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TROY

Troy 21 at Southern Miss 9

USM
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:48 · Mason Hunt punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior−23.0Home team on offense+0.8Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:13: Taylor Powell pass incomplete — USM win probability +5.2 pts (now 46%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 23 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST down — TROY win probability +5.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 12:53: Taylor Powell pass complete to Jabre Barber for 17 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +9.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:41: Taylor Powell pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 16 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +9.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:49: Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK) — TROY win probability +6.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 11TROY made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 12:06USM 4th & 5 at TROY 29, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:27TROY 4th & 9 at USM 41, down 3
    Close callPunted · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    71.2%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:39USM 4th & 15 at TROY 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.2%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    31.2%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:26TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:48USM 4th & 12 at USM 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:06TROY 4th & 1 at TROY 34, down 3
    Close callPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.7%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:47TROY 4th & 15 at USM 18, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.3%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    62.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:48USM 4th & 20 at USM 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−3.0
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:46TROY 4th & 8 at TROY 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.1%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:45USM 4th & 23 at USM 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−3.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:13USM 4th & 1 at USM 32, up 3
    Close callPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:41TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−4.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:45USM 4th & 5 at USM 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:56TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 9:52USM 4th & 11 at USM 30, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−1.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  16. Q3 7:28TROY 4th & 13 at USM 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−1.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−1.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:20USM 4th & 15 at TROY 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:20USM 4th & 16 at USM 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−1.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:39TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 45, up 11
    Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:16USM 4th & 17 at midfield, down 18
    Close callWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−<0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:00TROY 4th & 13 at TROY 38, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 0 of 1TROY made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q3 12:53TROY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 0:41TROY Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 5:49TROY Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 3:04USM Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    6.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1FG
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:5421% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
21.0%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 9 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
21.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+27
21.0%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 27 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
21.0%
Ty Keyes run for 1 yd to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+1
21.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+3
21.0%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 3 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+46
22.8%
Briggs Bourgeois 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:3977% → 75%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.7%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
22.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 4 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
22.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+23
22.7%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 23 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
22.5%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
22.5%
Kimani Vidal run for 2 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
24.4%
Taylor Powell sacked by Eriq Kitchen for 0 yards to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
24.9%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
14 plays · 52 yds · 5:4824% → 29%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
24.4%
Ty Keyes run for 1 yd to the SoMis 3Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+3
24.4%
Cole Cavallo run for 3 yds to the SoMis 6Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+8
24.2%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Grayson Gunter for 8 yds to the SoMis 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
24.7%
Ty Keyes run for no gain to the SoMis 14Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+5
24.6%
TROY Penalty, Offsides (Richard Jibunor) to the SoMis 19Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
24.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the SoMis 19Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+26
24.5%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 26 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
25.2%
Ty Keyes run for 9 yds to the Troy 46Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+5
25.3%
Ty Keyes run for 5 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-4
25.3%
Dajon Richard run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 14
OPP 45
-1
25.0%
Ty Keyes run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 46Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 15
OPP 46
0
24.7%
Ty Keyes pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 15
OPP 46
0
27.8%
Mason Hunt punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 13Similar
Q1 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-8
28.6%
POWELL, Taylor pass to the left complete for 8 yards to JOHNSON, Tez caught at the TRY21 and advanced to the TRY21, End of Play. PENALTY TRY Holding on BUTLER, Deandre enforced half the distance from the goal, 6 yards from the TRY13 to the TRY7 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:1371% → 69%
Q1 2:39
1ST & 16
OWN 7
0
28.8%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 16
OWN 7
0
28.9%
TROY Penalty, Illegal Substitution (Kimani Vidal) to the Troy 3Similar
Q1 2:39
2ND & 20
OWN 3
+8
28.9%
Jamontez Woods run for 8 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q1 2:39
3RD & 12
OWN 11
0
29.1%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Jamontez Woods for no gain to the Troy 11Similar
Q1 0:26
4TH & 12
OWN 11
+3
30.8%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 54 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 3 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1230% → 30%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
30.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+7
29.8%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 7 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
30.3%
Ty Keyes sacked by Carlton Martial for 0 yards to the SoMis 36Similar
