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TXST

Texas State 23 at Florida International 17

FIU
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · FIU Stadium
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Win probability · FIU
modelFIU aheadTXST aheadconfidence bandkey playFIU scoreTXST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:12 · Tommy Heatherly punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 191Pregame prior+0.1Home team on offense+3.6Score differential−1.2Garbage-time factor−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.3Time remaining−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 2:55: Tommy Heatherly kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — TXST win probability +7.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:06: Tyrese Chambers 22 Yd pass from Max Bortenschlager (Chase Gabriel Kick) — FIU win probability +10.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: One-score game).
  3. TD · Q3 13:04: Rivaldo Fairweather 34 Yd pass from Max Bortenschlager (Chase Gabriel Kick) — FIU win probability +10.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:09: Brock Sturges 1 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick) — TXST win probability +26.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Brock Sturges 11 Yd Run — TXST win probability +31.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TXST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FIU made the numbers' call on 6 of 13TXST made the numbers' call on 17 of 20
  1. Q1 9:55FIU 4th & 20 at FIU 15, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:55FIU 4th & 20 at FIU 15, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:05TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 33, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:05TXST 4th & 8 at TXST 33, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:43FIU 4th & 6 at FIU 46, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 7:43TXST 4th & 1 at TXST 44, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:03TXST 4th & 6 at midfield, up 8
    Close callPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q1 2:03TXST 4th & 6 at midfield, up 8
    Close callPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q1 0:41FIU 4th & 2 at FIU 28, down 8
    Close callPunted · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.6%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 14:54TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 14:54TXST 4th & 13 at TXST 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  12. Q2 8:30TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 13, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  13. Q2 8:30TXST 4th & 3 at TXST 13, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.2%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  14. Q2 7:08FIU 4th & 9 at TXST 44, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  15. Q2 7:08FIU 4th & 9 at TXST 44, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    42.7%−1.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  16. Q2 2:10TXST 4th & 5 at FIU 31, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    58.2%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 10:12TXST 4th & 26 at TXST 39, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−4.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  18. Q3 10:12TXST 4th & 26 at TXST 39, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−4.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  19. Q3 6:22FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 28, up 5
    Close callPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%−0.8
    average punt
  20. Q3 6:22FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 28, up 5
    Close callPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%−0.8
    average punt
  21. Q3 5:22TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  22. Q3 5:22TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 25, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  23. Q3 2:55FIU 4th & 1 at TXST 1, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.2%−5.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−20.1
    average punt
  24. Q3 0:46TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  25. Q3 0:46TXST 4th & 6 at TXST 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  26. Q4 6:25FIU 4th & 14 at TXST 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%−4.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    51.4%−4.4
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  27. Q4 4:38TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−5.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  28. Q4 4:38TXST 4th & 10 at TXST 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−5.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  29. Q4 1:57FIU 4th & 16 at TXST 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−4.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%−0.4
    average punt
  30. Q4 1:57FIU 4th & 16 at TXST 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−4.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    51.7%
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.3%−0.4
    average punt
  31. Q4 0:35TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−17.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  32. Q4 0:35TXST 4th & 14 at TXST 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−17.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  33. Q4 0:12FIU 4th & 5 at TXST 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TXST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 12:14TXST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:06FIU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:04FIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:09TXST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TXSTDrive 1TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 2:4030% → 31%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
70.5%
Calvin Hill run for 6 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+3
70.5%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 3 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+12
70.5%
Calvin Hill run for 12 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
70.5%
Calvin Hill run for 20 yds to the FlaIn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
70.5%
Brady McBride run for 17 yds to the FlaIn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
70.5%
Caleb Twyford run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 17Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
69.0%
Caleb Twyford 17 Yd pass from Brady McBride (Seth Keller Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 2:1969% → 67%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.0%
D'vonte Price run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q1 12:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
69.0%
D'vonte Price run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-15
68.9%
BORTENSCHLAGER, Max pass up the middle complete for 45 yards to FAIRWEATHER, Rivaldo caught at the FIU35 and advanced to the TSU25 (MASK, DeJordan). PENALTY FIU Tripping enforced 15 yards from the FIU30 to the FIU15 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
68.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+2
67.3%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 46 yds for a 1ST down , Ashtyn Hawkins returns for 2 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+2
