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UTSA

UTSA 31 at Memphis 28

MEM
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FUMBLETDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Hunter Duplessis 42 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTime remainingBlowout margin
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:54: Sincere McCormick run for 12 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +12.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:25: Sincere McCormick run for 8 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +15.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:35: Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +15.5 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:30: Sincere McCormick 1 Yd Run (Hunter Duplessis Kick) — UTSA win probability +31.2 pts (now 49%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Hunter Duplessis 42 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +42.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UTSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:46MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:43UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:54UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:44MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 28, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.8%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:38UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:50MEM 4th & 19 at UTSA 49, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%−1.5
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:17MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 33, up 14
    Close callPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:55UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.3%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:07MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.9%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:22UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.9
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:27MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.6%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:20UTSA 4th & 3 at MEM 44, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    16.9%−2.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%−1.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:44MEM 4th & 6 at UTSA 34, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.8%−0.6
    47% to make
    Punt
    83.9%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:30UTSA 4th & 1 at MEM 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−5.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−20.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:23UTSA 4th & 1 at MEM 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−13.7
    25% to make
    Punt
    41.1%−9.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:46MEM 4th & 19 at MEM 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−7.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:00UTSA 4th & 11 at MEM 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−16.4
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−27.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:23MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:22MEM Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:54UTSA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:25UTSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:44MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:35UTSA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:30UTSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5351% → 51%
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
51.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the Memph 27Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+4
51.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q1 13:54
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
51.3%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
51.2%
Joe Doyle punt for 41 ydsSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
51.3%
HARRIS, Frank pass to the left complete for 5 yards to CLARK, De'Corian caught at the TSA26 and advanced to the TSA33 (BLAKE, Sanchez;MASHBURN, Cole). PENALTY TSA Chop Block enforced half the distance from the goal, 14 yards from the TSA28 to the TSA14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -28 yds · 0:1649% → 48%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
51.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 5 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 24
OWN 14
0
52.0%
run for a loss of 14 yards fumbled, recovered by Memph Wardalis Ducksworth for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:3548% → 48%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
52.1%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
52.3%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+23
52.5%
Lucas Dean punt for 63 yds , Calvin Austin III returns for 23 yds to the Memph 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:5753% → 57%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
52.7%
Seth Henigan run for 2 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+15
52.8%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Rashad Wisdom) to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
53.3%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the TexSA 24Similar
Q1 11:21
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+2
53.5%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+8
53.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 8 yds to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
54.1%
Seth Henigan sacked by Clarence Hicks for 0 yards to the TexSA 22Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 18
OPP 22
+8
54.4%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 8 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
54.6%
HENIGAN, Seth pass up the middle incomplete intended for AUSTIN III, Calvin thrown to the TSA0. PENALTY TSA Holding on WISDOM, Rashad enforced half the distance from the goal, 7 yards from the TSA14 to the TSA7 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
57.0%
Rodrigues Clark run for 7 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1944% → 42%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
56.6%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+2
57.0%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
57.8%
Lucas Dean punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 1:1059% → 64%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-4
58.8%
Seth Henigan run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 15Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 14
OWN 15
0
59.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 14
OWN 15
+13
59.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 13 yds to the Memph 28Similar
Q1 6:44
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+12
59.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 12 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
64.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 60 yds for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:3936% → 31%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
64.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
62.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.8%
Frank Harris sacked by Xavier Cullens for 0 yards to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+10
66.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 10 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+3
67.1%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
68.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 46 yds · 3:3267% → 70%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+11
66.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brandon Thomas for 11 yds to the Memph 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
67.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+41
68.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 41 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-9
71.4%
run for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 49 fumbled, recovered by Memph Seth HeniganSimilar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 19
OPP 49
0
68.8%
Marquavius Weaver run for no gain to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 19
OPP 49
-5
68.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Memph 46Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 24
OWN 46
+5
70.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 5 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 14:50
4TH & 19
OPP 49
0
69.8%
Joe Doyle punt for 36 yds, downed at the TexSA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9TD
13 plays · 87 yds · 4:3726% → 34%
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
74.5%
Brenden Brady run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 12Similar
Q2 14:13
2ND & 11
OWN 12
+5
75.1%
HARRIS, Frank pass to the left incomplete intended for BRADLEY, Tre'Von thrown to the TSA16. PENALTY MEM Pass Interference on RUBIN, Greg enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the TSA17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
75.1%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the TexSA 21Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+10
75.5%
Brenden Brady run for 10 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
75.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 8 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+1
76.0%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 12:27
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+10
76.7%
Brenden Brady run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
50
+4
77.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 11:35
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+13
77.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 13 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
76.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+14
77.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 14 yds to the Memph 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
77.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the Memph 12Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+12
65.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 12 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3170% → 71%
Q2 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
70.9%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
70.7%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 33Similar
Q2 8:17
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+11
70.5%
Joe Doyle punt for 46 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 11 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:5430% → 25%
Q2 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
69.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+1
70.2%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 7:16
3RD & 5
OWN 23
+4
70.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 4 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+6
71.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 6 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
70.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 9 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q2 5:55
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+8
70.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
50
+13
70.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 13 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
71.1%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+1
