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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadLAM aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreLAM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:01 · Bailey Giffen punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 12:04: Sheldon Jones 76 Yd Punt Return (Hunter Duplessis Kick) — LAM win probability +0.2 pts (now 2%) (top driver: LAM has the ball).
- FG · Q1 8:18: Hunter Duplessis 46 Yd Field Goal — LAM win probability +0.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:04: Sincere McCormick 18 Yd Run (Hunter Duplessis Kick) — UTSA win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:14: Charles Wiley 8 Yd Run (Hunter Duplessis Kick) — UTSA win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:55: Sincere McCormick 6 Yd Run (Hunter Duplessis Kick) — UTSA win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5LAM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 12:04LAM 4th & 10 at LAM 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q1 9:30LAM 4th & 12 at LAM 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.1%average punt
- Q1 8:18UTSA 4th & 8 at LAM 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.8%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call97.9%60% to makePunt97.5%−0.3average punt
- Q1 5:05LAM 4th & 26 at LAM 5, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q1 3:11UTSA 4th & 4 at LAM 29, up 10Close callKicked a field goal · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.4%48% to convertField goalTheir call97.3%−<0.158% to makePunt97.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 1:13LAM 4th & 1 at LAM 34, down 13Close callPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 6:03LAM 4th & 9 at LAM 47, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q2 6:03LAM 4th & 9 at LAM 47, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q3 12:01LAM 4th & 5 at LAM 30, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 7:29UTSA 4th & 13 at LAM 24, up 48Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.120% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%68% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q3 1:19UTSA 4th & 9 at LAM 36, up 51Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%32% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.142% to makePunt99.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 9:43LAM 4th & 14 at LAM 48, down 58Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:58UTSA 4th & 6 at LAM 6, up 58Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%91% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 3:03LAM 4th & 6 at LAM 24, down 61Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 12:04UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:04UTSA Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:14UTSA Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:55UTSA Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:42UTSA Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:06UTSA Touchdown, up 57 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.1%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartLAMDrive 1PUNT TD7 plays · 10 yds · 2:561% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 2PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 2:282% → 2%
Q1 11:58
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-5
98.5%
Johnson,Marcellus rush for 0 yards to the LAM25 (Feaster,Denzel) PENALTY LAM Illegal Formation 5 yards from LAM25 to LAM20. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3FG6 plays · 29 yds · 1:1298% → 98%
LAMDrive 4PUNT7 plays · -16 yds · 3:062% → 2%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
98.2%
Jalen Dummett pass complete to Marcellus Johnson for 9 yds to the Lamar 12Similar
Q1 8:11
3RD & 17
OWN 14
+6
98.2%
Jalen Dummett pass complete to Marcellus Johnson for 6 yds to the Lamar 20Similar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 11
OWN 20
-10
98.2%
PENALTY LAM UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Banks,Kirkland) 10 yards from LAM20 to LAM10. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5FG8 plays · 22 yds · 1:5498% → 98%
Q1 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
98.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 4 yds to the Lamar 47Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+5
98.0%
Harris,Frank pass incomplete to Cephus,Joshua PENALTY LAM Offside 5 yards from LAM47 to LAM42. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+7
98.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 7 yds to the Lamar 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
98.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for no gain to the Lamar 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:582% → 2%
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
98.0%
Jones,James rush for 3 yards gain to the LAM28 (Feaster,Denzel) PENALTY LAM Illegal Shift 5 yards from LAM25 to LAM20. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+3
98.1%
Jalen Dummett pass complete to Jaylon Jackson for 3 yds to the Lamar 23Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
98.1%
Jalen Dummett pass complete to Jeremy Davis for 11 yds to the Lamar 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7TD6 plays · 74 yds · 2:0998% → 99%
Q1 1:13
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+10
98.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 10 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+31
98.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 31 yds to the Lamar 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+4
98.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 4 yds to the Lamar 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 8FUMBLE TD10 plays · 19 yds · 4:501% → 1%
Q2 11:33
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+8
98.6%
Jalen Dummett pass complete to Jeremy Davis for 8 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 7 yds · 3:111% → 1%
Q2 7:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
99.4%
Kirkland Banks run for 5 yds to the Lamar 36 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Defensive Holding (Corey Mayfield Jr.) to the Lamar 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
99.4%
Bailey Giffen punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10TD12 plays · 65 yds · 5:0899% → 100%
Q2 6:03
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+6
99.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 6 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 6:03
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
99.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 4 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Brenden Brady for 5 yds to the Lamar 47Similar
Q2 6:03
2ND & 11
OPP 35
+20
99.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 20 yds to the Lamar 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for no gain to the Lamar 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12TD6 plays · 58 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+13
99.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Leroy Watson for 13 yds to the Lamar 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
99.8%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 13 yds to the Lamar 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
99.8%
Zakhari Franklin 32 Yd pass from Josh Adkins (Hunter Duplessis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q3 12:01
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
99.8%
Bailey Giffen punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14FG9 plays · 36 yds · 4:32100% → 100%
LAMDrive 15FUMBLE7 plays · 34 yds · 2:510% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16TD11 plays · 59 yds · 5:32100% → 100%
Q3 4:38
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+19
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Oscar Cardenas for 19 yds to the Lamar 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Kaedric Cobbs for 2 yds to the Lamar 39Similar
Q3 4:38
2ND & 12
OPP 39
+7
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 7 yds to the Lamar 32Similar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+16
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 16 yds to the Lamar 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
99.9%
Josh Adkins pass complete to Julon Williams for no gain to the Lamar 16Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+16
99.9%
De'Corian Clark 16 Yd pass from Josh Adkins (Hunter Duplessis Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 23 yds · 4:230% → 0%
Q4 14:06
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+14
100.0%
Jalen Dummett pass complete to Dawud Shorts for 14 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18FG11 plays · 79 yds · 4:45100% → 100%
Q4 9:43
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+60
99.9%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Cade Stoever for 60 yds to the Lamar 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
100.0%
Lott,Jaylon rush for 5 yards gain to the LAM00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 06:39 PENALTY UTS Illegal Formation 5 yards from LAM05 to LAM10. NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LAMDrive 19PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:440% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20END OF GAME6 plays · 5 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q4 3:03
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+9
100.0%
Eddie Lee Marburger pass complete to Justin Rodriguez for 9 yds to the Lamar 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:04
Sincere McCormick 18 Yd Run (Hunter Duplessis Kick)
+0.6
TD · Q2 9:14
Charles Wiley 8 Yd Run (Hunter Duplessis Kick)
+0.6
TD · Q1 12:04
Sheldon Jones 76 Yd Punt Return (Hunter Duplessis Kick)
-0.2