Bethune-Cookman at UTEP (28-38)

BCU

Bethune-Cookman 28 at UTEP 38

UTEP

2021 · Week 1 · Sep 4, 2021 · Sun Bowl

Speed4x

View as

Download image

Win probability · UTEP

modelUTEP aheadBCU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreBCU score

What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went

Q1 8:13 · Gavin Baechle 22 yd FG GOOD

Driver values - Δ win prob, pts

Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin

This game in five plays

TD · Q3 13:33: Shannon Patrick pass complete to Marcus Riley for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK) — BCU win probability +10.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: BCU has the ball).
TD · Q3 3:31: Shannon Patrick pass complete to Kemari Averett for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK) — BCU win probability +16.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
TD · Q4 12:59: Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +8.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
TD · Q4 10:44: Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 8 yds for a TD pass incomplete (Gavin Baechle KICK) — UTEP win probability +8.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
TD · Q4 2:15: Ronald Awatt run for 19 yds for a TD — UTEP win probability +8.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).

Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs

UTEP made the numbers' call on 4 of 7BCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5

Q1 12:46BCU 4th & 1 at BCU 34, tied
Close callPunted · 10.1% before the snap
Go for it
10.1%
71% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
10.0%−0.1
average punt
Q1 9:43UTEP 4th & 4 at BCU 45, tied
Close callPunted · 89.1% before the snap
Go for it
89.2%
48% to convert
Field goal
89.0%−0.1
25% to make
PuntTheir call
89.1%−0.1
average punt
Q1 8:13UTEP 4th & 5 at BCU 5, tied
Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
Go for it
88.7%−<0.1
33% to convert
Field goalTheir call
88.7%
92% to make
Punt
88.2%−0.5
average punt
Q1 5:44BCU 4th & 17 at BCU 40, down 3
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
Go for it
11.3%−0.3
14% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
11.6%
average punt
Q1 0:39UTEP 4th & 2 at BCU 2, up 3
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.7% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
86.7%
48% to convert
Field goal
86.3%−0.3
94% to make
Punt
85.0%−1.7
average punt
Q2 12:55BCU 4th & 3 at UTEP 43, down 10
Close callPunted · 11.8% before the snap
Go for it
12.0%
52% to convert
Field goal
11.3%−0.7
28% to make
PuntTheir call
11.6%−0.4
average punt
Q2 8:50UTEP 4th & 11 at BCU 33, up 10
Close callPunted · 87.6% before the snap
Go for it
87.3%−0.3
27% to convert
Field goal
87.6%
49% to make
PuntTheir call
87.2%−0.4
average punt
Q2 5:25BCU 4th & 25 at BCU 35, down 10
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
Go for it
10.4%−1.1
7% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
11.5%
average punt
Q2 3:34UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 10, up 10
Close callPunted · 86.7% before the snap
Go for it
86.7%
56% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
86.4%−0.3
average punt
Q2 1:35BCU 4th & 7 at BCU 49, down 10
Close callPunted · 12.2% before the snap
Go for it
11.9%
37% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
11.9%−<0.1
average punt
Q2 0:29UTEP 4th & 15 at BCU 47, up 10
Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
Go for it
87.0%−0.3
17% to convert
Field goal
Out of range
PuntTheir call
87.4%
average punt
Q4 15:00UTEP 4th & 1 at BCU 11, up 3
Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.7% before the snap
Go for itTheir call
76.3%
71% to convert
Field goal
73.1%−3.2
87% to make
Punt
62.8%−13.5
average punt

After touchdowns: kick or go for two?

UTEP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4

Q1 0:39UTEP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
89.1%
97% to make
Go for two
89.0%−<0.1
45% to convert
Q3 13:33BCU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
19.2%
97% to make
Go for two
19.1%−0.1
45% to convert
Q3 3:31BCU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
21.4%
97% to make
Go for two
21.3%−0.1
45% to convert
Q4 12:59UTEP Touchdown, up 9 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
90.1%
97% to make
Go for two
90.0%−0.2
45% to convert
Q4 5:28BCU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
6.9%
97% to make
Go for two
6.4%−0.5
45% to convert
Q4 1:17BCU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
KickTheir call
4.9%
97% to make
Go for two
4.5%−0.4
45% to convert

Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump

Download drive chart

BCUDrive 1PUNT

4 plays · 9 yds · 2:1410% → 10%

Q1 15:00

1ST & 10

OWN 25

90.4%

Que'shaun Byrd run for 4 yds to the BthCk 29Similar

Q1 15:00

2ND & 6

OWN 29

90.4%

Shannon Patrick pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 5 yds to the BthCk 34Similar

