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SMU

SMU 39 at Louisiana Tech 37

LT
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Joe Aillet Stadium
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Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:49 · Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the LaTch 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior−22.8Home team on offense−1.9Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 5:25: Austin Kendall run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK) — LT win probability +22.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:24: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +22.8 pts (now 78%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 5:07: Marcus Williams Jr. 6 Yd pass from Austin Kendall (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — LT win probability +34.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:36: Jacob Barnes 47 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +15.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:00: Reggie Roberson Jr. 33 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai — SMU win probability +72.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 13:28LT 4th & 6 at SMU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:34SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:23LT 4th & 7 at LT 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:49SMU 4th & 1 at LT 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.9%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    66.7%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−4.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:17LT 4th & 10 at LT 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00SMU 4th & 9 at LT 11, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.5%−0.8
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.3%
    87% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−7.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:55SMU 4th & 6 at LT 6, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    48.6%−13.8
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:37SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 40, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 14:45LT 4th & 7 at LT 28, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−2.0
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:38SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 49, up 5
    Close callPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:04LT 4th & 8 at LT 45, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:20SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−4.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:18SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    34.7%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:36LT 4th & 16 at SMU 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−12.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    50.7%−27.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 4 of 5SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:22LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:13SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:49LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:30SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 12:09SMU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:30LT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:25LT Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:24SMU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:07LT Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    62.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:3221% → 22%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
20.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 14 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
20.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
20.8%
Austin Kendall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+10
20.8%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
20.8%
Austin Kendall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
20.8%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
20.8%
Austin Kendall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
21.6%
Cesar Barajas punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2PUNT
14 plays · 35 yds · 4:5478% → 76%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
21.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
21.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 3 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+3
21.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
21.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 6 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+2
21.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 2 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+3
21.5%
Tanner Mordecai run for 3 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
21.5%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
21.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+9
21.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Roderick Roberson for 9 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
21.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Roderick Daniels for 2 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-10
21.4%
MORDECAI, Tanner scrambles to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the SMU49, out of bounds. PENALTY SMU Holding on THOMAS, Jaylon enforced 10 yards from the SMU47 to the SMU37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 18
OWN 37
0
21.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
3RD & 18
OWN 37
+8
21.6%
Tyler Lavine run for 8 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
24.1%
Brendan Hall punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:1224% → 28%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
23.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-1
23.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 22Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+11
23.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 11 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
24.0%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+62
28.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Tre Harris for 62 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:0472% → 74%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
27.8%
Danny Gray run for 8 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+5
27.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
27.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Nolan Matthews-Harris for 3 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+9
27.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 9 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
27.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
27.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:17
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+12
27.6%
Tanner Mordecai run for 12 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
27.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Roderick Roberson for no gain to the LaTch 41Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+41
25.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 41 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5027% → 27%
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.9%
Greg Garner run for 3 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q1 3:13
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
26.9%
Austin Kendall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
26.4%
Austin Kendall pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:23
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
26.7%
Cesar Barajas punt for 38 yds, downed at the SMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6DOWNS
13 plays · 65 yds · 4:3473% → 70%
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
26.6%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 7 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+7
25.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 7 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
25.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 11 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
25.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Austin Upshaw for 4 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q1 2:23
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+3
25.8%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+5
26.8%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+23
26.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 23 yds to the LaTch 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
26.3%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the LaTch 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
26.3%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the LaTch 1Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
27.7%
Tyler Lavine run for no gain to the LaTch 1Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
28.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the LaTch 1Similar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
29.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (Smoke Harris) to the LaTch 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7TD
15 plays · 99 yds · 6:0030% → 45%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
29.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the LaTch 2Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
29.4%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the LaTch 1Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+6
29.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 6 yds to the LaTch 7Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+9
28.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Kyle Maxwell for 9 yds to the LaTch 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
30.0%
KENDALL, Austin pass up the middle complete for 69 yards to HARRIS, Tre caught at the LAT35 and advanced to the SMU15 (CROMARTIE, Chace). PENALTY LAT Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on WHITE, Dakota enforced 5 yards from the LAT16 to the LAT11 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 15
OWN 11
0
29.9%
Austin Kendall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 15
OWN 11
+14
29.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 14 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+6
29.6%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 6 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
30.2%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 2 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+17
30.1%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
50
0
31.6%
Austin Kendall pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
50
+15
31.3%
SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
32.1%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Tre Harris for 8 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+4
32.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 4 yds to the SMU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
45.0%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 11 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1959% → 66%
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
41.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
40.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Roderick Roberson for 5 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
40.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 11 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
39.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds to the LaTch 44Similar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+20
38.3%
Tanner Mordecai run for 20 yds to the LaTch 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
37.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:49
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+15
37.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Roderick Roberson for 15 yds to the LaTch 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
37.3%
Tre Siggers run for 2 yds to the LaTch 7Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
39.9%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass to the left complete for 7 yards to MATTHEWS-HARRIS, Nolan caught at the LAT8 and advanced to the LAT0, TOUCHDOWN SMU, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY SMU Holding on MORRIS, Beau enforced 10 yards from the LAT7 to the LAT17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 17
+17
