Try the model
UTSA

UTSA 37 at Illinois 30

ILL
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGFGFGTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:28 · Lucas Dean punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense−0.1Pregame prior+10.7Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential−0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:46: Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daniel Barker for 14 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +12.5 pts (now 61%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:47: Hunter Duplessis 28 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +10.6 pts (now 55%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:37: Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 19 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +20.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:56: Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daniel Barker for 15 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK) — ILL win probability +23.0 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 4:57: Brenden Brady run for 33 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK) — UTSA win probability +24.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:59UTSA 4th & 15 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:22ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:28UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:12ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:14ILL 4th & 14 at ILL 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.4%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:24UTSA 4th & 3 at ILL 15, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.5%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−6.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:48UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:47UTSA 4th & 11 at ILL 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−6.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:51ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:22ILL 4th & 8 at UTSA 34, down 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.1%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:37UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 28, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−1.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:58ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 37, down 3
    Close callPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:19UTSA 4th & 9 at ILL 9, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−13.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:15ILL 4th & 5 at UTSA 35, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.4%−1.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−3.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:55ILL 4th & 6 at UTSA 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−1.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−4.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:31UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:00ILL 4th & 3 at UTSA 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    12.1%−6.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−9.7
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:00ILL 4th & 25 at UTSA 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    5.8%−2.6
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:32UTSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:31UTSA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:21ILL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:46ILL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:37UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:56ILL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:57UTSA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:0138% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
62.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
62.1%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+16
62.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 16 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
62.1%
Frank Harris run for 11 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
62.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 6 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+5
62.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-6
62.1%
Frank Harris sacked by Keith Randolph Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:59
4TH & 15
50
0
62.1%
Lucas Dean punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 2:3762% → 62%
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
62.0%
Jakari Norwood run for 6 yds to the Illin 18Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+18
62.0%
Jakari Norwood run for 18 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
62.1%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+8
62.0%
Artur Sitkowski run for 8 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q1 11:59
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
62.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
61.9%
Blake Hayes punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5438% → 38%
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
62.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+7
62.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the TexSA 11Similar
Q1 9:22
3RD & 3
OWN 11
0
62.1%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Leroy WatsonSimilar
Q1 8:28
4TH & 3
OWN 11
0
62.2%
Lucas Dean punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Donny Navarro III at the Illin 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4PUNT
3 plays · 4 yds · 2:1662% → 62%
Q1 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
62.3%
Jakari Norwood run for 3 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q1 8:28
2ND & 13
OWN 39
+10
61.9%
Mike Epstein run for 10 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
61.5%
Blake Hayes punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5TD
14 plays · 94 yds · 4:4038% → 45%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
61.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 6 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 4
OWN 12
+1
61.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 11Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 5
OWN 11
+15
62.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 15 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
61.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 20 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
60.8%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
61.0%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 6
50
+14
60.8%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 14 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
60.7%
Sincere McCormick run for 3 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
60.3%
Frank Harris pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+17
60.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 17 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
59.8%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
59.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
54.8%
Frank Harris run for 9 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:1856% → 55%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q1 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
56.4%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q1 1:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
55.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q1 0:27
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-5
55.2%
Hayes,Blake punt 62 yards to the UTS12 PENALTY ILL Illegal Formation 5 yards from ILL26 to ILL21. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
55.0%
Blake Hayes punt for 56 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7TD
9 plays · 61 yds · 3:2946% → 56%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
54.3%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 3 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
54.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tre'Von Bradley for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
54.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+8
53.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 8 yds to the Illin 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
53.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the Illin 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+1
53.9%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the Illin 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+25
54.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 25 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
53.7%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the Illin 7Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
43.7%
Brenden Brady run for 7 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1046% → 56%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
45.9%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamal Ligon) to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
47.2%
Joshua McCray run for 4 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+5
47.3%
Joshua McCray run for 5 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+1
47.3%
Mike Epstein run for 1 yd to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
56.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Deuce Spann for 31 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 2:5748% → 55%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
52.5%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 13 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
51.1%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
51.3%
PENALTY ILL Offside (Carney, Jr.,Owen) 5 yards from UTS39 to UTS44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+15
50.9%
Harris,Frank pass incomplete to Franklin,Zakhari PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Witherspoon,Devon) 15 yards from UTS44 to ILL41, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
50.5%
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds to the Illin 32Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+10
50.2%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 10 yds to the Illin 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
50.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 6 yds to the Illin 16Similar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 4
OPP 16
+1
50.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the Illin 15Similar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
50.6%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
45.3%
Hunter Duplessis 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3847% → 61%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
46.5%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+14
45.6%
Artur Sitkowski run for 14 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
47.8%
Artur Sitkowski run for 1 yd to the Illin 40Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+24
47.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 24 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
48.7%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+18
50.0%
Reggie Love III run for 18 yds to the TexSA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
61.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daniel Barker for 14 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:5845% → 44%
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.4%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
56.1%
Frank Harris pass complete to Sincere McCormick for 1 yd to the TexSA 22Similar
Q2 2:06
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+7
56.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q2 1:48
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
55.7%
Lucas Dean punt for 43 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12FG
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:47
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
45.0%
Hunter Duplessis 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:4747% → 49%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