Q2 13:48
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
29.6%
Mason Hunt punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4269% → 67%
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.8%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
31.0%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 3 yds to the Troy 32Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
31.8%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Reggie Todd for 2 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
32.8%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 42 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 2 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
32.1%
Ty Keyes pass intercepted return for no gain to the SoMis 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · -19 yds · 2:0670% → 66%
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
30.0%
Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
30.0%
Taylor Powell sacked by Eriq Kitchen for 0 yards to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 18
OPP 21
+3
31.7%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 3 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q2 9:47
4TH & 15
OPP 18
-14
34.5%
run for a loss of 14 yards to the SoMis 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:5934% → 34%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
33.8%
Ty Keyes sacked by Elgin Griffin for 0 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 19
OWN 23
+2
33.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 17
OWN 25
-3
32.6%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
33.8%
Ty Keyes sacked by Elgin Griffin for 0 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 20
OWN 22
0
34.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0264% → 62%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
35.9%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+2
36.0%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
36.7%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+14
38.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 41 yds , Natrone Brooks returns for 14 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 2:0139% → 36%
Q2 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
38.5%
Ty Keyes run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 12
OWN 46
-15
37.5%
KEYES, Ty pass up the middle incomplete intended for ROBINSON, Antoine broken up by STARLING, Darrell at the TRY18. PENALTY USM Chop Block on SCOTT, Gerquan enforced 15 yards from the USM46 to the USM31 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 27
OWN 31
0
36.4%
Dajon Richard run for no gain to the SoMis 31Similar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 27
OWN 31
+4
35.4%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 4 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 23
OWN 35
0
36.4%
Mason Hunt punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:4962% → 65%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
38.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 18Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+5
38.5%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+34
39.1%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 34 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
35.5%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 9 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
34.3%
Reggie Todd pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+13
35.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 13 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
35.1%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:3240% → 41%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
40.1%
Dajon Richard run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
41.0%
Ty Keyes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+7
40.5%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Dajon Richard for 7 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
40.7%
Mason Hunt punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:3254% → 51%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
45.9%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
3RD & 22
OWN 10
0
47.5%
TROY Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 16
OWN 16
+13
48.8%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 54 yds , Da'quan Bailey-Brown returns for 13 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15MISSED FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 0:4146% → 47%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
45.8%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 3
50
0
46.5%
Ty Keyes pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 3
50
+5
45.6%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
47.0%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 6 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+15
45.9%
KEYES, Ty pass to the left incomplete intended for BROWNLEE, Jason thrown to the TRY6. PENALTY TRY Pass Interference on CULP, Elijah enforced 15 yards to the TRY24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+41
46.8%
Briggs Bourgeois 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 2:0758% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
41.6%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 23 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+29
38.8%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Reggie Todd for 29 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
37.2%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+6
37.6%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 4
OPP 17
+17
28.3%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Jabre Barber for 17 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:0832% → 30%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
31.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Eric Scott Jr.) to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
31.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 5 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
31.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, False Start (Khalique Washington) to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
31.2%
Ty Keyes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+10
30.1%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Jason Brownlee for 10 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
30.2%
Mason Hunt punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4970% → 66%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
30.3%
Kimani Vidal run for 3 yds to the Troy 35Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
29.9%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
31.0%
Taylor Powell pass incomplete TROY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jake Andrews) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 7
OWN 35
-5
32.5%
TROY Penalty, False Start (Charles Strong) to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 10:56
4TH & 12
OWN 30
+12
33.6%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 51 yds , Da'quan Bailey-Brown returns for 12 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0433% → 31%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
32.6%
Ty Keyes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
32.4%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
30.9%
Ty Keyes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:52
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
30.5%
Mason Hunt punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:2468% → 68%
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+24
31.6%
Reggie Todd run for 24 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
29.5%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+13
29.5%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 13 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
29.0%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
29.1%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:52
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-3
29.6%
Taylor Powell pass complete to B.J. Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 13
OPP 43
0
32.2%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:0832% → 31%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
