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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 13 at UTSA 27

UTSA
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of GameTD-3.5UTSA 96.1%Chase Cunningham pass complete toJarrin Pierce for 16 yds for a TD,(Zeke Rankin KICK)AWAY 13 - HOME 27 · Q4 0:57
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:57 · Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 16 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 186Pregame prior+0.6Home team on offense+23.0Score differential+10.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.1Garbage-time factor+5.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:01: Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 33 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +1.5 pts (now 83%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:22: Hunter Duplessis 30 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +0.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:08: Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 12 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +8.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:56: Lorenzo Dantzler 3 Yd Fumble Return (Hunter Duplessis Kick) — UTSA win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:57: Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 16 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK) — MTSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MTSU made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 13:44MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28UTSA 4th & 14 at MTSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.5%
    42% to make
    Punt
    77.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:14MTSU 4th & 1 at UTSA 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    22.1%−0.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    22.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:49MTSU 4th & 11 at UTSA 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:05MTSU 4th & 18 at MTSU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:17UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.5%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:17MTSU 4th & 14 at MTSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:22UTSA 4th & 8 at MTSU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.5%
    90% to make
    Punt
    74.3%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:19MTSU 4th & 16 at MTSU 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:50UTSA 4th & 1 at MTSU 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    80.8%−2.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−3.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:26MTSU 4th & 9 at UTSA 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−0.7
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:33MTSU 4th & 17 at MTSU 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−2.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:54UTSA 4th & 12 at MTSU 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    94.3%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    94.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:00MTSU 4th & 4 at MTSU 14, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:13MTSU 4th & 12 at MTSU 23, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:01UTSA 4th & 3 at MTSU 21, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    98.3%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:30MTSU 4th & 3 at MTSU 32, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:18UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 15, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:20UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 29, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:17UTSA 4th & 8 at MTSU 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−4.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MTSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q3 10:08UTSA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 12:56UTSA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 3:28MTSU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    0.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.8%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 0:57MTSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1617% → 17%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Amir RasulSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.2%
Amir Rasul run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+1
83.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 1 yd to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 13:44
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
82.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2FG
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:1683% → 82%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
83.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+3
83.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 3 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+13
83.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
83.0%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-4
83.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the MTnSt 23 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive Holding (Zakhari Franklin) to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 14
OPP 36
0
82.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 14
OPP 36
0
82.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 14
OPP 36
+52
82.3%
Hunter Duplessis 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1418% → 18%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
82.4%
Martell Pettaway run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
82.3%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 4 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
82.3%
Martell Pettaway run for 8 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
82.2%
Martell Pettaway run for 1 yd to the TexSA 44Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
82.2%
Amir Rasul run for no gain to the TexSA 44Similar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
81.8%
Amir Rasul run for no gain to the TexSA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
82.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+8
82.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 8 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0818% → 19%
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
81.6%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 11 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
81.3%
Amir Rasul run for 12 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
81.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Izaiah GathingsSimilar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
81.2%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 1 yd to the TexSA 47Similar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 11
OPP 47
0
81.4%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Martell PettawaySimilar
Q1 5:49
4TH & 11
OPP 47
0
81.3%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:4881% → 83%
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+22
81.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 22 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
81.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
81.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 5 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
81.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+1
81.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 1 yd to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+13
81.6%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 13 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+33
83.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 33 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:5618% → 18%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
82.1%
Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 28 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
81.3%
Martell Pettaway run for 1 yd to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 9
OPP 46
0
81.2%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 9
OPP 46
-9
81.6%
Bailey Hockman sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q1 1:05
4TH & 18
OWN 45
0
82.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4882% → 81%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
81.9%
Frank Harris run for 2 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+6
81.7%
Brenden Brady run for 6 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+3
81.5%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
80.9%
Lucas Dean punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 2:0019% → 18%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
81.2%
Amir Rasul run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+3
81.0%
Amir Rasul run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q2 14:17
3RD & 9
OWN 31
-5
81.8%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Clarence Hicks for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 14
OWN 26
+11
82.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 44 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 11 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5584% → 84%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
84.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 8 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+20
84.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 20 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
84.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+10
84.6%
Harris,Frank pass incomplete to Franklin,Zakhari PENALTY MTS Holding (Riley,Quincy) 10 yards from MTS27 to MTS17, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-15
84.8%
Harris,Frank pass complete to Brady,Brenden for 17 yards to the MTS00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 10:20 PENALTY UTS Face Mask (Rolfe,Brandon) 15 yards from MTS17 to MTS32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 25
OPP 32
-2
84.6%
Frank Harris sacked by Jordan Ferguson for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 27
OPP 34
0
84.2%
Frank Harris pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:2121% → 21%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
79.5%
Bailey Hockman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
79.6%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
Q2 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+15
79.6%
Hockman,Bailey pass intercepted by Wisdom,Rashad at UTS00, Touchback PENALTY UTS Pass Interference (Woolen,Tariq) 15 yards from UTS19 to UTS04, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.4%
Bailey Hockman pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12FG
20 plays · 72 yds · 6:3985% → 86%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
84.6%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the TexSA 20Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
84.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 15 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
84.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 9 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 1
OWN 44
-5
85.4%
PENALTY UTS False Start (Davis,Kevin) 5 yards from UTS44 to UTS39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
85.3%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+9
84.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 9 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
85.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+12
86.3%
Frank Harris run for 12 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
86.3%
Brenden Brady pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+11
86.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 11 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
86.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+9
86.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 1
OPP 14
+5
85.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
85.9%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
85.9%
Frank Harris sacked by Cody Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-5
85.6%
PENALTY UTS False Start (Dishman,Dan) 5 yards from MTS12 to MTS17. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+9
