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UTM

UT Martin 21 at Western Kentucky 59

WKU
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2021 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadUTM aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreUTM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.2WKU 99.8%Brayden Narveson 30 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 45 · Q3 3:02
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:02 · Brayden Narveson 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 129Pregame prior+17.1Home team on offense+33.4Score differential+25.3Blowout margin+10.7Garbage-time factor+9.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:31: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterens for 22 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +2.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:43: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 8 yds for a TD — WKU win probability +4.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:10: Keon Howard pass complete to Colton Dowell for 27 yds for a TD — UTM win probability +4.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:51: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterens for 7 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +4.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:10: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joshua Simon for 45 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:28UTM 4th & 2 at WKU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    7.3%−0.1
    86% to make
    Punt
    6.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:29UTM 4th & 15 at UTM 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:17WKU 4th & 14 at WKU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:38UTM 4th & 8 at UTM 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:04UTM 4th & 13 at UTM 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.4%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:25UTM 4th & 17 at UTM 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.9%−0.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:49UTM 4th & 5 at UTM 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:08UTM 4th & 4 at WKU 11, down 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:02WKU 4th & 12 at UTM 12, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 5:36UTM 4th & 21 at UTM 38, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    -0.0%−0.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8UTM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:04UTM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:09WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:56WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:31WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:43WKU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:10UTM Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:51WKU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:10WKU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:17WKU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 7:22UTM Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:36WKU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTMDrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:567% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.2%
Keon Howard pass complete to DeVonte Tanksley for 4 yds to the TnMar 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+28
93.2%
Peyton Logan run for 28 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+23
93.2%
Keon Howard pass complete to Colton Dowell for 23 yds to the WKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
93.2%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the WKent 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
0
93.2%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Colton DowellSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 18
+6
93.2%
Keon Howard run for 6 yds to the WKent 12Similar
Q1 12:28
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+6
92.6%
Zak Wallace run for 6 yds to the WKent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
92.5%
Zak Wallace run for 4 yds to the WKent 2Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
92.5%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Colton Dowell, broken up by T.J. SpringerSimilar
Q1 11:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.7%
Keon Howard run for 2 yds for a TD (Tyler Larco KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+16
91.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterens for 16 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
91.9%
Bailey Zappe pass intercepted Jay Woods return for no gain to the TnMar 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
91.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to DeVonte Tanksley for 4 yds to the TnMar 31Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
91.5%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to DeVonte Tanksley, broken up by Omari AlexanderSimilar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 6
OWN 31
-9
91.6%
HOWARD, Keon rush for 10 yards to the UTM41, out-of-bounds (DARVIN, J.), PENALTY UTM holding (MORGAN, Lamar) 9 yards to the UTM22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 15
OWN 22
0
91.6%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 15
OWN 22
+42
91.7%
Tyler Larco punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterens at the WESTERNKY 36 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
91.1%
Adam Cofield run for 3 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+8
91.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 8 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
91.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 6 yds to the TnMar 47Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 4
OPP 47
0
91.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 4
OPP 47
0
91.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 4
OPP 47
-5
91.2%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the WKent 48Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 9
OWN 48
-5
91.1%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the WKent 43Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 14
OWN 43
0
91.0%
John Haggerty III punt for 44 yds, downed at the TnMar 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
90.3%
Timothy Taylor run for 3 yds to the TnMar 16Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+6
90.3%
Timothy Taylor run for 6 yds to the TnMar 22Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+6
90.2%
Keon Howard run for 6 yds to the TnMar 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
90.2%
HOWARD, Keon pass incomplete to DOWELL, Colton, PENALTY WKU pass interference (ZAUBI, D.) 15 yards to the UTM43, 1ST DOWN UTM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
90.0%
Peyton Logan run for 2 yds to the TnMar 45Similar
Q1 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
90.0%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to DeVonte TanksleySimilar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
90.1%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
90.3%
Tyler Larco punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterens at the WKent 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:4189% → 90%
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.0%
Adam Cofield run for 2 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+73
90.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 73 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
90.1%
Keon Howard pass complete to Peyton Logan for a loss of 4 yards to the TnMar 20Similar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+6
90.2%
Keon Howard pass complete to Jordan Castleberry for 6 yds to the TnMar 26Similar
Q1 4:04
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
90.2%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Colton DowellSimilar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 8
OWN 26
-5
90.4%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the TnMar 21Similar
