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BCU

Bethune-Cookman 28 at UTEP 38

UTEP
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadBCU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreBCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Calvin Brownholtz run for 2 yds to the BthCk 9 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior+12.6Home team on offense+6.5Garbage-time factor+0.6Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Blowout margin−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 13:33: Shannon Patrick pass complete to Marcus Riley for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK) — BCU win probability +10.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: BCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:31: Shannon Patrick pass complete to Kemari Averett for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK) — BCU win probability +16.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 12:59: Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +8.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:44: Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 8 yds for a TD pass incomplete (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +8.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:15: Ronald Awatt run for 19 yds for a TD — UTEP win probability +8.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 4 of 7BCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 12:46BCU 4th & 1 at BCU 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:43UTEP 4th & 4 at BCU 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    89.0%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:13UTEP 4th & 5 at BCU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    88.2%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:44BCU 4th & 17 at BCU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:39UTEP 4th & 2 at BCU 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    86.3%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    85.0%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:55BCU 4th & 3 at UTEP 43, down 10
    Close callPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:50UTEP 4th & 11 at BCU 33, up 10
    Close callPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:25BCU 4th & 25 at BCU 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:34UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 10, up 10
    Close callPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:35BCU 4th & 7 at BCU 49, down 10
    Close callPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:29UTEP 4th & 15 at BCU 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.0%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00UTEP 4th & 1 at BCU 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    73.1%−3.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−13.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 0:39UTEP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 13:33BCU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:31BCU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 12:59UTEP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:28BCU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:17BCU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BCUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1410% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
90.4%
Que'shaun Byrd run for 4 yds to the BthCk 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
90.4%
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 5 yds to the BthCk 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
90.4%
LaDerrien Wilson run for no gain to the BthCk 34Similar
Q1 12:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-4
89.9%
Ben Lennon punt for 38 yds , Justin Garrett returns for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT
1 play · 31 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 9:43
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
89.1%
Joshua Sloan punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3FG
2 plays · 5 yds · 1:3089% → 89%
Q1 9:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
89.2%
Gavin Hardison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
88.9%
Gavin Baechle 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 4PUNT
2 plays · 15 yds · 2:2911% → 12%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.9%
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 6 yds to the BthCk 31Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & 17
OWN 40
0
88.4%
Ben Lennon punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Justin Garrett at the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5DOWNS TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 5:0589% → 89%
Q1 5:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
88.6%
run for 3 yds to the BthCk 1Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
88.4%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the BthCk 2Similar
Q1 0:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.7%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Trent Thompson for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:0512% → 12%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.5%
Que'shaun Byrd run for 3 yds to the BthCk 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+22
88.4%
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Kemari Averett for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
88.0%
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Marcus Riley for 9 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-2
87.8%
Que'shaun Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 43
0
88.0%
Shannon Patrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 3
OPP 43
0
88.2%
Ben Lennon punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT
3 plays · 42 yds · 4:0588% → 88%
Q2 12:55
2ND & 21
OWN 30
+21
88.3%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Ronald Awatt for 21 yds to the BthCk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 21
OWN 30
0
88.3%
Gavin Hardison pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:50
4TH & 11
OPP 33
0
87.5%
Joshua Sloan punt for 11 yds, downed at the BthCk 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 3:2513% → 12%
Q2 8:50
2ND & 9
OPP 49
-10
87.3%
#35 A.Thompson rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the UTE43 (#5 D.Inyang), score nullified by penalty. PENALTY BCU Illegal Block in the Back on #11 J.Thomas enforced 10 yards from the UTE42 to the BCU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
87.7%
Shannon Patrick pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 17
OWN 43
0
88.1%
Shannon Patrick sacked by Keenan Stewart for 0 yards to the BthCk 35Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 12
OWN 48
-5
87.9%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Delay Of Game (Que'shaun Byrd) to the BthCk 43Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 25
OWN 35
0
88.5%
Ben Lennon punt for 61 yds, downed at the UTEP 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 3:34
4TH & 2
OWN 10
-4
86.7%
Joshua Sloan punt for 40 yds , Marcus Riley returns for a loss of 4 yards to the BthCk 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 10PUNT
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 1:35
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
87.8%
Ben Lennon punt for 35 yds, downed at the UTEP 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT
1 play · 37 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 0:29
4TH & 15
OPP 47
0
87.4%
Joshua Sloan punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+8
87.7%
LaDerrien Wilson run for 8 yds to the BthCk 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
88.1%
Gavin Hardison sacked for 0 yards to the UTEP 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 14TD
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0623% → 19%
Q3 13:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
77.2%
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Marcus Riley for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK)Similar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
81.5%
QB Keeper #12 G.Hardison rush for a gain of 5 yards to the UTE33 (#19 T.Thomas), score nullified by penalty. PENALTY UTE Holding on #76 D.Lee enforced 10 yards from the UTE28 to the UTE18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15TD
3 plays · 82 yds · 6:4683% → 89%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
82.8%
Willie Eldridge run for 15 yds to the BthCk 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
83.6%
run for a loss of 1 yard to the BthCk 28 Reynaldo Flores fumbled, recovered by UTEP Reynaldo FloresSimilar
Q3 6:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.2%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Offsides (Andreas Wyatt) to the BthCk 0 (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 16TD
1 play · 89 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 3:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
73.0%
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Kemari Averett for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 2:0180% → 89%
Q3 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+3
79.5%
Ronald Awatt run for 3 yds to the BthCk 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+2
78.2%
run for 2 yds to the BthCk 11Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+2
76.7%
Calvin Brownholtz run for 2 yds to the BthCk 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
79.5%
Ronald Awatt run for 3 yds to the BthCk 6Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
81.7%
Ronald Awatt run for no gain to the BthCk 6Similar
Q4 12:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.1%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
89.3%
#10 S.Patrick pass incomplete dropped by #2 M.Riley thrown to the BCU39, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY UTE Pass Interference on #22 J.Caldwell enforced 15 yards from the BCU25 to the BCU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 18INT
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 11:59
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+15
88.6%
UTEP Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Torey Richardson) to the BthCk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19TD
1 play · 49 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 10:44
2ND & 6
OPP 8
0
97.4%
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 8 yds for a TD pass incomplete (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 20TD
1 play · 87 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 5:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.9%
Que'shaun Byrd run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21TD
1 play · 50 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 2:15
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+19
98.0%
Ronald Awatt run for 19 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 22TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.6%
Aaron Thompson run for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:31
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Kemari Averett for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK)
-16.3
TD · Q3 13:33
Shannon Patrick pass complete to Marcus Riley for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK)
-10.9
TD · Q4 10:44
Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 8 yds for a TD pass incomplete (Gavin Baechle KICK)
+8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com