85.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 9 yds to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q2 2:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+30
86.0%
Hunter Duplessis 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:0315% → 12%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
84.9%
Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-11
85.1%
Bailey Hockman sacked by Trumane Bell II for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 21
OWN 24
+5
86.0%
Amir Rasul run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 1:19
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
87.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 64 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 9 yds · 1:1988% → 87%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
88.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+5
88.2%
Harris,Frank pass incomplete to Franklin,Zakhari PENALTY MTS Offside (Ferguson,Jordan) 5 yards from UTS10 to UTS15. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OWN 15
+1
86.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15TD
21 plays · 76 yds · 4:4584% → 94%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
84.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+3
84.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 3 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+20
83.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 20 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
85.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
85.4%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+7
84.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 7 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
84.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
84.8%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q3 13:22
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+7
84.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 11:50
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+6
84.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
85.5%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+8
85.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
85.5%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+3
85.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+12
93.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 12 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 2:429% → 8%
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
90.7%
Mike DiLiello run for no gain to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
91.4%
Amir Rasul run for no gain to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+5
91.5%
Cunningham,Chase pass incomplete to Gathings,Izaiah PENALTY UTS Offside (Wiley,Charles) 5 yards from MTS30 to MTS35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+15
90.8%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:08
1ST & 10
50
0
89.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Jarrin PierceSimilar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 10
50
+1
90.4%
Martell Pettaway run for 1 yd to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 10:08
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
90.5%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Izaiah GathingsSimilar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
92.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17INT
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:1496% → 97%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
96.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 8 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+15
96.1%
Harris,Frank pass incomplete to Clark,De'Corian PENALTY MTS Pass Interference (Ross,Teldrick) 15 yards from UTS19 to UTS34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
96.1%
Brenden Brady run for 2 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+18
96.2%
Frank Harris run for 18 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
96.4%
Brenden Brady run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 7:26
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
96.3%
Brenden Brady run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+14
96.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 14 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
96.8%
Frank Harris pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:397% → 6%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.3%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Martell PettawaySimilar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
93.4%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Martell PettawaySimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
93.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Martell Pettaway for 5 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 5
OWN 25
-12
93.5%
PENALTY MTS UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Marshall,Jimmy) 12 yards from MTS25 to MTS13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:33
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+3
94.1%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 57 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 3 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:3997% → 98%
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
96.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+23
96.6%
Frank Harris run for 23 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
96.8%
Frank Harris run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 14
OPP 44
+2
96.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
Q3 4:33
3RD & 12
OPP 42
0
96.7%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q3 1:54
4TH & 12
OPP 42
0
97.6%
Lucas Dean punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:545% → 5%
Q3 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
94.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 5 yds to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 5
OWN 13
0
94.7%
Frank Peasant run for no gain to the MTnSt 13Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 5
OWN 13
-5
94.8%
PENALTY MTS False Start (Pierce,Jarrin) 5 yards from MTS13 to MTS08. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+6
95.0%
Chase Cunningham run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 14Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 14
+22
95.4%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 41 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 22 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21FUMBLE RETURN TD
3 plays · -17 yds · 0:214% → 1%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.8%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Izaiah GathingsSimilar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
95.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to DJ England-ChisolmSimilar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+3
98.9%
Lorenzo Dantzler 3 Yd Fumble Return (Hunter Duplessis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:431% → 1%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
98.8%
Chase Cunningham sacked by Charles Wiley for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+5
98.9%
Martell Pettaway run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
98.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Yusuf AliSimilar
Q4 11:13
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+33
99.0%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 52 yds , Sheldon Jones returns for 33 yds to the MTnSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23FG
10 plays · 21 yds · 3:12100% → 100%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.6%
Brenden Brady run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+8
99.6%
Brenden Brady run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+8
99.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 8 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.7%
Brenden Brady run for no gain to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
99.7%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Cade StoeverSimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+7
99.7%
Josh Adkins pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 7 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q4 8:01
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+38
99.9%
Hunter Duplessis 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:310% → 0%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.9%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Izaiah GathingsSimilar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+6
99.9%
Chase Cunningham run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q4 6:30
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Kyle Ulbrich punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 15 , Sheldon Jones returns for no gain to the TexSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
99.9%
B.J. Daniels run for 6 yds to the TexSA 9Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 16
OWN 9
+6
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Tre'Von Bradley for 6 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tre'Von BradleySimilar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Lucas Dean punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Gregory Grate Jr. at the MTnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:500% → 1%
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
99.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 20 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.9%
Micaleus Elder run for 2 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+13
99.9%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to JaMichael Thompson for 13 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.5%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 23 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:08100% → 100%
Q4 3:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.8%
B.J. Daniels run for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 3:28
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tre'Von BradleySimilar
Q4 3:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
99.8%
Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tre'Von BradleySimilar
Q4 2:20
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.8%
Lucas Dean punt for 45 yds , Gregory Grate Jr. returns for 5 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 1:230% → 4%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
99.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to JaMichael Thompson for 7 yds to the MTnSt 38Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 3
OWN 38
0
99.6%
Chase Cunningham pass incomplete to Izaiah GathingsSimilar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+46
99.6%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Izaiah Gathings for 46 yds to the TexSA 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
96.1%
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 16 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 29END OF GAME
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:54100% → 100%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
99.5%
Frank Harris run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
-2
99.5%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 30FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:4398% → 98%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to De'Corian ClarkSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+9
98.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 24
+7
97.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
98.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
98.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-KelloggSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
98.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Oscar CardenasSimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+31
98.4%
Hunter Duplessis 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:08
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 12 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q4 0:57
Chase Cunningham pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 16 yds for a TD, (Zeke Rankin KICK)
-3.5
TD · Q4 12:56
Lorenzo Dantzler 3 Yd Fumble Return (Hunter Duplessis Kick)
+3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com