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UNT

North Texas 12 at SMU 35

SMU
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:50 · Austin Aune pass incomplete to Bryson Jackson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.5+21.30−21.3−42.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 199Pregame prior+0.8Home team on offense+31.7Score differential+24.3Garbage-time factor+8.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+8.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+3.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:50: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 62 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +8.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:13: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 58 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +7.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:12: Jace Ruder pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — UNT win probability +12.0 pts (now 26%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 5:01: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 29 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +8.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:17: Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 19 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK) — SMU win probability +5.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 13:47UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:29UNT 4th & 2 at SMU 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.3%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:20SMU 4th & 3 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:24UNT 4th & 6 at SMU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:20SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 49, down 3
    Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:52UNT 4th & 5 at SMU 5, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:46SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 32, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:16UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:46SMU 4th & 4 at midfield, down 6
    Close callPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:15UNT 4th & 28 at UNT 4, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−2.8
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:31UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 34, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:41UNT 4th & 15 at UNT 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:27SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 19, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 13:50SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 34, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 12:08UNT 4th & 1 at UNT 34, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:13UNT 4th & 2 at SMU 44, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%−3.4
    27% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−1.9
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:39SMU 4th & 4 at UNT 38, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.2%−1.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    88.1%−1.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:51UNT 4th & 1 at SMU 14, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−2.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:07UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 38, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:50UNT 4th & 2 at SMU 19, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UNT made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q2 3:50SMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:13SMU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:12UNT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:01SMU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:17SMU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:37SMU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:138% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
92.5%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Tommy BushSimilar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
92.3%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2INT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:4592% → 92%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
92.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 7 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+6
92.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Reggie Roberson for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
50
0
92.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 10
50
+6
92.3%
Tanner Mordecai run for 6 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+5
92.3%
Tanner Mordecai run for 5 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
92.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 5
OPP 34
-5
92.3%
PENALTY SMU False Start (Roberson, Jr.,Reggie) 5 yards from UNT34 to UNT39. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-15
91.7%
SMU Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tre Siggers) to the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:339% → 9%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
91.3%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Jason PirtleSimilar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+22
91.3%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Tommy Bush for 22 yds to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
91.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the SMU 4Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
91.3%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Jyaire ShorterSimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
91.4%
Jace Ruder run for 2 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q1 9:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
90.9%
Ethan Mooney 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0491% → 90%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
90.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+10
90.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 10 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
91.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 2 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
91.1%
Tre Siggers run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 3
50
0
91.1%
Tanner Mordecai pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 3
50
0
90.3%
Matt Fraanje punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:5610% → 11%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
90.2%
Loronzo Thompson run for 31 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
89.9%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+6
89.9%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jake Roberts for 6 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 13
OPP 41
-10
90.0%
Ruder,Jace rush for 3 yards gain to the SMU38, End Of Play PENALTY UNT Holding (Roberts,Jake) 10 yards from SMU41 to UNT49. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 23
OWN 49
+3
90.1%
Jace Ruder run for 3 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 20
OPP 48
+14
90.1%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 14 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
89.9%
run for 3 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 4:24
4TH & 6
OPP 34
0
89.0%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Bryson JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:0489% → 88%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
88.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 10 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
89.3%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the SMU 45Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+4
89.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Reggie Roberson for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
88.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Jr. Reggie RobersonSimilar
Q1 2:20
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
87.9%
Matt Fraanje punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7FG
11 plays · 81 yds · 3:2812% → 16%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
88.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+8
87.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 23 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (DeAndre Torrey) to the NoTex 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+45
87.8%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 45 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
87.1%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 7 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-10
87.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+20
87.2%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 20 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
85.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
