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UNT

North Texas 17 at Louisiana Tech 24

LT
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameTD-7.5LT 84.3%Damon Ward Jr. 8 Yd pass from AustinAune (Ethan Mooney Kick)AWAY 17 - HOME 24 · Q4 5:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:39 · Damon Ward Jr. 8 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Ethan Mooney Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Pregame prior+2.4Home team on offense+11.8Score differential+3.5Garbage-time factor+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Time remaining+2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:47: Marcus Williams Jr. run for 42 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +3.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:54: JD Head pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 34 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +6.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:34: DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK) — UNT win probability +5.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:39: Damon Ward Jr. 8 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Ethan Mooney Kick) — UNT win probability +7.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 5:32: Harlan Dixon run for 2 yds to the LaTch 26 — LT win probability +6.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 14:05UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:05UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:43UNT 4th & 6 at LT 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    23.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:43UNT 4th & 6 at LT 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    23.2%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:29UNT 4th & 15 at UNT 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:29UNT 4th & 15 at UNT 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:19LT 4th & 2 at UNT 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%−1.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:50UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:03LT 4th & 3 at UNT 3, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.0%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−4.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:26UNT 4th & 8 at LT 30, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.6%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    8.8%
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.8%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:33LT 4th & 24 at LT 22, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−1.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:05LT 4th & 8 at LT 37, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:30UNT 4th & 4 at LT 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−1.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:42UNT 4th & 9 at LT 48, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:27LT 4th & 25 at UNT 40, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    94.5%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:25UNT 4th & 6 at LT 16, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.5%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−4.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:18LT 4th & 2 at LT 49, up 14
    Close callPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%−0.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:39UNT 4th & 7 at LT 8, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.9%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−3.0
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:37LT 4th & 8 at UNT 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−0.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:02UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.2%−2.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:14LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:47LT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:54LT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:34UNT Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:39UNT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:5126% → 26%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
74.5%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 2 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q1 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
74.5%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
74.5%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 8
OWN 15
+4
74.4%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 54 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 4 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q1 14:05
4TH & 8
OWN 15
+4
74.4%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 54 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 4 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:5174% → 75%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
74.3%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Tre Harris for 5 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+9
74.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Tre Harris for 9 yds to the LaTch 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
74.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 9 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 1
OPP 42
-1
74.4%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 43Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+6
74.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Tre Harris for 6 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
74.4%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
74.4%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+35
74.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 35 yds to the NoTex 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
75.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 3:2525% → 25%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
74.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+7
74.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 7 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
74.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
74.6%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 11 yds to the NoTex 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
74.5%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Bryson Jackson for 5 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+5
74.4%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 5 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
74.4%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
74.4%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 6
OPP 40
0
74.5%
Jace Ruder sacked by Ben Bell and Kershawn Fisher for 0 yards to the LaTch 40Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
74.8%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
74.8%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4TD
5 plays · 60 yds · 1:5676% → 79%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
75.5%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 3 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
75.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+10
75.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 10 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
75.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+42
79.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 42 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:1122% → 21%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
77.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 35Similar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
77.7%
Jace Ruder run for 8 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
77.4%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 6 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
77.4%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 15
OWN 44
0
77.7%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 15
OWN 44
0
77.8%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 15
OWN 44
0
77.8%
Jace Ruder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 15
OWN 44
+10
79.0%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 41 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 10 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 15
OWN 44
+10
79.0%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 41 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 10 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 2:1079% → 80%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
79.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 14 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
79.8%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Tre Harris for 14 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
80.0%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
80.0%
Harlan Dixon run for 8 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
79.8%
Harlan Dixon run for no gain to the NoTex 39Similar
Q1 1:19
4TH & 2
OPP 39
-7
80.0%
Harlan Dixon run for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:4122% → 22%
Q1 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
78.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+18
78.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 18 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 67 yds · 2:4480% → 88%
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
80.4%
JD Head pass complete to Smoke Harris for 7 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+3
81.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
81.2%
JD Head pass complete to Smoke Harris for 12 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
81.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
81.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+5
80.9%
JD Head pass complete to Bub Means for 5 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
87.8%
JD Head pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 34 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 2:0413% → 11%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
87.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 26Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
87.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Ikaika Ragsdale for 4 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+67
88.7%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 39 yds , Smoke Harris returns for 67 yds to the NoTex 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10FG
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:4789% → 90%
Q2 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
88.9%
Harlan Dixon run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 3Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
88.9%
JD Head pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
88.7%
JD Head pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
89.9%
Jacob Barnes 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11DOWNS
12 plays · 49 yds · 3:3210% → 9%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
89.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 17Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+11
89.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 11 yds to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
89.3%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 11 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
89.1%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 8 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+10
88.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 10 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
88.9%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 4 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+7
88.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-1
88.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 33Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 11
OPP 33
+3
88.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
