2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadGWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreGWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:43 · Austin McKay 35 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 8:31: Austin McKay 45 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +1.8 pts (now 92%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:32: Shadrick Byrd run for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +2.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:42: Calvin Camp run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +4.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:47: Narii Gaither run for 14 yds for a TD (Austin McKay KICK) — GWEB win probability +4.8 pts (now 10%) (top driver: GWEB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:43: Chris Reynolds pass complete to Jairus Mack for 11 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +5.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6GWEB made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
- Q1 11:30GWEB 4th & 16 at GWEB 19, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snapGo for it7.9%−0.214% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.0%average punt
- Q1 8:31GWEB 4th & 15 at CLT 28, down 6Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.5% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.117% to convertField goalTheir call8.5%60% to makePunt8.1%−0.3average punt
- Q1 0:00GWEB 4th & 4 at CLT 33, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.6%48% to convertField goal11.4%−0.249% to makePunt11.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 12:12GWEB 4th & 2 at CLT 14, down 9Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call10.1%56% to convertField goal9.8%−0.384% to makePunt8.1%−2.0average punt
- Q2 1:43GWEB 4th & 6 at CLT 18, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.1% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.238% to convertField goalTheir call6.8%79% to makePunt4.1%−2.8average punt
- Q2 0:06CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 40, up 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.3%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.6%average punt
- Q3 14:17GWEB 4th & 8 at GWEB 27, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q3 14:09GWEB 4th & 13 at GWEB 22, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.2%−1.419% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q3 0:00CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 45, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 9:23GWEB 4th & 5 at GWEB 30, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q3 7:53CLT 4th & 10 at CLT 25, up 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
- Q3 2:33GWEB 4th & 3 at CLT 26, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%52% to convertField goal1.6%−0.164% to makePunt0.5%−1.2average punt
- Q3 0:00GWEB 4th & 3 at CLT 47, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:46CLT 4th & 11 at GWEB 12, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.122% to convertField goalTheir call98.9%86% to makePunt98.2%−0.7average punt
- Q4 11:51GWEB 4th & 8 at GWEB 27, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 9:03CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 42, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 6:40GWEB 4th & 8 at GWEB 20, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 1:21CLT 4th & 14 at GWEB 20, up 28Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−0.117% to convertField goal100.0%75% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3GWEB made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 1:32CLT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call91.0%97% to makeGo for two91.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:42CLT Touchdown, up 15 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick92.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call92.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:47GWEB Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call9.6%97% to makeGo for two9.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:43CLT Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call94.2%97% to makeGo for two94.2%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLTDrive 1INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2TD18 plays · 55 yds · 12:0893% → 91%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
91.4%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 4 yds to the Charl 49Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+5
91.2%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Grant DuBose, broken up by Deonte Grier GARDNER-WEBB Penalty, off-side (Janathian Turner) to the GrdWb 46Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
91.4%
Chris Reynolds pass incomplete to Cameron Dollar, broken up by AJ ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 3Uncategorized4 plays · 0 yds · 11:307% → 9%
Q1 8:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-6
92.7%
Bailey Fisher sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the GrdWb 19 GARDNER-WEBB Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) to the GrdWb 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 4FG8 plays · 11 yds · 8:318% → 10%
Q1 0:00
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
89.3%
Bailey Fisher pass incomplete to T.J. Luther, broken up by Jonathan AlexanderSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
89.1%
Bailey Fisher pass incomplete to Justin Jordan, broken up by Solomon RogersSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-4
89.1%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Donovan Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the Charl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 5TD14 plays · 86 yds · 1:3292% → 92%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
91.3%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Grant DuBose for 8 yds to the Charl 22Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+9
91.7%
Shadrick Byrd run for 4 yds to the GrdWb 10 for a 1ST down GARDNER-WEBB Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (William McRainey) to the GrdWb 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 6DOWNS12 plays · 62 yds · 15:008% → 11%
CLTDrive 7INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8TD6 plays · 87 yds · 9:4295% → 95%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
94.5%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Elijah Spencer for 11 yds to the Charl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
94.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Calvin Camp for 4 yds to the GrdWb 9Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+8
94.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Taylor Thompson for 8 yds Chris Reynolds fumbled, recovered by Charl Calvin Camp for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 9TD7 plays · 75 yds · 7:4710% → 11%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
91.0%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Justin Franklin for 15 yds to the GrdWb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
89.9%
Bailey Fisher pass incomplete to T.J. Luther, broken up by Shedrick UrserySimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+11
90.1%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Justin Franklin for 11 yds to the Charl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+13
89.2%
Bailey Fisher pass complete to Justin Franklin for 13 yds to the Charl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4395% → 95%
Q2 3:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
95.1%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Jairus Mack for 11 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+28
94.7%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for 28 yds to the GrdWb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
94.9%
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Victor Tucker for a loss of 1 yard to the GrdWb 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 11FUMBLE2 plays · 15 yds · 3:266% → 6%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
93.8%
Narii Gaither run for a loss of 7 yards to the GrdWb 33 Narii Gaither fumbled, recovered by Charl Isaac HamptonSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
94.1%
Bailey Fisher pass incomplete to T.J. Luther, broken up by Lance McMillan for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Lance McMillan) to the GrdWb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 12MISSED FG4 plays · 4 yds · 1:437% → 6%
Q2 0:00
2ND & 14
OPP 26
0
93.4%
Bailey Fisher pass incomplete to Justin Jordan, broken up by Shedrick UrserySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 1:0895% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 15PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 14:176% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16TD6 plays · 63 yds · 10:5298% → 99%
GWEBDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 9:232% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 7:5398% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GWEBDrive 19DOWNS14 plays · 38 yds · 2:332% → 1%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.8%
Bailey Fisher pass incomplete to T.J. Luther, broken up by Shedrick UrserySimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
98.8%
Bailey Fisher pass incomplete to Justin Jordan, broken up by Lance McMillanSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+5
98.8%
Bailey Fisher pass incomplete to Justin Jordan, broken up by Trey Creamer CHARLOTTE Penalty, off-side (Kofi Wardlow) to the Charl 26Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 26
0
98.7%
Bailey Fisher pass incomplete to Darius Hough, broken up by Trey CreamerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20FG9 plays · 62 yds · 15:0099% → 100%
GWEBDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 11:510% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 9:03100% → 100%
GWEBDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 6:400% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 24DOWNS10 plays · 30 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+3
100.0%
James Foster pass complete to Jairus Mack for 3 yds to the GrdWb 32Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+16
100.0%
Chavon McEachern run for 1 yd to the GrdWb 31 for a 1ST down GARDNER-WEBB Penalty, personal foul (Kendall Bailey) to the GrdWb 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
100.0%
James Foster pass complete to Colin Weber for a loss of 2 yards to the GrdWb 18Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 17
-3
100.0%
Chavion Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the GrdWb 20 CHARLOTTE Penalty, Offensive holding (B.J. Ragland) to the GrdWb 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:43
Chris Reynolds pass complete to Jairus Mack for 11 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+5.9
TD · Q2 7:47
Narii Gaither run for 14 yds for a TD (Austin McKay KICK)
-4.8
TD · Q2 9:42
Calvin Camp run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+4.3