67.3%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 46 yds for a 1ST down , Ashtyn Hawkins returns for 2 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5032% → 33%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
67.6%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the TexSt 33Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
67.6%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 8
OWN 33
0
67.8%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+6
67.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds , Bryce Singleton returns for 6 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 8
OWN 33
+6
67.5%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds , Bryce Singleton returns for 6 yds to the FlaIn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:2267% → 66%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
67.3%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 12 yds to the FlaIn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
67.6%
D'vonte Price run for 4 yds to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
67.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 6
OWN 46
0
67.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
66.2%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 5PUNT
14 plays · 45 yds · 5:4034% → 38%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
66.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 5 yds to the TexSt 10Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 10
-1
66.3%
Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 9Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+7
66.5%
Brady McBride run for 7 yds to the TexSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
66.2%
Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+14
66.1%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 14 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
66.0%
Brock Sturges run for 5 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
65.7%
Brock Sturges run for 4 yds to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
65.8%
Brock Sturges run for no gain to the TexSt 44Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
66.0%
Jahmyl Jeter run for 2 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
65.6%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
65.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 6
50
0
65.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Caleb Twyford for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 6
50
0
62.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 6
50
0
62.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2262% → 61%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
62.1%
Shaun Peterson Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 22Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
62.1%
Shaun Peterson Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
62.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:41
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
60.7%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 41 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:4739% → 38%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
61.2%
Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
60.9%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-7
60.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Caleb Twyford for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSt 28Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
62.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bryce Singleton at the FlaIn 29Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 13
OWN 28
0
62.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bryce Singleton at the FlaIn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 8FUMBLE
10 plays · 65 yds · 4:1561% → 60%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
60.8%
D'vonte Price run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+23
60.9%
D'vonte Price run for 23 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
61.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass incomplete pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 46 ydsSimilar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
61.5%
D'vonte Price run for 6 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+14
61.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 14 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
62.4%
D'vonte Price run for 1 yd to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+19
62.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 19 yds to the TexSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
62.4%
Shaun Peterson Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 4Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
62.4%
Shaun Peterson Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSt 2Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-4
59.8%
D'vonte Price run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:0942% → 43%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
57.9%
Calvin Hill run for 3 yds to the TexSt 9Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 7
OWN 9
-1
58.0%
Calvin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 8Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 8
OWN 8
+5
58.6%
Brady McBride run for 5 yds to the TexSt 13Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 3
OWN 13
+1
57.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 33 yds , Rishard Dames returns for 1 yd to the TexSt 45Similar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 3
OWN 13
+1
57.4%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 33 yds , Rishard Dames returns for 1 yd to the TexSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2258% → 53%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
57.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 2 yds to the TexSt 43Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+4
57.8%
D'vonte Price run for 4 yds to the TexSt 39Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
57.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:30
4TH & 4
OPP 39
-5
56.3%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Delay Of Game (Tommy Heatherly) to the TexSt 44Similar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
53.1%
punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 11Similar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
53.1%
punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 11FG
12 plays · 58 yds · 7:0847% → 57%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
53.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 14 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
53.0%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSt 16Similar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 19
OWN 16
+5
53.4%
Brady McBride run for 5 yds to the TexSt 21Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+10
53.6%
MCBRIDE, Brady sacked for a loss of 7 yards at the TSU14 (JACQUES-LOUIS, Rocky). PENALTY FIU Holding on TURNER, Josh enforced 10 yards from the TSU21 to the TSU31 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
52.6%
Brady McBride run for 6 yds to the TexSt 37Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+12
51.9%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 12 yds to the TexSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
51.0%
Brady McBride run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+2
50.7%
Calvin Hill run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 5
OPP 31
