2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreGASO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:56 · Logan Wright run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 12 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:19: Logan Wright 22 Yd Run (Britton Williams PAT failed) — GASO win probability +4.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:45: John Mitchell 19 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Aaron Shahriari Kick) — FAU win probability +15.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:28: Je'Quan Burton 50 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Aaron Shahriari Kick) — FAU win probability +13.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:34: John Mitchell 22 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Aaron Shahriari Kick) — FAU win probability +7.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:50: Lajohntay Wester 31 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Aaron Shahriari Kick) — FAU win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4GASO made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 9:01FAU 4th & 12 at GASO 42, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.2% before the snapGo for it67.2%−0.124% to convertField goal67.2%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call67.3%average punt
- Q2 14:56GASO 4th & 1 at FAU 14, up 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call36.6%71% to convertField goal35.5%−1.184% to makePunt31.8%−4.9average punt
- Q2 0:00GASO 4th & 1 at FAU 14, up 5Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call53.8%71% to convertField goal50.7%−3.184% to makePunt41.3%−12.5average punt
- Q2 6:26FAU 4th & 26 at FAU 33, down 5Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snapGo for it53.5%−4.47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call57.9%average punt
- Q2 1:06GASO 4th & 13 at GASO 22, down 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snapGo for it28.7%−2.419% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.1%average punt
- Q3 13:18GASO 4th & 1 at GASO 34, down 4Close callPunted · 31.0% before the snapGo for it31.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.9%−1.0average punt
- Q3 8:58GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 48, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snapGo for it18.5%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call18.6%average punt
- Q4 0:00GASO 4th & 5 at FAU 5, down 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.4%33% to convertField goal0.4%−<0.192% to makePunt0.1%−0.3average punt
- Q4 7:14FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 49, up 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%average punt
- Q4 0:00FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 44, up 25Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.170% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.9%average punt
- Q4 3:30GASO 4th & 7 at GASO 45, down 25Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q2 1:45FAU Touchdown, up 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call68.1%97% to makeGo for two68.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:28FAU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.2%97% to makeGo for two81.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:34FAU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.0%97% to makeGo for two93.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:50FAU Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:17FAU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartFAUDrive 1DOWNS6 plays · 31 yds · 3:1269% → 69%
Q1 3:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
69.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Javion Posey for 3 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2PUNT29 plays · 39 yds · 14:5574% → 69%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
74.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 10 yds to the FlAtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+14
74.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 14 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:55
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+18
74.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 18 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
67.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 10 yds to the FlAtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+14
66.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 14 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
68.2%
Johnny Ford run for a loss of 6 yards to the FlAtl 38 Johnny Ford fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Johnny FordSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+18
66.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brandon Robinson for 18 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 3TD25 plays · 95 yds · 9:0128% → 35%
Q1 9:01
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+15
72.0%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
71.5%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Amare Jones for 5 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+22
67.0%
Amare Jones run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 14 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Teja Young) to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
65.6%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Amare Jones for 5 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4DOWNS17 plays · 31 yds · 0:0433% → 34%
GASODrive 5FUMBLE20 plays · 47 yds · 10:0338% → 51%
Q2 10:03
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-2
62.3%
Sam Kenerson run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 11 Sam Kenerson fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Jordan HelmSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+20
65.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Zaire Mitchell-Paden for 20 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-15
65.6%
DAVIDSON, Malcolm rush to the right for a loss of 1 yard to the FAU30 (DEVINE, Parker;JOSUE, Benz). PENALTY FAU Block below the waist on NOEL, Desmond enforced 15 yards from the FAU31 to the FAU16 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 25
OWN 16
+33
65.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Larry McCammon III for 33 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
66.9%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, False Start (Zaire Mitchell-Paden) to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 15
OWN 44
0
65.5%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Justin Ellis and C.J. Wright for 0 yards to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 21
OWN 38
-5
64.2%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, False Start (N'Kosi Perry) to the FlAtl 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6PUNT12 plays · 22 yds · 6:2661% → 55%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+20
56.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Zaire Mitchell-Paden for 20 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-15
57.0%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, illegal block (Desmond Noel) to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 25
OWN 16
+33
56.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Larry McCammon III for 33 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
59.6%
