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UTSA

UTSA 52 at Western Kentucky 46

WKU
2021 · Week 6 · Oct 9, 2021 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:53 · John Haggerty III punt for 55 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for no gain to the TexSA 24 Sheldon Jones fumbled, recovered by WKent Antwon Kincade
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense−3.5Garbage-time factor−1.2Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0Pregame prior−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:38: Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 18 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +16.9 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:06: Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 3 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +14.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:50: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 40 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — WKU win probability +17.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 8:04: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 20 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WKU win probability +32.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:39: Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 43 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +25.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6UTSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:11WKU 4th & 2 at UTSA 16, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 59.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−1.1
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:47UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 43, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.1%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:00WKU 4th & 3 at UTSA 37, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.3%−2.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q3 14:53WKU 4th & 15 at WKU 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−2.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:46UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.4%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 10:30WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 28, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:06UTSA 4th & 2 at WKU 3, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.7%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%−2.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    39.9%−15.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:58WKU 4th & 6 at UTSA 49, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    30.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:18UTSA 4th & 5 at WKU 46, up 11
    Close callPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    71.7%−2.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:01UTSA 4th & 13 at WKU 18, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−5.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.7%
    79% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−17.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:22WKU 4th & 4 at UTSA 9, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.5
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−7.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:27UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 38, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:13UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:03UTSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:49WKU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:22WKU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:25UTSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:47WKU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:40UTSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:46WKU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 10:38UTSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 6:06UTSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 0:50WKU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    39.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:04WKU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    46.2%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    47.4%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 6:39UTSA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:4753% → 53%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+40
47.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 40 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
47.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 30 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2FG
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:5647% → 48%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+33
47.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 33 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
47.3%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the TexSA 36Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+8
47.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 8 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+4
47.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 4 yds to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
47.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+3
47.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 2
OPP 16
0
47.3%
Noah Whittington run for no gain to the TexSA 16Similar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+34
47.8%
Brayden Narveson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:0853% → 57%
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
47.4%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
47.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 5 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
47.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 8 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
47.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 10:11
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
47.2%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
47.2%
Frank Harris run for 8 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+4
47.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
47.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 9 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+1
46.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
47.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:11
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+13
47.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 13 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
46.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the WKent 15Similar
Q1 5:03
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
43.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 15 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4TD
15 plays · 58 yds · 4:0445% → 50%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
45.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 12 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
45.5%
Noah Whittington run for 9 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 1
OPP 37
0
45.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
44.5%
Adam Cofield run for 2 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
45.0%
Adam Cofield run for 8 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 2
OPP 27
0
45.1%
Bailey Zappe run for no gain to the TexSA 27Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+3
44.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 3 yds to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
43.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Noah Whittington for 4 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+3
43.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for 3 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+14
43.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 14 yds to the TexSA 3 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Defensive offside (Frank Harris) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
43.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Joey Beljan, broken up by Brandon BrownSimilar
Q1 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
49.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 3 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4953% → 52%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
47.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 4 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
47.3%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+1
48.1%
Lucas Dean punt for 45 yds , Jerreth Sterns returns for 1 yd to the WKent 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 3:2647% → 55%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
47.4%
Noah Whittington run for 9 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
48.5%
Bailey Zappe run for 3 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
48.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
50
+7
49.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 7 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+9
49.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 9 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
49.9%
Adam Cofield run for 6 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+8
49.9%
Adam Cofield run for 8 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
49.9%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to STERNS, JERR (MAYFIELD, Corey), PENALTY UTSA holding 10 yards to the UTSA10, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
55.0%
Adam Cofield run for 10 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5747% → 55%
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+13
52.1%
B.J. Daniels run for 13 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
51.5%
B.J. Daniels run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 5
50
+10
51.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 10 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
51.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 15 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
50.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the WKent 23Similar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
50.1%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 8:25
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+23
44.8%
Joshua Cephus pass complete to Frank Harris for 23 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 3:3247% → 59%
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
46.9%
Noah Whittington run for 10 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
47.1%
Noah Whittington run for 3 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+5
47.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 5 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+6
48.0%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
49.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
47.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 11 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
49.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 4 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+10
49.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 10 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
58.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 33 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9INT
11 plays · 49 yds · 0:0045% → 49%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
55.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 13 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
53.7%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
54.3%
Frank Harris run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 43 Frank Harris fumbled, forced by DeAngelo Malone, recovered by TexSA Frank Harris , return for 5 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
54.2%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-KelloggSimilar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+8
56.0%
Frank Harris run for 8 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
52.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 9 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+5
52.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
51.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 9 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 1
OPP 26
-5
51.4%
Frank Harris pass intercepted A.J. Brathwaite Jr. return for 5 yds to the WKent 32 A.J. Brathwaite Jr. fumbled, forced by Frank Harris, recovered by TexSA Zakhari FranklinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:3249% → 61%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
51.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 2 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+19
51.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 19 yds to the WKent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
39.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 11 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11MISSED FG
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:4046% → 47%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
46.0%