0
51.2%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the FlaIn 31Similar
Q2 2:10
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+48
48.3%
Seth Keller 48 Yd Field Goal Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+5
44.1%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
43.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 10 yds to the FlaIn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 12TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:0448% → 60%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
48.0%
Lexington Joseph run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
48.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
46.8%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (D.C. Williams) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
51.8%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+9
51.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 9 yds to the TexSt 25Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+8
48.4%
Lexington Joseph run for 8 yds to the TexSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
50.0%
Lexington Joseph run for 5 yds to the TexSt 12Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 15
OPP 22
0
48.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 5
OPP 12
-10
49.3%
BORTENSCHLAGER, Max scrambles to the right for a gain of 4 yards to the TSU8, out of bounds. PENALTY FIU Holding on MANE, Api enforced 10 yards from the TSU12 to the TSU22 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 15
OPP 22
+22
59.7%
Tyrese Chambers 22 Yd pass from Max Bortenschlager (Chase Gabriel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 1:5059% → 73%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
59.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+10
58.9%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Defensive Holding (TEAM) to the FlaIn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
59.4%
D'vonte Price run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+6
61.2%
D'vonte Price run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
61.7%
BORTENSCHLAGER, Max pass to the left incomplete dropped by SINGLETON, Bryce thrown to the TSU20. PENALTY TSU Pass Interference on MILLS, Chris enforced 15 yards from the FIU41 to the TSU44 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
62.7%
D'vonte Price run for 10 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
73.0%
Rivaldo Fairweather 34 Yd pass from Max Bortenschlager (Chase Gabriel Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 2:4329% → 28%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
70.7%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+19
70.8%
Brady McBride run for 19 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
68.6%
Calvin Hill run for 5 yds to the TexSt 48Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+7
67.7%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the FlaIn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
67.3%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
67.5%
HAWKINS, Ashtyn rush to the left for a gain of 9 yards to the FIU36 (JACKSON, Daniel). PENALTY TSU Holding on BARBEE, Marcell declined TSU Holding on CAILLOUET, Seth enforced 10 yards from the FIU45 to the TSU45 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 20
OWN 45
0
70.1%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 20
OWN 45
0
70.8%
Brady McBride sacked by Davon Strickland for 0 yards to the TexSt 39Similar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 26
OWN 39
+51
72.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bryce Singleton) to the FlaIn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 26
OWN 39
+51
72.2%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 41 yds for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Bryce Singleton) to the FlaIn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:5072% → 72%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
72.1%
D'vonte Price run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 16Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+2
72.1%
D'vonte Price run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 18Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+3
71.0%
D'vonte Price run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
72.9%
D'vonte Price run for 3 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 7
OWN 24
0
73.0%
Max Bortenschlager run for no gain to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 7
OWN 24
+4
71.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 4 yds to the FlaIn 28Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+46
71.5%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 46 yds , Ashtyn Hawkins returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 25Similar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+46
71.5%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 46 yds , Ashtyn Hawkins returns for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0029% → 27%
Q3 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.6%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 6 yds to the TexSt 31Similar
Q3 6:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
70.6%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, Illegal Formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+22
73.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds , Bryce Singleton returns for 22 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+22
73.0%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 44 yds , Bryce Singleton returns for 22 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 18FG
5 plays · 46 yds · 2:2776% → 80%
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+38
76.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 38 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
76.9%
Shaun Peterson Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSt 5Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.9%
Shaun Peterson Jr. run for no gain to the TexSt 5Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
75.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Rivaldo Fairweather for 4 yds to the TexSt 1Similar
Q3 2:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
80.4%
Chase Gabriel 18 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0923% → 21%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.9%
Brock Sturges run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30Similar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
76.0%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for 11 yds to the TexSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
75.3%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
75.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Drue Jackson for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 1
50
-5
73.9%
Jahmyl Jeter run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 45Similar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
79.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bryce Singleton at the FlaIn 12Similar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
79.3%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Bryce Singleton at the FlaIn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:1483% → 87%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
83.2%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Nate Jefferson for 10 yds to the FlaIn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
83.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
