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IU

Indiana 33 at Western Kentucky 31

WKU
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadIU aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameTD+30.6WKU 46.5%Bailey Zappe pass complete to MalachiCorley for 19 yds for a TD (BraydenNarveson KICK)AWAY 33 - HOME 31 · Q4 2:43
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:43 · Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 19 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 189Pregame prior−1.5Home team on offense−1.0Score differential−2.0Garbage-time factor−5.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:55: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 25 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +10.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 13:13: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 13 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +12.6 pts (now 39%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:53: Brayden Narveson 34 yd FG GOOD — WKU win probability +7.0 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  4. TD · Q4 4:27: Stephen Carr run for 1 yd for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK) — IU win probability +20.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: IU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:43: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 19 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +30.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6IU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 10:15WKU 4th & 15 at WKU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:43IU 4th & 2 at WKU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    70.0%−1.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:49IU 4th & 22 at WKU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    67.1%−2.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:49WKU 4th & 1 at IU 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    26.4%−1.0
    70% to make
    Punt
    23.5%−3.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:42IU 4th & 7 at WKU 20, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 9:10IU 4th & 9 at WKU 31, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    58.9%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:53WKU 4th & 10 at IU 16, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−2.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−11.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:47IU 4th & 9 at WKU 42, up 2
    Close callPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    60.4%−1.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:20WKU 4th & 13 at WKU 17, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−5.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00IU 4th & 13 at IU 46, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−4.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:42WKU 4th & 1 at IU 48, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 6.0 ptsPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%−6.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:27WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 28, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4IU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 10:15IU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:02IU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:27WKU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:55WKU Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:13WKU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:27IU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:43WKU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.2 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.2%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
IUDrive 1TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 4:4580% → 79%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
20.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+3
20.1%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+10
20.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 10 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
20.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 19 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
20.1%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+8
20.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 8 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
20.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for 16 yds to the WKent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
20.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to D.J. Matthews Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+4
20.1%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the WKent 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+15
20.1%
Stephen Carr run for 15 yds to the WKent 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.8%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
21.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
21.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
21.1%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 20Similar
Q1 10:15
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
21.1%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:15
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
21.0%
John Haggerty III punt for 61 yds , D.J. Matthews Jr. returns for no gain to the Ind 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 4:5079% → 81%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
21.3%
David Ellis run for 8 yds to the Ind 27Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+6
21.1%
Stephen Carr run for 6 yds to the Ind 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+26
21.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 26 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
20.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Javon Swinton for 14 yds to the WKent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
20.9%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 8 yds to the WKent 19Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+4
20.9%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
20.9%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the WKent 14Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+9
20.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Matt Bjorson for 9 yds to the WKent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
20.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q1 9:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
20.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jacolby Hewitt for 4 yds to the WKent 1Similar
Q1 5:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
19.1%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4TD
16 plays · 77 yds · 5:2920% → 25%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
20.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 7 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+13
20.3%
Noah Whittington run for 13 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
20.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Noah Whittington for 4 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+6
20.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 6 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
20.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 4 yds to the Ind 43Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+9
20.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 9 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
20.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 2 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+6
20.9%
Adam Cofield run for 6 yds to the Ind 26Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+3
20.7%
Adam Cofield run for 3 yds to the Ind 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
20.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+10
20.9%
Noah Whittington run for 10 yds to the Ind 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
20.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 6 yds to the Ind 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+2
20.6%
Adam Cofield run for 2 yds to the Ind 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+4
20.3%
Adam Cofield run for 4 yds to the Ind 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.2%
Adam Cofield run for 1 yd for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 5FG
18 plays · 46 yds · 4:3477% → 77%
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