47.2%
Mike Epstein run for 17 yds to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
49.1%
Sitkowski,Artur rush for 0 yards to the ILL42 (Harmanson,Trevor) PENALTY ILL Holding (Lowe,Vederian) 10 yards from ILL42 to ILL32. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+10
47.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 10 yds to the Illin 42Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
48.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Mike Epstein for 4 yds to the Illin 46Similar
Q2 0:47
3RD & 2
OWN 46
0
49.2%
PENALTY ILL UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting UTS UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+9
48.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 9 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:0949% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
49.3%
Jakari Norwood run for 5 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
51.4%
Joshua McCray run for 1 yd to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+7
49.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 7 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
51.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
50.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
49.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
46.4%
Blake Hayes punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Sheldon Jones at the TexSA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:0355% → 58%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
45.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 13 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
44.3%
Brenden Brady run for 5 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+1
43.3%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 4
OWN 33
0
44.3%
Harris,Frank pass incomplete to Franklin,Zakhari PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Witherspoon,Devon) 1 yard from UTS33 to UTS34, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
43.8%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+1
42.1%
Frank Harris run for 1 yd to the TexSA 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:2651% → 53%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
50.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daniel Barker for 6 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+4
52.2%
Artur Sitkowski run for 4 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
50.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+52
52.9%
James McCourt 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4550% → 48%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.8%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
49.4%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
50.9%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Joshua CephusSimilar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
52.0%
Lucas Dean punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3952% → 50%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
52.2%
Joshua McCray run for 3 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 8:37
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
52.6%
Mike Epstein run for 5 yds to the Illin 39Similar
Q3 8:37
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+2
54.2%
Mike Epstein run for 2 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q3 6:58
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
50.2%
Blake Hayes punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexSA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19FG
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3951% → 63%
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
49.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+13
47.4%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 13 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
47.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 7 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+7
46.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
45.6%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+37
45.7%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 37 yds to the Illin 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
44.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Tre'Von Bradley for 2 yds to the Illin 6Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
44.0%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the Illin 9Similar
Q3 6:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
46.0%
Frank Harris pass incomplete to Zakhari FranklinSimilar
Q3 3:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
36.8%
Hunter Duplessis 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20FG
12 plays · 30 yds · 4:0443% → 53%
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
42.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 6 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+4
45.9%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
45.4%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
46.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q3 3:19
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+13
43.0%
Sitkowski,Artur pass incomplete to Navarro,Donny, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY UTS Pass Interference (Robinson,Ken) 13 yards from ILL47 to UTS40, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
47.0%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the TexSA 40Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-10
46.8%
Sitkowski,Artur pass incomplete to Spann,Deuce broken up by Mayfield Jr.,Corey PENALTY ILL Holding (Jeresaty,Blake) 10 yards from UTS40 to UTS50. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 20
50
+4
43.6%
Mike Epstein run for 4 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 46
+11
42.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 11 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+53
52.5%
James McCourt 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3854% → 80%
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.9%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+43
45.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to De'Corian Clark for 43 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
40.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the Illin 24Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
40.2%
Sincere McCormick run for 5 yds to the Illin 19Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+19
19.9%
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 19 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4124% → 54%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
23.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daniel Barker for 27 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
27.5%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Targeting (15 Yards) to the TexSA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
30.6%
Reggie Love III run for 1 yd to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+12
30.2%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daniel Barker for 12 yds to the TexSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
30.6%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
53.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daniel Barker for 15 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:5962% → 91%
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 9 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
36.1%
Sincere McCormick run for 2 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
36.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 4 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+6
34.8%
Sincere McCormick run for 6 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
34.6%
Sincere McCormick run for 7 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+2
33.7%
Brenden Brady run for 2 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 9:56
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
34.1%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
33.9%
Frank Harris run for 3 yds to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+5
34.0%
Frank Harris pass complete to Joshua Cephus for 5 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+33
9.4%
Brenden Brady run for 33 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 24FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 2:5611% → 19%
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
11.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+8
11.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+7
11.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Reggie Love III for 7 yds to the Illin 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
12.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Casey Washington for 4 yds to the Illin 45Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
12.8%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Reggie Love IIISimilar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+8
12.1%
Artur Sitkowski run for 8 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
13.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Reggie Love IIISimilar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
13.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Luke Ford for 5 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+8
13.7%
Artur Sitkowski run for 8 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
16.3%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Casey Washington for 16 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
17.0%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the TexSA 14Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
17.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Donny Navarro IIISimilar
Q4 4:51
3RD & 6
OPP 14
0
15.0%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
19.1%
James McCourt 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:2490% → 93%
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
10.0%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
6.4%
Sincere McCormick run for no gain to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
6.3%
Sincere McCormick run for 1 yd to the TexSA 27Similar
Q4 1:31
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
6.7%
Lucas Dean punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 26DOWNS
14 plays · 35 yds · 1:3112% → 9%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
11.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
11.7%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Reggie Love IIISimilar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+25
10.9%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 25 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
15.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 14 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
19.5%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+7
16.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Donny Navarro III for 7 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 3
OPP 19
0
16.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 3
OPP 19
+4
15.1%
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 4 yds to the TexSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
19.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
19.4%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Daniel BarkerSimilar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
-15
14.5%
Sitkowski,Artur pass incomplete to Navarro,Donny PENALTY ILL Pass Interference (Ford,Luke) 15 yards from UTS15 to UTS30. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 25
OPP 30
0
11.5%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 25
OPP 30
0
8.6%
Artur Sitkowski pass incomplete to Casey WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:57
Brenden Brady run for 33 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
-24.6
TD · Q4 9:56
Artur Sitkowski pass complete to Daniel Barker for 15 yds for a TD, (James McCourt KICK)
+23
TD · Q4 12:37
Frank Harris pass complete to Zakhari Franklin for 19 yds for a TD, (Hunter Duplessis KICK)
-20.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com