4INT
4 plays · 12 yds · 0:3992% → 91%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+7
91.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 7 yds to the Liber 19Similar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 3
OWN 19
+5
91.5%
Malik Willis pass complete to Kevin Shaa for 5 yds to the Liber 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
91.3%
Malik Willis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
90.9%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Illegal Formation (Richard Kinley) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:3291% → 91%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
91.3%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 16Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+8
91.2%
Malik Willis run for 8 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+5
91.2%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 5 yds to the Liber 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
92.0%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 30Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+7
91.9%
Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+2
92.0%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 2 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q1 3:40
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
91.4%
Max Morgan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaylin Lane at the MTnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 13 yds · 1:0510% → 10%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
90.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 3 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
90.4%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 7
OWN 24
0
90.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Izaiah GathingsSimilar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+26
90.5%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 48 yds , Demario Douglas returns for 26 yds to the Liber 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 8TD
6 plays · 84 yds · 2:2291% → 93%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+22
91.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to CJ Daniels for 22 yds to the Liber 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
91.5%
Malik Willis run for 5 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+41
91.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 41 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
91.9%
Shedro Louis run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+6
91.9%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.3%
Malik Willis pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 5 yds for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 2:349% → 9%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.5%
DJ England-Chisolm run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
91.4%
PENALTY MTS False Start (Marshall,Jimmy) 5 yards from MTS30 to MTS25. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
91.6%
Chase Cunningham run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
91.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
91.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 4 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+11
91.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 11 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
91.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Chaton Mobley for no gain to the Liber 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
91.2%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Chaton MobleySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
91.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q2 12:26
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
91.2%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 10TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:3194% → 97%
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.8%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to T.J. GreenSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
93.7%
Malik Willis pass complete to T.J. Green for 11 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
93.8%
T.J. Green run for 7 yds to the Liber 38Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+2
94.0%
Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+8
93.8%
Malik Willis run for 8 yds to the Liber 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
94.1%
Malik Willis run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+15
94.1%
T.J. Green run for 15 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
94.1%
Malik Willis pass complete to Jerome Jackson for 3 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+7
94.0%
T.J. Green run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
94.0%
Malik Willis run for 17 yds to the MTnSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.9%
T.J. Green run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Beck KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 3:515% → 9%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
95.5%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+37
95.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 37 yds to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
95.0%
Brad Anderson run for 4 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 6
OPP 42
0
95.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Brad AndersonSimilar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+19
95.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 19 yds to the Liber 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
94.8%
Brad Anderson run for 3 yds to the Liber 20Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+4
94.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 4 yds to the Liber 16Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+10
95.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 10 yds to the Liber 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 6 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 12FG
12 plays · 74 yds · 2:1095% → 95%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
94.8%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 7
0
94.8%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+14
94.6%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 14 yds to the Liber 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+49
94.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to Demario Douglas for 49 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
94.7%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Johnny HuntleySimilar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+14
94.7%
Malik Willis run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
94.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Kevin ShaaSimilar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-3
94.5%
Malik Willis sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 19Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 13
OPP 19
0
93.9%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q2 0:40
4TH & 13
OPP 19
+37
94.8%
Brayden Beck 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:3395% → 93%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
95.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Johnny HuntleySimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
95.4%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-10
95.2%
LIBERTY Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 16
OPP 41
-7
92.7%
Malik Willis sacked by Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2894% → 93%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
93.8%
Joshua Mack run for 6 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+1
93.9%
Joshua Mack run for 1 yd to the Liber 34Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
93.7%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to Demario DouglasSimilar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