Adam Cofield run for 9 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-7
45.5%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Brandon Matterson and Trumane Bell II for a loss of 7 yards to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+10
42.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 10 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
44.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 19 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
47.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns, broken up by Charles WileySimilar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
47.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Daewood DavisSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+7
45.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 7 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+55
46.5%
Brayden Narveson 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
45.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 5 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
45.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns, broken up by Clarence HicksSimilar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-10
44.7%
WHITTINGTON, N. rush for 22 yards to the UTSA48 (SAM, Jahmal), PENALTY WKU holding 10 yards to the WKU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
43.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal touching (Mitchell Tinsley) to the WKent 20Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
43.1%
John Haggerty III punt for 55 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for no gain to the TexSA 24 Sheldon Jones fumbled, recovered by WKent Antwon KincadeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:5251% → 61%
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
50.6%
Bailey Zappe run for no gain to the TexSA 24Similar
Q3 13:38
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
50.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh SternsSimilar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+24
61.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 24 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0842% → 61%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
57.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
56.8%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q3 12:46
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
58.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 5 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 12:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
58.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+44
55.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 44 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
39.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 18 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
44.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley, broken up by Ken RobinsonSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
44.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh SternsSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
42.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns, broken up by Jahmal SamSimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+38
42.3%
John Haggerty III punt for 67 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 38 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 3:5559% → 74%
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
41.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 6 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+16
40.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 16 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
39.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 12 yds to the WKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
38.9%
HARRIS, Frank pass incomplete to FRANKLIN, Z. (EDWARDS, M.), PENALTY WKU personal foul (IGNONT, W.) 12 yards to the WKU11, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
38.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the WKent 6Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+3
38.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the WKent 3Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 2
OPP 3
0
40.3%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the WKent 3Similar
Q3 6:06
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+3
26.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 3 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
26.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 9 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+2
27.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 2 yds to the WKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
26.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+14
26.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for 14 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
28.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to C.J. Jones for 5 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 5
OPP 48
-5
29.3%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Quantavious Leslie) to the WKent 47Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
28.3%
Bailey Zappe run for 1 yd to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+3
27.1%
Adam Cofield run for 3 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
26.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
21.9%
Joshua Cephus run for 5 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q3 2:18
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
21.7%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua Cephus, broken up by Antwon KincadeSimilar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 5
OPP 46
0
22.1%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Leroy Watson, broken up by Miguel EdwardsSimilar
Q3 2:18
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
23.8%
Lucas Dean punt for 41 yds, downed at the WKent 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 95 yds · 0:3322% → 43%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+55
22.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 55 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
25.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+40
42.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 40 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 5:4967% → 81%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
32.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 5 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
32.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
31.7%
HARRIS, Frank pass incomplete to FRANKLIN, Z., PENALTY WKU pass interference (EDWARDS, M.) 15 yards to the WKU49, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
29.6%
Frank Harris run for 8 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-5
29.2%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Ahofitu Maka) to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+2
29.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+15
30.2%
HARRIS, Frank pass incomplete to CEPHUS, Joshua, PENALTY WKU pass interference (KINCADE, A.) 15 yards to the WKU29, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
28.0%
Frank Harris run for 14 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
28.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the WKent 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
28.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for no gain to the WKent 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 12
-10
29.5%
HARRIS, Frank pass complete to CLARK, D. for 6 yards to the WKU6 (STAPLES, M.;HUNTER, J.), PENALTY UTSA holding 10 yards to the WKU22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:42
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+4
26.8%
Frank Harris run for 4 yds to the WKent 18Similar
Q4 10:01
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+35
19.1%
Hunter Duplessis 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5722% → 60%
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
22.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 4 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
22.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
23.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
23.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell TinsleySimilar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+21
23.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 21 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
27.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 23 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
59.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 20 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2559% → 87%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
41.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+16
41.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 16 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
38.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 14 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
12.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 43 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 2:1716% → 31%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
16.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SternsSimilar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+23
15.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 23 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
18.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Daewood DavisSimilar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
18.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 12 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
19.9%
Noah Whittington run for 11 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
22.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 14 yds to the TexSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
22.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Dakota Thomas, broken up by Ken RobinsonSimilar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-5
22.4%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Mason Brooks) to the TexSA 20Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+11
20.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 11 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
20.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Daewood Davis, broken up by Brandon BrownSimilar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+27
31.1%
Brayden Narveson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:5583% → 86%
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
16.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 11 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
16.0%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
12.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua Cephus, broken up by Antwon KincadeSimilar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
13.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for no gain to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
13.8%
Lucas Dean punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25INT
11 plays · 55 yds · 0:0024% → 25%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
23.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 12 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
26.3%
Adam Cofield run for 7 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+12
28.0%
Adam Cofield run for 12 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
29.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh SternsSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
28.6%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+4
29.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 4 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+24
31.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 24 yds to the TexSA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-15
31.8%
ZAPPE, B. pass complete to STERNS, JERR for 4 yards to the UTSA1 (FEASTER, Denzel;WISDOM, Rashad), PENALTY WKU illegal block 15 yards to the UTSA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 20
0
29.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns, broken up by Brandon BrownSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 20
+5
28.7%
Bailey Zappe run for 5 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 3:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
25.2%
Bailey Zappe pass intercepted Clarence Hicks return for no gain to the TexSA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0294% → 94%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-1
6.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 2Similar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 11
OWN 2
-1
6.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:04
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 20 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+32.8
TD · Q4 6:39
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 43 yds for a TD (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
-25.3
TD · Q3 0:50
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 40 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+17
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com