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FAU

Florida Atlantic 7 at Air Force 31

AF
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+2.3AF 89.2%Anthony Rodriguez 31 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 24 · Q2 5:10
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:10 · Anthony Rodriguez 31 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 62Home team on offense+18.2Score differential+11.8Garbage-time factor+5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.6Pregame prior+3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:35: Haaziq Daniels run for 94 yds for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK) — AF win probability +5.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:48: Brad Roberts run for 24 yds for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK) — AF win probability +11.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:42: N'Kosi Perry run for 34 yds for a TD (Aaron Shahriari KICK) — FAU win probability +7.8 pts (now 23%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 3:42: Micah Davis run for 13 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down — AF win probability +3.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:01: Anthony Rodriguez 22 yd FG MISSED — AF win probability +7.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 10FAU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:07FAU 4th & 17 at FAU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:48FAU 4th & 1 at AF 44, down 7
    Close callPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:14FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:14AF 4th & 1 at AF 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.4%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00AF 4th & 1 at AF 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.9%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:10FAU 4th & 12 at FAU 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−1.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:10AF 4th & 2 at FAU 14, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%−1.0
    84% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−6.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:01AF 4th & 4 at FAU 4, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.4%−1.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−9.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:33AF 4th & 8 at AF 27, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−1.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:09FAU 4th & 13 at AF 43, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−0.6
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:09AF 4th & 1 at AF 31, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.9%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:19FAU 4th & 10 at AF 47, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:32AF 4th & 2 at FAU 34, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:07FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 34, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:07AF 4th & 1 at AF 28, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.2%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:24AF 4th & 6 at AF 47, up 24
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:15AF 4th & 2 at AF 39, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:32FAU 4th & 10 at AF 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:47AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:35AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:48AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:42FAU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:5344% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
56.0%
PENALTY FAU Delay Of Game 5 yards from FAU25 to FAU20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
56.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+2
56.0%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
56.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to John Mitchell for no gain to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
56.3%
Matt Hayball punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 4:2056% → 59%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
56.2%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+7
56.3%
Brad Roberts run for 7 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
56.3%
Dane Kinamon run for 4 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 47
0
56.4%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Micah DavisSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+31
56.2%
Haaziq Daniels run for 31 yds to the FlAtl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
56.5%
PENALTY AF False Start (Patterson,Kyle) 5 yards from FAU22 to FAU27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+4
56.4%
Micah Davis run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+19
56.5%
Micah Davis run for 19 yds to the FlAtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
59.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 4 yds for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 2:5941% → 41%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
58.7%
Johnny Ford run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
58.2%
Ford,Johnny rush for 7 yards gain to the FAU40 (Bugg III,Tre), out of bounds PENALTY FAU Illegal Formation 5 yards from FAU33 to FAU28. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
58.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 9 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
58.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
58.5%
N'Kosi Perry run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
58.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Johnny Ford for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 7
50
+6
58.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 6 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
58.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
Q1 5:48
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
59.5%
Matt Hayball punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4TD
1 play · 94 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+94
64.5%
Haaziq Daniels run for 94 yds for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2137% → 36%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.5%
Malcolm Davidson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
63.5%
Malcolm Davidson run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
63.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to John MitchellSimilar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
64.5%
Matt Hayball punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6TD
15 plays · 82 yds · 7:2666% → 81%
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
65.8%
Haaziq Daniels run for 6 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+2
65.8%
Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+2
65.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the AFA 27 run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 1
OWN 27
+2
65.1%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
65.8%
DeAndre Hughes run for 7 yds to the AFA 36Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+2
66.1%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 1
OWN 38
-5
66.0%
PENALTY AF False Start (Hughes,DeAndre) 5 yards from AF 38 to AF 33. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:14
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+5
65.5%
Micah Davis run for 5 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+9
68.7%
Brad Roberts run for 9 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
69.9%
Emmanuel Michel run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+9
69.8%
Emmanuel Michel run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
69.9%
Omar Fattah run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+4
69.9%
Omar Fattah run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
70.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+24
81.1%
Brad Roberts run for 24 yds for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:3820% → 17%
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
80.5%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Trey Taylor for a loss of 11 yards to the FlAtl 14 N'Kosi Perry fumbled, recovered by FlAtl N'Kosi Perry , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 11:48
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+9
80.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 9 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
82.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brandon RobinsonSimilar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
83.0%
Matt Hayball punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 5:0083% → 89%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
83.2%
Brad Roberts run for 8 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+3
83.8%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
83.7%
Micah Davis run for 1 yd to the AFA 48Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+10
83.6%
Micah Davis run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
87.4%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the FlAtl 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
87.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q2 7:32
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+3
87.3%
Brad Roberts run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 5
OPP 17
+3
86.9%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 14Similar
Q2 5:10
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+31
89.2%
Anthony Rodriguez 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:2313% → 23%
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+32