93.3%
Max Morgan punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15SF
3 plays · -12 yds · 1:216% → 5%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
93.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 11
OWN 11
-3
93.9%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Ahmad Walker for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 14
OWN 8
0
95.3%
Henry Chibueze SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1197% → 97%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
50
0
96.7%
Malik Willis pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
50
0
96.7%
Malik Willis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:255% → 5%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-9
94.7%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Tre'Shaun Clark for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 19
OWN 34
+16
95.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 16 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 3
50
+15
94.5%
Cunningham,Chase pass incomplete to Ali,Yusuf PENALTY LIB Roughing The Passer (Clark,TreShaun) 15 yards from LIB50 to LIB35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
94.1%
Brad Anderson run for no gain to the Liber 35Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
94.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+6
94.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 6 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q3 9:29
4TH & 4
OPP 29
0
94.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Izaiah GathingsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
96.5%
Malik Willis pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:077% → 9%
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
93.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
93.4%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Chaton Mobley for no gain to the Liber 31Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
94.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 10
OPP 31
+31
90.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 31 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:3392% → 99%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
91.7%
Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+3
92.2%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+26
92.2%
Joshua Mack run for 26 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
92.3%
Malik Willis run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+2
92.3%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+16
92.0%
Malik Willis run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
92.3%
Shedro Louis run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.8%
Joshua Mack 2 Yd Run (Malik Willis Pass to Brody Brumm for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:312% → 1%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
98.0%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 8 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+3
98.0%
Martell Pettaway run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
98.0%
Martell Pettaway run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+8
98.2%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 8 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q3 3:14
3RD & 6
OWN 48
0
98.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q3 0:43
4TH & 6
OWN 48
+8
98.6%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 19 , Demario Douglas returns for 8 yds to the Liber 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · -2 yds · 4:2099% → 100%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
99.4%
Shedro Louis run for 6 yds to the Liber 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+1
99.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for 1 yd to the Liber 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+10
99.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 10 yds to the Liber 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.4%
Shedro Louis run for 3 yds to the Liber 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
99.4%
Malik Willis pass complete to Shedro Louis for no gain to the Liber 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 33
-10
99.4%
Willis,Malik rush for 24 yards gain to the MTS43 (Hartley,Raquon), out of bounds PENALTY LIB Holding (Louis,Shedro) 10 yards from LIB33 to LIB23. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 23
OWN 23
-6
99.4%
Malik Willis sacked by Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 6 yards to the Liber 17Similar
Q4 10:40
4TH & 29
OWN 17
+9
99.6%
Max Morgan punt for 56 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 9 yds to the MTnSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:521% → 1%
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
99.0%
Chase Cunningham run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+23
98.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to CJ Windham for 23 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
98.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to CJ Windham for 1 yd to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 10:40
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
99.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Chaton MobleySimilar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
99.1%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Chaton MobleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 4:31100% → 100%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
99.7%
Joshua Mack run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+2
99.7%
Malik Willis run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
99.7%
Joshua Mack run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
99.7%
Malik Willis run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+25
99.7%
Joshua Mack run for 25 yds to the MTnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
99.7%
Joshua Mack run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q4 4:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Malik Willis 1 Yd Run (Brayden Beck Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:560% → 0%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 10 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q4 4:17
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Izaiah GathingsSimilar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:44100% → 100%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
100.0%
Frank Boyd run for 1 yd to the Liber 32Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+3
100.0%
Russian Williams run for 3 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Tyron Staples run for no gain to the Liber 35Similar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 6
OWN 35
-5
100.0%
PENALTY LIB Delay Of Game 5 yards from LIB35 to LIB30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 11
OWN 30
+15
100.0%
Max Morgan punt for 62 yds , Jaylin Lane returns for 15 yds to the MTnSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:370% → 0%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
100.0%
Mike DiLiello run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 4Similar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 8
OWN 4
0
100.0%
PENALTY LIB UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting MTS UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+5
100.0%
Martell Pettaway run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:25
Joshua Mack 2 Yd Run (Malik Willis Pass to Brody Brumm for Two-Point Conversion)
+5
TD · Q2 2:56
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 6 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-4.2
TD · Q3 8:07
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 31 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-3.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com