71.6%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-1
73.0%
Frank Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 35Similar
Q2 3:13
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
74.7%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Holding on MAKA, Ahofitu ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:5577% → 77%
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
76.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-10
77.9%
ROGERS, Gabriel rush to the right for a gain of 6 yards to the MEM46 (WILEY, Charles). PENALTY MEM Holding on FIELDS, Evan enforced 10 yards from the MEM40 to the MEM30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
77.4%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+4
76.8%
Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the Memph 34Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
76.9%
Joe Doyle punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4323% → 22%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
76.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
76.7%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 7
OWN 18
0
77.2%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:22
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
77.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:4179% → 78%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
79.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 5 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-4
80.0%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Brandon Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 36Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
79.1%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 9
OWN 36
+41
78.2%
Joe Doyle punt for 41 yds UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Running Into the kicker on JONES, Malik (Sheldon Jones) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15END OF HALF
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:2022% → 22%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
78.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+4
79.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 4 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+13
79.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Dan Dishman for 13 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
79.1%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
79.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
78.1%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 3:3022% → 20%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
77.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 12 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
77.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+2
78.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 2 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q3 13:11
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+11
80.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 11 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
78.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
78.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 11:59
3RD & 2
OPP 43
-1
79.1%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 44Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
80.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Calvin Austin III at the Memph 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17MISSED FG
5 plays · 57 yds · 2:2083% → 85%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+53
82.9%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 53 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
84.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd to the TexSA 37Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+4
85.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 4 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-1
85.3%
Brandon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+52
84.7%
Joe Doyle 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 3:1417% → 33%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
82.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 11 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
82.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
82.0%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+7
83.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Dan Dishman for 7 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
82.2%
Brenden Brady run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 46Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+9
83.4%
Frank Harris run for 9 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+2
82.5%
Brenden Brady run for 2 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
81.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Clipping (Xavier Cullens) to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
81.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
82.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness ( Yards) to the Memph 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
66.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 8 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
8 plays · 73 yds · 2:3177% → 92%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
76.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
76.2%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 11
OWN 26
+31
75.6%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 31 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
79.5%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 15 yds to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
80.4%
MEMPHIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+32
80.1%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Sean Dykes for 32 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.9%
Seth Henigan run for no gain to the TexSA 1Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joe Doyle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5812% → 26%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
88.2%
pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+12
88.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 12 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+47
88.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 47 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
87.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
89.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the Memph 4Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+3
89.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the Memph 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.7%
Frank Harris sacked by Wardalis Ducksworth and Julian Barnett for 0 yards to the Memph 7Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
74.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:1884% → 85%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.2%
Brandon Thomas run for 8 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
85.4%
Gabriel Rogers run for 4 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
85.8%
HENIGAN, Seth scrambles up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the MEM41 (LIGON, Jamal). PENALTY TSA Personal Foul enforced 15 yards from the MEM37 to the TSA48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 25
OWN 22
0
84.8%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 25
OWN 22
0
84.7%
Seth Henigan sacked for 0 yards to the Memph 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2125% → 49%
Q4 11:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
75.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the Memph 2Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
75.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the Memph 1Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
77.9%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the Memph 1Similar
Q4 10:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.7%
Sincere McCormick 1 Yd Run (Hunter Duplessis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23FUMBLE
6 plays · 56 yds · 2:0760% → 68%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.7%
Brandon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Memph 30Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
61.0%
Brandon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 9:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
59.6%
Brandon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Memph 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
60.8%
Seth Henigan pass complete to Calvin Austin III for 40 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
67.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
67.8%
Brandon Thomas run for 6 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:3645% → 51%
Q4 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
54.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+4
54.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+9
53.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 9 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
52.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
49.5%
Brenden Brady pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 8 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
48.0%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 6
50
+3
46.4%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+2
47.0%
Brenden Brady run for 2 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q4 4:23
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
49.5%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the Memph 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 1:3165% → 59%
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
64.6%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
63.0%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+11
61.0%
Seth Henigan run for 11 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
66.4%
Seth Henigan run for 1 yd to the TexSA 43Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 9
OPP 43
-10
66.2%
HENIGAN, Seth pass to the left complete for 41 yards to ROGERS, Gabriel caught at the TSA14 and advanced to the TSA2, out of bounds. PENALTY MEM Holding on GAMBILL, Jonah enforced 10 yards from the TSA43 to the MEM47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:59
2ND & 19
OWN 47
0
61.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 19
OWN 47
0
59.7%
Seth Henigan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 19
OWN 47
0
58.6%
Joe Doyle punt for 25 yds, downed at the TexSA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26FG
13 plays · 47 yds · 2:3447% → 93%
Q4 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
53.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+12
49.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 12 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
46.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+2
44.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+22
45.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 22 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
39.2%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+2
39.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 24
-1
41.0%
Sincere McCormick run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 25Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+42
6.7%
Hunter Duplessis 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Hunter Duplessis 42 yd FG GOOD
-42.3
TD · Q4 10:30
Sincere McCormick 1 Yd Run (Hunter Duplessis Kick)
-31.2
TD · Q4 13:35
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 7 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
-15.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com