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ECU

East Carolina 42 at Marshall 38

MRSH
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:24 · Jonn Young punt for 36 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior+8.7Home team on offense+10.1Score differential+3.5Garbage-time factor+1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:08: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 5 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +11.9 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 61%).
  2. TD · Q3 10:23: Rasheen Ali run for 49 yds for a TD, (Andrew Sanders KICK) — MRSH win probability +10.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:03: Grant Wells run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andrew Sanders KICK) — MRSH win probability +9.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:31: Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK) — ECU win probability +6.1 pts (now 13%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:47: Andrew Sanders 31 yd FG MISSED — MRSH win probability +5.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ECU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 1:33MRSH 4th & 19 at MRSH 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−0.7
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:20MRSH 4th & 7 at ECU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    74.8%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:16MRSH 4th & 6 at MRSH 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:10ECU 4th & 3 at ECU 25, down 3
    Close callPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:52ECU 4th & 11 at ECU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:21ECU 4th & 25 at MRSH 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:33MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:33ECU 4th & 3 at MRSH 46, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    19.9%−1.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:18ECU 4th & 2 at MRSH 9, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%−0.2
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−4.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:57ECU 4th & 2 at MRSH 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    28.8%−2.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−2.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:24ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:24ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:03ECU 4th & 12 at MRSH 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−1.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:54ECU 4th & 16 at ECU 19, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:04MRSH 4th & 2 at ECU 22, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−0.5
    72% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−3.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:47MRSH 4th & 5 at ECU 14, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−3.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:16MRSH 4th & 1 at ECU 24, up 13
    Close callWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%−0.2
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:13ECU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:20MRSH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:33ECU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:28MRSH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:31MRSH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:08ECU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:23MRSH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:03MRSH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:31ECU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 3:4771% → 70%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
71.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 2 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+11
70.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 11 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+4
71.5%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-15
71.7%
Wells,Grant pass complete to Gaines,Xavier for 1 yard loss to the MAR46 (Wilk,Teagan; Dourseau,Shawn) PENALTY MAR Chop Block (Salguero,Alex) 15 yards from MAR47 to MAR32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 25
OWN 32
0
70.9%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Corey GammageSimilar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 25
OWN 32
+13
70.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 13 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 12
OWN 45
-7
70.8%
Grant Wells sacked by Suirad Ware for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 38Similar
Q1 1:33
4TH & 19
OWN 38
0
69.5%
Robert Lefevre punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2FG
10 plays · 63 yds · 2:4073% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 6 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
72.9%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
72.9%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
72.9%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Talik KeatonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+49
72.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 49 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
72.9%
Rasheen Ali run for no gain to the ECaro 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
72.9%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
72.9%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Talik KeatonSimilar
Q1 12:20
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
72.8%
Andrew Sanders 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0727% → 29%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.7%
Keaton Mitchell run for no gain to the ECaro 25Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 5 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+20
72.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
50
0
72.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 10
50
+22
72.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 22 yds to the Marsh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
72.0%
Keaton Mitchell run for 1 yd to the Marsh 29Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+5
72.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 5 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+24
70.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 24 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5771% → 70%
Q1 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.0%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Talik KeatonSimilar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
70.9%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Corey GammageSimilar
Q1 8:16
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
70.2%
Robert Lefevre punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0029% → 30%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
70.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:4271% → 73%
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
70.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 7 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+1
71.2%
Sheldon Evans run for 1 yd to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 7:02
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+7
70.8%
Sheldon Evans run for 7 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
71.2%
Sheldon Evans run for 3 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 7
OPP 19
0
71.2%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
72.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 19 yds for a TD, (Andrew Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7Uncategorized
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.1%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Cory McCoy for 0 yards to the ECaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2329% → 28%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
71.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
71.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+3
71.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q1 0:10
4TH & 3
OWN 25
0
72.0%
Jonn Young punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Willie Johnson at the Marsh 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:0371% → 72%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
