2021 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2021 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:59 · Joshua Sloan punt for 40 yds , Latrell Caples returns for no gain to the BoiSt 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 11:33: George Holani 10 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick) — BOIS win probability +2.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:15: Andrew Van Buren 3 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick) — BOIS win probability +3.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:43: Stefan Cobbs 61 Yd pass from Hank Bachmeier (Jonah Dalmas Kick) — BOIS win probability +1.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- FG · Q2 3:00: Jonah Dalmas 27 Yd Field Goal — BOIS win probability +2.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:14: Andrew Van Buren 1 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick) — BOIS win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UTEP made the numbers' call on 2 of 7
- Q1 10:36UTEP 4th & 4 at BOIS 16, tiedClose callKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.2%46% to convertField goalTheir call7.1%−<0.181% to makePunt6.7%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:08BOIS 4th & 9 at UTEP 22, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snapGo for it92.3%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call92.4%72% to makePunt92.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 6:42UTEP 4th & 5 at UTEP 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snapGo for it8.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.1%average punt
- Q2 13:26UTEP 4th & 3 at BOIS 3, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 9.3% before the snapGo for it9.4%44% to convertField goalTheir call9.1%−0.393% to makePunt7.6%−1.8average punt
- Q2 8:53UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 22, down 18Close callPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 3:00BOIS 4th & 7 at UTEP 10, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snapGo for it93.9%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call94.0%88% to makePunt92.1%−2.0average punt
- Q3 7:10BOIS 4th & 1 at UTEP 1, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%59% to convertField goal99.5%−0.294% to makePunt99.0%−0.7average punt
- Q3 4:19BOIS 4th & 3 at UTEP 12, up 35Close callKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%50% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%−<0.186% to makePunt99.3%−0.5average punt
- Q3 0:06UTEP 4th & 3 at BOIS 46, down 38Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%52% to convertField goal0.0%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:27BOIS 4th & 2 at UTEP 38, up 38Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%57% to convertField goal99.8%−0.138% to makePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 7:43UTEP 4th & 4 at UTEP 9, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.146% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 4:20BOIS 4th & 8 at UTEP 17, up 38Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%80% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 1:59UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 34, down 41Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 6:42BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.5%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:33BOIS Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.5%97% to makeGo for two91.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:15BOIS Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.9%97% to makeGo for two94.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:43BOIS Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:21UTEP Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call5.1%97% to makeGo for two5.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:14BOIS Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 13:50BOIS Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTEPDrive 1FG9 plays · 59 yds · 4:246% → 7%
BOISDrive 2FG7 plays · 58 yds · 1:2193% → 93%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
92.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 11 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
92.6%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass to the right incomplete intended for COBBS, Stefan thrown to the TEP35. PENALTY TEP Pass Interference on NEIL JR., Walter enforced 15 yards from the BSU31 to the BSU46 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+31
92.8%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 31 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3PUNT TD5 plays · 17 yds · 2:268% → 7%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.4%
HARDISON, Gavin pass to the right incomplete dropped by TUPOU, James thrown to the TEP23. PENALTY TEP Personal Foul on HENRY, Zuri enforced half the distance from the goal, 12 yards from the TEP25 to the TEP13 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 19
OWN 16
+14
92.5%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 14 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4FG18 plays · 72 yds · 8:167% → 11%
Q1 6:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
92.6%
HARDISON, Gavin pass to the left incomplete intended for GARRETT, Justin thrown to the TEP45. PENALTY BSU Pass Interference on REED, Markel enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards from the TEP39 to the TEP39 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+31
92.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 31 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+8
92.4%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 8 yds to the BoiSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+7
92.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 7 yds to the BoiSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 5TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5390% → 93%
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
89.6%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 19 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
90.1%
Cyrus Habibi-Likio run for 10 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+36
90.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 36 yds to the UTEP 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6FUMBLE1 play · -9 yds · 0:008% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 7TD1 play · 3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:176% → 6%
BOISDrive 9TD1 play · 61 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:225% → 6%
Q2 8:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.7%
HARDISON, Gavin pass to the right incomplete intended for COWING, Jacob thrown to the TEP34; QB hurried by CALLAHAN, Michael. PENALTY BSU Face mask on LEBEAUF, Tyric enforced 15 yards from the TEP25 to the TEP40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
94.4%
Reynaldo Flores run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 11FG10 plays · 69 yds · 3:1595% → 97%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+29
94.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 29 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 10
50
+15
94.6%
BACHMEIER, Hank pass to the left incomplete intended for BOWENS, Billy thrown to the TEP20. PENALTY TEP Pass Interference on RICHARDSON, Torey enforced 15 yards from the BSU50 to the TEP35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+22
94.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 22 yds to the UTEP 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12INT3 plays · 4 yds · 0:423% → 3%
BOISDrive 13FUMBLE1 play · 20 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
97.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 20 yds to the UTEP 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14INT6 plays · 49 yds · 1:204% → 4%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
96.5%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 24 yds to the BoiSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+15
96.2%
HARDISON, Gavin pass up the middle incomplete intended for GARRETT, Justin broken up by REED, Markel at the BSU8. PENALTY BSU Roughing the Passer on IRWIN, Shane enforced 15 yards from the BSU32 to the BSU17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
96.1%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Trent Thompson for 11 yds to the BoiSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
96.0%
Gavin Hardison pass intercepted return for no gain to the UTEP 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15TD5 plays · 48 yds · 0:4398% → 99%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
97.5%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to CT Thomas for 4 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 12
50
0
97.3%
UTEP Penalty, Holding Roughing the Passer on MCIVER-BROWN, Dresden enforced half the distance from the goal (Walter Neil) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Riley Smith for 7 yds to the UTEP 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17TD3 plays · 38 yds · 1:0299% → 99%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
99.3%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Octavius Evans for 9 yds to the UTEP 29Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+6
99.2%
Hank Bachmeier pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 6 yds to the UTEP 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.3%
Tyneil Hopper 23 Yd pass from Hank Bachmeier (Jonah Dalmas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18FUMBLE6 plays · 45 yds · 2:371% → 1%
Q3 13:50
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+15
99.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, Roughing the Passer on WASHINGTON, Demitri enforced (Zion Washington) to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
99.4%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 12 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+14
99.5%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 14 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 13 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
UTEPDrive 20INT2 plays · 1 yds · 0:220% → 0%
BOISDrive 21DOWNS4 plays · 5 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22FUMBLE3 plays · 42 yds · 0:590% → 0%
BOISDrive 23FG4 plays · 7 yds · 1:52100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 4:040% → 0%
BOISDrive 25PUNT12 plays · 57 yds · 5:33100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:440% → 0%
Q4 7:43
4TH & 4
OWN 9
0
99.9%
Joshua Sloan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by CT Thomas at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 27FG8 plays · 33 yds · 3:23100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 28PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 2:210% → 0%
Q4 1:59
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Joshua Sloan punt for 40 yds , Latrell Caples returns for no gain to the BoiSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:15
Andrew Van Buren 3 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)
+3
FG · Q2 3:00
Jonah Dalmas 27 Yd Field Goal
+2.6
TD · Q2 11:33
George Holani 10 Yd Run (Jonah Dalmas Kick)
+2.1