23.0%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 3 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
22.8%
Penix, Michael pass incomplete to Marshall, Miles (BISHOP, B.), PENALTY WKU pass interference (BISHOP, B.) 6 yards to the IND34, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
22.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 1 yd to the Ind 35Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
22.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Javon SwintonSimilar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+17
23.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 17 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
22.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
22.0%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 3 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+5
22.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to A.J. Barner for 5 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q2 11:43
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+7
22.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 7 yds to the WKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+16
21.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jacolby Hewitt for 16 yds to the WKent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
21.6%
INDIANA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 22Similar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 15
OPP 22
0
21.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 15
OPP 22
+4
21.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 4 yds to the WKent 18Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 11
OPP 18
-16
22.0%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by A.J. Brathwaite Jr. for a loss of 16 yards to the WKent 34 INDIANA Penalty, intentional grounding (Michael Penix Jr.) to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 27
OPP 34
+5
23.8%
Campbell, C. field goal attempt from 51 MISSED - short,, clock 09:53, PENALTY WKU offside defense (OLIVER, K.) 5 yards to the WKU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 22
OPP 29
+46
23.0%
Charles Campbell 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 41 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+33
21.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 33 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
23.4%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ind 37Similar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+5
22.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 5 yds to the Ind 32Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+9
23.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 9 yds to the Ind 23Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
22.8%
Adam Cofield run for no gain to the Ind 23Similar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 1
OPP 23
-1
22.2%
Kye Robichaux run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 7FG
15 plays · 56 yds · 4:5579% → 82%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
21.2%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+10
20.7%
Stephen Carr run for 10 yds to the Ind 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
20.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
20.4%
Michael Penix Jr. run for 7 yds to the Ind 45Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+21
20.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 6 yds to the WESTERNKY 49 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, personal foul (A.J. Brathwaite Jr.) to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
19.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stephen Carr for 10 yds to the WKent 24 INDIANA Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
19.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty Fryfogle, broken up by Kahlef HailassieSimilar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
20.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Stephen Carr for 6 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+5
19.8%
Stephen Carr run for 5 yds to the WKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-4
19.5%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by DeAngelo Malone and Demetrius Cain for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 14
OPP 27
+7
19.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 7 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
18.9%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Tim Baldwin Jr.Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
17.8%
Charles Campbell 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 1:4219% → 28%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
18.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 8 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
19.5%
Noah Whittington run for 4 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
19.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 24 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
19.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 8 yds to the Ind 28Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+12
20.7%
Noah Whittington run for 12 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-9
20.6%
Jerreth Sterns sacked by Micah McFadden for a loss of 9 yards to the Ind 25Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 19
OPP 25
+25
28.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 25 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 9FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 0:5576% → 82%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
24.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 16 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
22.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 18 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
21.5%
Penix, Michael pass incomplete to Fryfogle, Ty (MALONE, D.), PENALTY WKU offside defense (JONES, J.) 5 yards to the WKU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 5
OPP 36
0
21.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
21.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Stephen CarrSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+21
21.6%
Stephen Carr run for 21 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
20.8%
Penix, Michael pass incomplete to Marshall, Miles, PENALTY WKU holding (HAILASSIE, K.) 8 yards to the WKU7, 1ST DOWN IND, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
20.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
20.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
18.5%
Charles Campbell 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:4023% → 39%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
23.1%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+39
23.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 39 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
26.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 8 yds to the Ind 24Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+11
26.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 11 yds to the Ind 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
39.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dalvin Smith for 13 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 11FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:0368% → 73%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
32.2%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the Ind 29Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
31.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 12 yds to the Ind 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
30.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to A.J. Barner for 6 yds to the Ind 47Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+6
30.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Camron Buckley for 6 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
29.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 15 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
28.9%
Michael Penix Jr. sacked by DeAngelo Malone for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 37Similar
Q3 13:13
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+11
30.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 11 yds to the WKent 26Similar
Q3 13:13
3RD & 4
OPP 26
0
29.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Miles MarshallSimilar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 4
OPP 26
-5
31.9%
INDIANA Penalty, delay of game (Raheem Layne II) to the WKent 31Similar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+48
26.9%