70.9%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
70.9%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Stone ScarcelleSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+14
70.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 14 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
71.8%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 2 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
71.8%
Grant Wells pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 96 yds · 1:2429% → 33%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
71.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 4 yds to the ECaro 8Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+4
71.4%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q2 12:33
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+88
66.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 88 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0566% → 72%
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
66.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 14 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
67.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the Marsh 37Similar
Q2 12:33
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+34
66.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Willie Johnson for 34 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
68.8%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+26
72.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 26 yds for a TD, (Andrew Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:3629% → 29%
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
70.4%
Ahlers,Holton pass incomplete to Johnson,C.J. broken up by Abraham,Micah PENALTY MAR Pass Interference (Abraham,Micah) 15 yards from ECU28 to ECU43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
69.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SavageSimilar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
69.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 11
OWN 42
0
70.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q2 8:52
4TH & 11
OWN 42
+9
70.8%
Jonn Young punt for 32 yds , Talik Keaton returns for 9 yds to the Marsh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:2170% → 79%
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+56
70.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 46 yds to the MARSHALL 19 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (Malik Fleming) to the ECaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
72.3%
Sheldon Evans run for 8 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
72.3%
Sheldon Evans run for no gain to the ECaro 1Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
78.9%
Rasheen Ali run for 1 yd for a TD, (Andrew Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 3:1022% → 21%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
78.0%
Tyler Snead run for 9 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
77.1%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
77.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 32 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
75.9%
Keaton Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Marsh 28Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
75.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 6
OPP 28
-10
76.6%
Ahlers,Holton pass complete to Snead,Tyler for 27 yards to the MAR01 (McCoy,Cory) PENALTY ECU Holding (Strother,Nishad) 10 yards from MAR28 to MAR38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 16
OPP 38
-9
77.8%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Steven Gilmore for a loss of 9 yards to the Marsh 47Similar
Q2 4:21
4TH & 25
OPP 47
0
79.2%
Jonn Young punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4879% → 78%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
78.7%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Corey GammageSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+6
78.6%
Sheldon Evans run for 6 yds to the Marsh 16Similar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 4
OWN 16
0
78.2%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 4
OWN 16
+9
78.1%
Robert Lefevre punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 47 , Tyler Snead returns for 9 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16TD
14 plays · 53 yds · 3:2522% → 34%
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
77.9%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+5
77.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 5 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 3
OPP 46
0
77.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:33
4TH & 3
OPP 46
+8
78.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 8 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
77.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+9
77.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 9 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q2 3:33
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+12
77.3%
Rahjai Harris run for 12 yds to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-7
77.3%
Holton Ahlers sacked for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 24Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 17
OPP 24
0
78.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 17
OPP 24
+15
80.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 15 yds to the Marsh 9Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 2
OPP 9
+4
78.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 4 yds to the Marsh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
66.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 5 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0870% → 70%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.2%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Corey GammageSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
70.0%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 38 yds · 3:0331% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
69.4%
Tyler Snead pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 6 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+24
69.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 24 yds to the Marsh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
66.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 2 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+5
66.6%
Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+1
66.5%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the Marsh 37Similar
Q3 11:57
4TH & 2
OPP 37
0
67.8%
Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the Marsh 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19TD
4 plays · 63 yds · 1:3471% → 83%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
70.8%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+8
71.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Devin Miller for 8 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
72.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 2 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+49
82.9%
Rasheen Ali run for 49 yds for a TD, (Andrew Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · -1 yds · 2:5919% → 17%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
81.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+12
81.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 12 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+3
81.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 3 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
81.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
82.7%
Jonn Young punt for 36 ydsSimilar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
82.7%
Jonn Young punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:0083% → 84%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
83.2%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 14 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
83.6%
Grant Wells pass complete to Shadeed Ahmed for 10 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
83.6%
Rasheen Ali run for 6 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 3:0718% → 16%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
81.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 9 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+3
80.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the ECaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