32.3%
Ty Keyes run for 7 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+12
33.0%
run for 12 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
33.6%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Demarcus Jones for 9 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+10
36.0%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 10 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
36.5%
Ty Keyes pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
36.3%
Ty Keyes run for no gain to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
35.2%
Ty Keyes sacked by Javon Solomon for 0 yards to the Troy 47Similar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 15
OPP 47
0
31.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:3970% → 85%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
29.6%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
29.9%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 5 yds to the Troy 25Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
30.6%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 6 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
29.0%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 6 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+6
28.0%
Jamontez Woods run for 6 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
27.4%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Jabre Barber for 1 yd to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+14
27.4%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Jabre Barber for 14 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
26.7%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Jabre Barber for 14 yds to the SoMis 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
25.4%
Taylor Powell sacked by Averie Habas for 0 yards to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 17
OPP 35
0
26.7%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 17
OPP 35
+15
28.8%
POWELL, Taylor pass to the right incomplete intended for WHITTEMORE, Luke thrown to the USM6. PENALTY USM Pass Interference on SCOTT, Eric enforced 15 yards to the USM20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
25.4%
Tez Johnson run for 4 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+16
15.5%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 16 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:2117% → 14%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
17.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 6 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-4
17.3%
Frank Gore Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
15.6%
Ty Keyes sacked by Richard Jibunor and Javon Solomon for 0 yards to the SoMis 19Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
14.1%
Mason Hunt punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:4184% → 86%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
16.5%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
16.8%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 1 yd to the Troy 29Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+10
17.2%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 10 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
15.4%
Kimani Vidal run for 5 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+1
15.2%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 45Similar
Q4 14:20
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
15.4%
Taylor Powell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:39
4TH & 4
OWN 45
+19
14.1%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 44 yds , Da'quan Bailey-Brown returns for 19 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 2:4415% → 10%
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
14.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 6Similar
Q4 11:39
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+7
14.5%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Frank Gore Jr. for 7 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 2
OWN 13
+5
14.0%
Ty Keyes run for 5 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
14.8%
KEYES, Ty scrambles to the right for a gain of 8 yards to the USM26 (ROBERTSON, KJ), out of bounds. PENALTY USM Holding on SCOTT, Gerquan enforced half the distance from the goal, 9 yards from the USM18 to the USM9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+15
14.7%
KEYES, Ty pass up the middle incomplete intended for ROBINSON, Antoine thrown to the USM31. PENALTY TRY Personal Foul on REAVES, Devon enforced 15 yards from the USM9 to the USM24 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
14.9%
Ty Keyes sacked by Luis Medina for 0 yards to the SoMis 15Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 25
OWN 9
0
13.7%
Ty Keyes sacked by Richard Jibunor for 0 yards to the SoMis 2Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 32
OWN 2
+16
10.4%
Mason Hunt punt for 38 yds , Tez Johnson returns for 16 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 26TD
6 plays · 24 yds · 3:0690% → 98%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
10.0%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q4 7:26
2ND & 2
OPP 16
-2
9.2%
Taylor Powell pass complete to AJ Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 7:26
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+11
8.2%
Taylor Powell pass complete to Tez Johnson for 11 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
8.1%
Kimani Vidal run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 8Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
1.9%
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:233% → 2%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
2.5%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 1 yd to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
2.6%
Ty Keyes pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:39
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+19
2.5%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Antoine Robinson for 19 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
2.7%
Frank Gore Jr. run for 2 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
2.8%
Ty Keyes sacked by Richard Jibunor for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 17
50
0
2.2%
Frank Gore Jr. run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 17
50
0
2.1%
Ty Keyes pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 28FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
50
+47
3.3%
Everitt Cunningham 47 Yd Fumble Return (Briggs Bourgeois PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 29PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:0297% → 97%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
3.4%
TROY Penalty, False Start (Clayton Ollendieck) to the Troy 36Similar
Q4 3:02
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+1
3.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 3:02
2ND & 14
OWN 37
0
3.7%
Kimani Vidal run for no gain to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+1
3.6%
Kimani Vidal run for 1 yd to the Troy 38Similar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
2.6%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Da'quan Bailey-Brown at the SoMis 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 30INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:113% → 3%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
3.3%
Ty Keyes pass complete to Brad Dennis for 11 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+15
3.5%
KEYES, Ty pass to the right incomplete intended for ROBINSON, Antoine thrown to the TRY45. PENALTY TRY Personal Foul on CHOLOH, Will enforced 15 yards from the USM37 to the TRY48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
3.8%
Ty Keyes sacked by Javon Solomon for 0 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 20
OWN 42
0
3.2%
Ty Keyes pass intercepted return for no gain to the SoMis 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:41
Taylor Powell pass complete to Deyunkrea Lewis for 16 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q3 12:53
Taylor Powell pass complete to Jabre Barber for 17 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q4 5:49
Kimani Vidal run for 8 yds for a TD, (Brooks Buce KICK)
-6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com