Q1 15:00

3RD & 1

OWN 34

90.4%

LaDerrien Wilson run for no gain to the BthCk 34Similar

Q1 12:46

4TH & 1

OWN 34

-4

89.9%

Ben Lennon punt for 38 yds , Justin Garrett returns for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 24Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

UTEPDrive 2PUNT

1 play · 31 yds · 0:0089% → 89%

Q1 9:43

4TH & 4

OPP 45

89.1%

Joshua Sloan punt for 35 ydsSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

UTEPDrive 3FG

2 plays · 5 yds · 1:3089% → 89%

Q1 9:43

3RD & GOAL

OPP 5

89.2%

Gavin Hardison pass incompleteSimilar

Q1 8:13

4TH & GOAL

OPP 5

+22

88.9%

Gavin Baechle 22 yd FG GOODSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BCUDrive 4PUNT

2 plays · 15 yds · 2:2911% → 12%

Q1 8:13

1ST & 10

OWN 25

88.9%

Shannon Patrick pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 6 yds to the BthCk 31Similar

Q1 5:44

4TH & 17

OWN 40

88.4%

Ben Lennon punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Justin Garrett at the UTEP 22Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

UTEPDrive 5DOWNS TD

3 plays · 78 yds · 5:0589% → 89%

Q1 5:44

2ND & GOAL

OPP 4

88.6%

run for 3 yds to the BthCk 1Similar

Q1 5:44

3RD & GOAL

OPP 1

-1

88.4%

run for a loss of 1 yard to the BthCk 2Similar

Q1 0:39

4TH & GOAL

OPP 2

88.7%

Gavin Hardison pass complete to Trent Thompson for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BCUDrive 6PUNT

6 plays · 32 yds · 2:0512% → 12%

Q1 0:00

1ST & 10

OWN 25

88.5%

Que'shaun Byrd run for 3 yds to the BthCk 28Similar

Q2 15:00

2ND & 7

OWN 28

+22

88.4%

Shannon Patrick pass complete to Kemari Averett for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar

Q2 15:00

1ST & 10

88.0%

Shannon Patrick pass complete to Marcus Riley for 9 yds to the UTEP 41Similar

Q2 15:00

2ND & 1

OPP 41

-2

87.8%

Que'shaun Byrd run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 43Similar

Q2 15:00

3RD & 3

OPP 43

88.0%

Shannon Patrick pass incompleteSimilar

Q2 12:55

4TH & 3

OPP 43

88.2%

Ben Lennon punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

UTEPDrive 7PUNT

3 plays · 42 yds · 4:0588% → 88%

Q2 12:55

2ND & 21

OWN 30

+21

88.3%

Gavin Hardison pass complete to Ronald Awatt for 21 yds to the BthCk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q2 12:55

1ST & 21

OWN 30

88.3%

Gavin Hardison pass incompleteSimilar

Q2 8:50

4TH & 11

OPP 33

87.5%

Joshua Sloan punt for 11 yds, downed at the BthCk 22Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BCUDrive 8PUNT

5 plays · 13 yds · 3:2513% → 12%

Q2 8:50

2ND & 9

OPP 49

-10

87.3%

#35 A.Thompson rush up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the UTE43 (#5 D.Inyang), score nullified by penalty. PENALTY BCU Illegal Block in the Back on #11 J.Thomas enforced 10 yards from the UTE42 to the BCU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar

Q2 8:50

2ND & 12

OWN 48

87.7%

Shannon Patrick pass incompleteSimilar

Q2 6:20

3RD & 17

OWN 43

88.1%

Shannon Patrick sacked by Keenan Stewart for 0 yards to the BthCk 35Similar

Q2 6:20

3RD & 12

OWN 48

-5

87.9%

BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Delay Of Game (Que'shaun Byrd) to the BthCk 43Similar

Q2 5:25

4TH & 25

OWN 35

88.5%

Ben Lennon punt for 61 yds, downed at the UTEP 2 for a 1ST downSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

UTEPDrive 9PUNT

1 play · 8 yds · 0:0087% → 87%

Q2 3:34

4TH & 2

OWN 10

-4

86.7%

Joshua Sloan punt for 40 yds , Marcus Riley returns for a loss of 4 yards to the BthCk 46Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BCUDrive 10PUNT

1 play · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 12%

Q2 1:35

4TH & 7

OWN 49

87.8%

Ben Lennon punt for 35 yds, downed at the UTEP 16Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