81.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+22
81.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 22 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
79.2%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
79.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-5
79.6%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Koby Cumberlander for a loss of 5 yards to the Marsh 48Similar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
83.7%
Jonn Young punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23TD
6 plays · 90 yds · 2:0083% → 95%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
82.8%
Rasheen Ali run for 9 yds to the Marsh 19Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+3
83.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the Marsh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
83.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 15 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+56
83.9%
Grant Wells pass complete to Sheldon Evans for 56 yds to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
85.1%
Sheldon Evans run for 1 yd to the ECaro 6Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
95.0%
Grant Wells run for 6 yds for a TD, (Andrew Sanders KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:096% → 6%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.8%
Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
93.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-8
94.2%
Holton Ahlers sacked for a loss of 8 yards to the ECaro 19Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
94.4%
Jonn Young punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Talik Keaton at the Marsh 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:5095% → 96%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
95.4%
PENALTY MAR False Start (Sartor,Kendrick) 5 yards from MAR42 to MAR37. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 15
OWN 37
+12
95.0%
Grant Wells pass complete to Talik Keaton for 12 yds to the Marsh 49Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+3
95.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 3 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+18
95.4%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 18 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
95.4%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
95.4%
Rasheen Ali run for no gain to the ECaro 26Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-5
95.3%
PENALTY MAR False Start (Gaines,Xavier) 5 yards from ECU26 to ECU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+9
95.3%
Grant Wells pass complete to Sheldon Evans for 9 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 2
OPP 22
0
96.4%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Talik KeatonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 26TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:335% → 13%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
95.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Keaton Mitchell for 6 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+7
94.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 7 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for no gain to the ECaro 35Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
95.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 7 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+27
95.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 12 yds to the MARSHALL 46 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Eli Neal) to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
94.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 6 yds to the Marsh 25Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+3
93.3%
Keaton Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Marsh 22Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+5
93.8%
Keaton Mitchell run for 5 yds to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+12
93.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 12 yds to the Marsh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Keaton MitchellSimilar
Q4 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Audie OmotoshoSimilar
Q4 7:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
87.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 27FG
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:3791% → 97%
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
91.1%
Xavier Gaines pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+29
90.9%
Rasheen Ali run for 29 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
92.0%
Rasheen Ali run for 21 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
92.0%
Sheldon Evans run for 2 yds to the ECaro 17Similar
Q4 7:24
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+1
92.0%
Sheldon Evans run for 1 yd to the ECaro 18Similar
Q4 7:24
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+4
91.7%
Rasheen Ali run for 4 yds to the ECaro 14Similar
Q4 4:47
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+31
96.9%
Andrew Sanders 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 28TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:166% → 6%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
94.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 8 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+25
93.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 25 yds to the Marsh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
92.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 15 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+20
92.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 20 yds to the Marsh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
92.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-15
92.0%
Ahlers,Holton pass complete to Omotosho,Audie for 11 yards to the MAR01, out of bounds PENALTY ECU Pass Interference (Omotosho,Audie) 15 yards from MAR12 to MAR27. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 25
OPP 27
+27
94.2%
Tyler Snead pass complete to Holton Ahlers for 27 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 29TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 1:365% → 6%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
94.6%
Keaton Mitchell run for 13 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
94.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+18
94.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 18 yds to the Marsh 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+19
93.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 19 yds to the Marsh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
93.8%
Ahlers,Holton pass incomplete to Johnson,C.J. PENALTY MAR Pass Interference (Gilmore,Steven) 1 yard from MAR03 to MAR02, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
93.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the Marsh 1Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.1%
Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 30INT
12 plays · 60 yds · 0:4999% → 99%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Rasheen Ali for 8 yds to the Marsh 33Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+34
98.5%
Grant Wells pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 34 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.8%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Corey GammageSimilar
Q4 0:41
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
98.7%
Grant Wells pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q4 0:41
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+9
98.7%
Grant Wells pass complete to Corey Gammage for 9 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q4 0:16
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+9
99.3%
Rasheen Ali run for 9 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct. (Jireh Wilson) to the ECaro 1Similar
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct. (Jireh Wilson) to the ECaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
97.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-97.8
TD · Q2 0:08
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Shane Calhoun for 5 yds for a TD, (Owen Daffer KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q3 10:23
Rasheen Ali run for 49 yds for a TD, (Andrew Sanders KICK)
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com