90.1%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 8
OPP 30
0
90.6%
Austin Aune sacked by Ben Bell and Kershawn Fisher for 0 yards to the LaTch 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -14 yds · 1:5392% → 92%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
92.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 33Similar
Q2 6:26
2ND & 13
OWN 33
0
92.1%
JD Head sacked for 0 yards to the LaTch 19Similar
Q2 6:26
3RD & 27
OWN 19
+3
91.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 24
OWN 22
0
92.3%
Cesar Barajas punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13TD
13 plays · 63 yds · 3:599% → 15%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
91.4%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
91.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Bryson Jackson for 15 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
91.2%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jake Roberts for 9 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+4
90.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
90.7%
Austin Aune pass complete to Deonte Simpson for 9 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+2
90.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the LaTch 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
90.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the LaTch 23Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
90.5%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+14
91.1%
Austin Aune run for 14 yds to the LaTch 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
90.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 1 yd to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
90.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the LaTch 6Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
90.9%
AUNE, Austin pass up the middle incomplete intended for BURNS, Roderic thrown to the LAT0. PENALTY LAT Personal Foul on ROSE, Keivie enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the LAT6 to the LAT3 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
85.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ethan Mooney KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
89.0%
PENALTY UNT Personal Foul on THORNTON, Tyrae LAT Personal Foul on FISHER, Kershawn , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:5588% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
88.2%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (Kellton Hollins) to the LaTch 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.2%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 5 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
87.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offsides (Grayson Murphy) to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
88.3%
Aaron Allen run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+3
88.2%
Aaron Allen run for 3 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+5
87.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offsides (Grayson Murphy) to the LaTch 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-2
88.1%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 37Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 8
OWN 37
-3
90.8%
Cesar Barajas punt for 49 yds , Roderic Burns returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16DOWNS
12 plays · 53 yds · 4:3510% → 8%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
89.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+14
90.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 14 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
89.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 12
OWN 27
0
90.0%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 12
OWN 27
+12
90.2%
Austin Aune run for 12 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
89.1%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 3 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
89.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+14
89.3%
Austin Aune run for 14 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
88.6%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 45Similar
Q3 11:05
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+9
89.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 9 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q3 11:05
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
88.5%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:30
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
91.7%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17FUMBLE
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:1993% → 93%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
93.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Bub Means for 8 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
93.7%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 1 yd to the LaTch 45Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
93.4%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for 3 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
93.7%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 11 yds to the NoTex 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
93.7%
Aaron Allen sacked by Enoch Jackson Jr. for 0 yards to the NoTex 45Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 14
OPP 45
0
94.1%
Aaron Allen sacked for 0 yards to the NoTex 46Similar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
92.9%
AUNE, Austin pass to the left incomplete intended for SIMPSON, Deonte thrown to the LAT18. PENALTY UNT Holding on BROWN, Cole enforced 10 yards from the UNT46 to the UNT36 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:297% → 7%
Q3 4:11
1ST & 20
OWN 36
0
93.3%
Austin Aune run for no gain to the NoTex 36Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 20
OWN 36
+15
93.4%
AUNE, Austin pass to the left incomplete intended for JACKSON, Bryson thrown to the LAT25. PENALTY LAT Pass Interference on HAMILTON, Elijah enforced 15 yards to the LAT49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
92.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the LaTch 48Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
92.8%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:11
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
92.9%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:42
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
93.4%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:1595% → 94%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
94.6%
JD Head pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
94.6%
JD Head pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 12 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
94.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Quinn Whitlock) to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-12
94.7%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for a loss of 12 yards to the NoTex 37 fumbled, recovered by LaTch Marcus Williams Jr.Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 22
OPP 37
-5
94.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (Biron Rossell) to the NoTex 42Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 27
OPP 42
+2
94.5%
Harlan Dixon run for 2 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 25
OPP 40
0
94.3%
JD Head pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:27
4TH & 25
OPP 40
0
94.3%
punt blocked by Dion Novil blocked by Dion NovilSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:356% → 9%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
93.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+3
93.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+6
93.8%
Austin Aune run for 6 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
93.4%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+5
93.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 15
-1
93.8%
Austin Aune run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 16Similar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
91.2%
Ethan Mooney 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 4:0094% → 96%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
94.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+1
94.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaTch 33Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+8
94.1%
JD Head run for 8 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
94.5%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 7 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+1
94.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaTch 49Similar
Q4 13:18
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
94.3%
JD Head run for no gain to the LaTch 49Similar
Q4 9:18
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
95.6%
Cesar Barajas punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 85 yds · 3:397% → 16%
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
93.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 16Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
93.1%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+15
93.2%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Ben Bell) to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+20
92.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 20 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
92.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+3
91.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
91.0%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+14
91.4%
Ayo Adeyi run for 14 yds to the LaTch 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
91.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for 3 yds to the LaTch 8Similar
Q4 9:18
2ND & 7
OPP 8
-2
91.0%
Ayo Adeyi run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 10Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+2
91.8%
Austin Aune pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 2 yds to the LaTch 8Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+8
84.3%
Damon Ward Jr. 8 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Ethan Mooney Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23MISSED FG
14 plays · 44 yds · 3:5591% → 95%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
90.7%
Harlan Dixon run for 2 yds to the LaTch 26Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
90.8%
Aaron Allen pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 8
OWN 26
+10
91.3%
ALLEN, Aaron pass to the left incomplete intended for DIXON, Harlan thrown to the LAT30. PENALTY UNT Holding on WHITLOCK, Quinn enforced 10 yards from the LAT26 to the LAT36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
92.4%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 3 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
92.7%
Harlan Dixon run for 4 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
92.3%
Harlan Dixon run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
50
+16
92.9%
Aaron Allen pass complete to Smoke Harris for 16 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
93.3%
Harlan Dixon run for 2 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+2
96.3%
Harlan Dixon run for 2 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-2
96.1%
Keyon Henry-Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 1:37
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
95.3%
Cesar Barajas 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:358% → 7%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
91.9%
Austin Aune run for 4 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
91.8%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
92.2%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
93.0%
Austin Aune pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:39
Damon Ward Jr. 8 Yd pass from Austin Aune (Ethan Mooney Kick)
-7.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+7
TD · Q2 12:54
JD Head pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 34 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)
+6.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com