85.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the SMU 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
85.9%
PENALTY UNT False Start 5 yards from SMU04 to SMU09. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
86.0%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Bryson Jackson for 4 yds to the SMU 5Similar
Q2 13:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
83.9%
Ethan Mooney 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:0685% → 84%
Q2 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
84.7%
Tre Siggers run for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
85.2%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 13:52
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
84.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
83.7%
Brendan Hall punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:3016% → 17%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.6%
Jace Ruder run for 11 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
83.1%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Jyaire ShorterSimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
82.9%
Jace Ruder pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:2685% → 85%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
84.9%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Face Mask (8 yards) (Makyle Sanders) to the NoTex 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
84.9%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the NoTex 3Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
84.7%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for no gain to the NoTex 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:3417% → 18%
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
83.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the NoTex 13Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+7
83.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 7 yds to the NoTex 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
83.0%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for no gain to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
83.1%
Isaiah Johnson run for 3 yds to the NoTex 23Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
83.2%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
81.6%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:3081% → 79%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+20
81.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Reggie Roberson for 20 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ethan Mooney) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
81.4%
Tre Siggers run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 4
50
0
81.8%
Tre Siggers run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 4
50
0
81.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 4
50
0
79.4%
Matt Fraanje punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -18 yds · 1:3122% → 22%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
78.2%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 3 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 28
OWN 4
0
79.0%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Jyaire ShorterSimilar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+21
77.7%
run for 21 yds to the NoTex 4Similar
Q2 6:15
4TH & 28
OWN 4
0
78.1%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jordan Kerley at the NoTex 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:2979% → 79%
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
79.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tyler Lavine for 1 yd to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
78.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass interceptedSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 11
OPP 38
0
78.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:1524% → 25%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+25
76.5%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 25 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
75.4%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
75.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
75.8%
Ruder,Jace pass incomplete to Jackson,Bryson PENALTY SMU Pass Interference offsetting UNT Holding offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
75.8%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
75.3%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 63 yds · 0:4176% → 85%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
76.2%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+62
85.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 62 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0317% → 16%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
83.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 38Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
83.0%
Jace Ruder run for 6 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 15
OWN 32
0
84.4%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
84.2%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 52 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 12 yds · 1:1484% → 82%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
83.9%
Tanner Mordecai run for 1 yd to the SMU 18Similar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+1
83.8%
Tre Siggers run for 1 yd to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 2:41
3RD & 8
OWN 19
0
83.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 8
OWN 19
0
82.0%
Brendan Hall punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19END OF HALF
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2718% → 17%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
82.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 34Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
82.5%
Jace Ruder run for 6 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-5
81.5%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Mose,Manase) 5 yards from UNT40 to UNT35. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 35
-1
82.9%
Jace Ruder sacked by Gary Wiley for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0683% → 82%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
83.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 5 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
83.8%
Tyler Lavine run for 1 yd to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
82.9%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Grant CalcaterraSimilar
Q3 13:50
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
81.7%
Brendan Hall punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Roderic Burns at the NoTex 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4218% → 18%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
81.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
81.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
81.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the NoTex 34Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
81.6%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 0:5581% → 90%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
81.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 9 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+14
82.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 14 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
89.7%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Danny Gray for 58 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23TD
15 plays · 78 yds · 4:5812% → 26%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
88.0%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 6 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+4
87.5%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 4 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
87.6%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jace Ruder) to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+14
88.2%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 14 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
86.8%
Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
87.2%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 3
50
+10
86.1%
Jace Ruder pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 10 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
86.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
85.3%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Loronzo Thompson for 1 yd to the SMU 31Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+4
86.2%
Isaiah Johnson run for 4 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
85.3%
Jace Ruder run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 9
OPP 26
-5
85.5%
PENALTY UNT False Start (Mose,Manase) 5 yards from SMU26 to SMU31. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+8
86.5%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jake Roberts for 8 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+23
74.4%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 1:0679% → 91%