86.7%
Johnny Ford run for 32 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
85.5%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the AFA 38Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+4
85.1%
Malcolm Davidson run for 4 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+34
77.3%
N'Kosi Perry run for 34 yds for a TD (Aaron Shahriari KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 3:4183% → 90%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
82.7%
Micah Davis run for 13 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
83.2%
Micah Davis run for 5 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
83.3%
Brad Roberts run for 4 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q2 3:42
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
82.7%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
83.3%
Micah Davis run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
83.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+9
85.9%
Dane Kinamon run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+24
86.2%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Micah Davis for 24 yds to the FlAtl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
84.6%
Haaziq Daniels run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q2 0:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
83.0%
Haaziq Daniels run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 4Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
82.0%
Haaziq Daniels pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
89.8%
Anthony Rodriguez 22 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
90.0%
James Charles run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2791% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.4%
Brad Roberts run for 2 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
91.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for no gain to the AFA 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
91.1%
Haaziq Daniels pass incomplete to Brandon LewisSimilar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+4
91.3%
Charles Bein punt for 43 yds , LaJohntay Wester returns for 4 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:248% → 7%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
91.7%
Johnny Ford run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+11
91.8%
N'Kosi Perry run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
50
+6
91.7%
Malcolm Davidson run for 6 yds to the AFA 44Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
91.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+4
91.7%
N'Kosi Perry run for 4 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
91.6%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
91.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brandon RobinsonSimilar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+3
92.0%
N'Kosi Perry run for 3 yds to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
93.1%
Matt Hayball punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14TD
12 plays · 97 yds · 6:3994% → 97%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
94.1%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the AFA 8Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+14
94.1%
Dane Kinamon run for 14 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
94.2%
Micah Davis run for 3 yds to the AFA 25Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+5
94.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the AFA 30Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
93.7%
Brad Roberts run for 1 yd to the AFA 31Similar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+2
93.4%
Haaziq Daniels run for 2 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+46
93.9%
Haaziq Daniels pass complete to Brandon Lewis for 46 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
94.1%
Brad Roberts run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+6
94.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
94.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 8Similar
Q3 10:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
94.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.2%
Micah Davis run for 6 yds for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 2:023% → 3%
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
96.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Zaire Mitchell-Paden for 5 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+14
96.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 14 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
96.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Je'Quan Burton for 14 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
96.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q3 3:21
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
96.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brandon RobinsonSimilar
Q3 3:21
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
96.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
97.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Je'Quan BurtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 2:4798% → 98%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
97.7%
Micah Davis run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
98.1%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+6
98.0%
Micah Davis run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+1
98.0%
Emmanuel Michel run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 2
OPP 34
0
98.2%
Dane Kinamon run for no gain to the FlAtl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:252% → 2%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
98.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to James CharlesSimilar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
98.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to LaJohntay WesterSimilar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
98.4%
Matt Hayball punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the AFA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 6:4398% → 99%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
98.3%
Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+2
98.3%
Dane Kinamon run for 2 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 6
OWN 23
+5
98.3%
Haaziq Daniels run for 5 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+4
98.2%
Jorden Gidrey run for 4 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
98.3%
Omar Fattah run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+10
98.3%
Omar Fattah run for 10 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
98.4%
Omar Fattah run for 6 yds to the AFA 49Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
98.4%
Omar Fattah run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 2
OPP 49
-5
98.4%
PENALTY AF False Start (Booth,Ryan) 5 yards from FAU49 to AF 46. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:07
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+1
98.4%
Omar Fattah run for 1 yd to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
99.1%
Charles Bein punt for 43 yds, fair catch by LaJohntay Wester at the FlAtl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 19INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:001% → 1%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
99.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to TJ Chase for 5 yds to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
99.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Malcolm DavidsonSimilar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 5
OWN 15
+8
99.3%
N'Kosi Perry run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Zaire Mitchell-PadenSimilar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to TJ Chase for 6 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q4 4:24
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
99.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0999% → 100%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
99.3%
Omar Fattah run for 3 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+1
99.2%
Amari Terry run for 1 yd to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+6
99.4%
Omar Fattah run for 6 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q4 3:15
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+1
99.5%
Warren Bryan run for 1 yd to the AFA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · -4 yds · 1:431% → 0%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
99.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to LaJohntay Wester for 7 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
99.4%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the AFA 33Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+34
99.5%
Johnny Ford run for 19 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
99.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
99.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to James CharlesSimilar
Q4 1:32
4TH & 10
OPP 29
0
99.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Brandon RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · -4 yds · 1:32100% → 100%
Q4 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
99.6%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 1:32
2ND & 11
OWN 28
-1
99.6%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 27Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 27
-2
99.7%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:48
Brad Roberts run for 24 yds for a TD (Anthony Rodriguez KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q2 3:42
N'Kosi Perry run for 34 yds for a TD (Aaron Shahriari KICK)
-7.8
FG · Q2 0:01
Anthony Rodriguez 22 yd FG MISSED
+7.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com