Q1 4:04
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
90.4%
Tyler Larco punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterens at the WKent 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 2:3690% → 91%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
90.2%
Adam Cofield run for 4 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+10
90.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Daewood Davis for 10 yds to the TnMar 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+40
90.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 40 yds to the TnMar 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
90.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for a loss of 4 yards to the TnMar 5Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
90.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Kendall Abdurrahman for a loss of 5 yards to the TnMar 10Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
91.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 10 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 9FUMBLE
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
90.8%
Timothy Taylor run for 10 yds to the TnMar 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
90.7%
Keon Howard pass complete to Donnell Williams for 7 yds to the TnMar 42Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+1
90.4%
Timothy Taylor run for 1 yd to the TnMar 43Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+4
90.5%
Keon Howard run for 4 yds to the TnMar 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
90.4%
Keon Howard pass complete to Donnell Williams for 2 yds to the TnMar 49Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
90.3%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+15
90.6%
HOWARD, Keon pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Donne (WILLIAMS, D.), PENALTY WKU pass interference (WILLIAMS, D.) 15 yards to the WKU36, 1ST DOWN UTM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
90.3%
Zak Wallace run for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 41 Zak Wallace fumbled, recovered by WKent Will IgnontSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:4091% → 94%
Q2 12:11
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+14
90.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 14 yds to the TnMar 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
91.1%
Adam Cofield run for 1 yd to the TnMar 42Similar
Q2 12:11
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+16
91.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterens for 16 yds to the TnMar 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
90.9%
Adam Cofield run for 2 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
91.2%
Adam Cofield run for 4 yds to the TnMar 22Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+22
93.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterens for 22 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-4
92.7%
Keon Howard run for a loss of 4 yards to the TnMar 22Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+10
92.8%
Keon Howard run for 10 yds to the TnMar 32Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 4
OWN 32
-10
92.7%
HOWARD, Keon rush for 4 yards to the UTM36 (JONES, J.;CAIN, D.), PENALTY UTM holding 10 yards to the UTM22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 14
OWN 22
-3
92.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to DeVonte Tanksley for a loss of 3 yards to the TnMar 19Similar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 17
OWN 19
+7
92.9%
Tyler Larco punt for 67 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 11 , Jerreth Sterens returns for 7 yds to the WKent 26 WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, illegal block (Adam Cofield) to the WKent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12TD
14 plays · 79 yds · 4:5893% → 98%
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
92.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the WKent 15Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+7
92.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 7 yds to the WKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
93.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterens for no gain to the WKent 22Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
92.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Daewood DavisSimilar
Q2 6:41
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+5
92.8%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+36
92.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterens for 36 yds to the TnMar 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
93.4%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the TnMar 31Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+6
93.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the TnMar 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
93.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 5 yds to the TnMar 20Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+3
93.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 3 yds to the TnMar 17Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+9
93.3%
Adam Cofield run for 9 yds to the TnMar 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
93.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jerreth SterensSimilar
Q2 1:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
97.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 8 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 13TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 1:273% → 8%
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
96.7%
Peyton Logan run for 3 yds to the TnMar 18Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+31
96.7%
Peyton Logan run for 31 yds to the TnMar 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
96.5%
Keon Howard pass complete to Colton Dowell for 15 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
96.3%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+9
96.3%
Jordan Castleberry run for 9 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+27
91.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Colton Dowell for 27 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
93.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:0993% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
93.4%
Adam Cofield run for 10 yds to the TnMar 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+21
93.4%
Bailey Zappe run for 21 yds to the TnMar 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-6
93.4%
Malachi Corley run for a loss of 6 yards to the TnMar 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 28
+21
93.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 21 yds to the TnMar 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
97.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterens for 7 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
97.0%
Timothy Taylor run for 5 yds to the TnMar 20Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 5
OWN 20
0
96.9%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to DeVonte TanksleySimilar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
97.0%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Colton DowellSimilar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+24
97.0%
Tyler Larco punt for 51 yds , Jerreth Sterens returns for 24 yds to the TnMar 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:4898% → 99%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
97.6%
Adam Cofield run for 2 yds to the TnMar 45Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+45
99.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joshua Simon for 45 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:021% → 1%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.4%
Zak Wallace run for 5 yds to the TnMar 30Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
99.4%
Keon Howard pass complete to Colton Dowell for 16 yds to the TnMar 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
99.4%
Peyton Logan run for 5 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+32
99.4%