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
78.5%
Mordecai,Tanner pass incomplete to Gray,Danny PENALTY UNT Pass Interference (Davis, Jr.,John) 15 yards from SMU23 to SMU38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
79.5%
Tanner Mordecai run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
50
+18
81.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Tommy McIntyre for 18 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
81.9%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+29
90.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 29 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:4811% → 12%
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
89.0%
Ruder,Jace pass complete to Burns,Roderic for 7 yards to the UNT32 (Denbow,Trevor), out of bounds PENALTY UNT Pass Interference (Jackson,Bryson) 12 yards from UNT25 to UNT13. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
89.1%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Bryson JacksonSimilar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+6
89.3%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 6 yds to the NoTex 19Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+29
89.9%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for 29 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
87.9%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q3 5:01
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
88.2%
Isaiah Johnson run for 1 yd to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+7
88.4%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 7 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 2:13
4TH & 2
OPP 44
0
88.1%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jyaire Shorter for no gain to the SMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:3490% → 89%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
90.4%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 12 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
90.5%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 4 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
90.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Grant CalcaterraSimilar
Q3 2:13
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+2
90.0%
Tanner Mordecai run for 2 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q3 0:39
4TH & 4
OPP 38
0
89.2%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Danny GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 27INT
4 plays · 46 yds · 1:1212% → 15%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
87.9%
Isaiah Johnson run for 2 yds to the NoTex 40Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+42
87.7%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 42 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
85.5%
Jace Ruder run for 2 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
85.4%
Jace Ruder pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 3:1089% → 97%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.6%
Tanner Mordecai pass incomplete to Ulysses Bentley IVSimilar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
88.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Reggie Roberson for 4 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+26
88.0%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
50
+8
89.9%
Tre Siggers run for 8 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 2
OPP 42
-10
90.1%
Mordecai,Tanner pass complete to Kerley,Jordan for 4 yards to the UNT38 (Sanders,Makyle), out of bounds PENALTY SMU Holding (Daniels, Jr.,Roderick) 10 yards from UNT42 to SMU48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:27
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+7
89.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jordan Kerley for 7 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 14:27
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+5
89.6%
Tanner Mordecai run for 5 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
91.8%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 21 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
97.3%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 19 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 29DOWNS
13 plays · 60 yds · 3:264% → 4%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.9%
Jace Ruder run for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
95.6%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 7 yds to the NoTex 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
95.6%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Bryson JacksonSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
95.7%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
50
0
95.5%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Ikaika RagsdaleSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
50
+10
95.5%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jake Roberts for 10 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
95.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+15
95.5%
Ruder,Jace pass incomplete to Burns,Roderic broken up by Cromartie,Chace PENALTY SMU Pass Interference (Cromartie,Chace) 15 yards from SMU38 to SMU23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
94.9%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 7 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 3
OPP 16
0
94.4%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Damon Ward Jr.Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+2
94.8%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 2 yds to the SMU 14Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 1
OPP 14
+1
96.1%
Isaiah Johnson run for 1 yd to the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 30TD
1 play · 85 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
99.3%
Ulysses Bentley IV run for 85 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 31PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 1:241% → 1%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.3%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Ikaika Ragsdale for no gain to the NoTex 23Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+11
99.3%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Roderic Burns for 11 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
99.2%
Jace Ruder pass complete to Jason Pirtle for 9 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 7:31
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
99.2%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Detraveon BrownSimilar
Q4 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
99.2%
Jace Ruder pass incomplete to Bryson JacksonSimilar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 1
OWN 43
-5
99.2%
PENALTY UNT Delay Of Game 5 yards from UNT43 to UNT38. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
99.4%
Bernardo Rodriguez punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 32FUMBLE
4 plays · 35 yds · 0:0099% → 100%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
99.4%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Jr. Reggie Roberson for 8 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+18
99.4%
Tre Siggers run for 18 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.5%
Tre Siggers run for 3 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 6:07
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+4
99.5%
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 33DOWNS
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:511% → 1%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.5%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Roderic BurnsSimilar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+10
99.5%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 10 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
99.5%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 6 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+8
99.4%
Austin Aune pass complete to Roderic Burns for 8 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
99.4%
Ikaika Ragsdale run for 9 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+2
99.3%
Austin Aune run for 2 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+1
99.4%
Austin Aune run for 1 yd to the SMU 19Similar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 2
OPP 19
0
99.5%
Austin Aune pass incomplete to Bryson JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 34END OF 4TH QUARTER
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
99.7%
run for 1 yd to the SMU 18Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 18
+1
99.7%
run for 1 yd to the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:12
Jace Ruder pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-12
TD · Q2 3:50
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Rashee Rice for 62 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q3 5:01
Tanner Mordecai pass complete to Grant Calcaterra for 29 yds for a TD, (Blake Mazza KICK)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com