84.4%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 5 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+20
83.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to D'vonte Price for 20 yds to the FlaIn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
86.5%
D'vonte Price run for 15 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
86.5%
D'vonte Price run for 15 yds to the TexSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 21TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 4:2322% → 50%
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
77.7%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
77.9%
Brock Sturges run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+10
78.4%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
50
-2
75.3%
Brady McBride pass complete to Marcell Barbee for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 48Similar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 12
OWN 48
-5
77.6%
TEXAS STATE Penalty, False Start (Liam Dobson) to the TexSt 43Similar
Q4 14:32
2ND & 17
OWN 43
+12
78.8%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 12 yds to the FlaIn 45Similar
Q4 14:32
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+7
75.8%
Brady McBride run for 7 yds to the FlaIn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+36
78.7%
Brady McBride pass complete to Javen Banks for 36 yds to the FlaIn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
76.5%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
76.5%
Brock Sturges run for 1 yd to the FlaIn 1Similar
Q4 10:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.2%
Brock Sturges 1 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 3:3760% → 57%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
59.8%
D'vonte Price run for 6 yds to the FlaIn 21Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+2
60.7%
D'vonte Price run for 2 yds to the FlaIn 23Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+5
58.9%
Lexington Joseph run for 5 yds to the FlaIn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
60.7%
BORTENSCHLAGER, Max pass to the right incomplete intended for SINGLETON, Bryce thrown to the TSU32. PENALTY TSU Pass Interference on LOVETT III, Michael enforced 15 yards from the FIU28 to the FIU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
64.1%
BORTENSCHLAGER, Max pass to the left incomplete intended for CHAMBERS, Tyrese broken up by WILLIAMS, DC at the TSU12. PENALTY TSU Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, DC enforced 15 yards from the FIU43 to the TSU42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
65.7%
Lexington Joseph run for 2 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
65.7%
BORTENSCHLAGER, Max pass to the left incomplete intended for SINGLETON, Bryce thrown to the TSU4. PENALTY TSU Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, DC FIU Holding on MANE, Api , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 8
OPP 40
-1
65.7%
Lexington Joseph run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 41Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 9
OPP 41
0
64.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 9
OPP 41
-5
59.6%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Delay Of Game (Tommy Heatherly) to the TexSt 46Similar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 14
OPP 46
+1
56.9%
punt for 43 yds , Ashtyn Hawkins returns for 1 yd to the TexSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4746% → 43%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
53.9%
Calvin Hill run for 7 yds to the TexSt 11Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+8
53.5%
Calvin Hill run for 8 yds to the TexSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
53.0%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
53.5%
Calvin Hill run for no gain to the TexSt 19Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
55.6%
Brady McBride pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
56.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Singleton at the FlaIn 45Similar
Q4 4:38
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
56.9%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Bryce Singleton at the FlaIn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 2:4163% → 55%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
63.4%
D'vonte Price run for 6 yds to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
64.9%
D'vonte Price run for no gain to the TexSt 49Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+15
63.7%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Tyrese Chambers for 15 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
66.4%
PRICE, D'vonte rush up the middle for a gain of 18 yards to the TSU16 (LEFEGED JR., Troy). PENALTY FIU Holding on FAIRWEATHER, Rivaldo enforced 10 yards from the TSU34 to the TSU44 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 20
OPP 44
+4
62.4%
Max Bortenschlager run for 4 yds to the TexSt 40Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 16
OPP 40
0
62.0%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 16
OPP 40
0
59.9%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 16
OPP 40
0
55.3%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q4 1:57
4TH & 16
OPP 40
0
55.3%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:2249% → 44%
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
51.2%
Brady McBride pass complete to Chandler Speights for 11 yds to the TexSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
50.4%
Brady McBride run for 4 yds to the TexSt 35Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
48.8%
Brady McBride sacked by Daniel Jackson for 0 yards to the TexSt 30Similar
Q4 0:44
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
53.2%
Brady McBride sacked by Daniel Jackson for 0 yards to the TexSt 27Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
55.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 25 yds, downed at the FlaIn 48Similar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
55.6%
Seamus O'Kelly punt for 25 yds, downed at the FlaIn 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:2364% → 59%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
63.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
62.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass complete to Nate Jefferson for 5 yds to the TexSt 47Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
63.5%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:12
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
59.2%
Tommy Heatherly punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ashtyn Hawkins at the TexSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 28FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
65.6%
Max Bortenschlager pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
63.3%
Max Bortenschlager sacked for 0 yards to the TexSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSTDrive 29TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0059% → 90%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
41.1%
D'vonte Price run for 3 yds to the TexSt 22 Brock Sturges run for 14 yds to the FlaIn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
9.8%
Brock Sturges 11 Yd Run Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Brock Sturges 11 Yd Run
-31.3
TD · Q4 10:09
Brock Sturges 1 Yd Run (Seth Keller Kick)
-26.3
TD · Q2 0:06
Tyrese Chambers 22 Yd pass from Max Bortenschlager (Chase Gabriel Kick)
+10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com