pass incomplete to D'Marcus Adams FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
59.2%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Zaire Mitchell-Paden) to the FlAtl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7PUNT13 plays · 3 yds · 5:1063% → 56%
Q2 5:10
4TH & 7
OWN 13
+13
62.6%
Anthony Beck II punt for 48 yds , Lajohntay Wester returns for 13 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
63.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 4 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
63.2%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jalen Jackson) to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
63.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 16 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
64.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Larry McCammon III for 5 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8TD12 plays · 48 yds · 1:4572% → 73%
Q2 1:45
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+19
71.8%
John Mitchell 19 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Aaron Shahriari Kick)Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
72.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 4 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
72.1%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jalen Jackson) to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
72.7%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 16 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
73.4%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Larry McCammon III for 5 yds to the GeoSo 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 9PUNT10 plays · -3 yds · 1:0629% → 29%
Q2 1:06
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+47
71.4%
Anthony Beck II punt for 47 yds FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, roughing kicker (Akileis Leroy) to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
70.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to John Mitchell for 5 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
72.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 16 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+29
72.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 29 yds to the GeoSo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
71.2%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding (Aaron Dowdell) to the GeoSo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10FG9 plays · 60 yds · 0:0070% → 71%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
70.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to John Mitchell for 5 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+13
69.1%
Johnny Ford run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 46 Johnny Ford fumbled, recovered by FlAtl N'Kosi Perry for a 1ST down N'Kosi Perry run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
72.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 16 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+29
72.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 29 yds to the GeoSo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
71.1%
Sam Kenerson pass complete to Amare Jones for 2 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 13:1829% → 29%
FAUDrive 12TD7 plays · 74 yds · 11:2885% → 90%
Q3 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
82.3%
Sam Kenerson pass complete to Amare Jones for 18 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13PUNT5 plays · 23 yds · 8:5817% → 13%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
86.9%
Sam Kenerson pass complete to Amare Jones for 18 yds to the GeoSo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14TD11 plays · 87 yds · 4:3495% → 96%
Q3 4:34
3RD & 15
OPP 22
+22
94.9%
John Mitchell 22 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Aaron Shahriari Kick)Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
96.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to D'Marcus Adams for 9 yds to the FlAtl 22Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+14
96.2%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Lajohntay Wester for 14 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
96.5%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to for 14 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 17
-5
96.4%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the GeoSo 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15INT2 plays · 1 yds · 3:466% → 5%
FAUDrive 16TD5 plays · 50 yds · 1:5099% → 99%
GASODrive 17FUMBLE10 plays · 59 yds · 15:001% → 0%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
98.9%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Emil Smith for 11 yds to the GeoSo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
98.9%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Gerald Green for 14 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
98.9%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Gerald Green for 8 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+11
98.8%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Gerald Green for 11 yds to the FlAtl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
98.8%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Gerald Green for 4 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+7
98.8%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Derwin Burgess Jr. for 7 yds to the FlAtl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
99.7%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Beau Johnson for 2 yds to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
99.8%
Cam Ransom run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 2 Cam Ransom fumbled, recovered by GeoSoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18Uncategorized13 plays · 44 yds · 7:14100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 6
OWN 6
0
99.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Je'Quan Burton, broken up by Justin BirdsongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 19DOWNS11 plays · 29 yds · 3:300% → 0%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+5
99.8%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Gerald Green for 5 yds to the GeoSo 11Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+8
99.8%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Amare Jones for 8 yds to the GeoSo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.8%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Derwin Burgess Jr., broken up by Korel SmithSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 19
+10
99.7%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Jjay Mcafee for 10 yds to the GeoSo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
99.8%
Cam Ransom pass complete to Gerald Green for 13 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
99.8%
Cam Ransom pass incomplete to Gerald Green, broken up by Ahman RossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20TD7 plays · 35 yds · 1:17100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
100.0%
Nick Tronti pass incomplete to Lajohntay Wester, broken up by Tyler BrideSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:45
John Mitchell 19 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Aaron Shahriari Kick)
+15.9
TD · Q3 11:28
Je'Quan Burton 50 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Aaron Shahriari Kick)
+13.3
TD · Q3 4:34
John Mitchell 22 Yd pass from N'Kosi Perry (Aaron Shahriari Kick)
+7.8