34.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 17 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 0 yds · 1:1339% → 39%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
39.1%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 20Similar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
38.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 3 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
38.8%
Austin Kendall sacked for 0 yards to the LaTch 17Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 18
OWN 17
-5
38.1%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 12Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 23
OWN 12
+13
38.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Marcus Williams Jr. for 13 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.7%
Cesar Barajas punt for 37 yds , Jordan Kerley returns for 5 yds to the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 2:1763% → 70%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
36.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 18 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
35.7%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+13
35.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tre Siggers for 13 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
34.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
34.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 5 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 5
OPP 18
+6
35.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 6 yds to the LaTch 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
34.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the LaTch 8Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+1
34.4%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the LaTch 7Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 5
OPP 7
-4
37.0%
Tanner Mordecai run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 11Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+29
29.9%
Blake Mazza 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 78 yds · 2:4268% → 80%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+18
32.0%
Tre Siggers run for 18 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
30.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tommy McIntyre for 9 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+3
29.5%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
29.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Roderick Roberson for 9 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+5
29.3%
Danny Gray run for 5 yds to the LaTch 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
28.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 16 yds to the LaTch 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
20.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 18 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3924% → 41%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.6%
Austin Kendall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+34
23.5%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 34 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+27
26.0%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Bub Means for 27 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
27.2%
Harlan Dixon run for 3 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+11
40.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Tre Harris for 11 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:2471% → 75%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+24
29.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 24 yds to the LaTch 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
29.0%
Tre Siggers run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 5Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
29.0%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the LaTch 1Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
30.3%
SMU Penalty, Illegal Substitution (TEAM) to the LaTch 6Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
30.4%
Tanner Mordecai run for no gain to the LaTch 6Similar
Q3 7:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
25.4%
Blake Mazza 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:3027% → 54%
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
26.7%
Greg Garner run for 3 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
26.9%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Greg Garner for 4 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q3 7:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+16
26.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Bub Means for 16 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+48
29.6%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Carson Rieder for 48 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
31.8%
Greg Garner run for 1 yd to the SMU 3Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.8%
Austin Kendall run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jacob Barnes KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4553% → 52%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
46.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 3 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
46.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 5 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+4
46.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
45.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
44.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+4
46.4%
Tanner Mordecai run for 4 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 2:37
4TH & 3
OWN 40
0
48.5%
Brendan Hall punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Smoke Harris at the LaTch 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16INT
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:1950% → 56%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
49.9%
Greg Garner run for 2 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+8
49.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Griffin Hebert for 8 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
50.4%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ar'mani Johnson) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
50
0
54.6%
Austin Kendall pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
50
0
55.5%
Austin Kendall pass intercepted return for no gain to the LaTch 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5458% → 78%
Q3 1:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
41.8%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
42.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the LaTch 5Similar
Q3 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
21.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3928% → 25%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 3 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
27.5%
Austin Kendall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
25.7%
Austin Kendall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
24.7%
Cesar Barajas punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:0776% → 76%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
23.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 11 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
22.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
22.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 6
OWN 49
0
22.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
23.8%
Brendan Hall punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:3424% → 23%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
23.7%
Austin Kendall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+10
23.4%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Tre Harris for 10 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
23.9%
Kevin Dominique run for no gain to the LaTch 30Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
23.5%
Austin Kendall run for 13 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
26.0%
Harlan Dixon run for 2 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
26.2%
Austin Kendall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:38
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
24.1%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Griffin Hebert for no gain to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
23.1%
Cesar Barajas punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:4475% → 74%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
24.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 15 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
23.3%
Tre Siggers run for 4 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
22.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 6
OWN 28
-4
23.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tre Siggers for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
25.7%
Brendan Hall punt for 46 yds, downed at the LaTch 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 22TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 4:1325% → 68%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
24.9%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 5 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
26.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for no gain to the LaTch 35Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+6
24.6%
Austin Kendall run for 6 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
27.2%
Greg Garner run for 4 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+17
27.8%
Greg Garner run for 17 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
29.2%
Austin Kendall pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+32
28.8%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Samuel Emilus for 32 yds to the SMU 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
33.2%
Harlan Dixon run for no gain to the SMU 6Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
68.1%
Marcus Williams Jr. 6 Yd pass from Austin Kendall (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4344% → 41%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
55.8%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
54.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 7
OWN 30
-15
57.5%
MORDECAI, Tanner pass up the middle complete for 13 yards to CALCATERRA, Grant caught at the SMU42 and advanced to the SMU43, End of Play. PENALTY SMU Pass Interference on CALCATERRA, Grant enforced 15 yards to the SMU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 22
OWN 15
+19
59.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 19 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 3:18
4TH & 3
OWN 34
+1
58.8%
Tanner Mordecai run for 1 yd to the SMU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 24FG
11 plays · 6 yds · 2:4271% → 93%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
71.3%
Marcus Williams Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+11
71.0%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Tre Harris for 11 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
77.5%
WILLIAMS JR., Marcus rush to the right for a gain of 23 yards to the SMU0, TOUCHDOWN LAT, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY LAT Holding on WHITE, Dakota enforced 10 yards from the SMU23 to the SMU33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 20
OPP 33
-3
76.8%
Austin Kendall run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 36Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 21
OPP 34
+5
70.7%
Austin Kendall pass complete to Smoke Harris for 5 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 23
OPP 36
-5
79.3%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, False Start (Biron Rossell) to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 28
OPP 41
+7
79.9%
Austin Kendall run for 7 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 0:36
4TH & 16
OPP 29
+47
92.8%
Jacob Barnes 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 73 yds · 0:3619% → 96%
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
81.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 11 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
79.8%
Tanner Mordecai run for 15 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
77.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 14 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
4.2%
Reggie Roberson Jr. 33 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:00
Reggie Roberson Jr. 33 Yd pass from Tanner Mordecai
-72.8
TD · Q4 5:07
Marcus Williams Jr. 6 Yd pass from Austin Kendall (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
+34.9
TD · Q3 0:24
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)
-22.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com