Keon Howard pass complete to Donnell Williams for 32 yds to the WKent 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.3%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Colton DowellSimilar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+6
99.3%
Keon Howard pass complete to Colton Dowell for 6 yds to the WKent 11Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 4
OPP 11
0
99.3%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to DeVonte TanksleySimilar
Q3 8:08
4TH & 4
OPP 11
+28
99.3%
Tyler Larco 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 5:06100% → 100%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the WKent 23Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+14
99.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 14 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
99.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterens for 10 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
99.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+15
99.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to C.J. Jones for 15 yds to the TnMar 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
99.6%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to BURT JR, C., PENALTY UTM pass interference off-setting, PENALTY WKU ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for no gain to the TnMar 36Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
99.6%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the TnMar 30Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & 4
OPP 30
+20
99.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ben Ratzlaff for 20 yds to the TnMar 10 for a 1ST down TENN MARTIN Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to C.J. JonesSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
99.6%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Rusty Staats) to the TnMar 15Similar
Q3 8:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+3
99.6%
Bailey Zappe run for 3 yds to the TnMar 12Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
99.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Malachi CorleySimilar
Q3 3:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+30
99.8%
Brayden Narveson 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 20INT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Donnell WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Peyton Logan, broken up by Lichon TerrellSimilar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.8%
Keon Howard run for 11 yds to the TnMar 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
99.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to DeVonte Tanksley for 2 yds to the TnMar 38 TENN MARTIN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 3:02
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+21
99.8%
Keon Howard pass complete to Donnell Williams for 21 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-23
99.8%
Keon Howard pass intercepted Miguel Edwards return for 23 yds to the WKent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21TD
5 plays · 57 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
99.8%
ZAPPE, B. pass incomplete to DAVIS, D. (WOODS, Jay), PENALTY UTM pass interference (WOODS, Jay) 16 yards to the UTM41, 1ST DOWN WKU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.8%
Adam Cofield run for 3 yds to the TnMar 38Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+25
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joshua Simon for 25 yds to the TnMar 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
99.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 10 yds to the TnMar 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joshua Simon for 3 yds for a TD Timeout WESTRN KENTUCKY, clock 14:17 (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 22TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:540% → 0%
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Peyton Logan for 4 yds to the TnMar 29Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
99.9%
Peyton Logan run for 4 yds to the TnMar 33Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
99.8%
Peyton Logan run for 2 yds to the TnMar 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
Keon Howard run for 5 yds to the TnMar 40Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
99.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Donnell Williams for 6 yds to the TnMar 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
99.9%
HOWARD, Keon pass incomplete to DOWELL, Colton (WILLIAMS, D.), PENALTY WKU holding (WILLIAMS, D.) 10 yards to the WKU44, 1ST DOWN UTM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.9%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.9%
Zak Wallace run for 2 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+4
99.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Donnell Williams for 4 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+4
99.8%
HOWARD, Keon pass incomplete to DOWELL, Colton (EDWARDS, M.), PENALTY WKU pass interference (EDWARDS, M.) 4 yards to the WKU34, 1ST DOWN UTM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.8%
Keon Howard run for 4 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q4 14:16
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+23
99.8%
Jordan Castleberry run for 23 yds to the WKent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.8%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
99.8%
Keon Howard run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 9Similar
Q4 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Keon Howard run for 9 yds for a TD (Tyler Larco KICK) WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the WKent 40Similar
Q4 7:22
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+3
99.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
99.9%
Kye Robichaux run for 3 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
99.9%
Carson Baker pass complete to Craig Burt Jr. for 54 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 24PUNT
12 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Jordan Castleberry run for 5 yds to the TnMar 30Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
99.9%
JOHNSON, Jariou rush for no gain to the UTM30 (BRAGG, M.;MARTIN, B.), PENALTY UTM holding (SHANAHAN, Micha) 10 yards to the UTM20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+15
99.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Colton Dowell for 15 yds to the TnMar 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Colton DowellSimilar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Jordan Castleberry run for 6 yds to the TnMar 41Similar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+8
99.9%
Keon Howard pass complete to Donnell Williams for 8 yds to the TnMar 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Keon Howard pass incomplete to Donnell WilliamsSimilar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-4
99.9%
CASTLEBERRY, Jo rush for 12 yards to the WKU39, out-of-bounds (STAPLES, M.), PENALTY UTM holding (JACKSON, Chris) 4 yards to the UTM45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 14
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Keon Howard pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:36
3RD & 14
OWN 45
-7
99.9%
Keon Howard sacked by Michael Pitts for a loss of 7 yards to the TnMar 38Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 21
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Tyler Larco punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterens at the WKent 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
100.0%
Jakairi Moses run for 5 yds to the WKent 13Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+4
100.0%
Jakairi Moses run for 4 yds to the WKent 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:10
Keon Howard pass complete to Colton Dowell for 27 yds for a TD
-4.5
TD · Q3 12:51
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterens for 7 yds for a TD (Brayden Narveson KICK)
+4.1
TD · Q2 1:43
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 8 yds for a TD
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com