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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadCLT aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreCLT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:39 · James McCourt 50 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:31: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 22 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +5.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:46: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 27 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +15.0 pts (now 44%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:52: Chase Brown run for 31 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +13.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
- FG · Q3 0:12: Jonathan Cruz 39 yd FG MISSED — CLT win probability +8.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- FG · Q4 10:39: James McCourt 50 yd FG MISSED — ILL win probability +8.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CLT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 7:28ILL 4th & 7 at CLT 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.0% before the snapGo for it74.9%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call75.0%87% to makePunt74.1%−0.9average punt
- Q2 13:46ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 41, down 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snapGo for it69.6%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call70.0%average punt
- Q2 8:32CLT 4th & 13 at CLT 26, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snapGo for it30.3%−1.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.0%average punt
- Q2 8:32ILL 4th & 2 at CLT 25, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call68.4%57% to convertField goal67.6%−0.766% to makePunt63.3%−5.1average punt
- Q3 11:44CLT 4th & 12 at ILL 46, up 4Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snapGo for it40.3%−1.823% to convertField goal39.6%−2.423% to makePuntTheir call42.0%average punt
- Q3 0:12CLT 4th & 12 at ILL 12, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.0% before the snapGo for it26.6%−2.919% to convertField goalTheir call29.5%86% to makePunt18.0%−11.6average punt
- Q4 10:39ILL 4th & 14 at CLT 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.1% before the snapGo for it53.6%−4.319% to convertField goalTheir call57.9%51% to makePunt55.0%−2.9average punt
- Q4 1:20ILL 4th & 3 at CLT 38, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call89.4%53% to convertField goal85.6%−3.738% to makePunt83.7%−5.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 1:31CLT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call29.0%97% to makeGo for two28.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:52ILL Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.5%97% to makeGo for two72.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:46CLT Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call38.9%97% to makeGo for two38.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:52ILL Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.6%97% to makeGo for two70.5%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartILLDrive 1FG18 plays · 64 yds · 7:3277% → 76%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+9
77.0%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Casey Washington for 9 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2TD11 plays · 75 yds · 5:5724% → 30%
Q1 7:28
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
75.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Keith Pearson for 6 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
75.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 9 yds to the Charl 47Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
75.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 4 yds to the Illin 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
75.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Tarique Barnes) to the Illin 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
70.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 22 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 16 yds · 2:4572% → 70%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+2
70.8%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Luke Ford for 2 yds to the Illin 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4FUMBLE1 play · 12 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
70.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 12 yds Grant DuBose fumbled, forced by Sydney Brown, recovered by Illin Kerby JosephSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5FUMBLE7 plays · 20 yds · 3:0572% → 71%
Q2 12:00
3RD & 16
OPP 20
+6
69.9%
Brandon Peters run for 1 yd to the Charl 19 CHARLOTTE Penalty, Sideline Inteference (Jonathan Alexander) to the Charl 9Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 9
+2
70.6%
Joshua McCray run for 2 yds to the Charl 7 Joshua McCray fumbled, forced by Justin Whisenhunt, recovered by Charl Joshua BaileySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5831% → 31%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
68.7%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Personal Foul (Kerby Joseph) to the Charl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-5
68.9%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Seth Coleman for a loss of 5 yards to the Charl 26Similar
Q2 8:32
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
68.7%
Bailey Rice punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 7TD12 plays · 65 yds · 5:4068% → 74%
Q2 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+17
67.6%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Chase Brown for 17 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+7
69.7%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 7 yds to the Charl 39Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+8
69.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Luke Ford for 8 yds to the Charl 25Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
74.2%
Brandon Peters pass complete to Daniel Barker for 10 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8TD7 plays · 66 yds · 2:0628% → 44%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
72.1%
Chris Reynolds run for 10 yds to the Charl 35 CHARLOTTE Penalty, Personal Foul (Shadrick Byrd) to the Charl 16Similar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+13
72.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 13 yds to the Charl 29Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+34
71.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 34 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
56.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 27 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 9END OF HALF3 plays · -2 yds · 0:4662% → 61%
CLTDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 3:1640% → 41%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
60.0%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 7 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
58.2%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 17 yds to the Illin 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
57.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 2 yds to the Illin 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 11TD10 plays · 94 yds · 4:5259% → 76%
CLTDrive 12FG16 plays · 63 yds · 6:4030% → 40%
Q3 6:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
68.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Khalan Tolson) to the Charl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
66.8%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 7 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+7
67.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 7 yds to the Illin 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13TD1 play · 80 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
64.4%
Chase Brown run for 80 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK) (James McCourt KICK) (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14INT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:5340% → 40%
ILLDrive 15FG5 plays · -4 yds · 2:2871% → 75%
CLTDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 4 yds · 3:5629% → 26%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
71.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 9 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-10
67.0%
Byrd,Shadrick rush for 6 yards gain to the ILL32 (Brown,Sydney) PENALTY CLT Holding (Kelly,Hunter) 10 yards from ILL38 to ILL48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 16
OPP 48
-8
70.3%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Owen Carney Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Charl 44Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 24
OWN 44
-8
72.3%
Chris Reynolds sacked by Owen Carney Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Charl 36Similar
Q4 6:43
4TH & 32
OWN 36
0
73.8%
Bailey Rice punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 17END OF 4TH QUARTER15 plays · 51 yds · 6:4376% → 97%
Q4 1:20
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+18
91.2%
Brandon Peters run for 8 yds to the Charl 30 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive Holding (Markees Watts) to the Charl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:46
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 27 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
-15
TD · Q3 6:52
Chase Brown run for 31 yds for a TD (James McCourt KICK)
+13.2
FG · Q4 10:39
James McCourt 50 yd FG MISSED
+8.5