2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Rice Stadium
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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadTXSO aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreTXSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:17 · Charlie Mendes punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSo 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 8:24: Luke McCaffrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK) — RICE win probability +2.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:28: Andrew Body run for 3 yds for a TD, (Richard Garcia III KICK) — TXSO win probability +3.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: TXSO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:20: Jordan Myers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK) — RICE win probability +2.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:40: Jalen Brown pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 4 yds for a TD, (Richard Garcia III KICK) — TXSO win probability +3.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: TXSO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:30: Kevin Harris run for 11 yds for a TD, (Richard Garcia III KICK) — TXSO win probability +3.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: TXSO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TXSO made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
- Q1 13:09TXSO 4th & 16 at TXSO 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q1 13:09TXSO 4th & 16 at TXSO 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.0%average punt
- Q1 11:03RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q1 11:03RICE 4th & 8 at RICE 35, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.9%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.0%average punt
- Q1 8:25TXSO 4th & 7 at TXSO 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q1 2:29TXSO 4th & 15 at TXSO 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.217% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q2 12:51TXSO 4th & 7 at RICE 8, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.9%−<0.129% to convertField goalTheir call3.0%90% to makePunt2.2%−0.8average punt
- Q2 12:44RICE 4th & 1 at RICE 46, up 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt96.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 6:05TXSO 4th & 12 at TXSO 23, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snapGo for it2.4%−0.522% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q2 2:17RICE 4th & 5 at TXSO 45, up 17Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snapGo for it97.2%41% to convertField goal97.0%−0.325% to makePuntTheir call97.1%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:28TXSO 4th & 1 at TXSO 38, down 17Close callPunted · 3.1% before the snapGo for it3.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%−0.3average punt
- Q2 0:17RICE 4th & 1 at TXSO 40, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.9%70% to convertField goal96.9%−<0.134% to makePunt96.6%−0.3average punt
- Q3 12:35TXSO 4th & 20 at TXSO 37, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.3%−0.710% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.0%average punt
- Q3 7:05TXSO 4th & 3 at RICE 11, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.6%50% to convertField goal1.5%−0.187% to makePunt0.3%−1.3average punt
- Q3 2:20TXSO 4th & 8 at RICE 34, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.2%34% to convertField goal1.2%−<0.147% to makePunt1.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 15:00TXSO 4th & 4 at RICE 18, down 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.0%47% to convertField goal0.9%−<0.179% to makePunt-0.3%−1.3average punt
- Q4 12:16RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 22, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.3%−0.538% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.8%average punt
- Q4 11:06TXSO 4th & 7 at TXSO 49, down 14Close callPunted · 5.0% before the snapGo for it4.6%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TXSO made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 14:47RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:23RICE Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.7%97% to makeGo for two97.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:16RICE Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call97.5%97% to makeGo for two97.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:24RICE Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:28TXSO Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call4.0%97% to makeGo for two3.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:20RICE Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:40TXSO Touchdown, down 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call3.5%97% to makeGo for two3.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:43RICE Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:30TXSO Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call3.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two3.0%45% to convert
- Q4 4:04RICE Touchdown, up 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.6%45% to convert
- Q4 2:34TXSO Touchdown, down 15 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call2.3%−0.197% to makeGo for two2.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTXSODrive 1TD3 plays · 73 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+73
98.7%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Cedric Patterson III for 73 yds for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 2PUNT8 plays · -6 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q1 14:47
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-10
98.7%
Body,Andrew rush for 0 yards to the TSU39 (Lockhart,Kirk) PENALTY TSU Holding (Hemphill,Aiden) 10 yards from TSU39 to TSU29. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+3
98.6%
Sawyer Evans punt for 41 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 3 yds to the Rice 33Similar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+3
98.6%
Sawyer Evans punt for 41 yds , Sean Fresch returns for 3 yds to the Rice 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 2:0699% → 98%
Q1 13:09
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+4
98.6%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Cedric Patterson III for 4 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
98.4%
Charlie Mendes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the TexSo 28Similar
Q1 11:03
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
98.4%
Charlie Mendes punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jonathan Giles at the TexSo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 4PUNT8 plays · 23 yds · 2:382% → 2%
Q1 11:03
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+11
98.4%
Andrew Body pass complete to Ke'Lenn Davis for 11 yds to the TexSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
98.4%
PENALTY RIC Offside (Garcia,Elijah) 5 yards from TSU38 to TSU43. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 5
OWN 43
-10
98.4%
Harris,Kevin rush for 0 yards to the TSU43 (Nyakwol,George) PENALTY TSU Holding (Centers,Drake) 10 yards from TSU43 to TSU33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
98.2%
Sawyer Evans punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the Rice 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 5TD7 plays · 85 yds · 3:0298% → 98%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+9
98.2%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Brendan Suckley for 9 yds to the Rice 24Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+16
98.2%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Jack Bradley for 16 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
98.3%
TEXAS SOUTHERN Penalty, Personal Foul (Calvin Henderson) to the TexSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+19
98.3%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Jordan Myers for 19 yds to the TexSo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 6PUNT10 plays · 14 yds · 2:502% → 2%
Q1 5:19
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+18
98.2%
Andrew Body pass complete to Ke'Lenn Davis for 18 yds to the TexSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
98.2%
Harris,Kevin rush for 0 yards to the TSU42 (Morrison,Myron) PENALTY RIC Offside (Orji,Kenneth) 5 yards from TSU42 to TSU47. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:19