UTEPDrive 11PUNT

1 play · 37 yds · 0:0087% → 87%

Q2 0:29

4TH & 15

OPP 47

87.4%

Joshua Sloan punt for 39 ydsSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BCUDrive 12END OF HALF

1 play · 8 yds · 0:0012% → 12%

Q2 0:00

1ST & 10

OWN 8

87.7%

LaDerrien Wilson run for 8 yds to the BthCk 16Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

UTEPDrive 13FUMBLE

1 play · 3 yds · 0:0088% → 88%

Q3 14:15

2ND & 8

OWN 25

88.1%

Gavin Hardison sacked for 0 yards to the UTEP 6Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BCUDrive 14TD

2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0623% → 19%

Q3 13:33

2ND & GOAL

OPP 4

77.2%

Shannon Patrick pass complete to Marcus Riley for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK)Similar

Q3 13:27

1ST & 10

OWN 28

-10

81.5%

QB Keeper #12 G.Hardison rush for a gain of 5 yards to the UTE33 (#19 T.Thomas), score nullified by penalty. PENALTY UTE Holding on #76 D.Lee enforced 10 yards from the UTE28 to the UTE18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

UTEPDrive 15TD

3 plays · 82 yds · 6:4683% → 89%

Q3 13:27

1ST & 10

OWN 46

+15

82.8%

Willie Eldridge run for 15 yds to the BthCk 39 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q3 13:27

1ST & 10

OPP 27

-1

83.6%

run for a loss of 1 yard to the BthCk 28 Reynaldo Flores fumbled, recovered by UTEP Reynaldo FloresSimilar

Q3 6:41

3RD & GOAL

OPP 1

89.2%

BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Offsides (Andreas Wyatt) to the BthCk 0 (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BCUDrive 16TD

1 play · 89 yds · 0:0027% → 27%

Q3 3:31

3RD & GOAL

OPP 7

73.0%

Shannon Patrick pass complete to Kemari Averett for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

UTEPDrive 17TD

7 plays · 83 yds · 2:0180% → 89%

Q3 0:00

2ND & 6

OPP 16

79.5%

Ronald Awatt run for 3 yds to the BthCk 13Similar

Q4 15:00

3RD & 3

OPP 13

78.2%

run for 2 yds to the BthCk 11Similar

Q4 15:00

4TH & 1

OPP 11

76.7%

Calvin Brownholtz run for 2 yds to the BthCk 9 for a 1ST downSimilar

Q4 15:00

1ST & GOAL

OPP 9

79.5%

Ronald Awatt run for 3 yds to the BthCk 6Similar

Q4 13:05

2ND & GOAL

OPP 6

81.7%

Ronald Awatt run for no gain to the BthCk 6Similar

Q4 12:59

3RD & GOAL

OPP 6

90.1%

Gavin Hardison pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds for a TD (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar

Q4 12:59

1ST & 10

OWN 25

+15

89.3%

#10 S.Patrick pass incomplete dropped by #2 M.Riley thrown to the BCU39, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY UTE Pass Interference on #22 J.Caldwell enforced 15 yards from the BCU25 to the BCU40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BCUDrive 18INT

1 play · 2 yds · 0:0011% → 11%

Q4 11:59

3RD & 8

OWN 42

+15

88.6%

UTEP Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Torey Richardson) to the BthCk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

UTEPDrive 19TD

1 play · 49 yds · 0:0097% → 97%

Q4 10:44

2ND & 6

OPP 8

97.4%

Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 8 yds for a TD pass incomplete (Gavin Baechle KICK)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BCUDrive 20TD

1 play · 87 yds · 0:0010% → 10%

Q4 5:28

1ST & GOAL

OPP 2

89.9%

Que'shaun Byrd run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

UTEPDrive 21TD

1 play · 50 yds · 0:0098% → 98%

Q4 2:15

3RD & 12

OPP 19

+19

98.0%

Ronald Awatt run for 19 yds for a TDSimilar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

BCUDrive 22TD

1 play · 75 yds · 0:008% → 8%

Q4 1:17

1ST & GOAL

OPP 3

91.6%

Aaron Thompson run for 3 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK)Similar

own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0

Biggest swings

TD · Q3 3:31

Shannon Patrick pass complete to Kemari Averett for 7 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK)

-16.3

TD · Q3 13:33

Shannon Patrick pass complete to Marcus Riley for 4 yds for a TD (Dylan Moghaddam KICK)

-10.9

TD · Q4 10:44

Gavin Hardison pass complete to Justin Garrett for 8 yds for a TD pass incomplete (Gavin Baechle KICK)

+8.8