Charles Campbell 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 3:1729% → 41%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh SternsSimilar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+11
28.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 11 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
30.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns, broken up by Devon MatthewsSimilar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+16
29.7%
Jerreth Sterns run for 16 yds to the Ind 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
32.1%
Adam Cofield run for 11 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
33.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 16 yds to the Ind 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
35.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dakota Thomas for 3 yds to the Ind 13Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 7
OPP 13
0
35.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 7
OPP 13
-3
34.0%
Noah Whittington run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 16Similar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
41.0%
Brayden Narveson 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
35.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 14 yds to the Ind 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
34.3%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jacolby Hewitt for 3 yds to the Ind 39Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+18
33.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Jacolby Hewitt for 18 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
32.3%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 46Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 13
OPP 46
+4
33.0%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
33.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty Fryfogle, broken up by Jeremy DarvinSimilar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
35.7%
James Evans punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
40.4%
Adam Cofield run for 1 yd to the WKent 21Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
40.2%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Mitchell Tinsley, broken up by Tiawan MullenSimilar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-5
38.7%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Boe Wilson) to the WKent 16Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+1
38.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 1 yd to the WKent 17Similar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
37.6%
John Haggerty III punt for 60 yds, downed at the Ind 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:5965% → 62%
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
35.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Miles Marshall for 12 yds to the Ind 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+14
34.5%
Stephen Carr run for 14 yds to the Ind 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
32.4%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 46
0
34.4%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Stephen CarrSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 46
0
35.7%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
37.8%
James Evans punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterns at the WKent 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:2441% → 44%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
41.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 6 yds to the WKent 12Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+4
42.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the WKent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+12
42.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 12 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
43.0%
Bailey Zappe run for 6 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+9
45.7%
Adam Cofield run for 9 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
46.3%
WHITTINGTON, N. rush for 4 yards to the WKU47 (McFadden, Micah;Anderson, Ryder), PENALTY WKU illegal formation 5 yards to the WKU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
43.2%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Josh SternsSimilar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 15
OWN 38
0
43.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+14
40.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 14 yds to the Ind 48Similar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
43.7%
John Haggerty III punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Reese Taylor at the Ind 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 17TD
14 plays · 86 yds · 6:1964% → 91%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
35.6%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ind 12Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 12
OWN 12
0
36.2%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Peyton HendershotSimilar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 12
OWN 12
+20
37.8%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Peyton Hendershot for 20 yds to the Ind 32 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
34.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass incomplete to Ty FryfogleSimilar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+13
35.1%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 13 yds to the Ind 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+21
32.0%
Tim Baldwin Jr. run for 21 yds to the WKent 34 Tim Baldwin Jr. fumbled, forced by A.J. Brathwaite Jr., recovered by Ind Tim Baldwin Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
29.6%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Camron Buckley for 5 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+1
29.0%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the WKent 28Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+10
31.0%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 10 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
29.0%
Stephen Carr run for 8 yds to the WKent 10Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+4
29.0%
Stephen Carr run for 4 yds to the WKent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
29.0%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd to the WKent 5Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
29.0%
Chris Childers run for 4 yds to the WKent 1Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
8.6%
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:4411% → 47%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.2%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns, broken up by Tiawan MullenSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
10.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 3 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
10.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth Sterns, broken up by Marcelino McCrary-BallSimilar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+38
9.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 38 yds to the Ind 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+12
16.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 12 yds to the Ind 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
16.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
15.9%
Adam Cofield run for 3 yds to the Ind 19Similar
Q4 2:43
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
46.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 19 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IUDrive 19END OF GAME
10 plays · 7 yds · 1:2574% → 82%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
25.8%
Stephen Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 34Similar
Q4 2:43
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+3
27.2%
Stephen Carr run for 3 yds to the Ind 37Similar
Q4 1:55
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+10
19.5%
Michael Penix Jr. pass complete to Ty Fryfogle for 10 yds to the Ind 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
15.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ind 44Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 13
OWN 44
-1
16.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 43Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 14
OWN 43
-1
18.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ind 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:43
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 19 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+30.6
TD · Q4 4:27
Stephen Carr run for 1 yd for a TD (Charles Campbell KICK)
-20.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-18.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com