1ST & 5
OWN 47
+2
98.1%
Andrew Body pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 2 yds to the TexSo 49Similar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 3
OWN 49
-5
98.1%
Body,Andrew pass incomplete to Johnson,Jyrin QB hurried by Pearcy,Josh PENALTY TSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Hemphill,Aiden) 5 yards from TSU49 to TSU44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:19
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-9
98.2%
Andrew Body sacked by Josh Pearcy for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 7INT5 plays · 13 yds · 1:3598% → 98%
Q1 2:29
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+5
98.0%
PENALTY TSU Illegal Formation 5 yards from RIC28 to RIC33, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 8FG11 plays · 63 yds · 3:032% → 3%
Q1 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
97.8%
Body,Andrew pass incomplete to Davis,Ke'Lenn PENALTY RIC Pass Interference (McCord,Miles) 15 yards from TSU39 to RIC46, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 9TD12 plays · 63 yds · 5:2898% → 98%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
97.6%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Jake Bailey for 17 yds to the TexSo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+12
97.6%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Cameron Montgomery for 12 yds to the TexSo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.2%
Jordan Myers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian VanSickle PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 10PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 1:072% → 2%
Q2 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
97.7%
Body,Andrew pass complete to Giles,Jonathan for 6 yards to the TSU31 (Nyakwol,George) PENALTY TSU Pass Interference (Sims,Savion) 12 yards from TSU25 to TSU13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:12
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+10
97.8%
Andrew Body pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 10 yds to the TexSo 23Similar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
97.7%
Sawyer Evans punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the Rice 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:4898% → 98%
Q2 6:05
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+6
98.2%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Jake Bailey for 6 yds to the Rice 48Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+2
98.1%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Jake Bailey for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 2
OPP 42
-3
98.1%
Jake Constantine sacked by Chrishon Frazier for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 12PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 0:493% → 3%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
97.5%
Andrew Body pass complete to Savion Sims for 12 yds to the TexSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
97.4%
PENALTY RIC Offside (Orji,Kenneth) 5 yards from TSU31 to TSU36. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 1
OWN 38
0
97.3%
Sawyer Evans punt for 37 yds , Sean Fresch returns for no gain to the Rice 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13FUMBLE9 plays · 36 yds · 1:1198% → 97%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.9%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Jordan Myers for 5 yds to the Rice 30Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
97.9%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Jake Bailey for 7 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+14
97.9%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Jordan Myers for 14 yds to the TexSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-10
98.0%
Constantine,Jake rush for 25 yards gain to the TSU24, End Of Play PENALTY RIC Holding (Baker,Shea) 10 yards from TSU49 to RIC41. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+10
97.9%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Jordan Myers for 10 yds to the TexSo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 14FG5 plays · 34 yds · 0:173% → 4%
TXSODrive 15PUNT6 plays · 8 yds · 2:203% → 3%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-14
96.5%
Andrew Body sacked by Ikenna Enechukwu for a loss of 14 yards to the TexSo 33 Andrew Body fumbled, recovered by TexSo Drake Centers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 16TD9 plays · 69 yds · 4:1197% → 99%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
96.8%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Jaeger Bull for 13 yds to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+14
96.9%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Jake Bailey for 14 yds to the TexSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+14
96.2%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Jake Bailey for 14 yds to the TexSo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
96.2%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Jake Bailey for 5 yds to the TexSo 1Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.1%
Luke McCaffrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Christian VanSickle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 17TD9 plays · 86 yds · 1:511% → 5%
RICEDrive 18TD10 plays · 78 yds · 4:0297% → 99%
Q3 6:22
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+31
96.6%
Jake Constantine pass complete to Cedric Patterson III for 31 yds to the TexSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 19TD14 plays · 75 yds · 3:401% → 5%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
98.9%
Andrew Body pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 39 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+10
98.8%
Andrew Body pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 10 yds to the Rice 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+5
99.1%
Andrew Body pass complete to Ke'Lenn Davis for 5 yds to the Rice 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
98.8%
Body,Andrew pass incomplete to Davis,Ke'Lenn PENALTY RIC Holding 5 yards from RIC09 to RIC04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.4%
Jalen Brown pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 4 yds for a TD, (Richard Garcia III KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 20INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:105% → 4%
RICEDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0798% → 98%
Q4 12:16
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+10
97.8%
Charlie Mendes punt for 57 yds , Jonathan Giles returns for 10 yds to the TexSo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 22PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 1:104% → 4%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
96.1%
Andrew Body pass complete to Ke'Lenn Davis for 15 yds to the TexSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
96.0%
Andrew Body pass complete to Jyrin Johnson for 3 yds to the TexSo 49Similar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
96.5%
Sawyer Evans punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Sean Fresch at the Rice 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23TD3 plays · 83 yds · 1:2398% → 100%
TXSODrive 24TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:131% → 4%
RICEDrive 25TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2698% → 100%
TXSODrive 26TD7 plays · 75 yds · 1:301% → 3%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.5%
Andrew Body pass complete to Kevin Harris for 7 yds to the TexSo 32Similar
Q4 4:04
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
99.5%
PENALTY RIC Pass Interference (Fresch,Sean) 15 yards from TSU32 to TSU47, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+43
99.5%
Andrew Body pass complete to Derrick Morton for 43 yds to the Rice 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
99.3%
Andrew Body pass complete to Derrick Morton for 4 yds to the Rice 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 27END OF GAME7 plays · 34 yds · 2:3499% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:28
Andrew Body run for 3 yds for a TD, (Richard Garcia III KICK)
-3.6
TD · Q4 13:40
Jalen Brown pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 4 yds for a TD, (Richard Garcia III KICK)
-3.4
TD · Q4 8:30
Kevin Harris run for 11 yds for a TD, (Richard Garcia III KICK)
-3.4